2022 Red Sox Projections from various sources

ZIPS is just looking at their performance record and doesn't know the specifics of their injury history.  It's going to miss the mark when that information is important.

Also, I don't think it'd be crazy for a projection system to look at his IP the last four years (158, 147.1, 0, 42.2) and think he might not make 100 innings. It appears to have done similar with Paxton (160.1, 150, 20.1, 1.1).

Just ignore playing time projections from automated projection systems.

Frankly, I'll be (pleasantly) surprised if Paxton matches Sale's 42 IP from last year.

When I look at mlbtraderumors.com and they have their chats I'm always surprised at how they don't connect Suzuki to the Red Sox and have Schwarber more likely to return. They have Suzuki most likely to wind up in Texas or on the West Coast. I don't think the Sox are a slam dunk by any means but I think they have greater interest than indicated and are at least a reasonable possibility.

I doubt Verdugo winds up in RF. Likely they either get a RF, Suzuki most likely, and they start off with JBJ in CF (don't buy that 4th OF stuff) and Hernandez at 2b. Maybe I'm wrong and JBJ is the 4th OF and Arroyo is the starting 2b. I'm just not sold on that or that. Maybe the Sox get a cheap option like Iglesias or Josh Harrison or Jed Lowrie (don't see McNeil there although I think his bat would fit well).

But perhaps if they don't wind up with Suzuki they enter into a 3 year deal with Story and they wind up with Hernandez and JBJ manning CF and RF (I'd guess JBJ winds up in CF with Hernandez in RF?)

But I think those scenarios are more likely than the Sox bringing back Schwarber in LF (or Soler or Pham) and pushing Verdugo back into RF.

Verdugo isn't usually 100% too often. I think playing RF versus LF could wear him out more, but yeah, if he's healthy he should be able to man RF. I figured given JBJ's long track record in CF, that CF would probably make the most sense for him, but I can see it your way.

I just hope we don't have to find out. I'm hoping the Sox get enough of a bat who can play 2b to share with Arroyo so that Hernandez can be the primary CF and that Suzuki winds up in RF. Then we don't have to worry about where Verdugo fits best or how bad of a drag JBJ would be on the Sox offense. I'd much rather see JBJ as a true 4th OF who comes in on defense in the late innings to protect leads.

Dalbec is projected for 0.7 fWAR, same as last year, despite the fact that he had a 172 wRC+ in the last 51 games of the season. I suppose there are no projections that deal with young players figuring anything out.

He also cooled off significantly the last 2 weeks of the season, so much so that they basically benched him in the playoffs, so let's not act like he's fixed quite yet.

I think it's completely fair of it to look at his season, which was 4.5 months of awful and 1.5 months of amazing, and not being blown away. .228/.303/.459 feels defensible as a 50th percentile projection (which is what this is). The error bars just range from "is sent to AAA on May 1 and never comes up again" to "has, in fact, figured it out and makes an all-star team".

The eerie thing about Dalbec's offensive season is that we've seen this movie before, in even more extreme fashion, from JBJ. JBJ's legacy is a lot closer to definitive than Dalbec's is. The question is, how much does the organization commit to Dalbec in the next 1-2 years to find out if his path mirrors JBJ's or differs significantly, for better or worse? (Though it's hard to imagine how Dalbec's path could be much worse than JBJ's -- he'd be off the roster long before he got to JBJ's career status, because he doesn't, and never will, have the latter's defensive value.)

It's also hard to compare a mediocre defensive first baseman with someone who was arguably the best defensive center fielder in baseball. It made sense to be patient with Bradley because he was still a net positive when his bat was dead, whereas Dalbec spent the first four months of the season as the worst player in baseball.

Setting aside the fact that this is a quibbly little detail and not the main point of my comment, I agree with this part of the article. I have made constant comments on this forum about wanting to sign Suzuki and my comment here also leaves open the possibility of a FA acquisition.

I disregarded the author's hypothetical about Hernandez being on the LF depth chart in my comment because it was said to emphasize the fact that Duran and Stewart should never be starting the year in LF, not because the author sees it as a legitimate option. There's not a doubt in my mind that Hernandez should be in CF most of the time regardless of whether the Sox sign another corner OF. Playing a CF that good in LF at Fenway would be managerial malpractice.

There are only two reasonable solutions:

1) FA Acquisition(s).
2) Verdugo-Hernandez-JBJ most of the time to start the year, and then see how it goes. Maybe Arroyo sucks and Hernandez needs to play 2B more. Maybe JBJ sucks and JDM needs to play LF more.

Option 1 is clearly better. We'll see.