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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 24, 2022 16:13:18 GMT -5
New year, new thread!
Some minor updates: - Jan. 15 IFA signings SS Fraymi De Leon and SS Freili Encarnacion debut at 46 and 47, respectively - SS Christian Koss up from 35 to 31 - RHP Durbin Feltman down from 36 to 48.
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 4, 2022 19:52:32 GMT -5
Paez, Ugeuto, Uberstine, J.Encarnacion, Sena, James, Burnet, Salazar
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2022 21:23:21 GMT -5
Paez, Ugeuto, Uberstine, J.Encarnacion, Sena, James, Burnet, Salazar Not a bad crack at it.
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 5, 2022 7:14:10 GMT -5
The equally challenging part is who to downgrade. Rosario is a given. Blalock's injury probably puts him out. Potts seems on a downward track with a drop of 7 more spots being reasonable. Cannon is getting old for being in AA -- if we're bringing in upside, the older guys need to drop unless they look to be just on the cusp. Does that philosophy also cost Scott 9 spots? Gambrell too is fringe. That's six. Do Duran or Wong age out? Does Castellanos drop (become overtaken) by three guys? Does a de la Rosa swap downward a few ticks just enough to substitute for a new DSL arm?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2022 9:07:03 GMT -5
One is that we're taking Song off the board. At this point, he hasn't played baseball since 2019, so I'd argue we don't even have sufficient data to rank or grade him. Even if/when he comes back, who knows how he'll look?
To be clear, we have no information behind this other than the above, so don't read into it.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2022 9:52:54 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 5, 2022 11:55:08 GMT -5
FYI, if you've got questions about some of the bigger-than-usual movers, this was a total from-scratch re-rank. We all made an effort to really start over without the pre-conception of whether we were moving guys up or down, which leads to some inertia with some players just kind of staying in place. This is why you see someone like Zack Kelly debuting so high, and also why you see someone like Gilberto Jimenez lower than we might've otherwise moved him and some previously ranked prospects who have played okay falling out of the top 60.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2022 12:16:48 GMT -5
Let me see if I can make this work:
Rank Player Prev Change 1 Triston Casas 1 0 2 Marcelo Mayer 2 0 3 Nick Yorke 3 0 4 Jarren Duran 4 0 5 Brayan Bello 6 1 6 Jay Groome 8 2 7 Bryan Mata 10 3 8 Miguel Bleis 15 7 9 Brandon Walter 17 8 10 Blaze Jordan 7 -3 11 W. Gonzalez 12 1 12 Josh Winckowski 13 1 13 Jeter Downs 5 -8 14 Connor Seabold 11 -3 15 Chris Murphy 14 -1 16 Kutter Crawford 27 11 17 Tyler McDonough 21 4 18 G Jimenez 9 -9 19 C Rafaela 24 5 20 Thaddeus Ward 20 0 21 Alex Binelas 18 -3 22 Christian Koss 31 9 23 E Paulino 25 2 24 Ryan Fitzgerald 38 14 25 Brainer Bonaci 22 -3 26 David Hamilton 26 0 27 Connor Wong 16 -11 28 R Hernandez 23 -5 29 Matthew Lugo 28 -1 30 Nathan Hickey 29 -1 31 Eduardo Lopez 40 9 32 Enderso Lira 33 1 33 Nick Decker 30 -3 34 Eduard Bazardo 32 -2 35 Frank German 52 17 36 Jacob Wallace 41 5 37 Zack Kelly 24 38 Chih-Jung Liu 39 1 39 Wyatt Olds 58 19 40 J Wu-Yelland 35 -5 41 Juan Chacon 60 19 42 Victor Santos 34 -8 43 Brandon Howlett 50 7 44 Eduardo Vaughan 44 0 45 Durbin Feltman 48 3 46 Niko Kavadas 43 -3 47 Fraymi De Leon 46 -1 48 F Encarnacion 47 -1 49 Cameron Cannon 42 -7 50 Nathanael Cruz 59 9 51 Tyler Uberstine 10 52 Shane Drohan 36 -16 53 Luis Ravelo 8 54 Chase Shugart 7 55 Stephen Scott 51 -4 56 Jacob Webb 5 57 Reidis Sena 4 58 Miguel Ugueto 3 59 Kole Cottam 56 -3 60 Jedixson Paez 1
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Post by jaffinator on Apr 5, 2022 13:39:40 GMT -5
Let me see if I can make this work: Rank Player Prev Change 1 Triston Casas 1 0 2 Marcelo Mayer 2 0 3 Nick Yorke 3 0 4 Jarren Duran 4 0 5 Brayan Bello 6 1 6 Jay Groome 8 2 7 Bryan Mata 10 3 8 Miguel Bleis 15 7 9 Brandon Walter 17 8 10 Blaze Jordan 7 -3 11 W. Gonzalez 12 1 12 Josh Winckowski 13 1 13 Jeter Downs 5 -8 14 Connor Seabold 11 -3 15 Chris Murphy 14 -1 16 Kutter Crawford 27 11 17 Tyler McDonough 21 4 18 G Jimenez 9 -9 19 C Rafaela 24 5 20 Thaddeus Ward 20 0 21 Alex Binelas 18 -3 22 Christian Koss 31 9 23 E Paulino 25 2 24 Ryan Fitzgerald 38 14 25 Brainer Bonaci 22 -3 26 David Hamilton 26 0 27 Connor Wong 16 -11 28 R Hernandez 23 -5 29 Matthew Lugo 28 -1 30 Nathan Hickey 29 -1 31 Eduardo Lopez 40 9 32 Enderso Lira 33 1 33 Nick Decker 30 -3 34 Eduard Bazardo 32 -2 35 Frank German 52 17 36 Jacob Wallace 41 5 37 Zack Kelly 24 38 Chih-Jung Liu 39 1 39 Wyatt Olds 58 19 40 J Wu-Yelland 35 -5 41 Juan Chacon 60 19 42 Victor Santos 34 -8 43 Brandon Howlett 50 7 44 Eduardo Vaughan 44 0 45 Durbin Feltman 48 3 46 Niko Kavadas 43 -3 47 Fraymi De Leon 46 -1 48 F Encarnacion 47 -1 49 Cameron Cannon 42 -7 50 Nathanael Cruz 59 9 51 Tyler Uberstine 10 52 Shane Drohan 36 -16 53 Luis Ravelo 8 54 Chase Shugart 7 55 Stephen Scott 51 -4 56 Jacob Webb 5 57 Reidis Sena 4 58 Miguel Ugueto 3 59 Kole Cottam 56 -3 60 Jedixson Paez 1 I understand that this is an intended outcome of the re-ranking philosophy you referenced, but dang seems a bit harsh to have Blaze Jordan drop. Especially to be overtaken by a 25 year old who hasn't yet thrown a single AA inning in Brandon Walter.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Apr 5, 2022 13:45:16 GMT -5
Appreciate the work on compiling that list, is it too much to continue to satisfy the itch and list who fell out?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 5, 2022 14:14:07 GMT -5
Appreciate the work on compiling that list, is it too much to continue to satisfy the itch and list who fell out? Song removed from consideration, Rosario claimed, Perales (not in US MLST), LDLR, Blalock (TJS), Castellanos, Potts, Gambrell (still out with same ankle injury that ended his 2021)
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Apr 6, 2022 13:01:32 GMT -5
Let me see if I can make this work: Rank Player Prev Change 1 Triston Casas 1 0 2 Marcelo Mayer 2 0 3 Nick Yorke 3 0 4 Jarren Duran 4 0 5 Brayan Bello 6 1 6 Jay Groome 8 2 7 Bryan Mata 10 3 8 Miguel Bleis 15 7 9 Brandon Walter 17 8 10 Blaze Jordan 7 -3 11 W. Gonzalez 12 1 12 Josh Winckowski 13 1 13 Jeter Downs 5 -8 14 Connor Seabold 11 -3 15 Chris Murphy 14 -1 16 Kutter Crawford 27 11 17 Tyler McDonough 21 4 18 G Jimenez 9 -9 19 C Rafaela 24 5 20 Thaddeus Ward 20 0 21 Alex Binelas 18 -3 22 Christian Koss 31 9 23 E Paulino 25 2 24 Ryan Fitzgerald 38 14 25 Brainer Bonaci 22 -3 26 David Hamilton 26 0 27 Connor Wong 16 -11 28 R Hernandez 23 -5 29 Matthew Lugo 28 -1 30 Nathan Hickey 29 -1 31 Eduardo Lopez 40 9 32 Enderso Lira 33 1 33 Nick Decker 30 -3 34 Eduard Bazardo 32 -2 35 Frank German 52 17 36 Jacob Wallace 41 5 37 Zack Kelly 24 38 Chih-Jung Liu 39 1 39 Wyatt Olds 58 19 40 J Wu-Yelland 35 -5 41 Juan Chacon 60 19 42 Victor Santos 34 -8 43 Brandon Howlett 50 7 44 Eduardo Vaughan 44 0 45 Durbin Feltman 48 3 46 Niko Kavadas 43 -3 47 Fraymi De Leon 46 -1 48 F Encarnacion 47 -1 49 Cameron Cannon 42 -7 50 Nathanael Cruz 59 9 51 Tyler Uberstine 10 52 Shane Drohan 36 -16 53 Luis Ravelo 8 54 Chase Shugart 7 55 Stephen Scott 51 -4 56 Jacob Webb 5 57 Reidis Sena 4 58 Miguel Ugueto 3 59 Kole Cottam 56 -3 60 Jedixson Paez 1 I'd say you made it work pretty well, and more quickly and thoroughly than I'd have managed! One very important piece of trivia you failed to mention was that, unless I've missed something in the first few years, this list contains the first prospects ever ranked here with last names beginning with "U"! I'm glad this oversight has finally been rectified. :-)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 6, 2022 14:35:40 GMT -5
I mean it's legit copied and pasted from your spreadsheet, with tweaks to remove certain columns, so pat yourself on the back, my friend!
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Post by borisman on Apr 11, 2022 9:55:59 GMT -5
Bless the soxprospects staff for moving Downs out of the top 10. Well deserved.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 2, 2022 8:29:04 GMT -5
Issat time.
Actual Player Last Change 1 Triston Casas 1 0 2 Marcelo Mayer 2 0 3 Nick Yorke 3 0 4 Brayan Bello 5 1 5 Jarren Duran 4 -1 6 Brandon Walter 9 3 7 Bryan Mata 7 0 8 Miguel Bleis 8 0 9 W. Gonzalez 11 2 10 Jay Groome 6 -4 11 Chris Murphy 15 4 12 Josh Winckowski 12 0 13 Connor Seabold 14 1 14 Blaze Jordan 10 -4 15 C. Rafaela 19 4 16 Jeter Downs 13 -3 17 Kutter Crawford 16 -1 18 Alex Binelas 21 3 19 G. Jimenez 18 -1 20 Tyler McDonough 17 -3 21 Thaddeus Ward 20 -1 22 Christian Koss 22 0 23 Ryan Fitzgerald 24 1 24 Matthew Lugo 29 5 25 David Hamilton 26 1 26 E Paulino 23 -3 27 Brainer Bonaci 25 -2 28 Connor Wong 27 -1 29 R Hernandez 28 -1 30 Frank German 35 5 31 Nathan Hickey 30 -1 32 Enderso Lira 32 0 33 Chih-Jung Liu 38 5 34 Jacob Wallace 36 2 35 Eduardo Lopez 31 -4 36 Nick Decker 33 -3 37 Eduard Bazardo 34 -3 38 Victor Santos 42 4 39 Zack Kelly 37 -2 40 Juan Chacon 41 1 42 Wyatt Olds 39 -3 41 Durbin Feltman 45 4 43 Fraymi De Leon 47 4 44 F Encarnacion 48 4 45 Tyler Uberstine 51 6 46 Nathanael Cruz 50 4 47 Eduardo Vaughan 44 -3 48 Niko Kavadas 46 -2 49 Shane Drohan 52 3 50 Luis Ravelo 53 3 51 Chase Shugart 54 3 52 Kole Cottam 59 7 53 Cameron Cannon 49 -4 55 Miguel Ugueto 58 3 54 AJ Politi NR 7 56 Jacob Webb 56 0 58 Luis Perales NR 3 57 Stephen Scott 55 -2 59 Jedixson Paez 60 1 60 Brandon Howlett 43 -17 Dropped: Reidis Sena (he's at 61, fwiw), Jeremy Wu-Yelland
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Post by jaffinator on May 2, 2022 9:48:43 GMT -5
Issat time. Actual Player Last Change 1 Triston Casas 1 0 2 Marcelo Mayer 2 0 3 Nick Yorke 3 0 4 Brayan Bello 5 1 5 Jarren Duran 4 -1 6 Brandon Walter 9 3 7 Bryan Mata 7 0 8 Miguel Bleis 8 0 9 W. Gonzalez 11 2 10 Jay Groome 6 -4 11 Chris Murphy 15 4 12 Josh Winckowski 12 0 13 Connor Seabold 14 1 14 Blaze Jordan 10 -4 15 C. Rafaela 19 4 16 Jeter Downs 13 -3 17 Kutter Crawford 16 -1 18 Alex Binelas 21 3 19 G. Jimenez 18 -1 20 Tyler McDonough 17 -3 21 Thaddeus Ward 20 -1 22 Christian Koss 22 0 23 Ryan Fitzgerald 24 1 24 Matthew Lugo 29 5 25 David Hamilton 26 1 26 E Paulino 23 -3 27 Brainer Bonaci 25 -2 28 Connor Wong 27 -1 29 R Hernandez 28 -1 30 Frank German 35 5 31 Nathan Hickey 30 -1 32 Enderso Lira 32 0 33 Chih-Jung Liu 38 5 34 Jacob Wallace 36 2 35 Eduardo Lopez 31 -4 36 Nick Decker 33 -3 37 Eduard Bazardo 34 -3 38 Victor Santos 42 4 39 Zack Kelly 37 -2 40 Juan Chacon 41 1 42 Wyatt Olds 39 -3 41 Durbin Feltman 45 4 43 Fraymi De Leon 47 4 44 F Encarnacion 48 4 45 Tyler Uberstine 51 6 46 Nathanael Cruz 50 4 47 Eduardo Vaughan 44 -3 48 Niko Kavadas 46 -2 49 Shane Drohan 52 3 50 Luis Ravelo 53 3 51 Chase Shugart 54 3 52 Kole Cottam 59 7 53 Cameron Cannon 49 -4 55 Miguel Ugueto 58 3 54 AJ Politi NR 7 56 Jacob Webb 56 0 58 Luis Perales NR 3 57 Stephen Scott 55 -2 59 Jedixson Paez 60 1 60 Brandon Howlett 43 -17 Dropped: Reidis Sena (he's at 61, fwiw), Jeremy Wu-Yelland It feels like Brandon Howlett has had the most movement up and down the top 60 in a little while. He also kinda looks like Rick Fox in his basebalref photo: www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=howlet000bra
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Post by James Dunne on May 2, 2022 9:56:24 GMT -5
Yeah, it's been hard to pinpoint Howlett. He's talented and it was always a case of trying to figure out if him playing well was a breakout and figuring something out or just a hot streak. It'd been especially tough with the lost 2020 season to figure that out with the way his play has fluctuated, it's especially pronounced. But the whiffs are just too much and the defense at third really hasn't gotten there. Dropping him likely means that he's going to hit .380 with 12 homers in May.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 2, 2022 9:59:16 GMT -5
Didn't help that he looked great while we were in camp (hit like 5 balls incredibly hard the two games I watched him that went for 2 HR and 3 2B, I think).
I'm usually very wait-and-see with guys in April but a 51% K rate can't be ignored.
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Post by jbsox on May 2, 2022 10:59:00 GMT -5
I’m interested to see what Mata looks like after being away for over a year. Very promising he still ranks 7th.
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Post by carmenfanzone on May 3, 2022 13:00:33 GMT -5
Looking at the scouting reports on this site and the first month stats, it is a little hard for me to justify Jordan and 14 and Bonaci at 27. The are roughly the same age, playing on the same team and Bonaci is, so far, outperforming Jordan by a great deal at the plate. It isn't as if Jordan is thought to be a great fielder playing at a premium defensive position either. Must be because Jordan hit so well last year. Would expect the ratings to change significantly at the end of this month if they both continue to hit as they did during Aprlil.
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Post by Addam603 on May 3, 2022 13:26:30 GMT -5
Looking at the scouting reports on this site and the first month stats, it is a little hard for me to justify Jordan and 14 and Bonaci at 27. The are roughly the same age, playing on the same team and Bonaci is, so far, outperforming Jordan by a great deal at the plate. It isn't as if Jordan is thought to be a great fielder playing at a premium defensive position either. Must be because Jordan hit so well last year. Would expect the ratings to change significantly at the end of this month if they both continue to hit as they did during Aprlil. Numbers after a month of low-A baseball are not going to mean much (if anything) in regards to rankings. Bonaci might have a higher floor due to on-base skills, better speed, and defensive versatility, but Jordan's ceiling is in another stratosphere. Bonaci hits for no power either, which limits his ceiling of effectiveness as a major leaguer. I'd also hesitate to look too heavily into Jordan's numbers so far. Even with his struggles, he's been a bit unlucky. His strikeout rate is a pretty manageable 23%. Nothing to cheer about, but definitely not bad for a guy that had hit tool questions coming in. His BABIP is only .226 too. He's legitimately struggling to start the year, but it's not as bad as it looks (statistically at least).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 3, 2022 16:40:49 GMT -5
Yup. Consider that Bonaci has played 13 games this year. Jordan 19. Bonaci's sample size is so small his OPS fell 140 points in two games when he went 0-for-7 with a walk over the weekend.
I'm not moving a guy double-digits based on that kind of sample size unless a guy is clearly overmatched at an appropriate level or has his stuff back way up or tick way up on the pitcher side.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,984
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Post by jimoh on May 3, 2022 17:01:50 GMT -5
Yup. Consider that Bonaci has played 13 games this year. Jordan 19. Bonaci's sample size is so small his OPS fell 140 points in two games when he went 0-for-7 with a walk over the weekend. I'm not moving a guy double-digits based on that kind of sample size unless a guy is clearly overmatched at an appropriate level or has his stuff back way up or tick way up on the pitcher side. fair enough, but worth noting that carmenfanzone said "Would expect the ratings to change significantly at the end of this month if they both continue to hit as they did during Aprlil." End of May would be 6-7 weeks of hitting. Still not enough to move a lot, but he wasn't talking about that small a sample size.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jun 1, 2022 15:58:18 GMT -5
bump
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,345
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Post by radiohix on Jun 1, 2022 16:18:23 GMT -5
Wickowski is too high for me, stuff is kind of meh across the board. I know he’s struggling now, but Crawford for me looks like a better pitcher. He seems like a kid with a great makeup though, so who knows? Maybe he’ll keep improving.
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