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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 9, 2022 10:35:00 GMT -5
I just realized Ohtani is a FA after this season. We will need a DH and a starter. Can I dream? I think the Angels control him for 2023 Shit I think you’re right. Well if anyone is wondering i’m in for paying Ohtani 50 mill a year when he’s a FA. Imagine a middle of the lineup Devers Bogaerts Ohtani Story Sale Ohtani Pivetta Bello Winckowski
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2022 12:59:32 GMT -5
I just realized Ohtani is a FA after this season. We will need a DH and a starter. Can I dream? I think the Angels control him for 2023 This presents an interesting scenario for LAA - do they go all in on Ohtani, whom they've made the face of their franchise? And if so, can they afford to have two players on a $206M (so-called "competitive balance tax")payroll afford two players who have a combined $75M AAV (or more)? Which may bring up the ugly conversation: "Is it time to trade Mike Trout?" Because if they went there, about 20 or so teams would be in the bidding immediately with SUVs full of top prospects. And what the Angels need more than anything are prospects, mostly pitching.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2022 13:23:39 GMT -5
Baltimore has a better record than the Angels with a payroll of about 1/8th as much.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2022 14:47:34 GMT -5
Baltimore is only 4 out in the WC and won 6/10. They have better records than some pretenders (White Sox, Angels) and are only one game behind Cleveland.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 9, 2022 15:15:15 GMT -5
I think the Angels control him for 2023 This presents an interesting scenario for LAA - do they go all in on Ohtani, whom they've made the face of their franchise? And if so, can they afford to have two players on a $206M (so-called "competitive balance tax")payroll afford two players who have a combined $75M AAV (or more)? Which may bring up the ugly conversation: "Is it time to trade Mike Trout?" Because if they went there, about 20 or so teams would be in the bidding immediately with SUVs full of top prospects. And what the Angels need more than anything are prospects, mostly pitching. I think they keep Ohtani no matter what. Ohtani has shown that money isn't as important to him as most players and will likely take a discount to stay with the Angels unless he is unhappy for some reason (losing?), so you keep Ohtani and worry about the rest after. If they need to trade Trout, they trade him. Wouldn't be the worst idea, but I imagine they would try to keep both for marketing purposes.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 9, 2022 19:50:03 GMT -5
This presents an interesting scenario for LAA - do they go all in on Ohtani, whom they've made the face of their franchise? And if so, can they afford to have two players on a $206M (so-called "competitive balance tax")payroll afford two players who have a combined $75M AAV (or more)? Which may bring up the ugly conversation: "Is it time to trade Mike Trout?" Because if they went there, about 20 or so teams would be in the bidding immediately with SUVs full of top prospects. And what the Angels need more than anything are prospects, mostly pitching. I think they keep Ohtani no matter what. Ohtani has shown that money isn't as important to him as most players and will likely take a discount to stay with the Angels unless he is unhappy for some reason (losing?), so you keep Ohtani and worry about the rest after. If they need to trade Trout, they trade him. Wouldn't be the worst idea, but I imagine they would try to keep both for marketing purposes. I would love to see trout traded to the Mets. Being out in California, I have hardly gotten to see him play much in his spectacular career and if he is on the Mets, the whole world will see his talent regularly.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 9, 2022 20:08:14 GMT -5
This is a thread about the 2022 rotation. Let’s stay on topic. Thanks.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 9, 2022 22:20:01 GMT -5
So, how about that 2022 rotation?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 9, 2022 22:31:56 GMT -5
But seriously folks, the 2021 rotation had only 3 starts made by starters outside the top seven in team starts. Just over halfway into the season, they're already up to 8, including two bullpen games started by Austin Davis.
The starting rotation at the moment is so devastated that they've started AAA arms in their last four games, all vs. AL East iron.
But color me not terribly worried. The team continues to resemble the 2021-22 Bruins, who staggered through the regular season with occasional flashes of brilliance but with seldom a worry about making the playoffs.
But I like their playoff chances better than I ever liked the Bruins', in large part due to the construction of the rotation. It's deep and the staff is bound to enter October with 7 or more "starting" pitchers, several of whom will be free to play the rover role that served the team so well in 2018.
I have a mind to go to the window and check on their pennant odds tomorrow morning...
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Post by taiwansox on Jul 10, 2022 0:11:21 GMT -5
But seriously folks, the 2021 rotation had only 3 starts made by starters outside the top seven in team starts. Just over halfway into the season, they're already up to 8, including two bullpen games started by Austin Davis. The starting rotation at the moment is so devastated that they've started AAA arms in their last four games, all vs. AL East iron. But color me not terribly worried. The team continues to resemble the 2021-22 Bruins, who staggered through the regular season with occasional flashes of brilliance but with seldom a worry about making the playoffs. But I like their playoff chances better than I ever liked the Bruins', in large part due to the construction of the rotation. It's deep and the staff is bound to enter October with 7 or more "starting" pitchers, several of whom will be free to play the rover role that served the team so well in 2018. I have a mind to go to the window and check on their pennant odds tomorrow morning... Yeah honestly I’m more worried about the offense. We can get help from a pitcher like Paxton even, but on the hitting side, we either need a trade or for Casas to get healthy and perform (unlikely). I’d like to see Pivetta get skipped or get extra rest around the All-Start break. The only question for me is Hill because I don’t see him as a top 7 starter or as a serviceable reliever
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 10, 2022 8:59:15 GMT -5
I’m all for trading 3 top 15 prospects as long as we keep our top 3 for Castillo.
2022 Rotation
Sale Castillo Evoladi Pivetta Wacha
2023 Rotation
Sale Castillo Pivetta Paxton Bello
If we did made this trade we would be done with our rotation next year and can focus on RP/X/Devers/RF
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 11, 2022 0:42:48 GMT -5
I’m all for trading 3 top 15 prospects as long as we keep our top 3 for Castillo. 2022 Rotation Sale Castillo Evoladi Pivetta Wacha 2023 Rotation Sale Castillo Pivetta Paxton Bello If we did made this trade we would be done with our rotation next year and can focus on RP/X/Devers/RF I'm a little torn on this one. Castillo's stuff is just shameless, as we saw first hand last month, but I think you only make a move like this, especially for only 1.5 years of control, when you're only that one piece away from being a slam-dunk contender. There are too many other holes to fill right now.
I also don't think you walk away from that table with all of your top 3 still in your possession...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 11, 2022 7:33:22 GMT -5
I’m all for trading 3 top 15 prospects as long as we keep our top 3 for Castillo. 2022 Rotation Sale Castillo Evoladi Pivetta Wacha 2023 Rotation Sale Castillo Pivetta Paxton Bello If we did made this trade we would be done with our rotation next year and can focus on RP/X/Devers/RF I'm a little torn on this one. Castillo's stuff is just shameless, as we saw first hand last month, but I think you only make a move like this, especially for only 1.5 years of control, when you're only that one piece away from being a slam-dunk contender. There are too many other holes to fill right now. I also don't think you walk away from that table with all of your top 3 still in your possession...
I can't imagine that the Reds would trade Castillo to the Red Sox without demanding Bello quite frankly. If I were the GM of the Reds I'd want Bello to replace Castillo. With the Red Sox, I don't see the need for big splashy moves. They could use a 1b and/or rf and a RH reliever or two. They don't need to trade off the depth of their system beyond the guys who they can't protect on their 40. As they're seeing now with all these injuries, depth is important. Castillo is a really good pitcher, but it's not like he's some annual Cy Young candidate. I wouldn't give up the farm for him or anybody else whether it's Bryan Reynolds or Bednar or whoever. I think there are improvements to be made but I think Bloom will do it in a measure incremental way. Let's face it, an average RF or slightly above average 1b (there are a lot of 1b available for trade) will help the Sox immensely and while I prefer a closer with experience, there could be other RH relievers who could help. I think between Pivetta, Eovaldi, Sale, Wacha, Paxton, Bello, Winckowski, Hill, and Crawford I think they should be able to find four healthy effective arms by September to use for a post season series, my guess being that it will be Eovaldi/Pivetta/Sale/Wacha (or Bello or even Paxton if one of those guys doesn't pan out). And honestly given the attrition of arms and the fact that Eovaldi is a free agent next year and you can't rely on the health of Sale and Paxton or necessarily even Whitlock, I don't think the Sox are overly eager to give up the next wave beyond Bello, which is Walter, Murphy, and Groome (I have a feeling Seabold will be out for quite awhile).
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 21, 2022 16:21:56 GMT -5
... currently consists of 3 pitchers. IIRC, that's two less than you need.
It's unclear when Winck will clear his COVID status, so we may need either one or two bodies for the upcoming homestand.
They can of course call Bello back up when Sale is put on the IL. That seems almost certain. He was actually pretty good in his second start, just unlucky.
Guys on COVID IL can be replaced by a non-40-man player who can then be sent down ... but they replaced Winck with Darwinzon. Unfortunately, they added Ort to the actual 40-man five days before Winck went down.
If Winck has to miss another start, I have no idea whether we can now option Darwinzon and replace him temporarily with Murphy. If we can't, we can select Murphy (who will be added in November regardless) and worry about the 40-man jam later. They would need to clear a roster spot now and 2 or 3 more later for Barnes, Paxton, and maybe Taylor.
Who would get trimmed? They are so thin on pitching depth at present (with 11 guys on the IL, including Walter) that the obvious trim, Valdez, is probably a bad idea. Ronaldo Hernandez, probably.
If it's just one missed Winck start it probably makes more sense to start Whitlock and have him go 3 innings.
If they can get a couple of bodies back before the deadline they can maybe deal Valdez to an NL club for an apparent nothing (but actually something) return; he should be MLB-caliber against unfamiliar hitters. And I still like the idea of moving Diekmann and $$$ for an undervalued prospect.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2022 16:24:02 GMT -5
I'm telling you, we're gonna see a Groome spot start or two this year. Being on the 40 already is the reason why.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Jul 21, 2022 17:32:43 GMT -5
Baltimore has a better record than the Angels with a payroll of about 1/8th as much. The key idea is team vs two players. I could see Bloom adding Ohtani to the 2023 rotation if available. He would be worth $20,000,000 as a DH, and $25,000,000 as a top of the rotation #1 or #2. He would be a value even at $35,000,000. Sale Ohtani Paxton Pivetta Bello Winckowski Murphy Walter Crawford Oh that is more than five starters….lol…what a great problem to have….they use some in the bullpen and some to trade for position players they do not have….
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 22, 2022 1:27:39 GMT -5
I'm telling you, we're gonna see a Groome spot start or two this year. Being on the 40 already is the reason why. I can’t imagine that happening but this season I wouldn’t be surprised. We needed that all star break. I don’t remember the last time our team was this banged up. The good thing is Bobby Bombs has been healthy all year lol.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,941
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 22, 2022 7:52:02 GMT -5
Who would get trimmed? They are so thin on pitching depth at present (with 11 guys on the IL, including Walter) that the obvious trim, Valdez, is probably a bad idea. Ronaldo Hernandez, probably.
Hernandez's season, I just discovered:
.119 / .140 / .202 (87 PA) through May 19
.364 / .379 / .595 (187 PA) since
So maybe not. Anyone know if he's made defensive progress?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 5, 2022 14:23:55 GMT -5
(moved to a more appropriate thread)
The thing I have yet to see you acknowledge is that the injury risk is why these guys are cheaper. If Wacha and Hill and Paxton were all certain to have perfect health they'd be a lot more expensive and the Red Sox wouldn't be able to afford them. As it is they've gotten 143 IP and 1.9 fWAR in two-thirds of a season from these guys, so they're on pace for basically 3 WAR for their $17 million investment.
Now you could complain that the Red Sox never invest a lot in top-line starters - it's just that that complaint would be false. They are paying Sale $26 million and Eovaldi $17 million and Price $16 million this season. They've gotten less than 1 WAR combined out of those guys.
It seems a little odd to me that between the 2 WAR/$17 million group and the 1 WAR/$59 million, you reserve all of your complaining for the former rather than the latter.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 5, 2022 14:37:22 GMT -5
(haha, still trying to keep this conversation here, and botching the formatting in the process...) Which illustrates the fact that paying more for pitchers is risky, too; they're never a sure bet. This is a complaint about the JBJ and, I guess, Diekman signings; it's not relevant to the point I raised. It's 1.0 Wacha and 0.9 Hill by fWAR. So certainly not almost all Wacha. In any case, this very point could justify the approach - if you say "we'll spread our investment around to multiple guys in the hopes that one of them hits big" and then one of them hits big, that means your strategy worked.
And then you're complaining about Diekman again for some reason. I agree with you on that totally unrelated topic: Diekman didn't work out. (But Hill and Diekman only combined for $9 million in salary this year, and while I don't understand why we're arbitrarily grouping them together, they're roughly on pace to be worth it.)
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Post by manfred on Aug 5, 2022 14:49:44 GMT -5
(haha, still trying to keep this conversation here, and botching the formatting in the process...) Which illustrates the fact that paying more for pitchers is risky, too; they're never a sure bet. This is a complaint about the JBJ and, I guess, Diekman signings; it's not relevant to the point I raised. It's 1.0 Wacha and 0.9 Hill by fWAR. So certainly not almost all Wacha. In any case, this very point could justify the approach - if you say "we'll spread our investment around to multiple guys in the hopes that one of them hits big" and then one of them hits big, that means your strategy worked.
And then you're complaining about Diekman again for some reason. I agree with you on that totally unrelated topic: Diekman didn't work out. (But Hill and Diekman only combined for $9 million in salary this year, and while I don't understand why we're arbitrarily grouping them together, they're roughly on pace to be worth it.)
bWAR has Hill at .3. My point about the finances was in response to your bringing in finances. They got guys cheaper because of injury issues. Ok. This brings up the question how well did they spend? Did they *have* to go cheaper? And it seems like you could answer, well, they already have three highly paid guys. Ok! Or you could say, well, there *was* money, it is just much of it was wasted. Or you could say, well, once over the tax line, why not just go the distance and create as competitive a team as possible? This was about injuries. I say you can’t be surprised when you get guys who are chronically hurt and they get hurt. You say yes but that was factored into their prices. And I ask, why did they *need* to go cheap? All I’m saying really is injuries are partly chance but you know some guys are going to struggle to complete a season. At what point do Bloom defenders hold him at all accountable? It seems like every point anyone brings up about him — not just by me — wagons get circled. I don’t remember such devotion to an executive.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 5, 2022 15:08:19 GMT -5
(haha, still trying to keep this conversation here, and botching the formatting in the process...) Which illustrates the fact that paying more for pitchers is risky, too; they're never a sure bet. This is a complaint about the JBJ and, I guess, Diekman signings; it's not relevant to the point I raised. It's 1.0 Wacha and 0.9 Hill by fWAR. So certainly not almost all Wacha. In any case, this very point could justify the approach - if you say "we'll spread our investment around to multiple guys in the hopes that one of them hits big" and then one of them hits big, that means your strategy worked.
And then you're complaining about Diekman again for some reason. I agree with you on that totally unrelated topic: Diekman didn't work out. (But Hill and Diekman only combined for $9 million in salary this year, and while I don't understand why we're arbitrarily grouping them together, they're roughly on pace to be worth it.)
bWAR has Hill at .3. My point about the finances was in response to your bringing in finances. They got guys cheaper because of injury issues. Ok. This brings up the question how well did they spend? Did they *have* to go cheaper? And it seems like you could answer, well, they already have three highly paid guys. Ok! Or you could say, well, there *was* money, it is just much of it was wasted. Or you could say, well, once over the tax line, why not just go the distance and create as competitive a team as possible? This was about injuries. I say you can’t be surprised when you get guys who are chronically hurt and they get hurt. You say yes but that was factored into their prices. And I ask, why did they *need* to go cheap? All I’m saying really is injuries are partly chance but you know some guys are going to struggle to complete a season. At what point do Bloom defenders hold him at all accountable? It seems like every point anyone brings up about him — not just by me — wagons get circled. I don’t remember such devotion to an executive. I've criticized Bloom on several points. Barnes. JBJ. CBT. It's all there in the Bloom thread. Meanwhile, what kind of contortions does it take to blame Bloom rather than Dombrowski for the rotation's woes, given the Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. Sale/Eovaldi/Price comparison I started with?
But look, you started out by criticizing the Wacha/Hill/Paxton signings; I'm saying those have worked out on a value basis. You say they should have spent more on the starting rotation; I say they did, but the guys they spent big on worked out even worse. Now you're left arguing "Wacha/Hill/Paxton were bad signings because, even though they've returned decent value, the team shouldn't have spent so much on JBJ." This is not a coherent argument.
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Post by manfred on Aug 5, 2022 15:12:35 GMT -5
bWAR has Hill at .3. My point about the finances was in response to your bringing in finances. They got guys cheaper because of injury issues. Ok. This brings up the question how well did they spend? Did they *have* to go cheaper? And it seems like you could answer, well, they already have three highly paid guys. Ok! Or you could say, well, there *was* money, it is just much of it was wasted. Or you could say, well, once over the tax line, why not just go the distance and create as competitive a team as possible? This was about injuries. I say you can’t be surprised when you get guys who are chronically hurt and they get hurt. You say yes but that was factored into their prices. And I ask, why did they *need* to go cheap? All I’m saying really is injuries are partly chance but you know some guys are going to struggle to complete a season. At what point do Bloom defenders hold him at all accountable? It seems like every point anyone brings up about him — not just by me — wagons get circled. I don’t remember such devotion to an executive. I've criticized Bloom on several points. Barnes. JBJ. CBT. It's all there in the Bloom thread. Meanwhile, what kind of contortions does it take to blame Bloom rather than Dombrowski for the rotation's woes, given the Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. Sale/Eovaldi/Price comparison I started with?
But look, you started out by criticizing the Wacha/Hill/Paxton signings; I'm saying those have worked out on a value basis. You say they should have spent more on the starting rotation; I say they did, but the guys they spent big on worked out even worse. Now you're left arguing "Wacha/Hill/Paxton were bad signings because, even though they've returned decent value, the team shouldn't have spent so much on JBJ." This is not a coherent argument.
Well, I guess the value depends on which WAR you use. Price is gone and returned a package of Verdugo, Downs, and Wong, so that is a bit complicated. And again… this was about the injuries. I never said Bloom bears sole responsibility for the staff. But luckily next year DD’s fingerprints will be almost entirely wiped clean, so we will have a much improved staff.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 5, 2022 15:16:53 GMT -5
I've criticized Bloom on several points. Barnes. JBJ. CBT. It's all there in the Bloom thread. Meanwhile, what kind of contortions does it take to blame Bloom rather than Dombrowski for the rotation's woes, given the Wacha/Hill/Paxton vs. Sale/Eovaldi/Price comparison I started with?
But look, you started out by criticizing the Wacha/Hill/Paxton signings; I'm saying those have worked out on a value basis. You say they should have spent more on the starting rotation; I say they did, but the guys they spent big on worked out even worse. Now you're left arguing "Wacha/Hill/Paxton were bad signings because, even though they've returned decent value, the team shouldn't have spent so much on JBJ." This is not a coherent argument.
Well, I guess the value depends on which WAR you use. Price is gone and returned a package of Verdugo, Downs, and Wong, so that is a bit complicated. And again… this was about the injuries. I never said Bloom bears sole responsibility for the staff. But luckily next year DD’s fingerprints will be almost entirely wiped clean, so we will have a much improved staff. Oh come on now! Price being included in that deal prevented the return from being better! His actual cost to the team is more than $16 million/year.
But yes, other than Sale this will be Bloom's roster next season. I'm very curious to see what he does on the starting rotation in particular. He's seemed disinclined to make big pitcher signings, but he also hasn't really had the flexibility to do so. So we'll see if that changes.
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Post by manfred on Aug 5, 2022 15:21:14 GMT -5
Well, I guess the value depends on which WAR you use. Price is gone and returned a package of Verdugo, Downs, and Wong, so that is a bit complicated. And again… this was about the injuries. I never said Bloom bears sole responsibility for the staff. But luckily next year DD’s fingerprints will be almost entirely wiped clean, so we will have a much improved staff. Oh come on now! Price being included in that deal prevented the return from being better! His actual cost to the team is more than $16 million/year.
But yes, other than Sale this will be Bloom's roster next season. I'm very curious to see what he does on the starting rotation in particular. He's seemed disinclined to make big pitcher signings, but he also hasn't really had the flexibility to do so. So we'll see if that changes.
My point with Price is Bloom dealt him, so he is not a “performance” issue. Not even an injury issue. He *is* a dead money issue. That would be bad if they were trying to stay under the tax and so couldn’t do what they wanted. But since they didn’t, I guess dead money is only a mild inconvenience.
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