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What if the Red Sox went all-in? (tfka Dombrowskied)
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Post by taiwansox on Feb 2, 2022 18:11:47 GMT -5
I think the point of the thread is: what if the Sox went all in - no holds barred? Which I think overinflates what Dombrowski did. I don't want to enter the Great Dombrowski Debate yet again, but I do agree with this: 1) What would Dombrowski do if he were the current GM of the Red Sox, and 2) What would the Red Sox do if they went full go-for-it-now mode? are two different questions. That’s a constructive way to frame it. I think to add an additional framework, Dombrowski would identify areas of need and overpay to fill them. We obviously have a hole in the bullpen and corner outfield (you could argue starting rotation, but we look locked in there). With that outlined, I think he would try and trade for someone like a Hader (he’s on a contender though) and could totally see him selling high on someone like Bello. He would also potentially flip someone like Houck for a Montas type pitcher. For the corner outfield spot, he would just dump money on Bryant, Castellanos, or Suzuki, whichever he identifies as a priority. He is with the Phillies now, so we can see it from the other side!
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Post by taiwansox on Feb 2, 2022 18:16:37 GMT -5
I never liked the Kimbrel deal but always liked the Sale deal. And we all remember who was on the mound to close out the 2018 World Series. I was cool with both deals. I was never enamored with anybody the Sox gave up in the Kimbrel deal. However I pissed and moaned a lot about losing Espinoza for injury prone Pomeranz, even calling it their worst trade since Bagwell. Whoops. Closer trades absolutely kill me, like if I were a GM, I would get a tattoo or get branded, saying “never trade for closers ever” The Slocumb deal for Varitek and Lowe is obviously well-known, but more recently Bailey, Hanrahan, and even Kimbrel. So much value destruction there and of course the Cubs robbing the White Sox for Kimbrel when they didn’t have a closer need. It’s analogous to short-selling stocks where your upside is capped at 100% but your downside is almost limitless. Same thing with closers where your upside is capped at 3 WAR per season and if you trade multiple prospects, each could have 10+ WAR careers provided that they’re not relievers.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 2, 2022 22:05:01 GMT -5
I think he will do a lot better in Pittsburg where the pressure to win every year won't be there and he can just build build build build the farm system. Some people are cut out for the major markets and others are cut out for the small markets. Gotta give him credit for the farm system he had when he left or young players ready to step in and play but I wasn't a Cherington fan. I agree that he’ll probably do better in Pittsburgh, but look at his 2012-2015 drafts. They were soooo bad, basically only Benintendi and Kopech. (Even traded Chavis back to him for a cherry on top). We didn’t get any good bench players out of those drafts either. Dombrowski miraculously turned Deven Marrero into Josh Taylor. Our second round picks were also terrible. I won’t even bring up the he who shall not be named 7th overall pick of the 2013 draft. Cherington would have fit better with the Mets or some other incompetent organization honestly 😂 To be fair, and with 20/20 hindsight, almost everything past that 7th pick in 2013 was a real dog's dinner. Granted, Ball was seen by many as a reach at the time but who else could he have taken? Here's the list of guys picked after Ball with 1.5+ career bWAR and pick #:
Austin Meadows (6.0, 9) Hunter Renfroe (8.0, 13) J.P. Crawford (7.9, 16) Tim Anderson (17.0, 17) Marco Gonzales (9.9, 19) Christian Arroyo (1.5, 25) Ryan Stanek (1.8, 29)
Aaron Judge (26.4, 32) Sean Manaea (12.2, 34) Michael Lorenzen (6.1, 38)
Cory Knebel (5.0, 39)
I mean, obviously he should've picked Judge 25 spots higher than he actually went.
Or Crawford or Anderson 9 or 10 spots higher than they went (maybe to replace Pedroia?). Also, Manaea got a $3.55m bonus, which was the 5th highest in the whole draft and well above Ball's bonus, so kudos to KC for going for it. Still, every pick not listed there has done virtually nothing. Also, picks 1, 4, 5, and 6 (Mark Appel, Kohl Stewart, Clint Frazier, and Colin Moran) have a grand total of 0.5 bWAR combined, so Cherington isn't the only guy with buyer's remorse from the top of that draft. (I remember being really bummed that Moran got picked at #6.) It's really not that unusual a result from any first round.
So the fact that the Sox managed to win it all in '18 and make the ALCS in '21 despite that empty pick isn't really that big of an upset.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 2, 2022 23:24:31 GMT -5
Never mind the hindsight; lots of people wanted him to take Meadows at the time. Which, as you show, would have been a much better pick.
Admittedly, looking back at the Trey Ball thread, a lot of people wanted to take Braden Shipley too.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 2, 2022 23:36:20 GMT -5
I was cool with both deals. I was never enamored with anybody the Sox gave up in the Kimbrel deal. However I pissed and moaned a lot about losing Espinoza for injury prone Pomeranz, even calling it their worst trade since Bagwell. Whoops. Closer trades absolutely kill me, like if I were a GM, I would get a tattoo or get branded, saying “never trade for closers ever” The Slocumb deal for Varitek and Lowe is obviously well-known, but more recently Bailey, Hanrahan, and even Kimbrel. So much value destruction there and of course the Cubs robbing the White Sox for Kimbrel when they didn’t have a closer need. It’s analogous to short-selling stocks where your upside is capped at 100% but your downside is almost limitless. Same thing with closers where your upside is capped at 3 WAR per season and if you trade multiple prospects, each could have 10+ WAR careers provided that they’re not relievers. Perhaps, but there can be an exception to the rule. I'm sure the Mariners wish that the Yankees had pulled the trigger on a potential Felix Fermin for some young pitcher not good enough to start named Mariano Rivera. I'd say the M's would have done alright in a trade for that closer. Gary Sheffield is more valuable than the guy he was traded for but given his nomadic existence, I'd say the Padres got plenty of value out of Trevor Hoffman in that deal. I still think the Sox did fine with the Kimbrel deal, but it's not the first time the Sox traded for a closer. The Red Sox acquired Lee Smith from the Cubs for Calvin Schiraldi and Al Nipper which was a steal and a difference maker in that close 1988 division race. Then the Sox 2 years later dealt Smith to St. Louis where he pitched well for Tom Brunansky, great final week of 1990 season aside, was pretty ordinary. And of course trading closer Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater didn't work out well for the Sox. If you want contemporary the Brewers have gotten good use out of Josh Hader in the deal they got Domingo Santana and Adrian Houser with Hader fir Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez. Yes, it's generally not a great idea to trade for a closer, but I wouldnt say that it's never a good idea.
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Post by taiwansox on Feb 2, 2022 23:59:57 GMT -5
I agree that he’ll probably do better in Pittsburgh, but look at his 2012-2015 drafts. They were soooo bad, basically only Benintendi and Kopech. (Even traded Chavis back to him for a cherry on top). We didn’t get any good bench players out of those drafts either. Dombrowski miraculously turned Deven Marrero into Josh Taylor. Our second round picks were also terrible. I won’t even bring up the he who shall not be named 7th overall pick of the 2013 draft. Cherington would have fit better with the Mets or some other incompetent organization honestly 😂 To be fair, and with 20/20 hindsight, almost everything past that 7th pick in 2013 was a real dog's dinner. Granted, Ball was seen by many as a reach at the time but who else could he have taken? Here's the list of guys picked after Ball with 1.5+ career bWAR and pick #:
Austin Meadows (6.0, 9) Hunter Renfroe (8.0, 13) J.P. Crawford (7.9, 16) Tim Anderson (17.0, 17) Marco Gonzales (9.9, 19) Christian Arroyo (1.5, 25) Ryan Stanek (1.8, 29)
Aaron Judge (26.4, 32) Sean Manaea (12.2, 34) Michael Lorenzen (6.1, 38)
Cory Knebel (5.0, 39)
I mean, obviously he should've picked Judge 25 spots higher than he actually went.
Or Crawford or Anderson 9 or 10 spots higher than they went (maybe to replace Pedroia?). Also, Manaea got a $3.55m bonus, which was the 5th highest in the whole draft and well above Ball's bonus, so kudos to KC for going for it. Still, every pick not listed there has done virtually nothing. Also, picks 1, 4, 5, and 6 (Mark Appel, Kohl Stewart, Clint Frazier, and Colin Moran) have a grand total of 0.5 bWAR combined, so Cherington isn't the only guy with buyer's remorse from the top of that draft. (I remember being really bummed that Moran got picked at #6.) It's really not that unusual a result from any first round.
So the fact that the Sox managed to win it all in '18 and make the ALCS in '21 despite that empty pick isn't really that big of an upset.
Agreed the 2013 draft was brutal at the top. The consensus really was pick Frazier if available, then pick Meadows if he were off the board. And yeah Frazier’s career hasn’t ended up great, but it’s really about optionality. All these players listed were decent trade chips at some point. A pitcher failing to pick up velocity is pretty brutal. Even Kohl Stewart had some decent seasons where he had salvage value. It’s not really the first round picks that bother us, it’s the failures in rounds 2-5 as well. We’ve had a vacuum from his drafts that has really hurt. He did sign Devers in 2013, but overall the farm building in his era is painful. We have more players drafted/signed by Theo than by Ben at this point (Barnes, Xander, Vazquez (excluding Bradley)) vs. Darwinzon/Devers.
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Post by taiwansox on Feb 3, 2022 0:11:06 GMT -5
Closer trades absolutely kill me, like if I were a GM, I would get a tattoo or get branded, saying “never trade for closers ever” The Slocumb deal for Varitek and Lowe is obviously well-known, but more recently Bailey, Hanrahan, and even Kimbrel. So much value destruction there and of course the Cubs robbing the White Sox for Kimbrel when they didn’t have a closer need. It’s analogous to short-selling stocks where your upside is capped at 100% but your downside is almost limitless. Same thing with closers where your upside is capped at 3 WAR per season and if you trade multiple prospects, each could have 10+ WAR careers provided that they’re not relievers. Perhaps, but there can be an exception to the rule. I'm sure the Mariners wish that the Yankees had pulled the trigger on a potential Felix Fermin for some young pitcher not good enough to start named Mariano Rivera. I'd say the M's would have done alright in a trade for that closer. Gary Sheffield is more valuable than the guy he was traded for but given his nomadic existence, I'd say the Padres got plenty of value out of Trevor Hoffman in that deal. I still think the Sox did fine with the Kimbrel deal, but it's not the first time the Sox traded for a closer. The Red Sox acquired Lee Smith from the Cubs for Calvin Schiraldi and Al Nipper which was a steal and a difference maker in that close 1988 division race. Then the Sox 2 years later dealt Smith to St. Louis where he pitched well for Tom Brunansky, great final week of 1990 season aside, was pretty ordinary. And of course trading closer Sparky Lyle for Danny Cater didn't work out well for the Sox. If you want contemporary the Brewers have gotten good use out of Josh Hader in the deal they got Domingo Santana and Adrian Houser with Hader fir Mike Fiers and Carlos Gomez. Yes, it's generally not a great idea to trade for a closer, but I wouldnt say that it's never a good idea. A few of those examples (Hoffman/Rivera) were not established closers at the time. Hader wasn’t a big league pitcher when MIL acquired him and was a SP up until his MLB debut. A trade like we made for Carson Smith doesn’t bother me, but Thornburg is another example. Once a pitcher gets the “established closer” label, it’s as if they get an unnecessary premium. We got Koji at a discount in large part because he had one save combined the previous 2 years, but his numbers were still fantastic even being injury-prone. The only closer trade I can think of in the last 15 years that was a clear win was Chapman for the MFY and we wouldn’t want to benefit from the Osuna/Chapman arbitrage the MFY and HOU exploited. I don’t like blanket rules, but just like my short-sale public equity example, it’s just that the scales are weighed against you from a fundamental standpoint.
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