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Post by seamus on Aug 3, 2022 14:08:44 GMT -5
Back in May, Dan Syzmborski's ZiPS estimated the remaining value of Devers' career at $225 million. (I don't know exactly how long that was, but I'd imagine anything past about age 35 is negligible.) However, the current economics of the game make it so teams drastically underpay controlled talent and somewhat overpay the veterans who make it to free agency and still have juice in their arm or bat. As such, I have a hard time seeing Devers getting less than the Seager deal (10/325) on the open market, especially since his starting point in the negotiations is probably at least a Lindor-level deal (10/341). He'll be going into his age 27 season and (hopefully) coming off a multi-year stretch as one of the top 5 or so hitters in the game. His fielding seems to have turned a corner such that he should be able to stick at third for at least most of his next contract, and that's valuable enough that I don't see many ways under an AAV of 32+ based on precedent.
I'd go for it because I think he's got a real shot at Cooperstown and could drive quite a few playoff runs over the next decade, which have a value that a strict $/WAR calculation has trouble capturing, and there's value in keeping fun players, but the FO is going to have to buy into some of Raffy's more optimistic projection if they want to meet his likely price. If I was Bloom, I'd probably see if I could get an extension that covers '23 as well for a higher figure than he'd get through arbitration in exchange for a slightly lower overall AAV. Maybe that gets you down to something like Machado's 10/300.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 3, 2022 16:20:13 GMT -5
I don’t see him getting elite SS money. I’d give him like 10/280. 10/300 I’m cool with. Machado is a decent contract comp I think- machado clearly better in the field but I’d rather have Devers at the dish
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Post by seamus on Aug 3, 2022 17:17:02 GMT -5
Free agency is an auction, so it only takes one team believing he IS worth 10/325+ to make that a reality, and I think somebody is likely to say, "Yeah, I think I'm getting a future Hall of Famer who can produce multiple MVP-level seasons and his value isn't dependent on noisy fielding metrics." I agree with you that I'd feel better about something like 10/280, but my instinct is that he'll want - and get - solidly over 300. Another factor: aside from Ohtani, I think he's the best player set to be available in the 2023-2024 free agency period. Not even sure it's all that close, based on the names mentioned in this article from April, though I may be overlooking someone.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 3, 2022 21:55:24 GMT -5
I don’t see him getting elite SS money. I’d give him like 10/280. 10/300 I’m cool with. Machado is a decent contract comp I think- machado clearly better in the field but I’d rather have Devers at the dish Yes I back this 100%. Last nights win is all the needs to remind everyone about Devers . He is our Soto in different ways. He can’t leave. There should not be a reason that he has to go. We’ll never get equal return. Think about the haul Washington got but Soto 23 and already ready. You should never have to trade a guy like that.
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Post by yaz8 on Aug 24, 2022 11:00:11 GMT -5
The only problem I have with Devers is that he's a chunky monkey, and guys like that are more prone to injury and shortened careers. True. Players definitely can't lose the weight especially at 26 so its a risk. The guy who just made the HOF was pretty heavy until the end and was worth every penny. Yeah, all I was getting at was that it's a risk. With salaries what they are today, that risk just becomes amplified.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 18, 2022 20:57:27 GMT -5
Now that Devers has come back to earth a bit, are people still clamoring to give him 300 million?
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 18, 2022 21:10:41 GMT -5
Now that Devers has come back to earth a bit, are people still clamoring to give him 300 million? He came back to earth because he's been playing through an injury most of the second half. He's still a monster at the plate and he's improving defensively. He's only 25. If you want a middle of the order bat for the better part of the next seven years or so, you're going to have to pay up to secure him or else you'd be chasing the next Kiké Hernandez over and over again. The Sox have no bats in the improving farm system that project to do what Devers has already done, so yeah, I'd prefer they hang onto Devers.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Sept 19, 2022 11:00:29 GMT -5
Like anything else it all depends on price. If he is actually looking for a Machado-like contract, then the Red Sox should let him walk. There are too many questions around his defense to give him that sort of money. If they have to move him off the position it would becomes an albatross. If you look through the largest contracts given out to position payers, they are almost always give out to elite hitters that are also premium defenders - Machado, Mookie, Trout, Seager. The only exceptions I can think of are Miguel Cabrera and maybe Harper, but Devers' bat is just not on the same level as those 2. Here are 2 different players career lines, through age 25:
Devers: 2900 PA, .282/.340/.513, 123 wRC+, 18 fWAR Pablo Sandoval: 2311 PA, .303/.353/.490, 126 wRC+, 14.9 fWAR
People forget that Pablo Sandoval was also a very, very good player in his early twenties. And then he fell off a cliff. Now, I think Devers is both a better athlete and hitter than Pablo ever was, so I don't think it's fair to use him as the most likely comp. But if there is even a chance that Devers goes the route of Pablo, and I definitely think the chance is larger than anyone here wants to admit, then I don't know how you can be comfortable giving him that much money.
The extensions that the Red Sox should use as a baseline for him are Matt Olson (8/$170), Austin Riley (10/$210) and Jose Ramirez's (7/$140). Jose Ramirez took a paycut, but he's also older. But if Devers is asking for significantly more, you either trade him or let him walk, and spend the money elsewhere.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Sept 19, 2022 11:08:57 GMT -5
I agree. I don't see much reason as to why a Devers extension should look very different than Riley's contract, unless the relationship with the front office is so fractured and contentious that it necessitates extra money to lock him up. In that case, Bloom would probably let him go anyways. Homie don't play that.
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Post by seamus on Sept 19, 2022 12:18:42 GMT -5
If Austin Riley is the comp, then you'd be looking at something more like 10/250 because Riley had a lot more years of team control left and therefore less leverage. 25 AAV seems a little light, but maybe he'd go with it for a 10+ year so he doesn't reenter free agency before his late 30s. I'd be fine going with something comparable to the Arenado or Machado deals because his down second-half is clearly related to an injury that shouldn't carry over into the future and his defense has been so much better that I think he'll remain at third for a long time. A 140 OPS+ third baseman provides surplus value even at 30 AAV, and I think he's shown that he's got the ability to exceed even that level of performance. At some point, you'll need to pay for some stars, so it's a bit of a bird in the hand situation for me.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 19, 2022 12:31:54 GMT -5
If Austin Riley is the comp, then you'd be looking at something more like 10/250 because Riley had a lot more years of team control left and therefore less leverage. 25 AAV seems a little light, but maybe he'd go with it for a 10+ year so he doesn't reenter free agency before his late 30s. I'd be fine going with something comparable to the Arenado or Machado deals because his down second-half is clearly related to an injury that shouldn't carry over into the future and his defense has been so much better that I think he'll remain at third for a long time. A 140 OPS+ third baseman provides surplus value even at 30 AAV, and I think he's shown that he's got the ability to exceed even that level of performance. At some point, you'll need to pay for some stars, so it's a bit of a bird in the hand situation for me. OPS+ is kind of a weird stat; every bit as graphically ugly as wRC+ but also less informative, insofar as (like OPS) it overvalues SLG and undervalues OBP.
In any case, Devers is at 140 wRC+ for this season, but that is also his career high, and while that is a very good number, I think we are also at the point now - he's almost 26 and is nearly 3000 PAs into his big league career - where we can't really assume there's more improvement to come. And yes, he's probably been battling injuries this season, but also that is just part of a pretty typical baseball season.
Which all leads me to think he's not really a $30 million/year (of which there are, I believe, about 10 in the majors at the moment). I wouldn't complain at all if they gave that to him because he makes funny faces and murders the ball and I like having him around. But I can see why the cost/benefit analysis might not pencil out at that salary.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Sept 19, 2022 12:54:25 GMT -5
Now that Devers has come back to earth a bit, are people still clamoring to give him 300 million? No, give him 400m.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 20, 2022 12:18:40 GMT -5
Looking at his speed metrics, I have some concern regarding Devers' future ability to run the bases well and play adequate defense at third base.
2022: 25.6 - sprint speed (ft/sec) 4.56 - HP to 1B
2017-2021 (individual years in parenthesis): 27.2 (27.9, 27.3, 27.0, 26.5, 26.8) - sprint speed (ft/sec) 4.32 (4.27, 4.31, 4.28, 4.38, 4.38) - HP to 1B
The 1.2 ft/sec sprint speed decrease and 0.18 second HP to 1B from 2021 to 2022 are quite significant for metrics which are very consistent year-to-year (with typical slight declines as the player ages). For comparison, the only Red Sox player who had a greater than 0.4 ft drop-off in sprint speed, or an increase in HP to 1B time of greater than 0.05 seconds, from 2021 to 2022, was Kevin Plawecki (0.6, 0.20) and that's likely due to small sample sizes (67 and 59 competitive runs each year).
Speed isn't part of Devers' game, and he has dealt with some injuries this year, but the loss of speed is worth monitoring as his BsR (base running runs above average) has declined over the past few years (0.2, 2.2, 2.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.0). But more importantly, if his speed continues to decline this quickly he may have to move off of third sooner than expected (despite the strong defensive year).
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Post by e on Sept 20, 2022 12:28:28 GMT -5
Looking at his speed metrics, I have some concern regarding Devers' future ability to run the bases well and play adequate defense at third base. 2022: 25.6 - sprint speed (ft/sec) 4.56 - HP to 1B 2017-2021 (individual years in parenthesis): 27.2 (27.9, 27.3, 27.0, 26.5, 26.8) - sprint speed (ft/sec) 4.32 (4.27, 4.31, 4.28, 4.38, 4.38) - HP to 1B The 1.2 ft/sec sprint speed decrease and 0.18 second HP to 1B from 2021 to 2022 are quite significant for metrics which are very consistent year-to-year (with typical slight declines as the player ages). For comparison, the only Red Sox player who had a greater than 0.4 ft drop-off in sprint speed, or an increase in HP to 1B time of greater than 0.05 seconds, from 2021 to 2022, was Kevin Plawecki (0.6, 0.20) and that's likely due to small sample sizes (67 and 59 competitive runs each year). Speed isn't part of Devers' game, and he has dealt with some injuries this year, but the loss of speed is worth monitoring as his BsR (base running runs above average) has declined over the past few years (0.2, 2.2, 2.3, 0.2, 0.1, 0.0). But more importantly, if his speed continues to decline this quickly he may have to move off of third sooner than expected (despite the strong defensive year). While the large decrease in speed may be concerning, I would say that his sprint speed drop off this year is probably due to injuries. I mean like just watching him out there it looks like he's limping around the bases. Along with that I wouldn't correlate sprint speed to his ability to play a competent third base. Nolan Arenado's sprint speed is 25.4 ft/s this year and he's arguably the best defensive third baseman in baseball.
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