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Trading for a starting pitcher in 2021-22
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 13, 2021 17:18:01 GMT -5
Chaim Bloom has already dealt Eovaldi before for Jalen Beeks, while in Tampa Bay. He strikes me as a guy who prioritizes most value. If it was Dombrowski, I would probably agree with you. I believe that would have been Michael Silverman who dealt eovaldi since to my knowledge Bloom didn't run the Rays. Even if I'm wrong and it was Bloom that's not at all comparable to the thought of trading the teams number 2 starter before the season even starts since the Rays weren't playoff bound that year and weren't going to be able to sign eovaldi long term. That's the thing. I don't see Bloom going out and extending Eovaldi with the Sox. Not to bring up the JBJ for Renfroe trade (using it as a example) in here, but Chaim executed that deal with JBJ at his lowest value and Renfroe at his peak and got 2 prospects additionally. Just one example of Bloom being a peak value guy. Eovaldi is a guy that doesn't even strike me as a traditional number 2 starter. He was hurt almost all of 2019. Came back in 2020 with so so results (albeit good peripherals). The reason why Eovaldi was so good last year was because he kept the homeruns way down. If that goes back to his normal levels, he's the same mid rotation type who might not get enough innings to make it even worth the almost 18 million he's making this year. Eovaldi's arm could blow up at any minute, too. He's had forearm surgery and Tommy John surgery. This is exactly the kind of guy I would want to trade at peak value (can't trust him to stay healthy).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2021 17:22:56 GMT -5
I believe that would have been Michael Silverman who dealt eovaldi since to my knowledge Bloom didn't run the Rays. Even if I'm wrong and it was Bloom that's not at all comparable to the thought of trading the teams number 2 starter before the season even starts since the Rays weren't playoff bound that year and weren't going to be able to sign eovaldi long term. That's the thing. I don't see Bloom going out and extending Eovaldi with the Sox. Not to bring up the JBJ for Renfroe trade (using it as a example) in here, but Chaim executed that deal with JBJ at his lowest value and Renfroe at his peak and got 2 prospects additionally. Just one example of Bloom being a peak value guy. Eovaldi is a guy that doesn't even strike me as a traditional number 2 starter. He was hurt almost all of 2019. Came back in 2020 with so so results (albeit good peripherals). The reason why Eovaldi was so good last year was because he kept the homeruns way down. If that goes back to his normal levels, he's the same mid rotation type who might not get enough innings to make it even worth the almost 18 million he's making this year. Eovaldi's arm could blow up at any minute, too. He's had forearm surgery and Tommy John surgery. This is exactly the kind of guy I would want to trade at peak value (can't trust him to stay healthy). They're not going to trade Eovaldi unless they're out of it in July. A team with expectations of going deep into the playoffs doesn't deal away their quasi-ace. I do think that he won't be extended. He has another year like he did last season, and with his K/BB ratio, it's quite possible, he'll command at least 25 - 30 million/year for 4 - 5 years. I don't see the Sox taking that kind of plunge. Rather they'll like make a QO, and then collect the draft pick, if that's still how it works after the new CBA gets ratified.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 13, 2021 17:38:35 GMT -5
That's the thing. I don't see Bloom going out and extending Eovaldi with the Sox. Not to bring up the JBJ for Renfroe trade (using it as a example) in here, but Chaim executed that deal with JBJ at his lowest value and Renfroe at his peak and got 2 prospects additionally. Just one example of Bloom being a peak value guy. Eovaldi is a guy that doesn't even strike me as a traditional number 2 starter. He was hurt almost all of 2019. Came back in 2020 with so so results (albeit good peripherals). The reason why Eovaldi was so good last year was because he kept the homeruns way down. If that goes back to his normal levels, he's the same mid rotation type who might not get enough innings to make it even worth the almost 18 million he's making this year. Eovaldi's arm could blow up at any minute, too. He's had forearm surgery and Tommy John surgery. This is exactly the kind of guy I would want to trade at peak value (can't trust him to stay healthy). They're not going to trade Eovaldi unless they're out of it in July. A team with expectations of going deep into the playoffs doesn't deal away their quasi-ace. I do think that he won't be extended. He has another year like he did last season, and with his K/BB ratio, it's quite possible, he'll command at least 25 - 30 million/year for 4 - 5 years. I don't see the Sox taking that kind of plunge. Rather they'll like make a QO, and then collect the draft pick, if that's still how it works after the new CBA gets ratified. Yes this is how I'm seeing it too, I'm of the mind this will be Eovaldi's last in Boston. He'll play out the year and if healthy command a larger deal than Bloom will be willing to do, at least based off his track record the last 2 offseasons. If not healthy than Bloom probably doesn't sign him either unless it's his preferred 1 year with an option deal. If they're out of it at the deadline they'd probably look to move him.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 13, 2021 17:56:03 GMT -5
Actually, looking back at Eovaldi's stats, he's been quite good for quite a while now - when he's healthy. He has FIP/xFIP numbers in the 3.30-3.80 range consistently since 2014, except for his injury years of 2016 and 2019. And of course last season was his best yet, with a FIP of 2.79 and an xERA of 3.37.
But how do you valuate a guy like that who'll be a free agent going on his age-33 season? Any contract would be high-risk/high-reward. And I agree with others who don't think Bloom is the one who is going to take that gamble. After all, he didn't even do it with a 27-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Dec 13, 2021 18:11:33 GMT -5
Actually, looking back at Eovaldi's stats, he's been quite good for quite a while now - when he's healthy. He has FIP/xFIP numbers in the 3.30-3.80 range consistently since 2014, except for his injury years of 2016 and 2019. And of course last season was his best yet, with a FIP of 2.79 and an xERA of 3.37. But how do you valuate a guy like that who'll be a free agent going on his age-33 season? Any contract would be high-risk/high-reward. And I agree with others who don't think Bloom is the one who is going to take that gamble. After all, he didn't even do it with a 27-year-old Eduardo Rodriguez. I’d be fine with letting him walk. I mean… sad, cause I like him, but I’d get it. But this talk of *trading him* (not you, generally) is madness unless they just implode.
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Post by soxaddict on Dec 13, 2021 18:30:22 GMT -5
This from @bradfo this morning: << According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing Carlos Rodón. >> I guess I'm not the only person who thinks BOS is not done shopping for a starter. I think Bloom absolutely adds another starter, but I expect it to be on a one year deal. The way he’s constructing the staff, Matthew Boyd is a perfect fit. In 2021, his season era was 3.89 but pitching on at least 6 days rest, he had an era of 0.83. Same with Wacha. He had a 5.05 era in 2021, but he started 9 games on 6+ days rest, and his era was 2.82 in those games. I can’t see him moving any assets for a starter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 13, 2021 19:29:04 GMT -5
There's probably pretty close to a 0 percent chance eovaldi is dealt. Even with some regression he's at least a legit number 3 starter. Chaim Bloom has already dealt Eovaldi before for Jalen Beeks, while in Tampa Bay. He strikes me as a guy who prioritizes most value. If it was Dombrowski, I would probably agree with you. Once again, Bloom was never in charge in Tampa.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 13, 2021 21:17:09 GMT -5
Chaim Bloom has already dealt Eovaldi before for Jalen Beeks, while in Tampa Bay. He strikes me as a guy who prioritizes most value. If it was Dombrowski, I would probably agree with you. Once again, Bloom was never in charge in Tampa. Why you say once again? He was part of the process of the deal, even if he wasn't the one making the call.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2021 21:21:57 GMT -5
Once again, Bloom was never in charge in Tampa. Why you say once again? He was part of the process of the deal, even if he wasn't the one making the call. Maybe he was adamantly against it and got overridden. In any event, he is not in charge in Tampa NOW. He has a huge budget and doesn't have to trade Eovaldi. I mean what more would Bloom want more than Eovaldi on a 1 year $17 million contract?
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 13, 2021 21:25:29 GMT -5
That's the thing. I don't see Bloom going out and extending Eovaldi with the Sox. Not to bring up the JBJ for Renfroe trade (using it as a example) in here, but Chaim executed that deal with JBJ at his lowest value and Renfroe at his peak and got 2 prospects additionally. Just one example of Bloom being a peak value guy. Eovaldi is a guy that doesn't even strike me as a traditional number 2 starter. He was hurt almost all of 2019. Came back in 2020 with so so results (albeit good peripherals). The reason why Eovaldi was so good last year was because he kept the homeruns way down. If that goes back to his normal levels, he's the same mid rotation type who might not get enough innings to make it even worth the almost 18 million he's making this year. Eovaldi's arm could blow up at any minute, too. He's had forearm surgery and Tommy John surgery. This is exactly the kind of guy I would want to trade at peak value (can't trust him to stay healthy). They're not going to trade Eovaldi unless they're out of it in July. A team with expectations of going deep into the playoffs doesn't deal away their quasi-ace. I do think that he won't be extended. He has another year like he did last season, and with his K/BB ratio, it's quite possible, he'll command at least 25 - 30 million/year for 4 - 5 years. I don't see the Sox taking that kind of plunge. Rather they'll like make a QO, and then collect the draft pick, if that's still how it works after the new CBA gets ratified. I respectfully disagree on the fact that I don't see Eovaldi as a quasi-ace or number 2 type starter. Whatever you want to call him. He gave up 8 percent homeruns on flyballs. He had a career year. If he gives up another 5 percent of homeruns (let's just call it 5-6 homeruns on fly balls), he has a ERA close to 4. Which is right around where he's been his whole career. That's a solid mid rotation type for sure, but not overvalued as a top of the rotation starter.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 13, 2021 21:27:35 GMT -5
Why you say once again? He was part of the process of the deal, even if he wasn't the one making the call. Maybe he was adamantly against it and got overridden. In any event, he is not in charge in Tampa NOW. He has a huge budget and doesn't have to trade Eovaldi. I mean what more would Bloom want more than Eovaldi on a 1 year $17 million contract? Why do you keep going back "he has a big budget" in every discussion it seems like? What are other teams offering for Eovaldi? I can't answer. You can't answer. There's value there for a guy you're clearly not moving forward with.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 13, 2021 21:32:44 GMT -5
Blooms job is to find value and put together a sustainable winning product. Trading Eovaldi sets up the future. Signing Rodón replaces him a bit with a suitable replacement (both guys unpredictable with injury history).
Add- Freeing up Eovaldi cash could create fillings for other areas (bullpen for example).
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 13, 2021 21:50:38 GMT -5
The lockout is sad thing. The lockup combined with the low quality and repetitive nature of so many recent posts on various threads is a very sad thing.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2021 21:51:25 GMT -5
Maybe he was adamantly against it and got overridden. In any event, he is not in charge in Tampa NOW. He has a huge budget and doesn't have to trade Eovaldi. I mean what more would Bloom want more than Eovaldi on a 1 year $17 million contract? Why do you keep going back "he has a big budget" in every discussion it seems like? What are other teams offering for Eovaldi? I can't answer. You can't answer. There's value there for a guy you're clearly not moving forward with. I said that because Tampa was operating with a miniscule budget and absolutely had to trade guys like Eovaldi every year to be successful. The Red Sox do not have to do that.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 13, 2021 22:02:59 GMT -5
A lot of love for Sean Manaea as a one-year rental. I could get behind that. He threw 179.1 IP last year and with only one year of control, you have to figure he won't break the bank in terms of prospects. Steamer projects him for 3 fWAR.
EDIT: I think I'd prefer one year of Manaea for a couple mid-tier prospects over one year of Rodon for straight cash, homey.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 13, 2021 22:36:24 GMT -5
They're not going to trade Eovaldi unless they're out of it in July. A team with expectations of going deep into the playoffs doesn't deal away their quasi-ace. I do think that he won't be extended. He has another year like he did last season, and with his K/BB ratio, it's quite possible, he'll command at least 25 - 30 million/year for 4 - 5 years. I don't see the Sox taking that kind of plunge. Rather they'll like make a QO, and then collect the draft pick, if that's still how it works after the new CBA gets ratified. I respectfully disagree on the fact that I don't see Eovaldi as a quasi-ace or number 2 type starter. Whatever you want to call him. He gave up 8 percent homeruns on flyballs. He had a career year. If he gives up another 5 percent of homeruns (let's just call it 5-6 homeruns on fly balls), he has a ERA close to 4. Which is right around where he's been his whole career. That's a solid mid rotation type for sure, but not overvalued as a top of the rotation starter. While you have more of Eovaldi's flyball leaving the yard you're also forgetting that if the Sox had better defense that would have lowered his ERA closer to his FIP which was well below his ERA. Eovaldi, when healthy, is a quasi-ace or at worst a #2 starter. The Red Sox plan on seriously competing this year. They're not winning a damn thing this year if they trade away their best starter before the season begins. 2022 at this point has a lot of value. They're not punting it away. He's not being traded unless they collapse by midseason. Honestly I dont know how one could see it any other way at this point.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 13, 2021 23:08:36 GMT -5
Some interesting stuff, looking at splits of the guys from this list.
You've got three guys from OAK who pitch in a cavernous home park with huge foul territory. OTOH, there are three guys from hitters' parks in COL and CIN.
Manaea and Montas had pretty even splits in 2021 between home and road but Bassitt's were extreme. He pitched way better at home than on the road although his road numbers were still pretty good.
Somehow, Marquez was much better in Coors Field than on the road. Castillo also was better at Great American Ballpark than on the road, while Mahle showed an expected split of being better on the road than at home. (However, Mahle had pronounced reverse splits against lefty swingers in 2021.)
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 14, 2021 0:39:10 GMT -5
Blooms job is to find value and put together a sustainable winning product. Trading Eovaldi sets up the future. Signing Rodón replaces him a bit with a suitable replacement (both guys unpredictable with injury history). Add- Freeing up Eovaldi cash could create fillings for other areas (bullpen for example). If Bloom traded Eovaldi for some elite prospect and then went on to sign Rodon, we’re not going to be freeing up money but that would be a hell of a move to improve the farm even more by trading someone with 1 year left then replacing them with someone very similar.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 14, 2021 10:17:57 GMT -5
Once again, Bloom was never in charge in Tampa. Why you say once again? He was part of the process of the deal, even if he wasn't the one making the call. Because Bloom was barely even second in command in Tampa (behind, at various times, Friedman, Silverman, and Neander), but a lot of people cite to what Tampa did while he was there like Bloom was the one making the calls. Sure, he was part of the process but we have no idea what he himself thought at a given time. Was more of a point separate from the specific discussion, but to say "he" made the Eovaldi for Beeks trade just isn't really correct at all. I probably should've said that I agree with your general point re: Bloom favoring the acquisition of value.
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Post by voiceofreason on Dec 14, 2021 18:10:35 GMT -5
Blooms job is to find value and put together a sustainable winning product. Trading Eovaldi sets up the future. Signing Rodón replaces him a bit with a suitable replacement (both guys unpredictable with injury history). Add- Freeing up Eovaldi cash could create fillings for other areas (bullpen for example). If Bloom traded Eovaldi for some elite prospect and then went on to sign Rodon, we’re not going to be freeing up money but that would be a hell of a move to improve the farm even more by trading someone with 1 year left then replacing them with someone very similar. At first glance and thought I say no Bloom would not trade Eovaldi and I wouldn't want to either. But if the Sox signed Rodon and got a great prospect for him in a trade I would have to rethink that. But in the end I just don't see that happening because trades need to make sense for both sides and who is going to make that trade for Eovaldi when they could just sign Rodon themselves and not give anything up. That is just one way of looking at it but I just don't see that premise adding up. Sometimes I think people here think there are some dumb GMs out there. Yes they make mistakes but that doesn't mean they are stupid, I don't think stupid people make it that far up the chain of billion dollar enterprises. But of course I could be wrong given what we all see them do, like nontendering Rodon after a 40m dollar season.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2021 9:27:45 GMT -5
This from @bradfo this morning: << According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing Carlos Rodón. >> I guess I'm not the only person who thinks BOS is not done shopping for a starter. I highly doubt BOS out bids those other teams! Just because they show interest does not mean they will put out the needed money to get Rodon. I Lol at MLBtrade rumors that they may as well write that every team is interested in every player…… It is just content with them. I agree. I think somebody will crack and give Rodon a couple of years, and I don't think it will be Bloom. I also don't see him spending the $20 plus million/year for a big question mark like that. It's more likely he trades for an Oakland starting pitcher, but even that I don't think he does. I think more than likely his idea is that by time the season is in July or August that Garrett Whitlock will be his #3 starter behind Eovaldi and Sale. He'll go with Pivetta, Hill, and Wacha to fill in behind Eovaldi and Sale to start the season and when somebody gets hurt Houck will probably get first crack. Houck and Whitlock will probably start off as 2 - 3 inning pitchers, the way they used Andriese last April. My guess is that instead of adding starters Bloom will load up in the bullpen. He'll get the two short relievers he mentioned that he needed to get (identity unknown), and he'll probably get a few put em up against the wall and see what sticks kind of guys with the idea that one or two step forward to eventually free Whitlock and Houck for rotation duty although injuries to Hill and ineffectiveness by Wacha are more likelier reasons that will force Whitlock and Houck into the rotation at some point. The hope is that they'll have guys available to fill the middle/piggyback kind of roles Whitlock and Houck will start off in before they get stretched out enough to join the rotation. So I think Bloom spends his remaining money on a RF, a cheap 2b, and probably about 10 - 12 million for 2 short relievers and a few million more for pitching experiments/relievers.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2021 10:49:43 GMT -5
I highly doubt BOS out bids those other teams! Just because they show interest does not mean they will put out the needed money to get Rodon. I Lol at MLBtrade rumors that they may as well write that every team is interested in every player…… It is just content with them. I agree. I think somebody will crack and give Rodon a couple of years, and I don't think it will be Bloom. I also don't see him spending the $20 plus million/year for a big question mark like that. It's more likely he trades for an Oakland starting pitcher, but even that I don't think he does. I think more than likely his idea is that by time the season is in July or August that Garrett Whitlock will be his #3 starter behind Eovaldi and Sale. He'll go with Pivetta, Hill, and Wacha to fill in behind Eovaldi and Sale to start the season and when somebody gets hurt Houck will probably get first crack. Houck and Whitlock will probably start off as 2 - 3 inning pitchers, the way they used Andriese last April. My guess is that instead of adding starters Bloom will load up in the bullpen. He'll get the two short relievers he mentioned that he needed to get (identity unknown), and he'll probably get a few put em up against the wall and see what sticks kind of guys with the idea that one or two step forward to eventually free Whitlock and Houck for rotation duty although injuries to Hill and ineffectiveness by Wacha are more likelier reasons that will force Whitlock and Houck into the rotation at some point. The hope is that they'll have guys available to fill the middle/piggyback kind of roles Whitlock and Houck will start off in before they get stretched out enough to join the rotation. So I think Bloom spends his remaining money on a RF, a cheap 2b, and probably about 10 - 12 million for 2 short relievers and a few million more for pitching experiments/relievers. I think you're probably right on target with what Bloom does. However I think he waits in the weeds on a guy like Pineda and maybe strikes if he can be had on a 1 year deal.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 29, 2021 11:25:07 GMT -5
I agree. I think somebody will crack and give Rodon a couple of years, and I don't think it will be Bloom. I also don't see him spending the $20 plus million/year for a big question mark like that. It's more likely he trades for an Oakland starting pitcher, but even that I don't think he does. I think more than likely his idea is that by time the season is in July or August that Garrett Whitlock will be his #3 starter behind Eovaldi and Sale. He'll go with Pivetta, Hill, and Wacha to fill in behind Eovaldi and Sale to start the season and when somebody gets hurt Houck will probably get first crack. Houck and Whitlock will probably start off as 2 - 3 inning pitchers, the way they used Andriese last April. My guess is that instead of adding starters Bloom will load up in the bullpen. He'll get the two short relievers he mentioned that he needed to get (identity unknown), and he'll probably get a few put em up against the wall and see what sticks kind of guys with the idea that one or two step forward to eventually free Whitlock and Houck for rotation duty although injuries to Hill and ineffectiveness by Wacha are more likelier reasons that will force Whitlock and Houck into the rotation at some point. The hope is that they'll have guys available to fill the middle/piggyback kind of roles Whitlock and Houck will start off in before they get stretched out enough to join the rotation. So I think Bloom spends his remaining money on a RF, a cheap 2b, and probably about 10 - 12 million for 2 short relievers and a few million more for pitching experiments/relievers. I think you're probably right on target with what Bloom does. However I think he waits in the weeds on a guy like Pineda and maybe strikes if he can be had on a 1 year deal. If he comes reasonably cheaply, I could see that. I can see Bloom playing musical chairs and signing whoever is left over.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 29, 2021 11:45:45 GMT -5
I think you're probably right on target with what Bloom does. However I think he waits in the weeds on a guy like Pineda and maybe strikes if he can be had on a 1 year deal. If he comes reasonably cheaply, I could see that. I can see Bloom playing musical chairs and signing whoever is left over. Yes, Pineda was just the first guy who came to mind. As you put it I think he'll wait out the market and add one more starter as a throw at the wall type of guy. Edit: just took a look at the available starter options and another guy who jumped out at me is Kwang Hyun Kim. Lefty who has put up some decent numbers as a starter and some good numbers as a reliever for the cardinals. Shouldn't cost too much and offers some of the flexibility to float between roles.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 29, 2021 11:52:45 GMT -5
This from @bradfo this morning: << According to the Chicago-area Daily-Herald, the Red Sox have joined the Angels, Mariners, Yankees and Dodgers as teams interested in signing Carlos Rodón. >> I guess I'm not the only person who thinks BOS is not done shopping for a starter. I highly doubt BOS out bids those other teams! Just because they show interest does not mean they will put out the needed money to get Rodon. I Lol at MLBtrade rumors that they may as well write that every team is interested in every player…… It is just content with them. Not saying they'll outbid everyone for Rodon, just saying they are linked to a prominent starting pitcher when for a while many on this board were saying that they were done shopping for a starter. I don't think they're done. You can say "well, everyone links the Red Sox to every FA just to get clicks and/or their agent invented it to bump his client's market," and both undoubtedly happen all the time. But in this report the MFYs, LAA and LAD are already in there. Did this Chicago writer really need to add BOS to boost the story? My main point was that a Red Sox beat writer (Bradford) reposted the Chicago writer's story and didn't say "This is dumb, the Sox already have enough starters." So, I'm not the only one who thinks they're not done shopping for a starter.
Whether it's Rodon or a trade target, I'd feel much more comfortable in April if they added a legit 2/3 starter from outside the organization this winter.
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