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Who should be the Red Sox closer in 2022?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 14, 2021 19:41:55 GMT -5
Kind of surprising that the bullpen, and the closer role in particular, hasn’t been hashed out endlessly already in these pages. There’s a bullpen thread that is still on its first page and now here’s a closer-specific thread (with a poll!) to focus on the most important role in the bullpen. The closer’s job is a thankless one. If you fail, you’re the reason why your team lost the game/series. If you succeed, well, you were supposed to. Jonathan Papelbon saved 219 games for the Sox over six years, pumping his fist in celebration after 8 of every 9 save opportunities (a higher success rate than Koji in '13). But boy did he hear it from people like us on that ninth one.
A closer needs to pitch well enough in the regular season to keep the job into the playoffs but if you stumble at the finish line, look out. When you saw Papelbon’s name just now, if you’re like me, your first memory was the game in Baltimore that launched Chicken-and-beer-gate. I type ‘Craig Kimbrel’ and instantly get the shivers from the memory of the 2018 playoffs — in which he was 6-for-6 in save opportunities. Indeed, he has never blown a playoff save opportunity. And man, was he good in the regular season...
The 2021 Red Sox had one of the best closers in the game… until he pitched in both ends of a double-header in August and was never the same afterwards (coincidence or not, that’s what happened). Ten different pitchers, including Matt Barnes, recorded saves for the Red Sox last season. Will 2022 see more of the same or will one guy take the job and run with it? Or will it be one guy’s job to lose going into spring training? The field is still wide open. Who do you think it should be? |
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Post by manfred on Dec 14, 2021 19:49:36 GMT -5
They are paying Barnes to close for now. If he can’t hack it, I’d sadly go Whitlock next — might be a waste if he can start. But I am not down with signing Jansen or whomever.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 14, 2021 21:17:46 GMT -5
2022's closer is not yet on the team - and I have no idea who it will be. The answer is NOT Barnes.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 14, 2021 22:10:48 GMT -5
I have no idea.
My guess is Bloom trades for somebody I've never considered. And he probably spends money on an established free agent.
Things happen in 3s, so under the theme of former Red Sox rejoining the team, I'll guess the Sox bring back Joe Kelly to add to JBJ and Rich Hill.
Since activating Jonathan Papelbon from the NESN broadcast booth or attaching Koji Uehara to a Seyia Suzuki signing is not an option, I'd say the guy on the roster already who might make the best closer is Nick Pivetta. He strikes me as an adrenaline junkie. He might give up too many walks and/or HRs to succeed, but if he can't be more than a 4th starter maybe he should get a look at closer if they don't bring somebody else in.
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Post by jmei on Dec 14, 2021 22:21:01 GMT -5
If Matt Barnes were a free agent, he’d be one of the better relief pitchers available and a good contingent here would be clamoring to re-sign him.
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Post by baseball3 on Dec 14, 2021 22:42:56 GMT -5
I have no idea. My guess is Bloom trades for somebody I've never considered. And he probably spends money on an established free agent. Things happen in 3s, so under the theme of former Red Sox rejoining the team, I'll guess the Sox bring back Joe Kelly to add to JBJ and Rich Hill. Since activating Jonathan Papelbon from the NESN broadcast booth or attaching Koji Uehara to a Seyia Suzuki signing is not an option, I'd say the guy on the roster already who might make the best closer is Nick Pivetta. He strikes me as an adrenaline junkie. He might give up too many walks and/or HRs to succeed, but if he can't be more than a 4th starter maybe he should get a look at closer if they don't bring somebody else in. Yeah this is the best post. You can't even begin to guess who's the closer. Really you won't know until the end of spring training when it's all sorted out. Even then, there might be a Mery go round of closers in season. I think Pivetta is too valuable starting. He was a good fifth starter last year. My guess is Michael Wacha if it had to be someone on the roster. Wacha is a 2 pitch mix guy anyways. Fastball. Great changeup. Occasional breaking ball. Those fastball/changeup guys do well in one inning short bursts. I'm surprised no one has tried Wacha as a short reliever before. Wouldn't surprise me if the smart Alex Cora tries it. I think Wacha could be a low key good late inning reliever. His fastball would play up better with more velocity. I've repeated this from the other bullpen thread. |
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hank
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Post by hank on Dec 15, 2021 13:44:25 GMT -5
Maybe Barnes bounces back. First half season Barnes is exactly what we need. Not sure how likely it is but as someone said we're paying him to do it so he needs to be in the mix
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Post by incandenza on Dec 15, 2021 13:47:27 GMT -5
If I were Bloom, I would simply figure out which erstwhile lockdown closers were going to turn into pumpkins and which guys were going to come out of nowhere to have a 1.50 ERA and plan accordingly.
(But the real way to plan around the complete unpredictability of reliever performance is quantity>quality. Also, save your best pitchers for multi-inning roles.)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2021 13:51:25 GMT -5
Where's "ask me once the lockout ends and we see who they sign?"
Also, they are not "paying Barnes to close." He's making good setup man money. His contract is comparable to Treinen's.
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Post by manfred on Dec 15, 2021 14:12:46 GMT -5
Where's "ask me once the lockout ends and we see who they sign?" Also, they are not "paying Barnes to close." He's making good setup man money. His contract is comparable to Treinen's. OK… they resigned him when he was closing. Let’s see how he does. I hate signing Jansen, who does not seem much better than Barnes. |
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 15, 2021 14:12:51 GMT -5
I'm expecting Barnes to bounce back this year. I feel the heavy use in the first half of the year hurt him after the ASB, and I'm sure the who COVID saga didn't help either. If he pitches even close to how he did at the beginning of the year last year, he'd be a solid closing option. If he falters, though, I'm not bothered by a SIRP committee approach. Playing the matchups is smart and it could help down the stretch to have a wider range of guys used to pitching in high-leverage situations. Barring injury, I think it's likely that Houck or Whitlock starts the year in the bullpen too, meaning one of them could help out with the closing duties in a reprise of the 2021 Whitlock role (i.e. they'd pitch the most pivotal innings of the game regardless of whether or not it's 9th).
I don't like the idea of pulling Pivetta out of the rotation unless he underperforms. He's probably our 3 starter going into the year at he ate 155 innings last year. I also don't like the idea of spending big on a bona fide closer like Jansen, and I don't think it's likely we can find a closing quality player with just a Bloomian "diamond in the rough" / Zach Galifianakis meme approach.
I'd prefer to just round out the bullpen with a couple of decent SIRPs to help take the load off Barnes. Not even setup men, but still useful players. I'm thinking guys like Robles last year, or Sawamura before he got COVID and forgot how to throw strikes.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 15, 2021 14:22:58 GMT -5
By the end of 2022, I expect James Paxton will be the Sox closer. He's a big time strikeout pitcher and he may not have the stamina in 2022 to start.
Until then, hoping for a competition between Barnes and Trevor Rosenthal.
Josh Taylor (was sneaky good last year - just needs to get the BBs down a bit and improve vs RHHs) and Kutter Crawford (I think he could earn a place in the bullpen right now, but ceiling may not be this high) as my dark horse candidates.
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Post by manfred on Dec 15, 2021 14:26:10 GMT -5
By the end of 2022, I expect James Paxton will be the Sox closer. He's a big time strikeout pitcher and he may not have the stamina in 2022 to start. Until then, hoping for a competition between Barnes and Trevor Rosenthal. Josh Taylor (was sneaky good last year - just needs to get the BBs down a bit and improve vs RHHs) and Kutter Crawford (I think he could earn a place in the bullpen right now, but ceiling may not be this high) as my dark horse candidates. If they could sign Rosenthal to a minor league deal, I’d be pleased. But he is a crazy health risk. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2021 14:28:23 GMT -5
Where's "ask me once the lockout ends and we see who they sign?" Also, they are not "paying Barnes to close." He's making good setup man money. His contract is comparable to Treinen's. OK… they resigned him when he was closing. Let’s see how he does. I hate signing Jansen, who does not seem much better than Barnes. There's a lot of space between Jansen and Barnes. There's Tepera, Chafin, Kelly, and all kinds of bounceback candidates and old guys, plus the trade market. And also, if they indeed go out and sign yet another starter like Rodon, I think that puts Whitlock and Houck pretty firmly into the discussion. BTW, just to further make the contract point, just look at the RP contracts signed in 2018: www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2018/type/dollars/position/rp and compare to Barnes' 2/18.5 guarantee. Also consider that Barnes' deal is comparable to Aaron Loup's and Kendall Graveman's this offseason. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 15, 2021 14:35:25 GMT -5
By the end of 2022, I expect James Paxton will be the Sox closer. He's a big time strikeout pitcher and he may not have the stamina in 2022 to start. I'd be surprised if they let Paxton pitch on back to back days next season. |
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Post by manfred on Dec 15, 2021 14:45:32 GMT -5
OK… they resigned him when he was closing. Let’s see how he does. I hate signing Jansen, who does not seem much better than Barnes. There's a lot of space between Jansen and Barnes. There's Tepera, Chafin, Kelly, and all kinds of bounceback candidates and old guys, plus the trade market. And also, if they indeed go out and sign yet another starter like Rodon, I think that puts Whitlock and Houck pretty firmly into the discussion. BTW, just to further make the contract point, just look at the RP contracts signed in 2018: www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2018/type/dollars/position/rp and compare to Barnes' 2/18.5 guarantee. Also consider that Barnes' deal is comparable to Aaron Loup's and Kendall Graveman's this offseason. Fair. Jansen is better. I think I’m biased because he’s looked shaky when I’ve watched him, which is a small sample. So he makes me nervous. But you are right… he’s definitely better. |
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 15, 2021 14:48:25 GMT -5
By the end of 2022, I expect James Paxton will be the Sox closer. He's a big time strikeout pitcher and he may not have the stamina in 2022 to start. I'd be surprised if they let Paxton pitch on back to back days next season. I don't doubt it, but that also doesn't preclude him from closing. If you send your closer out on back to back nights too often, no matter who they are, you're risking a 2021 Matt Barnes situation. Other guys could certainly fill in on days he rests. |
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 15, 2021 14:50:23 GMT -5
By the end of 2022, I expect James Paxton will be the Sox closer. He's a big time strikeout pitcher and he may not have the stamina in 2022 to start. I'd be surprised if they let Paxton pitch on back to back days next season. Back-to-backs aren't common anymore for closers (Barnes had 16 out of 60 games last year of pitching twice on the same day or on consecutive days) - given Paxton won't be available until the second half of the season, and there are more off-days in the playoffs, I don't see this as a major issue. It's also questionable whether back-to-backs or multiple innings will be the primary driver. Either way, I expect Paxton will have a major role come the end of the season. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 15, 2021 16:14:22 GMT -5
There's a lot of space between Jansen and Barnes. There's Tepera, Chafin, Kelly, and all kinds of bounceback candidates and old guys, plus the trade market. And also, if they indeed go out and sign yet another starter like Rodon, I think that puts Whitlock and Houck pretty firmly into the discussion. BTW, just to further make the contract point, just look at the RP contracts signed in 2018: www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2018/type/dollars/position/rp and compare to Barnes' 2/18.5 guarantee. Also consider that Barnes' deal is comparable to Aaron Loup's and Kendall Graveman's this offseason. Fair. Jansen is better. I think I’m biased because he’s looked shaky when I’ve watched him, which is a small sample. So he makes me nervous. But you are right… he’s definitely better. Oh don't get me wrong Jansen scares the crap out of me. I'm saying that it's not like it's sign a Closer(TM), of which Jensen is the only one left on the market, or stick with Barnes. I'm guessing it's highly likely that the "closer" is not going to be the same guy all year unless they swing a trade for someone. But as much as I'd love, say, Trivino, I don't know that I want to make another Kimbrel trade either. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 15, 2021 18:33:11 GMT -5
Where's "ask me once the lockout ends and we see who they sign?" Also, they are not "paying Barnes to close." He's making good setup man money. His contract is comparable to Treinen's. The question is "Who SHOULD be the closer?" Not "Who WILL be the closer?"
I'm asking my respected confreres here for their opinions (of which they all clearly have many) on a pretty big piece of the off-season puzzle.
I could ask you the same thing: Why rank prospects when you can just wait to see which ones pan out, which ones don't, and which ones get traded?
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Post by jl1947 on Dec 15, 2021 18:47:02 GMT -5
Where's "ask me once the lockout ends and we see who they sign?" Also, they are not "paying Barnes to close." He's making good setup man money. His contract is comparable to Treinen's. The question is "Who SHOULD be the closer?" Not "Who WILL be the closer?"
I'm asking my respected confreres here for their opinions (of which they all clearly have many) on a pretty big piece of the off-season puzzle.
I could ask you the same thing: Why rank prospects when you can just wait to see which ones pan out, which ones don't, and which ones get traded?
Please tell me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this seem like a little bit of a non-sequitur response! |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 15, 2021 19:02:10 GMT -5
There's a lot of space between Jansen and Barnes. There's Tepera, Chafin, Kelly, and all kinds of bounceback candidates and old guys, plus the trade market. And also, if they indeed go out and sign yet another starter like Rodon, I think that puts Whitlock and Houck pretty firmly into the discussion. BTW, just to further make the contract point, just look at the RP contracts signed in 2018: www.espn.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2018/type/dollars/position/rp and compare to Barnes' 2/18.5 guarantee. Also consider that Barnes' deal is comparable to Aaron Loup's and Kendall Graveman's this offseason. Fair. Jansen is better. I think I’m biased because he’s looked shaky when I’ve watched him, which is a small sample. So he makes me nervous. But you are right… he’s definitely better. Jansen had a .501 OPS-against in 2021. That's pretty good, particularly since he was using a much different pitch mix than in the past. He also has 350 career saves in 395 opportunities, which is about 8 out of 9, or the same rate as Papelbon with the Sox. Last year he was 38 of 43, which is right on that same track.
I considered Chafin for the poll but he has 8 career saves in 18 opportunities, so I left him off the list. SSS but seriously, he doesn't appear to relish the role.
I'd also hardly say Kelly > Barnes. They're not that different. Indeed, Barnes has a half-season of being an All-Star closer under his belt, which Kelly does not have. I put Kelly on the list because he's a known commodity and available.
I thought about including Ottavino and Robles on the list but it was already getting long. I wouldn't be shocked if Robles was back in Boston in 2022 or even if he wound up winning the closer's job as the season went along, assuming they don't sign a guy like Jansen.
Re: Barnes's extension, I think it's good for both sides. There's nothing that says he can't recover the same form he had in the first half last year and be an effective closer again. From his side, he had just turned 31, had $11.4m in career earnings, and saw Kelly walk off with a $27m deal a few years ago. He must've jumped at the prospect of $18.5m more guaranteed, plus incentives. The fear of injury must hang over those guys 24/7.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 15, 2021 19:11:35 GMT -5
The question is "Who SHOULD be the closer?" Not "Who WILL be the closer?"
I'm asking my respected confreres here for their opinions (of which they all clearly have many) on a pretty big piece of the off-season puzzle.
I could ask you the same thing: Why rank prospects when you can just wait to see which ones pan out, which ones don't, and which ones get traded?
Please tell me if I'm wrong, but doesn't this seem like a little bit of a non-sequitur response! Not sure what you mean. Chris asked why there wasn't a "Let's wait and see who they sign" option in a poll asking people who they thought should be the closer. If you wait and then see who it is, how can you say who it should be? (I guess you could but then you're just tilting at windmills.)
Also I thought it was odd that this was Chris's response, given that the whole foundation of this website is saying which prospects should be valued higher than the others. If your stance is "wait and see," why not wait and see how the prospects turn out too?
It's all in good fun, of course; we're just talking about baseball, not the death penalty or global thermonuclear war. I just thought it was an ironic response from Chris.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Dec 15, 2021 19:17:52 GMT -5
Fair. Jansen is better. I think I’m biased because he’s looked shaky when I’ve watched him, which is a small sample. So he makes me nervous. But you are right… he’s definitely better. Oh don't get me wrong Jansen scares the crap out of me. I'm saying that it's not like it's sign a Closer(TM), of which Jensen is the only one left on the market, or stick with Barnes. I'm guessing it's highly likely that the "closer" is not going to be the same guy all year unless they swing a trade for someone. But as much as I'd love, say, Trivino, I don't know that I want to make another Kimbrel trade either. I whiffed on Trivino. He would've been a good option in the poll since there are no other trade candidates. Three years of cheap control but already 30. Interesting option. |
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Post by incandenza on Dec 15, 2021 19:26:55 GMT -5
Fair. Jansen is better. I think I’m biased because he’s looked shaky when I’ve watched him, which is a small sample. So he makes me nervous. But you are right… he’s definitely better. Oh don't get me wrong Jansen scares the crap out of me. I'm saying that it's not like it's sign a Closer(TM), of which Jensen is the only one left on the market, or stick with Barnes. I'm guessing it's highly likely that the "closer" is not going to be the same guy all year unless they swing a trade for someone. But as much as I'd love, say, Trivino, I don't know that I want to make another Kimbrel trade either.I know it was kind of an aside, but I'm confused by this.
1) Why would you love a reliever with a career FIP of 4? Don't we already have half a dozen of those guys?
2) Why would this be comparable in any way to a Kimbrel trade?
I don't want to come within a thousand miles of the Carson Smith trade, let alone the Kimbrel trade, let alone for Trivino.
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