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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 12:27:12 GMT -5
The issue with not signing Bogaerts and/or Devers is...what are they going to spend their money on, if not them? The Red Sox are not a small market, or even a mid-market club. If Xander walks that is ~$55 million in salary coming off the books when you include JD Martinez and Price. You have to think in his third year of arb Devers will be making close to $20 million in 2023. So if he walks you are looking at another $20 million to spend. You are talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 million in salary if/when those 4 guys leave. Who are you spending that money on if not Bogaerts and/or Devers? It has to go somewhere if the Red Sox are going to be a top 5 payroll in baseball, which they should be. Pitching is what they will need, high end pitching isn't in the system. And that doesn't come cheap.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 10, 2022 12:53:05 GMT -5
The issue with not signing Bogaerts and/or Devers is...what are they going to spend their money on, if not them? The Red Sox are not a small market, or even a mid-market club. If Xander walks that is ~$55 million in salary coming off the books when you include JD Martinez and Price. You have to think in his third year of arb Devers will be making close to $20 million in 2023. So if he walks you are looking at another $20 million to spend. You are talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 million in salary if/when those 4 guys leave. Who are you spending that money on if not Bogaerts and/or Devers? It has to go somewhere if the Red Sox are going to be a top 5 payroll in baseball, which they should be. Pitching is what they will need, high end pitching isn't in the system. And that doesn't come cheap.What pitchers should they get? Here are the pitchers under the age of 33 available next offseason, excluding players with club options: Trevor Bauer Carlos Rodon Jake Odorizzi Taijuan Walker Nick Martinez Zach Eflin Joe Ross Joe Musgrove Chad Kuhl Noah Syndergaard Kohei Arihara Aaron Sanchez Vincent Velasquez Sean Manaea Michael Lorenzen Jameson Taillon Carlos Martinez Jose Urena Michael Wacha Andrew Heaney Martin Perez Matt Boyd Mike Clevinger Who are the Red Sox breaking the bank for here?
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Post by Guidas on Apr 10, 2022 13:48:30 GMT -5
Pitching is what they will need, high end pitching isn't in the system. And that doesn't come cheap. What pitchers should they get? Here are the pitchers under the age of 33 available next offseason, excluding players with club options: Trevor Bauer Carlos Rodon Jake Odorizzi Taijuan Walker Nick Martinez Zach Eflin Joe Ross Joe Musgrove Chad Kuhl Noah Syndergaard Kohei Arihara Aaron Sanchez Vincent Velasquez Sean Manaea Michael Lorenzen Jameson Taillon Carlos Martinez Jose Urena Michael Wacha Andrew Heaney Martin Perez Matt Boyd Mike Clevinger Who are the Red Sox breaking the bank for here? You missed Eovaldi, who I would offer 5 years at $26M per to right now. Five years from now even a solid #3 will be worth that. Thor is the only one I'd throw big bucks at. I'm intrigued at Odorizzi for much less than Eovaldi, but he'll prob get at least 4 years at $20M per. The rest are dreck.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2022 14:34:26 GMT -5
I think that ideally Bloom would prefer to extend Devers and let Bogaerts go.
But I think the more likely scenario is that the Sox and Bogaerts figure out a compromise extension and Bloom winds up trading Devers.
While I wouldn't be completely shocked, I don't think Bloom lets both leave or get traded.
I've flip flopped on this already but I think that when push comes to shove, X will be more willing to be paid as a 3b, rather than a SS over the long term than Devers is willing to be paid as a 1b/dh rather than a 3b. Then add in that it's more years and total $ for Devers than X, I'm back to believing that X stays and Devers gets dealt for a better package than what they got for Mookie because this time they wouldn't be dumping a big contract at the same time, like they were with David Price.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 10, 2022 14:52:19 GMT -5
I think that ideally Bloom would prefer to extend Devers and let Bogaerts go. But I think the more likely scenario is that the Sox and Bogaerts figure out a compromise extension and Bloom winds up trading Devers. While I wouldn't be completely shocked, I don't think Bloom lets both leave or get traded. I've flip flopped on this already but I think that when push comes to shove, X will be more willing to be paid as a 3b, rather than a SS over the long term than Devers is willing to be paid as a 1b/dh rather than a 3b. Then add in that it's more years and total $ for Devers than X, I'm back to believing that X stays and Devers gets dealt for a better package than what they got for Mookie because this time they wouldn't be dumping a big contract at the same time, like they were with David Price. I think you may be correct in your assessment but I guess we'll see. I'll enjoy watching X and rafi in the same lineup this year and not put too much thought into till the year is over. I'm sure there will be plenty in on Devers should he be put on the market but my hope would be somewhere to the NL who wants to offer him a big extension so that at least he'd be out of the AL. First thought I had was the Mets. Cohen has a big check book and they have some good prospects.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2022 15:12:17 GMT -5
I think that ideally Bloom would prefer to extend Devers and let Bogaerts go. But I think the more likely scenario is that the Sox and Bogaerts figure out a compromise extension and Bloom winds up trading Devers. While I wouldn't be completely shocked, I don't think Bloom lets both leave or get traded. I've flip flopped on this already but I think that when push comes to shove, X will be more willing to be paid as a 3b, rather than a SS over the long term than Devers is willing to be paid as a 1b/dh rather than a 3b. Then add in that it's more years and total $ for Devers than X, I'm back to believing that X stays and Devers gets dealt for a better package than what they got for Mookie because this time they wouldn't be dumping a big contract at the same time, like they were with David Price. I think you may be correct in your assessment but I guess we'll see. I'll enjoy watching X and rafi in the same lineup this year and not put too much thought into till the year is over. I'm sure there will be plenty in on Devers should he be put on the market but my hope would be somewhere to the NL who wants to offer him a big extension so that at least he'd be out of the AL. First thought I had was the Mets. Cohen has a big check book and they have some good prospects. I could see a McNeil or Davis coming back with a couple of solid prospects, one in their top 5, and another in their top 10, and a lottery ticket. Hope this doesn't come to pass, but I'd rather see that than him in pinstripes.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 10, 2022 15:16:52 GMT -5
I think you may be correct in your assessment but I guess we'll see. I'll enjoy watching X and rafi in the same lineup this year and not put too much thought into till the year is over. I'm sure there will be plenty in on Devers should he be put on the market but my hope would be somewhere to the NL who wants to offer him a big extension so that at least he'd be out of the AL. First thought I had was the Mets. Cohen has a big check book and they have some good prospects. I could see a McNeil or Davis coming back with a couple of solid prospects, one in their top 5, and another in their top 10, and a lottery ticket. Hope this doesn't come to pass, but I'd rather see that than him in pinstripes. Theoretically resign xandy to play 3rd, play Story at ss and mcneil/Davis to play 2nd doesn't sound like a half bad infield. Hopefully dalbec takes a step forward in consistency and Casas proves to be ready for the big time to cover the 1st/dh positions. Bring back Hernandez and have Verdugo in one of the corners. Don't want to lose rafi but that'd at least cover up some of the sting.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 10, 2022 15:46:26 GMT -5
What pitchers should they get? Here are the pitchers under the age of 33 available next offseason, excluding players with club options: Trevor Bauer Carlos Rodon Jake Odorizzi Taijuan Walker Nick Martinez Zach Eflin Joe Ross Joe Musgrove Chad Kuhl Noah Syndergaard Kohei Arihara Aaron Sanchez Vincent Velasquez Sean Manaea Michael Lorenzen Jameson Taillon Carlos Martinez Jose Urena Michael Wacha Andrew Heaney Martin Perez Matt Boyd Mike Clevinger Who are the Red Sox breaking the bank for here? You missed Eovaldi, who I would offer 5 years at $26M per to right now. Five years from now even a solid #3 will be worth that. Thor is the only one I'd throw big bucks at. I'm intrigued at Odorizzi for much less than Eovaldi, but he'll prob get at least 4 years at $20M per. The rest are dreck. So we should let our current 2, 3 and 4 hitters walk, and the big move to do with money we save is re-sign Eovaldi and maybe add Noah Syndergaard? Our lineup would be atrocious no matter how much good pitching we had.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2022 15:46:43 GMT -5
I could see a McNeil or Davis coming back with a couple of solid prospects, one in their top 5, and another in their top 10, and a lottery ticket. Hope this doesn't come to pass, but I'd rather see that than him in pinstripes. Theoretically resign xandy to play 3rd, play Story at ss and mcneil/Davis to play 2nd doesn't sound like a half bad infield. Hopefully dalbec takes a step forward in consistency and Casas proves to be ready for the big time to cover the 1st/dh positions. Bring back Hernandez and have Verdugo in one of the corners. Don't want to lose rafi but that'd at least cover up some of the sting. I know that if I were Bloom and decided I needed to trade Devers and if I'm looking for a trade partner who could afford him long term I'd look at the Mets and want their young catcher Alvarez, along with either Davis or McNeil. He's their top prospect but that's what I'd want if I were Bloom. I'd want that no doubt catcher of the future.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 19:45:54 GMT -5
Pitching is what they will need, high end pitching isn't in the system. And that doesn't come cheap. What pitchers should they get? Here are the pitchers under the age of 33 available next offseason, excluding players with club options: Trevor Bauer Carlos Rodon Jake Odorizzi Taijuan Walker Nick Martinez Zach Eflin Joe Ross Joe Musgrove Chad Kuhl Noah Syndergaard Kohei Arihara Aaron Sanchez Vincent Velasquez Sean Manaea Michael Lorenzen Jameson Taillon Carlos Martinez Jose Urena Michael Wacha Andrew Heaney Martin Perez Matt Boyd Mike Clevinger Who are the Red Sox breaking the bank for here? I see some names in there that I could see throwing money at but that isn't the point. The point is the Sox don't have the horses that can be an ace or even a #2 in the system. Those guys cost money and you will need to invest heavily yr in yr out. Right now it is Sale and Nate who I want the Sox to resign which won't be cheap but that is 50m.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 10, 2022 19:48:24 GMT -5
Nate finished 4th in Cy voting last season. Another year like that and he's getting over $30M per easily.
And if he doesn't repeat that or has health issues, do you really want to sign him again?
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 10, 2022 23:47:35 GMT -5
The issue with not signing Bogaerts and/or Devers is...what are they going to spend their money on, if not them? The Red Sox are not a small market, or even a mid-market club. If Xander walks that is ~$55 million in salary coming off the books when you include JD Martinez and Price. You have to think in his third year of arb Devers will be making close to $20 million in 2023. So if he walks you are looking at another $20 million to spend. You are talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 million in salary if/when those 4 guys leave. Who are you spending that money on if not Bogaerts and/or Devers? It has to go somewhere if the Red Sox are going to be a top 5 payroll in baseball, which they should be. You don’t just overpay for players because you can. You’re setting the bar for others. Bloom's job is to get them as cheap as he can. If he goes out and pays Devers 300 mil then other players are going to have those demands when speaking to us. If we stick to 4-6 year deals then we are setting up ourselves for the future and the present. Players trying to get paid play 110%. You got to have a hungry clubhouse not a fat one.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 11, 2022 9:13:14 GMT -5
I think you may be correct in your assessment but I guess we'll see. I'll enjoy watching X and rafi in the same lineup this year and not put too much thought into till the year is over. I'm sure there will be plenty in on Devers should he be put on the market but my hope would be somewhere to the NL who wants to offer him a big extension so that at least he'd be out of the AL. First thought I had was the Mets. Cohen has a big check book and they have some good prospects. I could see a McNeil or Davis coming back with a couple of solid prospects, one in their top 5, and another in their top 10, and a lottery ticket. Hope this doesn't come to pass, but I'd rather see that than him in pinstripes. The Mets usually play 6 games or so against the Yankees, so it would be fun to see him beat up them if he will not extend with the Red Sox.
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Post by benzinger on Apr 11, 2022 9:44:34 GMT -5
This thread turned into “Devers to the Mets” awfully suddenly. They have another year+ to figure this out. If I had to guess, I would think Devers is the guy they sign and that Bogaerts is gone after this season.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 11, 2022 9:53:53 GMT -5
This thread turned into “Devers to the Mets” awfully suddenly. They have another year+ to figure this out. If I had to guess, I would think Devers is the guy they sign and that Bogaerts is gone after this season. If nothing else due to the decision coming 2nd. But between age and ready-made replacement, still makes sense.
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Post by benzinger on Apr 11, 2022 10:35:41 GMT -5
Pitching is what they will need, high end pitching isn't in the system. And that doesn't come cheap. What pitchers should they get? Here are the pitchers under the age of 33 available next offseason, excluding players with club options: Trevor Bauer Carlos Rodon Jake Odorizzi Taijuan Walker Nick Martinez Zach Eflin Joe Ross Joe Musgrove Chad Kuhl Noah Syndergaard Kohei Arihara Aaron Sanchez Vincent Velasquez Sean Manaea Michael Lorenzen Jameson Taillon Carlos Martinez Jose Urena Michael Wacha Andrew Heaney Martin Perez Matt Boyd Mike Clevinger Who are the Red Sox breaking the bank for here? Michael Wacha, eh?? Hmmm
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Apr 13, 2022 8:16:51 GMT -5
Ugh. SoxStats just posted a clip from Passan on WEEI saying that the Sox were willing to offer over $200m but that Devers was looking for over $300m and that "this thing is playing out in a very VERY similar fashion to Mookie Betts."
Not what I want to hear. I thought Arenado would be a ceiling (given defensive considerations) but I guess age-adjustment and inflation-adjustment put Devers' ask higher.
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Post by ematz1423 on Apr 13, 2022 8:40:47 GMT -5
Ugh. SoxStats just posted a clip from Passan on WEEI saying that the Sox were willing to offer over $200m but that Devers was looking for over $300m and that "this thing is playing out in a very VERY similar fashion to Mookie Betts." Not what I want to hear. I thought Arenado would be a ceiling (given defensive considerations) but I guess age-adjustment and inflation-adjustment put Devers' ask higher. I love Devers but yep I can't blame the sox not wanting to give a 300+ mil deal to a 3rd baseman who to date has been a poor fielder.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 13, 2022 9:03:54 GMT -5
The problem is that the window for this to be a save-money deal for the team is closed. Why would he take a below-market deal at this point, two years from FA?
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Post by awalkinthepark on Apr 13, 2022 9:06:26 GMT -5
The issue with not signing Bogaerts and/or Devers is...what are they going to spend their money on, if not them? The Red Sox are not a small market, or even a mid-market club. If Xander walks that is ~$55 million in salary coming off the books when you include JD Martinez and Price. You have to think in his third year of arb Devers will be making close to $20 million in 2023. So if he walks you are looking at another $20 million to spend. You are talking about somewhere in the neighborhood of $75 million in salary if/when those 4 guys leave. Who are you spending that money on if not Bogaerts and/or Devers? It has to go somewhere if the Red Sox are going to be a top 5 payroll in baseball, which they should be. You don’t just overpay for players because you can. You’re setting the bar for others. Bloom's job is to get them as cheap as he can. If he goes out and pays Devers 300 mil then other players are going to have those demands when speaking to us. If we stick to 4-6 year deals then we are setting up ourselves for the future and the present. Players trying to get paid play 110%. You got to have a hungry clubhouse not a fat one. I get that reluctance to be setting the market for players, but this still doesn't answer the question of where the money goes. The free agent classes over the next few years look extremely thin to me, I don't see any position player (outside of Devers/Bogaerts) who the Red Sox would be extending $150 million+ deals to. Which only leaves a few options in my eyes: 1. Sign Devers and/or Bogaerts 2. Trade for highly paid veterans like the Yankees do 3. Let them walk and run a payroll ~$50 million under the CBT threshold. Option 2 does not seem like something the Red Sox would do. So what does the lineup look like in 2024 if you go with option 3? Dalbec, Casas and Verdugo are the only ones that seem like not-god-awful bets to be above average hitters. Maybe Duran if he can figure it out. But after that, who? That is still too early to expect anything from Yorke or Mayer. I am just trying to do the math here. The money is either going to be on the field, or in John Henry's pocket. And if it's on the field, but not going to Devers and/or Bogaerts, I am struggling to see where it would go.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Apr 13, 2022 9:23:26 GMT -5
The problem is that the window for this to be a save-money deal for the team is closed. Why would he take a below-market deal at this point, two years from FA? What's his market rate, though? Devers isn't a $300 million guy based on current performance. Last year, in his career best season with the bat, he was tied for 24th in baseball in wRC+ with shaky D. He might be worth $300 million in two years if he improves, but there's no reason Boston should pay that right now.
As for why he'd take $200 million (or something around there)- he could lock in multigenerational wealth right now without having to risk getting hurt or worse during the next two years.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2022 9:26:52 GMT -5
You don’t just overpay for players because you can. You’re setting the bar for others. Bloom's job is to get them as cheap as he can. If he goes out and pays Devers 300 mil then other players are going to have those demands when speaking to us. If we stick to 4-6 year deals then we are setting up ourselves for the future and the present. Players trying to get paid play 110%. You got to have a hungry clubhouse not a fat one. I get that reluctance to be setting the market for players, but this still doesn't answer the question of where the money goes. The free agent classes over the next few years look extremely thin to me, I don't see any position player (outside of Devers/Bogaerts) who the Red Sox would be extending $150 million+ deals to. Which only leaves a few options in my eyes: 1. Sign Devers and/or Bogaerts 2. Trade for highly paid veterans like the Yankees do 3. Let them walk and run a payroll ~$50 million under the CBT threshold. Option 2 does not seem like something the Red Sox would do. So what does the lineup look like in 2024 if you go with option 3? Dalbec, Casas and Verdugo are the only ones that seem like not-god-awful bets to be above average hitters. Maybe Duran if he can figure it out. But after that, who? That is still too early to expect anything from Yorke or Mayer. I am just trying to do the math here. The money is either going to be on the field, or in John Henry's pocket. And if it's on the field, but not going to Devers and/or Bogaerts, I am struggling to see where it would go. You excluded option 4 which is the more likely option for Devers if they remain far apart in extension talks, which is trade Devers for a placeholder and a major prospect, and good prospect, and a lottery ticket. Bloom doesn't have to trade Devers or Bogaerts for a highly paid veteran. Makes more sense to trade for a young impactful player than do a Lester for Cespedes type deal. Bloom is trying to build a young core for the middle of the decade.
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Post by jkfer98 on Apr 13, 2022 9:27:15 GMT -5
This isn't some analytical take, but at some point you need to pay up for you own guys or you're going to lose the fanbase. Losing Mookie Betts and Rafael Devers within 5 years of each other is unacceptable for a team with as much capital as the Red Sox (and FSG in general).
Are we really going to let Rafael Devers walk over, say, $6 million annually? You cant win every deal, sometimes you have to overpay. I think it's worth it for a relatively young generational hitter.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 13, 2022 9:32:15 GMT -5
Sigh. I'd say maybe the move would be to trade Devers (which I would hate so, so much) and extend Xander and move him to third, but Xander seems to think he's a $30 million/year guy too. (Also I think people might be a little underwhelmed at what they could even get in a trade return for one year of Devers.)
I love them both but they're not really on the level of any of the guys who have signed $300 million contracts.
As for the free agent market, it really does look pretty bleak. Next offseason has a big SS class, with Turner, Correa, Bogaerts, Anderson, and Swanson, but beyond that there is like nothing for the next two seasons on the position player side. Some big pitching names might be available, but I'll believe Bloom is willing to sign a pitcher to a long-term deal when I see it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2022 9:32:31 GMT -5
The problem is that the window for this to be a save-money deal for the team is closed. Why would he take a below-market deal at this point, two years from FA? What's his market rate, though? Devers isn't a $300 million guy based on current performance. Last year, in his career best season with the bat, he was tied for 24th in baseball in wRC+ with shaky D. He might be worth $300 million in two years if he improves, but there's no reason Boston should pay that right now. As for why he'd take $200 million (or something around there)- he could lock in multigenerational wealth right now without having to risk getting hurt or worse during the next two years.
I think you'd be surprised what a guy like Devers, at his age, can get in a free agent market. I think he could fetch $300 million, shaky defense and all. His bat plays at 1b if need be. And Devers has been transparent. He's not worried about "security". He wants to be paid what he feels he's worth on the open market. He's not taking any discounts. I know you're basing this on Devers now, but even so, Devers is what 24 this season, 25? The arrow is pointing up for him offensively as he is obviously maturing, his walk total indicates that as he is laying off pitches that he used to get himself out on. He still has a chance to be better at 3b. He has the skills, but lacks the consistency, so I get what you're saying as far as him not being a $300 million guy now, but keep in mind...if he were a free agent right this moment at his young age...he'd have no problem fetching 300 million.
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