Post by ramireja on Mar 24, 2022 18:52:04 GMT -5
Starting a new three up, three down to serve as something of a deeper predictions thread for minor leaguers this upcoming year. Honestly, we have a lot of interesting young talent, particularly among recent international crops that make predicting risers tough. I'm going to pass on Bleis who despite being ranked #15 already, seems destined to rise, perhaps even soon as the SP guys lay their eyes on him. I'm pretty high on him, Juan Chacon, and Jhostynxon Garcia but will instead feature:
Three up:
1. Enderso Lira (Current ranking: 33, Predicted year-end ranking: 8-15 range): Shoutout to Addam603 in the superlatives thread predicting Lira as his breakout player. I have to agree. I mentioned this elsewhere but his approach numbers were elite last year in the DSL despite being of the youngest cohort in the league. I love to see that kind of polish at a young age and although its the DSL, in a relative sense, his approach was still elite compared to his peers. Because he's a C and apparently has the tools and aptitude to stick there, any offensive upside goes a lot farther. He showed very little power last year (IsoP: .090) but he has the frame to add power and the contact is there now (11.1 K%) while keeping the ball off ground (62.3% LD + FB%). Honestly, all the indicators are exciting for me and I see multiple paths to a 50 FV value player thinking he gets closer to that project (45 FV) by year's end.
2. Brandon Walter (Current ranking: 17, Predicted year-end ranking: 6-10 range): I wrote a little about Walter's dominance last year here if you want to revisit some of his stats. He really was pretty dominant but he was also quite old for the level. So was it a mirage? I don't think so. I think there are three legit pitches to use with weapons against both RHB and LHB. I think there is both swing-and-miss capability plus ideal batted ball data when contact is made. I gush over the combo of the two. He may be more control over command right now and his delivery doesn't scream starter. That said, I'm predicting an impact reliever or backend starter that would warrant a spot in the top 10 of the system if proving himself at AA and above this year.
3. Tyler Uberstine (Current ranking: Unranked, Predicted year-end ranking: 45-60 range): I'm going to go out on a weird limb here because it wouldn't be as fun to pick 3 guys already on the prospect radar. Uberstine was drafted in the 19th round of last year's draft without much pedigree. That said he showed some interesting traits in the MLB Draft League with outstanding Hop/Hop+ (i.e., flat vertical approach angle, more rise than run, visually jumps through the strike zone) on his FB that sits 92-94. On top of that, he has two secondaries in a CH and SL that produced whiff rates > 35% in the draft league. Looking at some clips of Uberstine, the secondaries look pretty nice visually and I can see why they lead to swings and misses. Anyways, I'm not predicting this guy to be a stud, but he could have enough of a 3-pitch mix to earn a starting role in Salem (reminder: Low-A) this year with success there putting him on the prospect map. I definitely like him as a late round pick.
Three down:
1. Jeter Downs (Current ranking: 5, Predicted year-end ranking: 15-20 range): Unfortunately, I don't think the swing and miss is going away any time soon. I hope to be proven wrong (as I do for any Sox minor league that I'm bearish on). Although I think he'll break the Mendoza Line, I'm still anticipating a BA between say .220 and .250. Downs does get to most of his raw power and speed so thats a nice part of his game and still gives him a shot at a major league bench position. That said, I'm strongly off of a 50FV projection and honestly have a hard time seeing 45FV as well. A 40 FV project puts him in a broader tier of players in the system but I can see him dropping to the late teens or so this year with further struggles.
2. Connor Seabold (Current ranking: 11, Predicted year-end ranking: 15-20 range): I'm not predicting a big drop for Seabold. In fact, I kind of like him but his health and consistency is a bit of a concern at the moment. I still hold out hope that he has a major league future but my prediction of a drop is more about optimism that he may be surpassed by some higher ceiling types this year while he maintains a similar projection.
3. Jeisson Rosario (Current ranking: 49, Predicted year-end ranking: Unranked): I see the plummet continuing for Rosario while he's passed up in the rankings by a younger, exciting OF crop including Juan Chacon, Jhostynxon Garcia, and potentially Miguel Ugueto.
Three up:
1. Enderso Lira (Current ranking: 33, Predicted year-end ranking: 8-15 range): Shoutout to Addam603 in the superlatives thread predicting Lira as his breakout player. I have to agree. I mentioned this elsewhere but his approach numbers were elite last year in the DSL despite being of the youngest cohort in the league. I love to see that kind of polish at a young age and although its the DSL, in a relative sense, his approach was still elite compared to his peers. Because he's a C and apparently has the tools and aptitude to stick there, any offensive upside goes a lot farther. He showed very little power last year (IsoP: .090) but he has the frame to add power and the contact is there now (11.1 K%) while keeping the ball off ground (62.3% LD + FB%). Honestly, all the indicators are exciting for me and I see multiple paths to a 50 FV value player thinking he gets closer to that project (45 FV) by year's end.
2. Brandon Walter (Current ranking: 17, Predicted year-end ranking: 6-10 range): I wrote a little about Walter's dominance last year here if you want to revisit some of his stats. He really was pretty dominant but he was also quite old for the level. So was it a mirage? I don't think so. I think there are three legit pitches to use with weapons against both RHB and LHB. I think there is both swing-and-miss capability plus ideal batted ball data when contact is made. I gush over the combo of the two. He may be more control over command right now and his delivery doesn't scream starter. That said, I'm predicting an impact reliever or backend starter that would warrant a spot in the top 10 of the system if proving himself at AA and above this year.
3. Tyler Uberstine (Current ranking: Unranked, Predicted year-end ranking: 45-60 range): I'm going to go out on a weird limb here because it wouldn't be as fun to pick 3 guys already on the prospect radar. Uberstine was drafted in the 19th round of last year's draft without much pedigree. That said he showed some interesting traits in the MLB Draft League with outstanding Hop/Hop+ (i.e., flat vertical approach angle, more rise than run, visually jumps through the strike zone) on his FB that sits 92-94. On top of that, he has two secondaries in a CH and SL that produced whiff rates > 35% in the draft league. Looking at some clips of Uberstine, the secondaries look pretty nice visually and I can see why they lead to swings and misses. Anyways, I'm not predicting this guy to be a stud, but he could have enough of a 3-pitch mix to earn a starting role in Salem (reminder: Low-A) this year with success there putting him on the prospect map. I definitely like him as a late round pick.
Three down:
1. Jeter Downs (Current ranking: 5, Predicted year-end ranking: 15-20 range): Unfortunately, I don't think the swing and miss is going away any time soon. I hope to be proven wrong (as I do for any Sox minor league that I'm bearish on). Although I think he'll break the Mendoza Line, I'm still anticipating a BA between say .220 and .250. Downs does get to most of his raw power and speed so thats a nice part of his game and still gives him a shot at a major league bench position. That said, I'm strongly off of a 50FV projection and honestly have a hard time seeing 45FV as well. A 40 FV project puts him in a broader tier of players in the system but I can see him dropping to the late teens or so this year with further struggles.
2. Connor Seabold (Current ranking: 11, Predicted year-end ranking: 15-20 range): I'm not predicting a big drop for Seabold. In fact, I kind of like him but his health and consistency is a bit of a concern at the moment. I still hold out hope that he has a major league future but my prediction of a drop is more about optimism that he may be surpassed by some higher ceiling types this year while he maintains a similar projection.
3. Jeisson Rosario (Current ranking: 49, Predicted year-end ranking: Unranked): I see the plummet continuing for Rosario while he's passed up in the rankings by a younger, exciting OF crop including Juan Chacon, Jhostynxon Garcia, and potentially Miguel Ugueto.