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Post by grandsalami on Mar 19, 2022 15:56:56 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 19, 2022 16:01:13 GMT -5
Someone take PGs phone/CPU away. |
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Post by jimed14 on Mar 19, 2022 17:45:24 GMT -5
That's kind of rude to try to ruin his ability to sign a contract. I guess that means no SS also. I heard this at least a year ago as well but he never got surgery. |
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Post by threeifbaerga on Mar 19, 2022 19:30:40 GMT -5
That's kind of rude to try to ruin his ability to sign a contract. I guess that means no SS also. I heard this at least a year ago as well but he never got surgery. Not sure what you mean - the exec is either lying or Story has arm issues. You then mention hearing the same issue exists. Gammo doesn't work for ownership but he also doesn't work for Story. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Mar 19, 2022 20:07:03 GMT -5
That's kind of rude to try to ruin his ability to sign a contract. I guess that means no SS also. I heard this at least a year ago as well but he never got surgery. Not sure what you mean - the exec is either lying or Story has arm issues. You then mention hearing the same issue exists. Gammo doesn't work for ownership but he also doesn't work for Story. It is very, very good to know about a potential arm injury before the Red Sox spend $150,000,000! |
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Mar 19, 2022 20:31:51 GMT -5
You can google "Trevor Story arm injury" and read about how he's had slight inflammation in the elbow in the past, and a little more in 2021 that caused him to change and throw more overhand from SS, with an MRI showing no structural damage. You can find charts that shown he was throwing 90+mph in the past and in the 80s in 2021. That such problems might prevent him from playing 2b well might be some former Colorado exec's opinion, if Gammons has gotten that right (how reliable is Gammons these days?), but if that exec believes that and it's not true he's not "lying". It might also be the thing that keeps people who want a SS or 3b from signing him, and delivers him to the Red Sox for a three-year deal in which he will play 2b at least the first year.
But it's not like he had to stop playing SS when he was in high school and has a pin in his shoulder.
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Post by Jimmy on Mar 20, 2022 1:01:09 GMT -5
Since the mega thread (rightfully) got shitcanned, I figured I’d make this thread.
Biggest FA left on the board (I think?) and Sox have been linked to him. Maybe a fit at SS considering Xanders defensive issues and the hole at 2B (moving Xander over). Maybe a fit at 2B if Xander doesn’t want to give up the prestige of being the Red Sox SS. Maybe a fit at 2B then SS if/when Xander leaves?
Other concerns: Road splits (his career numbers are ballooned by waaay favorable Coors numbers), and I guess there’s some concern over his elbow.
What do you guys think? This is a non answer but to me I think it depends if the price is right. I think I would go 5/$100M with a player opt out after Year 3.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Mar 20, 2022 2:39:13 GMT -5
Simply put, yes- I like it when the Red Sox have good baseball players
You could get him 20 games at SS this year and he takes over next year at the position full time. I just don’t think they’re going to pay Bogaerts like an elite SS.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Mar 20, 2022 3:25:26 GMT -5
One thing I've resisted doing this off-season is my own assessments of players, at least for candidates. So I'll be thrilled if they decide to sign Story. My guess is that their interest is real.
I think it was always the case that they wanted to upgrade either RF or 2B with the extra RHB they've talked about, and hence either put JBJ into a 2B platoon with Arroyo (via Kiké swapping positions) or Arroyo into the backup skill INF role, where he'd be one of the best in the game. And Story is the only guy left standing.
If that doesn't happen, they could sign Jed Lowrie (probably as an NRI to begin with) and use him at 2B against a fair share of RHP. I did look at his numbers before the lockout and he can still hit RHP and play an OK 2B.
But Story gives you this lineup:
Kiké Bogaerts or Devers JDM Devers or Bogaerts Story Verdugo Dalbec Vazquez JBJ or platoon TBD
That's a really good lineup. Do that, and you've improved the team from last year (once you factor in getting much more from Sale, Pivetta, Houck, and Whitlock); if you don't, they're sort of treading water.
Some other thoughts:
On paper, signing Schwarber and dealing JDM was a no-brainer (look at the better R/L balance if you can go Kiké, Schwarber, Bogaerts, Devers). They chose not to do it, and that is a big vote of confidence in Casas as an elite LH bat sooner that later, and a huge vote for Dalbec as a viable DH next year.
I'm unsure whether choosing to upgrade 2B over RF is a vote of confidence for Duran. They're trying Dalbec in LF, but I don't see that as being primarily a backup plan for next year in case Duran can't get his act together; since they're also teaching him some 2B, I think they're just looking for ways to get him into the lineup this year once Casas arrives. That's another sign that they are very high on him. Put Dalbec in LF and you've upgraded JBJ's spot in the lineup to Casas. And if he's the regular DH next year because Duran is starting in the OF, he can swap with almost anyone who needs a half-day off.
They still need a RH hitting corner OFer who can platoon with JBJ (ideally by playing RF so Verdugo isn't ping-ponging). Remaining free agents are all coming off back-to-back below 0 WAR years: Almora, Eaton, Fowler, Pham, and old friend Santana. If they thought any of these guys were due for a comeback, wouldn't they have already signed him?
So I'm guessing either a trade for a young guy they like, or an interesting waiver claim at the end of ST. That this bench spot is also an NRI-level job (along with Shaw) means that a) they have a choice of whom to dump when Casas arrives, and more importantly b) they can add someone significant later.
It seems to me that Dawinzon is going back to AAA until he gets his act together. I expect Robles to make the team and in the long run they may end up moving Davis.
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 20, 2022 4:35:12 GMT -5
At this point no, I'd rather they sign conforto since I doubt they'd sign both. I think OF is a bigger need and I don't want to see JBJ in the opening day lineup.
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Post by cheers on Mar 20, 2022 6:06:10 GMT -5
I'm OK with Story at 2B, if he's paid like the player he is. Away from the friendly confines of Coors Field, he's a .241/310/.442 hitter, albeit one with good wheels.
If the contract looks like 3/30, I'm in. Otherwise, pass.
Also, I'm with ematz - let's chase a corner OF first...
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Post by soxaddict on Mar 20, 2022 7:20:27 GMT -5
Absolutely.
Story is an elite player. I’m not worried about his splits away from Coord field, he’d be fine at Fenway. Plus, He’s still an elite defender. Since 2018, he ranks 11th in WAR in all of MLB, 4th among SS. I’m fine overpaying him to play 2B to keep Xander happy if it helps getting him here. He can take over at SS in 2023 when Xander opts out. He’s athletic enough, that he could move to 3B or the OF in a few years if need be. He’s franchise player, IMO. I love Xander, but the reality is his days at SS are numbered.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 20, 2022 7:24:29 GMT -5
I'm on the fence. It all depends.
If it's a big long term contract then no.
If it's a similar deal to Correia, but fir about 20 - 25 million I'd say yes. I'm not worried about him opting out and going elsewhere.
He's a good fit until Mayer is ready...if he's healthy.
If it takes something like 6 years 150 million to sign him I'd say pass.
I really wouldn't want to commit more than 3 years for him although I'd consider 4.
If healthy he'd be an upgrade to what they had. But I wouldn't overextend to sign him. There are some free agents you overextend for so you can land him. Story is not one of those guys.
I get that his road numbers suffer because of the hitting boost he gets in Colorado, but when you net it out, I suspect the boost is bigger than the road disadvantages.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 20, 2022 7:36:36 GMT -5
At this point no, I'd rather they sign conforto since I doubt they'd sign both. I think OF is a bigger need and I don't want to see JBJ in the opening day lineup. I agree but other than Pham I don't know who's out there. I'm not big on Comforto or the draft pick attached to him. I mean at that point they're kind of down to hoping that Duran stops swinging for the fences, stops getting beat by fastballs, can get on base more and use his blazing speed and become either the leadoff hitter or #2 guy. I'm guessing he starts in AAA and the Sox are stuck with JBJ's noodle bat and whoever they pick up to platoon with him - Pham I'd suppose. Then hopefully Duran readjusts in AAA and forces his way up quickly. So that leaves Story as the only guy left who can replace Renfroe's power bat and play a defensive position of need. That said I suspect now that Story winds up in Houston. It's a clean fit as Story would remain at SS and they have the money that they earmarked for Correa. It should be enough to land Story. So at this point I would guess Story goes to Houston. He could always move to 3b down the road when Pena comes up and Bregman's contract is up after 2024. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 20, 2022 7:46:53 GMT -5
At this point no, I'd rather they sign conforto since I doubt they'd sign both. I think OF is a bigger need and I don't want to see JBJ in the opening day lineup. I agree but other than Pham I don't know who's out there. I'm not big on Comforto or the draft pick attached to him. I mean at that point they're kind of down to hoping that Duran stops swinging for the fences, stops getting beat by fastballs, can get on base more and use his blazing speed and become either the leadoff hitter or #2 guy. I'm guessing he starts in AAA and the Sox are stuck with JBJ's noodle bat and whoever they pick up to platoon with him - Pham I'd suppose. Then hopefully Duran readjusts in AAA and forces his way up quickly. So that leaves Story as the only guy left who can replace Renfroe's power bat and play a defensive position of need. That said I suspect now that Story winds up in Houston. It's a clean fit as Story would remain at SS and they have the money that they earmarked for Correa. It should be enough to land Story. So at this point I would guess Story goes to Houston. He could always move to 3b down the road when Pena comes up and Bregman's contract is up after 2024. Conforto was solidly above 2 fWAR from 2017-2020. I'd bet on last year being just an aberration and give him 3-4 year deal for 16 or so AAV which I think is cheaper than what Story is going to get for roughly the same impact. Gotta give up the draft pick for Story too and I just think OF is a much bigger need than IF right now. Of course Arroyo could go out and get hurt tomorrow making my thoughts moot but assuming full health on opening day I'd rather conforto be in LF with JBJ on the bench than Story at 2nd with JBJ in RF. |
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bigmarty58
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2011 Pancreatic Cancer Survivor - One of the lucky ones
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Post by bigmarty58 on Mar 20, 2022 8:10:41 GMT -5
With a comp pick associated, do you think Bloom will pull the plug realizing he is prioritizing re-building our prospect pool. I think if any additional moves are going to happen before the season begins Bloom may include taking on salary (like Myers) with a prospect. Otherwise see you at the deadline.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Mar 20, 2022 8:23:13 GMT -5
I agree but other than Pham I don't know who's out there. I'm not big on Comforto or the draft pick attached to him. I mean at that point they're kind of down to hoping that Duran stops swinging for the fences, stops getting beat by fastballs, can get on base more and use his blazing speed and become either the leadoff hitter or #2 guy. I'm guessing he starts in AAA and the Sox are stuck with JBJ's noodle bat and whoever they pick up to platoon with him - Pham I'd suppose. Then hopefully Duran readjusts in AAA and forces his way up quickly. So that leaves Story as the only guy left who can replace Renfroe's power bat and play a defensive position of need. That said I suspect now that Story winds up in Houston. It's a clean fit as Story would remain at SS and they have the money that they earmarked for Correa. It should be enough to land Story. So at this point I would guess Story goes to Houston. He could always move to 3b down the road when Pena comes up and Bregman's contract is up after 2024. Conforto was solidly above 2 fWAR from 2017-2020. I'd bet on last year being just an aberration and give him 3-4 year deal for 16 or so AAV which I think is cheaper than what Story is going to get for roughly the same impact. Gotta give up the draft pick for Story too and I just think OF is a much bigger need than IF right now. Of course Arroyo could go out and get hurt tomorrow making my thoughts moot but assuming full health on opening day I'd rather conforto be in LF with JBJ on the bench than Story at 2nd with JBJ in RF. Geez, I forgot about the QO for Story. The Rockies FO is so wacky you can't assume they'd offer it. Maybe Conforto was hurt last year and that explains his struggles. If he's the kind of guy that can go opposite field at Fenway perhaps he is an option even though he's LH. I guess it depends upon what you think Duran is going to be. When Hernandez was struggling and Duran was blasting mammoth HRs I couldn't wait to see him replace Hernandez. But man I was wrong. Duran really looked awful and Hernandez was a lot more patient at the plate and played really well in the 2nd half and beyond. So what is Duran? A guy built like a navy seal who's a singles hitter with blinding speed, a guy using his power, or hopefully the best of both worlds? Do you give up the pick and sign a guy with some questions of his own who is more of a sure thing? The draft pick makes it harder. With Story his RH bat fits the bill and they could really use him at 2b given how brittle Arroyo has been and as a hedge at SS against X leaving until Mayer is ready. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Mar 20, 2022 8:34:17 GMT -5
Conforto was solidly above 2 fWAR from 2017-2020. I'd bet on last year being just an aberration and give him 3-4 year deal for 16 or so AAV which I think is cheaper than what Story is going to get for roughly the same impact. Gotta give up the draft pick for Story too and I just think OF is a much bigger need than IF right now. Of course Arroyo could go out and get hurt tomorrow making my thoughts moot but assuming full health on opening day I'd rather conforto be in LF with JBJ on the bench than Story at 2nd with JBJ in RF. Geez, I forgot about the QO for Story. The Rockies FO is so wacky you can't assume they'd offer it. Maybe Conforto was hurt last year and that explains his struggles. If he's the kind of guy that can go opposite field at Fenway perhaps he is an option even though he's LH. I guess it depends upon what you think Duran is going to be. When Hernandez was struggling and Duran was blasting mammoth HRs I couldn't wait to see him replace Hernandez. But man I was wrong. Duran really looked awful and Hernandez was a lot more patient at the plate and played really well in the 2nd half and beyond. So what is Duran? A guy built like a navy seal who's a singles hitter with blinding speed, a guy using his power, or hopefully the best of both worlds? Do you give up the pick and sign a guy with some questions of his own who is more of a sure thing? The draft pick makes it harder. With Story his RH bat fits the bill and they could really use him at 2b given how brittle Arroyo has been and as a hedge at SS against X leaving until Mayer is ready. I wouldn't count conforto as being a total indictment on Duran. I think Duran could still be good but it'd be hedging their bet. Maybe Duran ends up being the answer at CF and then you have Verdugo, conforto and Duran in the OF with Hernandez taking on more of a super utility role that he was originally slated to. I know that's all lefty OF but I don't think it'd make the lineup too imbalanced since you still have Vazquez, Dalbec, Xander, JD and Arroyo as RHH. Once again that's all assuming health which is bad idea I know. Edit: I'll add that I guess my answer is if its Story or noone of consequence then yes give me Story as I do think he's one of the last difference makers left. In my eyes it's basically Story or conforto. Or trade which isn't my preference since I'd rather keep building the farm than trading one or multiple top 10 prospects for someone. |
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Post by voiceofreason on Mar 20, 2022 8:46:47 GMT -5
I'm OK with Story at 2B, if he's paid like the player he is. Away from the friendly confines of Coors Field, he's a .241/310/.442 hitter, albeit one with good wheels. If the contract looks like 3/30, I'm in. Otherwise, pass. Also, I'm with ematz - let's chase a corner OF first... You can sign me up for that 3/30 but how is that going to happen with a guy who has about 20bwar over the last 4 seasons? He will get 30 aav at a minimum. Cory Seager got 10/325 and his bwar is 21.3 over the last 7 years. JS |
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Post by soxaddict on Mar 20, 2022 8:51:31 GMT -5
I agree but other than Pham I don't know who's out there. I'm not big on Comforto or the draft pick attached to him. I mean at that point they're kind of down to hoping that Duran stops swinging for the fences, stops getting beat by fastballs, can get on base more and use his blazing speed and become either the leadoff hitter or #2 guy. I'm guessing he starts in AAA and the Sox are stuck with JBJ's noodle bat and whoever they pick up to platoon with him - Pham I'd suppose. Then hopefully Duran readjusts in AAA and forces his way up quickly. So that leaves Story as the only guy left who can replace Renfroe's power bat and play a defensive position of need. That said I suspect now that Story winds up in Houston. It's a clean fit as Story would remain at SS and they have the money that they earmarked for Correa. It should be enough to land Story. So at this point I would guess Story goes to Houston. He could always move to 3b down the road when Pena comes up and Bregman's contract is up after 2024. Conforto was solidly above 2 fWAR from 2017-2020. I'd bet on last year being just an aberration and give him 3-4 year deal for 16 or so AAV which I think is cheaper than what Story is going to get for roughly the same impact. Gotta give up the draft pick for Story too and I just think OF is a much bigger need than IF right now. Of course Arroyo could go out and get hurt tomorrow making my thoughts moot but assuming full health on opening day I'd rather conforto be in LF with JBJ on the bench than Story at 2nd with JBJ in RF. I don't see any scenario where Conforto signs for less than Schwarber which is 4/$79M. I think Castellanos would be a similar comparison at 5/$100M. IMO, the Sox would be better off to sign Story and try to shift Arroyo to LF, which he said he'd be willing to do if they sign Story. I know everyone is concerned with Story's road splits, but every player struggles on the road. Bogaerts (career): AVG.268 OBP.333 SLG.422 OPS.755 wOBA.325 wRC+104 Story (career): AVG.241 OBP.310 SLG.442 OPS.752 wOBA.321 wRC+98 Again, Story is an elite defender. As far as health goes, since 2018 Story has played in 503 games, more games than any player on the Red Sox roster. |
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Post by cheers on Mar 20, 2022 9:00:08 GMT -5
I'm OK with Story at 2B, if he's paid like the player he is. Away from the friendly confines of Coors Field, he's a .241/310/.442 hitter, albeit one with good wheels. If the contract looks like 3/30, I'm in. Otherwise, pass. Also, I'm with ematz - let's chase a corner OF first... You can sign me up for that 3/30 but how is that going to happen with a guy who has about 20bwar over the last 4 seasons? He will get 30 aav at a minimum. Cory Seager got 10/325 and his bwar is 21.3 over the last 7 years. FS I wasn't implying that this was a likelihood... I was obliquely (and poorly, apparently) pointing out that he was going to be grossly overpaid by someone - and I hope it isn't the Red Sox. Side note: bwar is not much of a stat when comparing anyone in a Rockies uni. |
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Post by Guidas on Mar 20, 2022 9:00:26 GMT -5
One thing I've resisted doing this off-season is my own assessments of players, at least for candidates. So I'll be thrilled if they decide to sign Story. My guess is that their interest is real. I think it was always the case that they wanted to upgrade either RF or 2B with the extra RHB they've talked about, and hence either put JBJ into a 2B platoon with Arroyo (via Kiké swapping positions) or Arroyo into the backup skill INF role, where he'd be one of the best in the game. And Story is the only guy left standing.
If that doesn't happen, they could sign Jed Lowrie (probably as an NRI to begin with) and use him at 2B against a fair share of RHP. I did look at his numbers before the lockout and he can still hit RHP and play an OK 2B. But Story gives you this lineup: Kiké Bogaerts or Devers JDM Devers or Bogaerts Story Verdugo Dalbec Vazquez JBJ or platoon TBD That's a really good lineup. Do that, and you've improved the team from last year (once you factor in getting much more from Sale, Pivetta, Houck, and Whitlock); if you don't, they're sort of treading water. Some other thoughts: On paper, signing Schwarber and dealing JDM was a no-brainer (look at the better R/L balance if you can go Kiké, Schwarber, Bogaerts, Devers). They chose not to do it, and that is a big vote of confidence in Casas as an elite LH bat sooner that later, and a huge vote for Dalbec as a viable DH next year. I'm unsure whether choosing to upgrade 2B over RF is a vote of confidence for Duran. They're trying Dalbec in LF, but I don't see that as being primarily a backup plan for next year in case Duran can't get his act together; since they're also teaching him some 2B, I think they're just looking for ways to get him into the lineup this year once Casas arrives. That's another sign that they are very high on him. Put Dalbec in LF and you've upgraded JBJ's spot in the lineup to Casas. And if he's the regular DH next year because Duran is starting in the OF, he can swap with almost anyone who needs a half-day off. They still need a RH hitting corner OFer who can platoon with JBJ (ideally by playing RF so Verdugo isn't ping-ponging). Remaining free agents are all coming off back-to-back below 0 WAR years: Almora, Eaton, Fowler, Pham, and old friend Santana. If they thought any of these guys were due for a comeback, wouldn't they have already signed him?
So I'm guessing either a trade for a young guy they like, or an interesting waiver claim at the end of ST. That this bench spot is also an NRI-level job (along with Shaw) means that a) they have a choice of whom to dump when Casas arrives, and more importantly b) they can add someone significant later. It seems to me that Dawinzon is going back to AAA until he gets his act together. I expect Robles to make the team and in the long run they may end up moving Davis.
Thanks for this, Eric. Did you run one of these for Comforto? I'm convinced he is what he was before last year, and that the Mets have grossly mismanaged him. He also has a propensity to destroy RH pitching. |
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Post by Guidas on Mar 20, 2022 9:02:08 GMT -5
At this point no, I'd rather they sign conforto since I doubt they'd sign both. I think OF is a bigger need and I don't want to see JBJ in the opening day lineup. Right there with you. |
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Post by notstarboard on Mar 20, 2022 9:02:11 GMT -5
I'm OK with Story at 2B, if he's paid like the player he is. Away from the friendly confines of Coors Field, he's a .241/310/.442 hitter, albeit one with good wheels. If the contract looks like 3/30, I'm in. Otherwise, pass. Also, I'm with ematz - let's chase a corner OF first... You can sign me up for that 3/30 but how is that going to happen with a guy who has about 20bwar over the last 4 seasons? He will get 30 aav at a minimum. Cory Seager got 10/325 and his bwar is 21.3 over the last 7 years. FS I don't think I'd say 30 AAV minimum since there are injury concerns with his arm and he's coming off a down year (albeit still at 4 bWAR). I could see something like 6/150. If he signs for 3/30, though, that means his arm is actually taped onto his torso. |
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Post by kwodes on Mar 20, 2022 9:16:12 GMT -5
Guess it doesn't matter if we want him anymore
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