SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 7, 2022 7:11:21 GMT -5
Bradford (I didn't see a link above; apologies if it's repeated). First excerpt, which many of us have been saying for two years: At this point of the game, the Red Sox simply aren't going to be saving themselves financially with a Devers extension. That window inexplicably came and went a while ago. You are going to need to be paying this player free agent dollars even though he officially doesn't enter that world until after next season.Second excerpt, which, if accurate (though Bradford admits it's conjecture) makes it seem like he's headed to one of the NY teams or LA: One hypothesis - without the aid of any sources or inside information - would suggest that Devers' target is something closer to Bryce Harper, who signed a 13-year deal for $330 million, than the Jose Ramirez deal (5 years, $125 million) announced yesterday.Full article: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/why-rafael-devers-red-sox-havent-gotten-a-deal-done
|
|
|
Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 7, 2022 7:29:29 GMT -5
Bradford (I didn't see a link above; apologies if it's repeated). First excerpt, which many of us have been saying for two years: At this point of the game, the Red Sox simply aren't going to be saving themselves financially with a Devers extension. That window inexplicably came and went a while ago. You are going to need to be paying this player free agent dollars even though he officially doesn't enter that world until after next season.Second excerpt, which, if accurate (though Bradford admits it's conjecture) makes it seem like he's headed to one of the NY teams or LA: One hypothesis - without the aid of any sources or inside information - would suggest that Devers' target is something closer to Bryce Harper, who signed a 13-year deal for $330 million, than the Jose Ramirez deal (5 years, $125 million) announced yesterday.Full article: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/why-rafael-devers-red-sox-havent-gotten-a-deal-doneDevers bat at his peak is probably going to be closer to Bryce Harpers than Ramirez. So it kind of makes sense. That and hes younger than Ramirez. Do want to commit to someone until they are 40? I'd rather just do 10/300 and try to get it done.
|
|
zoot
Rookie
Posts: 50
|
Post by zoot on Apr 7, 2022 10:04:25 GMT -5
Count me with those who don’t think it is certain that he will end up moving off third base. I think it is likely, but there is plenty of room to speculate that his defense will not be an albatross at third base for the next five years. I’d like the Sox to offer him an extension that accounts for either outcome. How about structure it year by year based on positional starts? If he’s at third the majority of his starts, he’s getting X in the following year. If he’s a 1B, it’s X - 10% or whatever, if he’s a DH, it’s X - 15% or whatever. You’d want the number X to be really generous (like over 28 million). Make the offer a nine or ten year deal and make the guy know he is appreciated. I think he will eventually move off of 3b...but probably in 7 - 8 years, not imminently like some others think. He's been error prone, but he's still pretty young and I think those lapses will dissipate as he matures. I think he has good defensive skills. I think he can make the difficult play that some struggle with. If he matures defensively this year and continues to mature offensively, his price is only going to go up. His offense has begun to mature as you see his walk total rise substantially. My guess is that Devers will increase his market substantially after this season completes and if the Sox wait on committing to him at top $, those dollars will get bigger and they will lose out. In my opinion if he were a stock, I'd invest heavily in him as I believe he's going to go up and that there's another level offensively and defensively that Devers can and will elevate to. And the thought of him becoming a free agent and perhaps being a guy the Yankees splurge on after next year is kind of a frightening thought (I could see the Mets going all in on him too). As I've already said, I can understand the Bogaerts situation. CB has already hedged for that with Story, and doesn't want to be paying top dollar for someone in his late 30s, which is where a 10 year deal will take us. But Raffy is different. What are we saving for if not someone like Devers? We can curse about the market explosion just like we curse about the weather - maybe it makes us feel good but it doesn't change a thing. That's the environment the team lives in. We have nothing coming up through the system that remotely replicates what he's got on offer. We don't get a toolsy candidate like this every few years. The thought of him parading around in pinstripes through his prime years (which he's just entering) is nauseating. The obvious exception is if the contract clearly will cripple the team, with the other FAs entering the pipeline, but that requires more sophisticated analysis of likely increases in the tax threshold than I'm capable of. If Devers is going to walk, the RS better be prepared for what ensues, with a detailed discussion of why they can't retain a home grown star, and not the neo-BB 'we tried our best and we're moving on'. If they are, so are a lot of others.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 7, 2022 10:07:29 GMT -5
Bradford (I didn't see a link above; apologies if it's repeated). First excerpt, which many of us have been saying for two years: At this point of the game, the Red Sox simply aren't going to be saving themselves financially with a Devers extension. That window inexplicably came and went a while ago. You are going to need to be paying this player free agent dollars even though he officially doesn't enter that world until after next season.Second excerpt, which, if accurate (though Bradford admits it's conjecture) makes it seem like he's headed to one of the NY teams or LA: One hypothesis - without the aid of any sources or inside information - would suggest that Devers' target is something closer to Bryce Harper, who signed a 13-year deal for $330 million, than the Jose Ramirez deal (5 years, $125 million) announced yesterday.Full article: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/why-rafael-devers-red-sox-havent-gotten-a-deal-done"Hypothesis"... I don't think this quote means anything. Like, yes, I'm sure Devers would like $330 million if he could get it. And it's a heck of a leap from this conjecture to "he's heading to NY or LA." The Red Sox are a big market team too, last I checked. And you might also look at which teams signed the biggest contracts this past offseason.
But one interesting thing is that both Harper and Ramirez have an AAV of about $25 million. If 10/250 got it done for Devers, I think we'd all be grabbing Bloom's arm and forcing him to sign that contract tout suite, no?
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 7, 2022 11:57:31 GMT -5
Bradford (I didn't see a link above; apologies if it's repeated). First excerpt, which many of us have been saying for two years: At this point of the game, the Red Sox simply aren't going to be saving themselves financially with a Devers extension. That window inexplicably came and went a while ago. You are going to need to be paying this player free agent dollars even though he officially doesn't enter that world until after next season.Second excerpt, which, if accurate (though Bradford admits it's conjecture) makes it seem like he's headed to one of the NY teams or LA: One hypothesis - without the aid of any sources or inside information - would suggest that Devers' target is something closer to Bryce Harper, who signed a 13-year deal for $330 million, than the Jose Ramirez deal (5 years, $125 million) announced yesterday.Full article: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/why-rafael-devers-red-sox-havent-gotten-a-deal-done"Hypothesis"... I don't think this quote means anything. Like, yes, I'm sure Devers would like $330 million if he could get it. And it's a heck of a leap from this conjecture to "he's heading to NY or LA." The Red Sox are a big market team too, last I checked. And you might also look at which teams signed the biggest contracts this past offseason. But one interesting thing is that both Harper and Ramirez have an AAV of about $25 million. If 10/250 got it done for Devers, I think we'd all be grabbing Bloom's arm and forcing him to sign that contract tout suite, no? Ouí!
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 7, 2022 12:49:51 GMT -5
Bradford (I didn't see a link above; apologies if it's repeated). First excerpt, which many of us have been saying for two years: At this point of the game, the Red Sox simply aren't going to be saving themselves financially with a Devers extension. That window inexplicably came and went a while ago. You are going to need to be paying this player free agent dollars even though he officially doesn't enter that world until after next season.Second excerpt, which, if accurate (though Bradford admits it's conjecture) makes it seem like he's headed to one of the NY teams or LA: One hypothesis - without the aid of any sources or inside information - would suggest that Devers' target is something closer to Bryce Harper, who signed a 13-year deal for $330 million, than the Jose Ramirez deal (5 years, $125 million) announced yesterday.Full article: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/why-rafael-devers-red-sox-havent-gotten-a-deal-doneI love Raffy to death and want him to stay here but if he is looking for Harper money the Red Sox are right to walk away. Here are their respective career lines through age 24: Harper: .285/.386/.515 141 wRC+ Devers: .279/.338/.509 119 wRC+ Devers is great and they should sign him. But he is nowhere near the same hitter Harper is or was at the time. Maybe he can get there, but he hasn't yet and that's what counts in contract negotiations. My guess is the Red Sox are looking to extend him for similar to what Bogaerts got, which was $20 mil AAV and had him under contract through his age 33 season. Devers is still 2 years from free agency, so 8 years @ $20 mil is $160 million keeps him under contract through his age 32 season and buys out 6 years of fee agency. That would be my guess for the Red Sox offer. It's definitely team friendly and he would be giving money up for sure the way Bogey was so I get why he denied it. But if he wants a Harper type contract, the only way he gets it is if he goes to free agency.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 7, 2022 12:55:57 GMT -5
Maybe Raffy realizes his D is holding him back from being considered an elite long term 3rd baseman which could cost him some money and he wants to fix that. Cora has said he looks a little better this spring.
Maybe some maturity and focus will help his game overall and we will see a MVP type season this yr. Then we can start talking about him being a 30+m player.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 7, 2022 12:56:20 GMT -5
Bradford (I didn't see a link above; apologies if it's repeated). First excerpt, which many of us have been saying for two years: At this point of the game, the Red Sox simply aren't going to be saving themselves financially with a Devers extension. That window inexplicably came and went a while ago. You are going to need to be paying this player free agent dollars even though he officially doesn't enter that world until after next season.Second excerpt, which, if accurate (though Bradford admits it's conjecture) makes it seem like he's headed to one of the NY teams or LA: One hypothesis - without the aid of any sources or inside information - would suggest that Devers' target is something closer to Bryce Harper, who signed a 13-year deal for $330 million, than the Jose Ramirez deal (5 years, $125 million) announced yesterday.Full article: www.audacy.com/weei/sports/red-sox/why-rafael-devers-red-sox-havent-gotten-a-deal-doneI love Raffy to death and want him to stay here but if he is looking for Harper money the Red Sox are right to walk away. Here are their respective career lines through age 24: Harper: .285/.386/.515 141 wRC+ Devers: .279/.338/.509 119 wRC+ Devers is great and they should sign him. But he is nowhere near the same hitter Harper is or was at the time. Maybe he can get there, but he hasn't yet and that's what counts in contract negotiations. My guess is the Red Sox are looking to extend him for similar to what Bogaerts got, which was $20 mil AAV and had him under contract through his age 33 season. Devers is still 2 years from free agency, so 8 years @ $20 mil is $160 million keeps him under contract through his age 32 season and buys out 6 years of fee agency. That would be my guess for the Red Sox offer. It's definitely team friendly and he would be giving money up for sure the way Bogey was so I get why he denied it. But if he wants a Harper type contract, the only way he gets it is if he goes to free agency. I agree with Bradford that the team-friendly deal opportunity likely died a while back (prob before last season began was the deadline for that).
|
|
|
Post by prospectlove on Apr 7, 2022 21:17:20 GMT -5
I wonder if we are seeing the start of last year in Boston for devers. Especially if they resign Xander who after signing might explore moving positions. This will be an interesting year for the Red Sox as it feels like the last Swan song for the group in many ways
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Apr 7, 2022 23:50:09 GMT -5
I’d trade him before I offer him a 10 year deal. Baseball players get way too comfortable with those long term deals. They should put a 6 year max on deals.
|
|
|
Post by juanfatj on Apr 8, 2022 7:25:37 GMT -5
Wondering what type of return the sox could get for Devers? No way I would give him a 10 year deal. The dodgers seem to love shelling out big contracts, and they have the prospects to get it done. Miguel Vargas is a name that for me would have to be included.
|
|
|
Post by huskies15 on Apr 8, 2022 8:51:07 GMT -5
It's an organizational failure if they don't sign Devers long-term. Full stop.
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Apr 8, 2022 8:52:51 GMT -5
I agree with the last 2 posters. Anything beyond 10 years is a pretty hard no unless we hold option years on our end or has pretty high level kickers based on performance the last 2 years. I disagree a little because I would do 10 years max though since i see it only as 8 year contract with 2 year arbitration buy out. I would offer 10/300 absolute max. I do not think 10 or 300 get it done though. I think he is looking for 12/13 and 350+. I offer it asap and immediately look to trade him if/when he says no. I think you get a huge package for him and we have guys that will fill his spot very very soon.
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Apr 8, 2022 9:11:49 GMT -5
My worry about Devers is that he might weigh 275 pounds in the spring after signing a 10-year contract.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 8, 2022 9:43:09 GMT -5
I wonder if we are seeing the start of last year in Boston for devers. Especially if they resign Xander who after signing might explore moving positions. This will be an interesting year for the Red Sox as it feels like the last Swan song for the group in many ways I was thinking this exactly. If Dalbec continues to adjust they can move him to 3rd, move Story to SS and/or go get Trea Turner in the off-season for SS/2nd base (Yorke, if he makes it is still 2-3 years away and Dalbec will either be gone by then or they will move him to LF). Plus, even if teams are trading for just a year if Devers you have to believe there'd be at least one MLB top 30 prospect in the haul. Chiam may have to wipe the drool off his chin just thinking about this.
|
|
|
Post by kjkramer on Apr 8, 2022 10:06:36 GMT -5
I am ok letting Devers go. I LOVE the guy but insanely worried about his body type. Guys like Cecil, Prince, Pablo, Mo, etc fall off a cliff in performance so fast. There arent many guys like Tony G or Kirby P that defy that body type odds. More fail off a cliff than succeed. We can manage fine without him and get a great return.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 8, 2022 10:29:06 GMT -5
It's an organizational failure if they don't sign Devers long-term. Full stop. Regardless of the cost? I mean there are teams out there willing to do stupid deals. Just look at Corey Seagar at 10/325, that is just ridiculous. I don't care that much about how much these guys get paid but what I don't want to see is 66 million in bad contracts between Raffy and Xander on the back end of those LT deals. Let the Yankees and Dodgers have those problems, heck it is looking like the Mookie deal could end up being a ball and chain. The Trevor Story contract was the best team friendly deal signed this past off season IMO, keep doing that Chaim. If Raffy and Xander are both looking for 33 at least then I say it is time to get some propects back in return. If they are GG candidates then that is a different story. Story is a GG candidate that rakes and look at his contract.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Apr 10, 2022 2:41:01 GMT -5
It's an organizational failure if they don't sign Devers long-term. Full stop. Regardless of the cost? I mean there are teams out there willing to do stupid deals. Just look at Corey Seagar at 10/325, that is just ridiculous. I don't care that much about how much these guys get paid but what I don't want to see is 66 million in bad contracts between Raffy and Xander on the back end of those LT deals. Let the Yankees and Dodgers have those problems, heck it is looking like the Mookie deal could end up being a ball and chain. The Trevor Story contract was the best team friendly deal signed this past off season IMO, keep doing that Chaim. If Raffy and Xander are both looking for 33 at least then I say it is time to get some propects back in return. If they are GG candidates then that is a different story. Story is a GG candidate that rakes and look at his contract. I hate to be negative I do. Like i said earlier i wouldn’t go past 6 years and MLB should put a max on years for a deal. That being said please don’t compare Devers and Bogaerts to a guy who hit .251 while playing half of his games at Coors Field. I’d give X a 5 year 30 mill a year deal. Dude took a nice team friendly deal and is the face of the franchise. Devers i would go 6 years at 32 mill per. If they don’t want those deals then I would trade Devers as soon as this season is over and overpay X if i had to just at a shorter term. He’s a Red Sox legend and deserves to end his career with us. I don’t see the Story hype. I hope he grows on me.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 3:46:53 GMT -5
Regardless of the cost? I mean there are teams out there willing to do stupid deals. Just look at Corey Seagar at 10/325, that is just ridiculous. I don't care that much about how much these guys get paid but what I don't want to see is 66 million in bad contracts between Raffy and Xander on the back end of those LT deals. Let the Yankees and Dodgers have those problems, heck it is looking like the Mookie deal could end up being a ball and chain. The Trevor Story contract was the best team friendly deal signed this past off season IMO, keep doing that Chaim. If Raffy and Xander are both looking for 33 at least then I say it is time to get some propects back in return. If they are GG candidates then that is a different story. Story is a GG candidate that rakes and look at his contract. I hate to be negative I do. Like i said earlier i wouldn’t go past 6 years and MLB should put a max on years for a deal. That being said please don’t compare Devers and Bogaerts to a guy who hit .251 while playing half of his games at Coors Field. I’d give X a 5 year 30 mill a year deal. Dude took a nice team friendly deal and is the face of the franchise. Devers i would go 6 years at 32 mill per. If they don’t want those deals then I would trade Devers as soon as this season is over and overpay X if i had to just at a shorter term. He’s a Red Sox legend and deserves to end his career with us. I don’t see the Story hype. I hope he grows on me. Trevor Story career average WAR based on 162 games, 5.8 Xander 4.2 Raffy 3.2
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,990
|
Post by jimoh on Apr 10, 2022 7:42:11 GMT -5
I hate to be negative I do. Like i said earlier i wouldn’t go past 6 years and MLB should put a max on years for a deal. That being said please don’t compare Devers and Bogaerts to a guy who hit .251 while playing half of his games at Coors Field. I’d give X a 5 year 30 mill a year deal. Dude took a nice team friendly deal and is the face of the franchise. Devers i would go 6 years at 32 mill per. If they don’t want those deals then I would trade Devers as soon as this season is over and overpay X if i had to just at a shorter term. He’s a Red Sox legend and deserves to end his career with us. I don’t see the Story hype. I hope he grows on me. Trevor Story career average WAR based on 162 games, 5.8 Xander 4.2 Raffy 3.2 Your point has some validity, but it's also always misleading to compare "career average" stats for a guy who got to mlb at age 23 with those of two guys who were in mlb at age 20. What is each man's average WAR from 23 on?
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 8:32:56 GMT -5
Trevor Story career average WAR based on 162 games, 5.8 Xander 4.2 Raffy 3.2 Your point has some validity, but it's also always misleading to compare "career average" stats for a guy who got to mlb at age 23 with those of two guys who were in mlb at age 20. What is each man's average WAR from 23 on? In 7 seasons Story bwar 26.8 Xander in 9 seasons 29.1 Raffy 5 seasons 10.7 No matter how you cut it up Story is a comparable player overall as he has 10.6 in dwar.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 10, 2022 8:56:09 GMT -5
Career bWAR after age 24 season.
Devers 10.7 (3 full seasons, half season in debut, half season in 2020) Bogaerts 11.5 (4 plus a month seasons) Story 6.9 (2ish)
bWAR/162 after age 24 season Devers 3.16 Bogaerts 2.99 Story 4.62
Story clearly debuted a more finished product debuting at 23, but using only career numbers isn't telling a full story.
|
|
|
Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 11:40:12 GMT -5
Career bWAR after age 24 season. Devers 10.7 (3 full seasons, half season in debut, half season in 2020) Bogaerts 11.5 (4 plus a month seasons) Story 6.9 (2ish) bWAR/162 after age 24 season Devers 3.16 Bogaerts 2.99 Story 4.62 Story clearly debuted a more finished product debuting at 23, but using only career numbers isn't telling a full story. This all started with someone saying not to compare Story to X and Raffy by pointing out his worst season BA of 251 and playing at Coors. I think the numbers say different, you can absolutely compare him to those 2. Yes his defense is a big reason why but he has also been very productive at the plate, Story is no slouch is all I am pointing out.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 10, 2022 12:02:15 GMT -5
How about instead of trying to parse what precise portions of their pasts are pertinent, we look at predictions for performance proceeding from the present? I.e., ZiPS 3-year forecasts:
Devers: 13.6 WAR Bogaerts 12.9 WAR Story: 13.1 WAR
All very similar, especially Story and Bogaerts. The gap between Devers and the other two would grow past season three, though, since he'd still be on his peak plateau and they'd be losing about half a WAR per year.
|
|
|
Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 10, 2022 12:15:21 GMT -5
The issue with not signing Bogaerts and/or Devers is...what are they going to spend their money on, if not them? The Red Sox are not a small market, or even a mid-market club. If Xander walks that is ~$55 million in salary coming off the books when you include JD Martinez and Price. You have to think in his third year of arb Devers will be making close to $20 million in 2023. So if he walks you are looking at another $20 million to spend. You are talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 million in salary if/when those 4 guys leave. Who are you spending that money on if not Bogaerts and/or Devers? It has to go somewhere if the Red Sox are going to be a top 5 payroll in baseball, which they should be.
|
|
|