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Post by jodyreidnichols on Jan 18, 2022 19:06:59 GMT -5
Also, I don't think it'd be crazy for a projection system to look at his IP the last four years (158, 147.1, 0, 42.2) and think he might not make 100 innings. It appears to have done similar with Paxton (160.1, 150, 20.1, 1.1). When doing fantasy league and creating my own projection system I used to weigh the last 3 seasons. Last season would be 3/6, the season before 2/6 and the season before that 1/6. It's a great way to account for missed time regardless of the reason why. Most projection systems are not designed to project breakout systems, it's simply not how they are designed. I used to create a column to account for that but it was limited to. I noticed two simple things to predict breakthrough's, players that had a OBP .70 points higher than their batting average were more likely to have break through seasons and the ones that had the widest delta between doubles and Hr's with the most extra base hits were likely to breakout two. Fairly simply but the system was amazing at picking breakout players. It was far better than any of the FBB magazines where people were paid for their crappy information.
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Post by dirtdog on Jan 18, 2022 21:56:20 GMT -5
Ok. So I am old enough to have seen some of the No. 1 Comps play listed under batter advanced stats and I cant figure out where some of these came from. For example they have Xander comped to Ken McMullen. McMullen was a decent MLB player who played 16 years and racked up 34 WAR, but he was a 3rd baseman and I dont think as talented as Xander. Kyle Scwarber comp Mike Epstein, mostly a defensive replacement or below average starter. JD Martinez comp Jim Rice. Trying figure this out and not getting very far.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jan 21, 2022 7:02:36 GMT -5
Also, I don't think it'd be crazy for a projection system to look at his IP the last four years (158, 147.1, 0, 42.2) and think he might not make 100 innings. It appears to have done similar with Paxton (160.1, 150, 20.1, 1.1). When doing fantasy league and creating my own projection system I used to weigh the last 3 seasons. Last season would be 3/6, the season before 2/6 and the season before that 1/6. It's a great way to account for missed time regardless of the reason why. Most projection systems are not designed to project breakout systems, it's simply not how they are designed. I used to create a column to account for that but it was limited to. I noticed two simple things to predict breakthrough's, players that had a OBP .70 points higher than their batting average were more likely to have break through seasons and the ones that had the widest delta between doubles and Hr's with the most extra base hits were likely to breakout two. Fairly simply but the system was amazing at picking breakout players. It was far better than any of the FBB magazines where people were paid for their crappy information. I have been in a fantasy league with college friends for 30+ years and have done pretty well for the most part. I like your system for valuating and projecting, especially the OBP over BA. It seems to me that posting about fantasy league stuff here doesn't get much attention, actually seems like it is frowned upon. Which amazes me as the idea of being interested in sabermetrics, stats and players all seem to be highly correlated. Wondering if starting a thread on the subject of fantasy leagues and strategy would be something that would create a lot of interest here. My thoughts are that it would be very interesting and active, any thoughts? edit: For example I made some trades last yr based on FIP and it didn't turn out well.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jan 21, 2022 8:14:41 GMT -5
When doing fantasy league and creating my own projection system I used to weigh the last 3 seasons. Last season would be 3/6, the season before 2/6 and the season before that 1/6. It's a great way to account for missed time regardless of the reason why. Most projection systems are not designed to project breakout systems, it's simply not how they are designed. I used to create a column to account for that but it was limited to. I noticed two simple things to predict breakthrough's, players that had a OBP .70 points higher than their batting average were more likely to have break through seasons and the ones that had the widest delta between doubles and Hr's with the most extra base hits were likely to breakout two. Fairly simply but the system was amazing at picking breakout players. It was far better than any of the FBB magazines where people were paid for their crappy information. I have been in a fantasy league with college friends for 30+ years and have done pretty well for the most part. I like your system for valuating and projecting, especially the OBP over BA. It seems to me that posting about fantasy league stuff here doesn't get much attention, actually seems like it is frowned upon. Which amazes me as the idea of being interested in sabermetrics, stats and players all seem to be highly correlated. Wondering if starting a thread on the subject of fantasy leagues and strategy would be something that would create a lot of interest here. My thoughts are that it would be very interesting and active, any thoughts? edit: For example I made some trades last yr based on FIP and it didn't turn out well. I've done much more fantasy football and basketball than baseball because I found a passionate group of people to play with and we have ridiculous (in my view, though not the greater world) keeper formats so I'm "stuck" in a long term relationship with my teams, good or bad. I never found similar for baseball. It's definitely changed how I watch football/basketball and made me think about both college sports more as well. I'd still follow along in a fantasy thread! I'm almost tempted to see if people here would want to start a league, but my mental energy for fantasy sports currently burns hot from August to April so I probably need an offseason (or my wife might insist on me having one).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 21, 2022 13:38:05 GMT -5
You don't need to ask permission to start threads. Just start them!
A fantasy baseball thread probably should be in Off-Topic, I think, but by all means, fire away.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Feb 2, 2022 13:01:24 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2022 13:05:55 GMT -5
Things will obviously change a lot, but as of now they're projected for 83 wins and fourth place in the AL East... which would be good enough to make the playoffs, given the system that's likely to come out of the new CBA.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 2, 2022 14:26:08 GMT -5
Things will obviously change a lot, but as of now they're projected for 83 wins and fourth place in the AL East... which would be good enough to make the playoffs, given the system that's likely to come out of the new CBA. All that'd be required is the addition of one more team. Suddenly the AL East seems a lot less beastly.
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Post by jimed14 on Feb 2, 2022 15:10:10 GMT -5
It's kind of silly to project wins before roster building is finished.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2022 15:28:41 GMT -5
It's kind of silly to project wins before roster building is finished. It would be silly to take the projections as an answer to the question "how will each team do next season?" but it's perfectly fine as an answer to the question "which teams have more work to do this off-season?"
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