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Post by baseball3 on Nov 29, 2021 19:34:37 GMT -5
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 29, 2021 19:38:40 GMT -5
Starting to think Devers is not long for Boston and will be dealt at some point before becoming a free agent. That would surely bum me out.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2021 19:43:41 GMT -5
Starting to think Devers is not long for Boston and will be dealt at some point before becoming a free agent. That would surely bum me out. As usual, I agree with you. If the Sox have a legit shot at winning they'll play out 2023 with Raffy. If not, you're possibly looking at a Mookie situation, a trade. They'd have to commit well over 300 million to keep Devers and the price goes up every year. Now players are eclipsing the 40 million/year mark. I honestly think the Sox have a much better shot at keeping X. I think the Sox have a 50% chance of keeping X and maybe a 10% chance of retaining Devers. |
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Nov 29, 2021 19:45:10 GMT -5
Starting to think Devers is not long for Boston and will be dealt at some point before becoming a free agent. That would surely bum me out. As usual, I agree with you. If the Sox have a legit shot at winning they'll play out 2023 with Raffy. If not, you're possibly looking at a Mookie situation, a trade. They'd have to commit well over 300 million to keep Devers and the price goes up every year. Now players are eclipsing the 40 million/year mark. I honestly think the Sox have a much better shot at keeping X. I think the Sox have a 50% chance of keeping X and maybe a 10% chance of retaining Devers. If only we were in a huge market or had a rich owner. But like our peer teams the Pirates and the Royals, we just can’t compete with teams like thr Mariners and Rangers. |
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 29, 2021 19:45:52 GMT -5
Now let's follow up his clickbait with his article posted moments later: "It’s likely the sides will broach the topic once the work stoppage ends; extensions are usually a topic of discussion during spring training and the days leading up to Opening Day." |
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 29, 2021 19:48:41 GMT -5
I figured I'd start a thread on it. I don't know if the post above was for me, but I thought it was probably a good time with that article to start one.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2021 19:49:35 GMT -5
As usual, I agree with you. If the Sox have a legit shot at winning they'll play out 2023 with Raffy. If not, you're possibly looking at a Mookie situation, a trade. They'd have to commit well over 300 million to keep Devers and the price goes up every year. Now players are eclipsing the 40 million/year mark. I honestly think the Sox have a much better shot at keeping X. I think the Sox have a 50% chance of keeping X and maybe a 10% chance of retaining Devers. If only we were in a huge market or gad a rich owner. But like our peer teams the Pirates and the Royals, we just can’t compete with teams like thr Mariners and Rangers. The Sox will spend up to the luxury tax limit and in the right situation beyond, but they dont like to allocate their money to the top of the roster. They like to spread it around to the entire roster. None of those teams that just spent money should be printing playoff tickets just yet. That said, I really do hope the Sox extend Devers but I said the same thing about Mookie, who wanted top dollar. I suspect its similar with Devers. |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 29, 2021 19:59:42 GMT -5
If only we were in a huge market or gad a rich owner. But like our peer teams the Pirates and the Royals, we just can’t compete with teams like thr Mariners and Rangers. The Sox will spend up to the luxury tax limit and in the right situation beyond, but they dont like to allocate their money to the top of the roster. They like to spread it around to the entire roster. None of those teams that just spent money should be printing playoff tickets just yet. That said, I really do hope the Sox extend Devers but I said the same thing about Mookie, who wanted top dollar. I suspect its similar with Devers. At some point they're going to have to spend on someone at top dollar. Might as well be Devers and Xander. But more likely than not we'll see a couple years of a pretty low salary number by Red Sox standards while bringing Yorke, Casas and Marcelo Mayer along. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2021 21:06:21 GMT -5
If only we were in a huge market or gad a rich owner. But like our peer teams the Pirates and the Royals, we just can’t compete with teams like thr Mariners and Rangers. The Sox will spend up to the luxury tax limit and in the right situation beyond, but they dont like to allocate their money to the top of the roster. They like to spread it around to the entire roster.None of those teams that just spent money should be printing playoff tickets just yet. That said, I really do hope the Sox extend Devers but I said the same thing about Mookie, who wanted top dollar. I suspect its similar with Devers. So how does the math work here? How do the Red Sox spend $210 million without taking on any really big contracts? Some portion of the roster will be pre-arb and arb guys, so there are only so many roster spots to "spread it around on," and it's virtually impossible to do it without paying someone big money.
They have to pay someone. Bloom has said extending Devers is a top priority for the off-season. And yet you give it only a 10% chance of happening. That doesn't seem reasonable.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 29, 2021 21:30:54 GMT -5
A Devers extension increases his 2022 CBT number by 10-15 million. I don't think it makes much sense to extend him until free agency is over with. If the famously trigger-shy Chaim Bloom can't find enough deals to his liking, then Devers can help them reach their payroll limit. If Chaim is overwhelmed with all the cheap free agency WAR available to him, then maybe he can worry about Devers next year.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2021 21:46:56 GMT -5
A Devers extension increases his 2022 CBT number by 10-15 million. I don't think it makes much sense to extend him until free agency is over with. If the famously trigger-shy Chaim Bloom can't find enough deals to his liking, then Devers can help them reach their payroll limit. If Chaim is overwhelmed with all the cheap free agency WAR available to him, then maybe he can worry about Devers next year. The usual gimmick is to announce it like two days after the season starts, right? No reason to think that's not how they'd do it this time around. |
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Post by RedSoxStats on Nov 29, 2021 21:51:33 GMT -5
A Devers extension increases his 2022 CBT number by 10-15 million. I don't think it makes much sense to extend him until free agency is over with. If the famously trigger-shy Chaim Bloom can't find enough deals to his liking, then Devers can help them reach their payroll limit. If Chaim is overwhelmed with all the cheap free agency WAR available to him, then maybe he can worry about Devers next year. The usual gimmick is to announce it like two days after the season starts, right? No reason to think that's not how they'd do it this time around. That CTB loophole was closed a long time ago, it doesn't matter now, they can sign him this winter and either have 2022 in the calculation or not. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 29, 2021 21:55:46 GMT -5
So, if he signs tonight, the Red Sox get to choose between having his 2022 CBT number be his arb salary, or 1/xth of his total contract?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 29, 2021 22:30:08 GMT -5
So, if he signs tonight, the Red Sox get to choose between having his 2022 CBT number be his arb salary, or 1/xth of his total contract? Yeah - it used to be you had to wait until the season started to incorporate the extension AAV into the contract, but they did away with that a few years ago. |
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Post by incandenza on Nov 29, 2021 22:38:37 GMT -5
The usual gimmick is to announce it like two days after the season starts, right? No reason to think that's not how they'd do it this time around. That CTB loophole was closed a long time ago, it doesn't matter now, they can sign him this winter and either have 2022 in the calculation or not. Oh, okay. Well at any rate I remember Bloom (musta been last season) saying that spring training is nonetheless the time when extensions tend to get worked on. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Nov 29, 2021 22:46:06 GMT -5
Based on arb estimates of 11.1 and 15.6 plus 6 free agent years, I think the Red Sox should be looking at about a 180-200mil/8yr contract for Devers, which would keep him through his age 32 season. If you're Devers, you're likely looking for something closer to 250mil/8yr with an opt-out in there, as this is likely closer to what he could get on the FA market (after accounting for the arb numbers).
That's a monster deal, but it's for his expected peak years, and he's only 2 years from free agency. But this assumes he can be a 3b through age 32, and if that's not the case, the numbers get real muddy. It's a tough extension to negotiate on both side.
Given Devers' body type, which the scouts have always disliked, I'm guessing he doesn't get a 10+ year extension like some of these guys.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 29, 2021 22:52:02 GMT -5
The Sox will spend up to the luxury tax limit and in the right situation beyond, but they dont like to allocate their money to the top of the roster. They like to spread it around to the entire roster.None of those teams that just spent money should be printing playoff tickets just yet. That said, I really do hope the Sox extend Devers but I said the same thing about Mookie, who wanted top dollar. I suspect its similar with Devers. So how does the math work here? How do the Red Sox spend $210 million without taking on any really big contracts? Some portion of the roster will be pre-arb and arb guys, so there are only so many roster spots to "spread it around on," and it's virtually impossible to do it without paying someone big money. They have to pay someone. Bloom has said extending Devers is a top priority for the off-season. And yet you give it only a 10% chance of happening. That doesn't seem reasonable.
I never said the Sox won't do big contracts. I said that I doubt the Sox will dish out top dollar contracts. You know darn well that they were well over the limit in 2018 and 2019 and have dropped just under the past 2 years. The bulk of this is based off old contracts with the biggest annual value belonging to Sale which is one of the contracts that got Dombrowski fired. Just so you're clear on what I'm trying to convey, if the Sox had 30 million in free agency money to spend on 2 roster spots Bloom would rather spend 15 million each on both spots than pay say 29 million on player A, even if he's the top player at his position, and a million on player B. I think Bloom prefers to spend his money on depth, like the bottom of the roster, than allocate money toward the top. He was willing to give Wacha, a pitcher who had a nice six week stretch, but who TB didn't trust to give a playoff spot, 7 million dollars. I'm sure he'll make more moves like that. But I highly doubt he gives Devers the money he wants, which will be in excess of 300 plus million. Of course he says extending him and X is a priority. What the hell is he supposed to say? If Devers wants to bet on himself finding another gear on offense, and why wouldn't he - then he's likely to wait until free agency to sign, so I doubt a hometown discount offer is going to sway him much. He's going to have to offer Rendon/Arrenado money if not more given his youthful age. You might be anticipating an early April 2022 extension but I'm not. OTOH, Bogaerts might take a hometown discount offer, if it's a big step up from where he's at now. I highly doubt Bloom gives X Seager/Lindor/Correa money. He shouldn't. We all know Xander's days at SS are numbered, but he might still expect Rondon money, if not Lindor money. I doubt Bloom offers 30 million/year for X, but if he offers, say 8 years and 27 million, maybe he can extend X? For now, Bloom will wait and see what the luxury tax threshold rises to and what the penalties for going over are. If he's allowed to spend more, he will. Maybe that allows for both a Schwarber or Baez AND a Rodon or Stroman? But either way I think all of this Scherzer/Correa talk is quite silly. They're not going to allocate that large a percentage of their payroll on one player. He'd take the money and spread it around. And I'll believe differently when I actually see it. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 30, 2021 0:47:21 GMT -5
Based on arb estimates of 11.1 and 15.6 plus 6 free agent years, I think the Red Sox should be looking at about a 180-200mil/8yr contract for Devers, which would keep him through his age 32 season. If you're Devers, you're likely looking for something closer to 250mil/8yr with an opt-out in there, as this is likely closer to what he could get on the FA market (after accounting for the arb numbers). That's a monster deal, but it's for his expected peak years, and he's only 2 years from free agency. But this assumes he can be a 3b through age 32, and if that's not the case, the numbers get real muddy. It's a tough extension to negotiate on both side. Given Devers' body type, which the scouts have always disliked, I'm guessing he doesn't get a 10+ year extension like some of these guys. This is truly the rub. I love Raffy but I don't want him to be my 3B for the next 8 years. DH, yes; 3B, no. If someone out there is willing to pay him Arenado money (a guy with nine gold gloves in nine years, to go with four silver sluggers), you can't match that. He makes more sense as the highest-paid DH.
JDM opting in for one more year will go a long way toward figuring out Raffy's future payday. If JD had opted out, they could've started transitioning Raffy to DH in 2022. As it stands, Raffy's performance at 3B this year will be a huge bellwether. If he continues to cost the team runs in the field, other teams aren't going to be able to ignore it if he refuses to take a DH-salaried extension and hits free agency after 2023. If he somehow figures everything out with his glove (and arm) in 2022, there will be plenty of teams ready to pay him to stay at 3B and the extension price will go up.
It puts Cora in a tough spot if he continues to languish at the bottom of the league's defensive ranks. Does he deserve the right to keep playing there to try to boost his future payday even if it's better for the team for him to play less in the field? Again, with JDM likely to play 120+ games at DH, it's less of a question in 2022. For me, that raises the question of why you extend him this off-season, likely for 3B money, instead of next.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 30, 2021 16:39:28 GMT -5
I think trading Devers is the wrong move. But if they have to does anyone believe San Diego would be interested? They're kind of stuck in GFIN and guys like Abrams Campuso and Gore are pretty intriguing. Even though combined they'll probably never sniff what Devers can do at his peak.
Maybe the Mets, Rangers (Jack Leiter), and Tigers get invovled too. Texas has some interesting minor leaguers for sure.
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Post by bosoxnation on Nov 30, 2021 18:53:41 GMT -5
They should give him what Freeman is asking for 6 years 180 mill.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Nov 30, 2021 19:29:51 GMT -5
They should give him what Freeman is asking for 6 years 180 mill. If that's all it would take, it'd be completed |
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 1, 2021 2:07:33 GMT -5
They should give him what Freeman is asking for 6 years 180 mill. If that's all it would take, it'd be completed Ok if he doesn’t want to sign for 6 years at 30-35 per then he’s going to be too expensive and we need to trade him. As much as I love him that’s crazy money and as many years as we should ever go on a player. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 1, 2021 7:53:16 GMT -5
Freeman is 32. Devers is 25. It's not a great contract comp. A six-year deal isn't getting it done unless it's for bonkers money.
You're starting at 8 and he's asking for 12 on an extension.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 1, 2021 10:19:14 GMT -5
Starting to think Devers is not long for Boston and will be dealt at some point before becoming a free agent. That would surely bum me out. This would be insane. Hell, cut him a deal with an opt-out after 30. That still guarantees several more years in Boston. Between this and the radio silence on Xander, it makes me think ownership is gravitating more and more toward a Tampa model of "enjoy your time when you're here because it may not be long." Or as that article from The Athletic stated, "trade the players while they're still good to get value in return. You have to be ruthless." Ruthless, maybe but at the expense of young, all star talent? I hate it. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 1, 2021 10:38:34 GMT -5
Starting to think Devers is not long for Boston and will be dealt at some point before becoming a free agent. That would surely bum me out. This would be insane. Hell, cut him a deal with an opt-out after 30. That still guarantees several more years in Boston. Between this and the radio silence on Xander, it makes me think ownership is gravitating more and more toward a Tampa model of "enjoy your time when you're here because it may not be long." Or as that article from The Athletic stated, "trade the players while they're still good to get value in return. You have to be ruthless." Ruthless, maybe but at the expense of young, all star talent? I hate it. I agree with what you're saying and maybe I'm wrong and they'll give him an extension but they're losing leverage to help keep the AAV down and he's losing incentive to sign now for security rather than going to FA. |
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