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Red Sox Sign SS Trevor Story
nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 19, 2023 9:14:10 GMT -5
Trevor Story is now through 133 AB's in his surgery plagued 2023 season. So far: . 181/.218/.299 - 31 wRC+ - 34.6% K rateThe last two years have been manifestly difficult for him between: no spring training basically in 2022 after signing late; missing time for birth of his child; getting food poisoning; getting hit in the wrist by Corey Kluber; the elbow surgery. That said, his entire slash line as a Red Sox player to this point in 128 games: .223/.282/.399 - 82 wRC+ - 31.8% K rateThe defense has been superb, including at SS now that the arm is fixed. I can't imagine he will be a Rich Man's Yu Chang again next year - but can the Sox go into next year planning to hit him in the middle of the order bat alongside Devers/Casas with his recent performance? No but they were also kidding themselves thinking he ever had a chance of being a middle of the order bat here if that was the case. We’ll be lucky if he’s a league average bat next year IMO. At this point I would settle for a 90 wRC+ as sad as that is because we’re seeing right now how much worse it can get for him. He’s not the savior, he’s more likely going to be the contract we can’t wait to get off the books after Sale is gone. Maybe he can go off in one of his remaining years like Duvall did this year, but everything he’s done here points to the contrary.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 19, 2023 9:29:23 GMT -5
Trevor Story is now through 133 AB's in his surgery plagued 2023 season. So far: . 181/.218/.299 - 31 wRC+ - 34.6% K rateThe last two years have been manifestly difficult for him between: no spring training basically in 2022 after signing late; missing time for birth of his child; getting food poisoning; getting hit in the wrist by Corey Kluber; the elbow surgery. That said, his entire slash line as a Red Sox player to this point in 128 games: .223/.282/.399 - 82 wRC+ - 31.8% K rateThe defense has been superb, including at SS now that the arm is fixed. I can't imagine he will be a Rich Man's Yu Chang again next year - but can the Sox go into next year planning to hit him in the middle of the order bat alongside Devers/Casas with his recent performance? No but they were also kidding themselves thinking he ever had a chance of being a middle of the order bat here if that was the case. We’ll be lucky if he’s a league average bat next year IMO. At this point I would settle for a 90 wRC+ as sad as that is because we’re seeing right now how much worse it can get for him. He’s not the savior, he’s more likely going to be the contract we can’t wait to get off the books after Sale is gone. Maybe he can go off in one of his remaining years like Duvall did this year, but everything he’s done here points to the contrary. A Story with a 90 wRC+ is probably a 2ish fWAR player with his defense and base running. SS's this year with at or around a 90 wRC+ and their fWAR Adames 91 with a 2.6 WAR, Volpe 88 with a 2.2, Abrams 90 with a 2.0, Edman 90 with a 1.9. Like you said certainly not a savior but should be a fine SS for the next couple of seasons. I'm also semi bullish on a Story who is able to have a normal offseason/ST next year, I think he puts up around a 100 wRC+ which should get him to or around a 3 fWAR with his defense and base running.
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Post by asm19 on Sept 19, 2023 9:30:56 GMT -5
Trevor Story is now through 133 AB's in his surgery plagued 2023 season. So far: . 181/.218/.299 - 31 wRC+ - 34.6% K rateThe last two years have been manifestly difficult for him between: no spring training basically in 2022 after signing late; missing time for birth of his child; getting food poisoning; getting hit in the wrist by Corey Kluber; the elbow surgery. That said, his entire slash line as a Red Sox player to this point in 128 games: .223/.282/.399 - 82 wRC+ - 31.8% K rateThe defense has been superb, including at SS now that the arm is fixed. I can't imagine he will be a Rich Man's Yu Chang again next year - but can the Sox go into next year planning to hit him in the middle of the order bat alongside Devers/Casas with his recent performance? No but they were also kidding themselves thinking he ever had a chance of being a middle of the order bat here if that was the case. We’ll be lucky if he’s a league average bat next year IMO. At this point I would settle for a 90 wRC+ as sad as that is because we’re seeing right now how much worse it can get for him. He’s not the savior, he’s more likely going to be the contract we can’t wait to get off the books after Sale is gone. Maybe he can go off in one of his remaining years like Duvall did this year, but everything he’s done here points to the contrary. He may be able to be a valuable player with his defense if he can approach league average as a hitter as ematz noted (I'm sure he'll have some Duvall-esque stretches where he goes off as you allude to). That said, Turner and Duvall have been the impact righty bats in the 3 and 5 spots typically this year and with those two as free agents however, if Story is hitting in say the 7 hole that makes things somewhat complicated rebuilding the lineup: Verdugo/Duran/Abreu/Rafaela - take your pick, fellas Devers ______ - OF/DH Casas ______ -OF/DH Yoshida Story Pablo/Urias? Wong/McGuire? If he was Colorado Story again next year, this lineup is a lot easier to fill out. But I agree it's hard to count on that right now.
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Post by manfred on Sept 19, 2023 9:32:11 GMT -5
No but they were also kidding themselves thinking he ever had a chance of being a middle of the order bat here if that was the case. We’ll be lucky if he’s a league average bat next year IMO. At this point I would settle for a 90 wRC+ as sad as that is because we’re seeing right now how much worse it can get for him. He’s not the savior, he’s more likely going to be the contract we can’t wait to get off the books after Sale is gone. Maybe he can go off in one of his remaining years like Duvall did this year, but everything he’s done here points to the contrary. A Story with a 90 wRC+ is probably a 2ish fWAR player with his defense and base running. SS's this year with at or around a 90 wRC+ and their fWAR Adames 91 with a 2.6 WAR, Volpe 88 with a 2.2, Abrams 90 with a 2.0, Edman 90 with a 1.9. Like you said certainly not a savior but should be a fine SS for the next couple of seasons. I'm also semi bullish on a Story who is able to have a normal offseason/ST next year, I think he puts up around a 100 wRC+ which should get him to or around a 3 fWAR with his defense and base running. It is sort of interesting to look at this whole thread. There was a skeptical minority whose concerns seem to have panned out. Now we are in the “well, he’ll be 2-3 WAR” stage of the process.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 19, 2023 9:35:35 GMT -5
No but they were also kidding themselves thinking he ever had a chance of being a middle of the order bat here if that was the case. We’ll be lucky if he’s a league average bat next year IMO. At this point I would settle for a 90 wRC+ as sad as that is because we’re seeing right now how much worse it can get for him. He’s not the savior, he’s more likely going to be the contract we can’t wait to get off the books after Sale is gone. Maybe he can go off in one of his remaining years like Duvall did this year, but everything he’s done here points to the contrary. He may be able to be a valuable player with his defense if he can approach league average as a hitter as ematz noted (I'm sure he'll have some Duvall-esque stretches where he goes off as you allude to). That said, Turner and Duvall have been the impact righty bats in the 3 and 5 spots typically this year and with those two as free agents however, if Story is hitting in say the 7 hole that makes things somewhat complicated rebuilding the lineup: Verdugo/Duran/Abreu/Rafaela - take your pick, fellas Devers ______ - OF/DH Casas ______ -OF/DH Yoshida Story Pablo/Urias? Wong/McGuire? If he was Colorado Story again next year, this lineup is a lot easier to fill out. But I agree it's hard to count on that right now. Yeah I’m not saying I don’t think he’ll be an average starter. He brings a lot of defensive value and is a solid baserunner. I just don’t expect a star and see his offensive floor lower than it’s ever been.
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 19, 2023 9:41:53 GMT -5
Story was on a ~4 WAR/600 pace in 2022 with a 100 wRC+. If he’s a league-average bat going forward then he should be a positive-value contract with his defense and baserunning. If he can find his power stroke again then he’ll be more than that. And if he can get the K rate back down to 25% or so, then he’ll be one of the best players on the team.
It’s been an inauspicious start, but I’m not panicking yet.
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Post by asm19 on Oct 5, 2023 12:26:43 GMT -5
The fact that there's an actual statistical case to be made to give the Gold Glove to Story despite only playing 2 months is kinda insane
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 5, 2023 12:34:26 GMT -5
The fact that there's an actual statistical case to be made to give the Gold Glove to Story despite only playing 2 months is kinda insane Going by that chart, I'd give it to Witt. I wouldnt take it away based on games Story didnt play because you'd have to project he played those games to top Witt's figures, which he would have had he played, but he didnt.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 5, 2023 13:21:05 GMT -5
I know I'm in the minority here but I bet Story kicks "butt" next season. He is an elite talent that has not been close to healthy so far for us. Unless he pulls a "Sale", he will be dynamic next season. Folks are too quick to bury a player.
Just stay healthy Trevor!!
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 5, 2023 14:06:26 GMT -5
I know I'm in the minority here but I bet Story kicks "butt" next season. He is an elite talent that has not been close to healthy so far for us. Unless he pulls a "Sale", he will be dynamic next season. Folks are too quick to bury a player. Just stay healthy Trevor!! I'm most of the way there with you, I think the days of "elite" production from Story are gone but I do think he will be an above average SS for them next year and flirt with a 20/20 or better season. I doubt if his BA, OBP of K% are going to be pretty but with his defense he will provide enough value that many on the board will be happy he's a Sox.
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steveofbradenton
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 5, 2023 14:17:52 GMT -5
I know I'm in the minority here but I bet Story kicks "butt" next season. He is an elite talent that has not been close to healthy so far for us. Unless he pulls a "Sale", he will be dynamic next season. Folks are too quick to bury a player. Just stay healthy Trevor!! I'm most of the way there with you, I think the days of "elite" production from Story are gone but I do think he will be an above average SS for them next year and flirt with a 20/20 or better season. I doubt if his BA, OBP of K% are going to be pretty but with his defense he will provide enough value that many on the board will be happy he's a Sox. Thanks! BA -- .250 OBP -- .325 SLG -- .490 SB -- 25 HR -- 25 K-Rate -- 28% Fielding -- Gold Glove
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Post by chaimtime on Oct 5, 2023 14:34:24 GMT -5
Dansby Swanson just put up a 5 win season with a .244/.328/.416 triple slash, good for a 104 wRC+. If Story continues to play as well defensively as he has then he will be a very valuable player.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 5, 2023 14:40:18 GMT -5
Dansby Swanson just put up a 5 win season with a .244/.328/.416 triple slash, good for a 104 wRC+. If Story continues to play as well defensively as he has then he will be a very valuable player. This is a good point, looking at those defensive metrics posted Story doesn't even have to crack 100 wRC+ to be at least 3 WAR player if the defense continues to approach that level. I think the going rate is 9-10M per WAR on FAs so 3 WAR would offer surplus value for the Sox next season.
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Post by scottysmalls on Oct 5, 2023 14:59:53 GMT -5
I'm most of the way there with you, I think the days of "elite" production from Story are gone but I do think he will be an above average SS for them next year and flirt with a 20/20 or better season. I doubt if his BA, OBP of K% are going to be pretty but with his defense he will provide enough value that many on the board will be happy he's a Sox. Thanks! BA -- .250 OBP -- .325 SLG -- .490 SB -- 25 HR -- 25 K-Rate -- 28% Fielding -- Gold Glove I hope you’re right because the player you described is a top 10 player in MLB
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Post by incandenza on Oct 5, 2023 19:57:12 GMT -5
Having just lived through the season the Red Sox had at SS, if Story were a free agent and available for 4/93 on a take-it-or-leave-it basis, would you do it?
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2023 20:28:52 GMT -5
The fact that there's an actual statistical case to be made to give the Gold Glove to Story despite only playing 2 months is kinda insane There's no statistical case for giving a guy a GG based on the equivalent of 35 games at a position. Also, what does Franco's ugly situation have to do with him NOT having a statistical case to win the award? Nothing says the voters can't give it to him, right? Now maybe some won't want to vote for him, given his alleged behavior. But that has nothing to do with a statiscal case. It should be Witt.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Oct 5, 2023 20:33:28 GMT -5
Having just lived through the season the Red Sox had at SS, if Story were a free agent and available for 4/93 on a take-it-or-leave-it basis, would you do it? Honestly, no, not going into a non-GFIN season and with MM coming up sometime '25. There are also other MI prospects who are candidates to win the 2B starting job by the time the Red Sox are ready to compete at the top of the division again.
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Post by bloomstaxonomy on Oct 5, 2023 20:34:15 GMT -5
Having just lived through the season the Red Sox had at SS, if Story were a free agent and available for 4/93 on a take-it-or-leave-it basis, would you do it? I don’t think so, but I’m not mad we made the initial signing. There was an element of risk, and the last two years haven’t gone as planned. I wonder if the opt-out is salvageable for him if he does pretty well for himself moving forward. If he opts out, I’m good with letting him go, as I would assume most would be.
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Post by tijas2 on Oct 5, 2023 21:46:07 GMT -5
The fact that there's an actual statistical case to be made to give the Gold Glove to Story despite only playing 2 months is kinda insane There's no statistical case for giving a guy a GG based on the equivalent of 35 games at a position. Also, what does Franco's ugly situation have to do with him NOT having a statistical case to win the award? Nothing says the voters can't give it to him, right? Now maybe some won't want to vote for him, given his alleged behavior. But that has nothing to do with a statiscal case. It should be Witt. No statistical case, but there is a historical one: assets.espn.go.com/mlb/news/1999/1109/161388.html
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