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Trading for a starting pitcher in 2021-22
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 12, 2021 13:17:49 GMT -5
The Red Sox have bid farewell to one starting pitcher from 2021, plus two guys who combined for 44 starts (I would’ve never guessed that many). They have welcomed in two starters on one-year deals plus one who might recover from TJ in the second half. So the starting pitching situation is sorted, right? I’m not so sure.
The rotation depth currently looks like this: Sale, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Wacha, Hill, Houck, Whitlock, Paxton, Seabold, Crawford, Groome, Bello, Winckowski, Mata. There’s a lot of question marks in there. Will Sale be CHRIS SALE again? Can Eovaldi match his career year? Can Pivetta be a consistent, reliable starter? Is Sept. ’21 Wacha the new normal? How much does Hill have left? Can Houck and/or Whitlock blossom into legit 25-start studs? Over/under 9 starts for Paxton? Are Seabold and Crawford starters or relievers in the big leagues? Ditto Bello and Winckowski. When will Groome be ready for his close-up? How is Mata’s TJ recovery coming? Literally every single guy has a real question about him and the odds that all of them will have positive answers are pretty low. You could say that only five or six of them need to be answered in the affirmative, to which I would reply, I’d rather not have such as steep drop off from #2 to the next three guys. Plus, injuries happen. Put another way, you can never have too much starting pitching.
With that as prologue and the fact that most of the decent FA starters already know where they’ll be going to spring training, I started looking at the trade market. Here is a list of guys who are already rumored to be on the market or pitch for a non-contender and would make sense as trade bait. They are listed below in tiers of how much they would likely cost in prospects. Of course, two guys in the same tier might cost different specific prospects but probably in the same ballpark (who knows? Maybe someone in Cincinnati or Oakland thinks more highly of a guy like Duran or Downs or Dalbec than Chaim might - although CIN already traded Downs once).
There’s a whole lot of not-much-else to talk about as we head toward the third week of the lockout (Casey Kelly re-signed with the LG Flat Screens!), so have a look and vote in the poll! I set the poll so that you can vote for your top two preferences.
Two top prospects and then some:
John Means* (BAL) - They’re not trading him in the division but he’s quite an interesting cat. Nice article about him by Ben Clemens of FG this week. Three years of control bumps his price up.
Luis Castillo (CIN) - Nasty, filthy, no-good (meaning good) stuff. Two arb years left, probably totaling ~$20m.
Frankie Montas (OAK) - One that got away (in the Peavy deal when Frankie was 20; FFF). Might be the most expensive guy on here, in terms of prospects. Two arb years left. (Possible weight issue moving forward?)
German Marquez (COL) - Get this guy out of Coors and onto a good team and look out. Also on a very palatable deal with two years remaining. Not like COL to trade this kind of asset, though.
Two good prospects:
Tyler Mahle (CIN) - Don’t know much about him. Classic starter’s build, coming off a big breakout year, struck a bunch of guys out, entering age-27 season. Two arb years left.
Chris Bassitt (OAK) - Late bloomer who has pitched well the past three years. Yet to start 30 games in a season. Turns 33 in Feb. One year rental.
Sean Manaea* (OAK) - Has always flashed promise but 2021 was the first year he lived up to his draft buzz. One year rental.
One or two mid-tier prospects:
Wade Miley* (CIN) - Works quickly, changes speeds, throws strikes. Had a really nice 2021, including a 114-pitch no-no in May. Will eat every inning you put in front of him. One year rental.
Madison Bumgarner* (ARI) - Not what he once was but if you want a playoff hero, few in history can match him. Maybe the Sox coaching staff can reboot him for his age 32-34 seasons. Would be a case of flexing Henry’s wallet to give up very little for a venerable veteran. Might only make sense if you get a better prospect back than the one you give up. ARI claims they are not rebuilding — but do they want to pay MadBum $60m with the hope of maybe contending in his contract's last year?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2021 13:23:37 GMT -5
You should take Miley off the list. The Cubs claimed him. He's not an option. The Reds gave him away.
I'd prefer Bassitt or Manaea, cheaper cost one would think. I think Dalbec alone would do the trick and might be an overpay, but maybe a useful reliever would come back.
I'd sign Schwarber so Dalbec was available, all while hoping to still sign Suzuki. Add in Bassitt or Manaea and the payroll gets big so maybe my wishes aren't realistic.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 12, 2021 13:48:57 GMT -5
Voted Marquez on the grounds that the Rockies are dumb, and might could be fleeced.
Beware John Means: I believe him to be overrated by virtue of the fact that he is the only major league caliber starter the Orioles have had in recent years; it's a one-eyed king in the land of the blind type of situation.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 12, 2021 14:15:37 GMT -5
Do the Sox need to really trade for a starter at this point?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2021 14:17:40 GMT -5
Honestly I doubt the Sox pick up another starting pitcher.
I think Bloom figures they subtracted E-Rod, Richards, and Perez, and have replaced them with Hill, Wacha, Whitlock, and Houck, and eventually Paxton.
I'd like them to trade for Manaea or Bassitt or sign Rodon if feasible but my guess is Bloom will be moving on to spend remaining money on a RF, and 2 short relievers including a closer.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 12, 2021 14:41:29 GMT -5
You should take Miley off the list. The Cubs claimed him. He's not an option. The Reds gave him away. I'd prefer Bassitt or Manaea, cheaper cost one would think. I think Dalbec alone would do the trick and might be an overpay, but maybe a useful reliever would come back. I'd sign Schwarber so Dalbec was available, all while hoping to still sign Suzuki. Add in Bassitt or Manaea and the payroll gets big so maybe my wishes aren't realistic. Missed that about Miley.
I guess CIN couldn't find a taker, although CHC were only the 5th team in the waiver order, so maybe CIN should've waited past 11/5. Maybe they'll be happy to unload Castillo at an "everything must go" price...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 12, 2021 14:44:53 GMT -5
Removed Miley from the poll. Had to erase the poll and re-post it in order to do that.
Also changed it to two votes per ballot. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 12, 2021 14:45:22 GMT -5
Do the Sox need to really trade for a starter at this point? If it's good value and makes the team better, why wouldn't you? |
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 12, 2021 14:46:27 GMT -5
Do the Sox need to really trade for a starter at this point? If it's good value and makes the team better, why wouldn't you? The Sox have 7 starters in Sale. Eovaldi. Pavetta. Hill. Wacha. Houck. Whitlock. I can see a trade coming if they trade someone from this list. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 12, 2021 14:47:15 GMT -5
If it's good value and makes the team better, why wouldn't you? The Sox have 7 starters in Sale. Eovaldi. Pavetta. Hill. Wacha. Houck. Whitlock. I can see a trade coming if they trade someone. Yup, too many starters... and a lot of question marks. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 12, 2021 15:18:02 GMT -5
Another thread probably should be created but just an interesting a thought would be is what should Bloom do to improve the bullpen? And what do you think he actually does?
And I guess part of it ties to the rotation.
Looking at what they got a guess for the front 5 in the rotation would be Eovaldi/Sale/Hill/Whitlock/Houck.
My guess is Wacha is a swingman who gets the ball to start when somebody gets injured.
I can't shake the thought that Pivetta will get a shot at being the closer, that Bloom bring in two setup guys (like Ottavino last year) and that like 2003 it's an open competition for closer.
I figure it's either Pivetta or perhaps he starts off in the rotation with Houck in the pen.
Because it's kind of crowded that's why I dont think the Sox get another starter.
They have Paxton toward the end of the year, particularly if Hill breaks down.
Rather an 8 million year guy, and a cheaper upside high leverage guy and probably a flier or two as well.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 13, 2021 0:05:31 GMT -5
Another thread probably should be created but just an interesting a thought would be is what should Bloom do to improve the bullpen? And what do you think he actually does? And I guess part of it ties to the rotation. Looking at what they got a guess for the front 5 in the rotation would be Eovaldi/Sale/Hill/Whitlock/Houck. My guess is Wacha is a swingman who gets the ball to start when somebody gets injured. I can't shake the thought that Pivetta will get a shot at being the closer, that Bloom bring in two setup guys (like Ottavino last year) and that like 2003 it's an open competition for closer. I figure it's either Pivetta or perhaps he starts off in the rotation with Houck in the pen. Because it's kind of crowded that's why I dont think the Sox get another starter. They have Paxton toward the end of the year, particularly if Hill breaks down. Rather an 8 million year guy, and a cheaper upside high leverage guy and probably a flier or two as well. There's a bullpen thread. Plenty of musings (many of them mine) about Pivetta moving to the closer role there...
I'm more worried about the math, which I have been doing.
Eovaldi just threw his most innings since 2014. His average for the four full seasons since his 2nd TJ (including last year's 182.1 IP) is 135.2/season. He's due for some regression.
The 200 IP Chris Sale is not walking through that door. In the two years before his TJ, he threw 158 and 147.1 IP. He turns 33 on Opening Day Eve. If he throws 150 IP in 2022, I'll be pretty amazed.
In 2021, Rich Hill threw his most innings since 2007. No, that's not a typo. In the five full seasons (including last year's 158.2 IP) since he resurrected his career with a cup of Fenway coffee, he has averaged 117 IP/season. And yes, he's turning 42 in March.
For the last five full seasons, Wacha has been around the 124.2 IP he pitched last year, so you can pencil him in for that for 2022.
Figure Pivetta for the same 155 he had last season and let's put Paxton down for the 42.2 IP that Sale had in his return from TJ.
If you add all those numbers up, you come 210 IP short of the total of starters innings pitched last year, plus Whitlock, Houck, Seabold and Crawford. Those four guys totaled 147.1 IP last year, so maybe they can combine to tack on the extra 62.2 IP to reach last year's total. It's possible.
I just think if you add a stud like Castillo, who has averaged 182.2 IP per season in his first three full years as a starter, you have a lot more breathing room to get creative with guys like Hill and Wacha (and maybe move Pivetta to closer) and not have to hope Eovaldi and Hill can repeat their big numbers from last year or count on big steps forward by Whitlock and Houck or 110 additional IP from Sale.
That's why I wouldn't be surprised if a legit starter is added shortly after the lockout ends. The way they're currently set, there's a lot of innings still to make up.
If Hill and Wacha were signed to 4- or 5-year deals, I get that you would hesitate to add another guy who could push them to the bullpen. But on one-year deals, they can't have been promised guaranteed rotation spots.
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Post by dajubaisasoxfan on Dec 13, 2021 7:46:54 GMT -5
I think there are only 3 on the list that are realistically available to trade for; Mahle, Bassitt & Manea so I voted Mahle. He’d be expensive to trade for. More then most here would be willing to give up. He’d certainly cost more then Bassitt or Manea, but I think less then everybody else on the list. (Bumgarner might be an option but the $ makes him tough). I think the Reds would want someone back that can help the major league club not just prospects back in return. I bet it cost Whitlock, Yorke & Duran for Mahle plus a lottery ticket. And I think Gray is much more likely to be traded then either Castillo or Mahle but he wasn’t listed as an option.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 8:31:49 GMT -5
I think there are only 3 on the list that are realistically available to trade for; Mahle, Bassitt & Manea so I voted Mahle. He’d be expensive to trade for. More then most here would be willing to give up. He’d certainly cost more then Bassitt or Manea, but I think less then everybody else on the list. (Bumgarner might be an option but the $ makes him tough). I think the Reds would want someone back that can help the major league club not just prospects back in return. I bet it cost Whitlock, Yorke & Duran for Mahle plus a lottery ticket. And I think Gray is much more likely to be traded then either Castillo or Mahle but he wasn’t listed as an option. If mahle costs Whitlock or Yorke then Bloom better just hang up the phone none the less 2 of them plus Duran. No thanks |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2021 9:44:24 GMT -5
I think there are only 3 on the list that are realistically available to trade for; Mahle, Bassitt & Manea so I voted Mahle. He’d be expensive to trade for. More then most here would be willing to give up. He’d certainly cost more then Bassitt or Manea, but I think less then everybody else on the list. (Bumgarner might be an option but the $ makes him tough). I think the Reds would want someone back that can help the major league club not just prospects back in return. I bet it cost Whitlock, Yorke & Duran for Mahle plus a lottery ticket. And I think Gray is much more likely to be traded then either Castillo or Mahle but he wasn’t listed as an option. That would be a destructive trade. No thank you. I'd rather take my chances with Whitlock in the rotation and enjoy Yorke's bat for six plus years. |
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Post by Guidas on Dec 13, 2021 13:38:32 GMT -5
I think there are only 3 on the list that are realistically available to trade for; Mahle, Bassitt & Manea so I voted Mahle. He’d be expensive to trade for. More then most here would be willing to give up. He’d certainly cost more then Bassitt or Manea, but I think less then everybody else on the list. (Bumgarner might be an option but the $ makes him tough). I think the Reds would want someone back that can help the major league club not just prospects back in return. I bet it cost Whitlock, Yorke & Duran for Mahle plus a lottery ticket. And I think Gray is much more likely to be traded then either Castillo or Mahle but he wasn’t listed as an option. I disagree. Oakland has basically said they're open for business. The hard part is you're competing with 28 other teams for those assets. Since they're mostly short-timers, you can probably pare that list down to 14 or 15 teams, but that's still significant. My guess is that if they are looking for a starter, of the top Sox prospects and MLB players, here's who could be moved: Dalbec plus any prospect not named Casas, Mayer or Yorke. That doesn't mean you're sending away all of them, but I would think a combination of some of those guys could be packaged for the right deal. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 13:46:14 GMT -5
I think there are only 3 on the list that are realistically available to trade for; Mahle, Bassitt & Manea so I voted Mahle. He’d be expensive to trade for. More then most here would be willing to give up. He’d certainly cost more then Bassitt or Manea, but I think less then everybody else on the list. (Bumgarner might be an option but the $ makes him tough). I think the Reds would want someone back that can help the major league club not just prospects back in return. I bet it cost Whitlock, Yorke & Duran for Mahle plus a lottery ticket. And I think Gray is much more likely to be traded then either Castillo or Mahle but he wasn’t listed as an option. I disagree. Oakland has basically said they're open for business. The hard part is you're competing with 28 other teams for those assets. Since they're mostly short-timers, you can probably pare that list down to 14 or 15 teams, but that's still significant. My guess is that if they are looking for a starter, of the top Sox prospects and MLB players, here's who could be moved: Dalbec plus any prospect not named Casas, Mayer or Yorke. That doesn't mean you're sending away all of them, but I would think a combination of some of those guys could be packaged for the right deal. Personally I'd add bello and wilkelman to that list of untouchable in a trade for a guy with just 1 or 2 years of control left but I agree with your overall point. I doubt manea or bassit cost some insane package. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 13, 2021 14:55:02 GMT -5
I disagree. Oakland has basically said they're open for business. The hard part is you're competing with 28 other teams for those assets. Since they're mostly short-timers, you can probably pare that list down to 14 or 15 teams, but that's still significant. My guess is that if they are looking for a starter, of the top Sox prospects and MLB players, here's who could be moved: Dalbec plus any prospect not named Casas, Mayer or Yorke. That doesn't mean you're sending away all of them, but I would think a combination of some of those guys could be packaged for the right deal. Personally I'd add bello and wilkelman to that list of untouchable in a trade for a guy with just 1 or 2 years of control left but I agree with your overall point. I doubt manea or bassit cost some insane package. I'm with @jesushatesmfys and would add Wilkelman. I'd be open to moving Bello but only for one of the top prizes. You might be selling him at his peak. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 13, 2021 14:58:08 GMT -5
This from @bradfo this morning:
<< According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing Carlos Rodón. >>
I guess I'm not the only person who thinks BOS is not done shopping for a starter.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 13, 2021 15:08:57 GMT -5
This from @bradfo this morning: << According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing Carlos Rodón. >> I guess I'm not the only person who thinks BOS is not done shopping for a starter. It might mean a trade of someone like Eovaldi if they get another arm. I don't trust Eovaldi to repeat. I'd look to sell high if I was Bloom. The Angels have been looking for short term rotation arms, for example. It would be a perfect time to sell Eovaldi if someone believes in his 2021. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 15:20:40 GMT -5
This from @bradfo this morning: << According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing Carlos Rodón. >> I guess I'm not the only person who thinks BOS is not done shopping for a starter. It might mean a trade of someone like Eovaldi if they get another arm. I don't trust Eovaldi to repeat. I'd look to sell high if I was Bloom. The Angels have been looking for short term rotation arms, for example. It would be a perfect time to sell Eovaldi if someone believes in his 2021. There's probably pretty close to a 0 percent chance eovaldi is dealt. Even with some regression he's at least a legit number 3 starter. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 13, 2021 15:26:19 GMT -5
It might mean a trade of someone like Eovaldi if they get another arm. I don't trust Eovaldi to repeat. I'd look to sell high if I was Bloom. The Angels have been looking for short term rotation arms, for example. It would be a perfect time to sell Eovaldi if someone believes in his 2021. There's probably pretty close to a 0 percent chance eovaldi is dealt. Even with some regression he's at least a legit number 3 starter. He's also one of the team's most respected leaders. I expect him to be extended.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2021 15:45:33 GMT -5
This from @bradfo this morning: << According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing Carlos Rodón. >> I guess I'm not the only person who thinks BOS is not done shopping for a starter. It might mean a trade of someone like Eovaldi if they get another arm. I don't trust Eovaldi to repeat. I'd look to sell high if I was Bloom. The Angels have been looking for short term rotation arms, for example. It would be a perfect time to sell Eovaldi if someone believes in his 2021. I actually would've kinda liked this idea if they had re-signed Eduardo. |
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 13, 2021 16:20:14 GMT -5
It might mean a trade of someone like Eovaldi if they get another arm. I don't trust Eovaldi to repeat. I'd look to sell high if I was Bloom. The Angels have been looking for short term rotation arms, for example. It would be a perfect time to sell Eovaldi if someone believes in his 2021. There's probably pretty close to a 0 percent chance eovaldi is dealt. Even with some regression he's at least a legit number 3 starter. Chaim Bloom has already dealt Eovaldi before for Jalen Beeks, while in Tampa Bay. He strikes me as a guy who prioritizes most value. If it was Dombrowski, I would probably agree with you. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 16:25:52 GMT -5
There's probably pretty close to a 0 percent chance eovaldi is dealt. Even with some regression he's at least a legit number 3 starter. Chaim Bloom has already dealt Eovaldi before for Jalen Beeks, while in Tampa Bay. He strikes me as a guy who prioritizes most value. If it was Dombrowski, I would probably agree with you. I believe that would have been Michael Silverman who dealt eovaldi since to my knowledge Bloom didn't run the Rays. Even if I'm wrong and it was Bloom that's not at all comparable to the thought of trading the teams number 2 starter before the season even starts since the Rays weren't playoff bound that year and weren't going to be able to sign eovaldi long term. |
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