Red Sox 2022 wins predictions thread

86-90 feels right

87-75 is my concrete prediction

Finally figured out how to fix it...

This year's team is better than last year's team, but not by a wide margin. The starting pitching is very worrisome. However, last year's team overachieved. This year's team will have to do likewise to better it.

My head says 86-90.
My heart says 91-95.

The Rays, Yanks, and Sox will be a game or two apart; the Blue Jays will be a handful better than all three. That team is due to explode.

I'll go with 84 wins.

They won 92 games with a team that should have won 88 games.

I don't think their luck will be as good this season and this bullpen will lose them some close games.

I think the Sox will be battling the Yankees for 3rd place but the Sox probably place 4th, and on the outside looking in as far as the playoffs go.

94 wins feels about right

89 Wins - High end, over-achievement prediction.

86 Wins - My gut/Sox-fan-brain. Also, playoff bid + make it to World Series.

83 Wins - Rough math/dispassionate trying-not-to-be-a-fan prediction.

73 Wins - Multiple starter injuries + regression + uneven pen + trading deadline sell-off prediction.

I have them at about .500 but with a lot of risk to the downside, meaning the possibility of a 2014 or 2015 scenario where a few things go wrong early and they never get it going.

I don't see any part of this team as outstanding. The offense is probably their strongest area, but I expect decline from JDM, KKH and less offense out of RF. The defense should be better than last year but I can't call it a strength with X and Raffy on the left side.

The four and five spots in the rotation look iffy and the BP is Whitlock and a bunch of guys Cora will have to sort through.

Just as I thought at the start of last year, I'd rather win 78 and sell at the deadline than be on the fringes of the race and either miss out on the PS or make an early exit from the PS. An 84-win season gets you nothing. You don't get future assets at the deadline and you draft in the second half of each round.

You never will know future results with certainty though, obviously if we knew for a fact the Red Sox weren't going to win the title this year it'd impact roster decisions but you have to play it out. Throwing away contending years just because you aren't the odds on favorite will decrease your chances over the long term of winning titles. Plus, even when you are the favorite to win it all, the field is the overwhelming real favorite. They were extremely close to making the WS last year, just because it didn't work out doesn't mean they were destined to fail.

In order for them to have won 78 games last year, their players would've had to play much worse than they actually did. Maybe you flip some short term value for long term value, but you'd also have many players lose trade value in this transaction, as a 14 win difference likely more than offsets any "gain" you've made in future value acquired through deadline trades. Like, okay, say they flipped Erod and other pieces and didn't buy Schwarber. They might've gained prospects, but in losing that many more games it's likely they didn't receive breakout performances from guys like Whitlock, Houck, and Hernandez or guys like X, Devers, or Eovaldi got hurt. Rooting for bad team performance is going to leave real consequences. If you're already out of contention, sure, rooting to bottom out in the second half is different.

I'm in the 86-90 group. As of now, I don't think the Sox have the pitching to save the offense when it hits rough patches during the season. I remember pitchers like Clemens, Pedro, Schilling and Beckett could stop losing streaks. I don't think the Sox have the one starter that can do that. Maybe Sale or Paxton can help later this year.  Although, they do have an offense that will generate runs and at times save the pitching staff. So, I think 86 to 88 wins with the team they have now.

Makes sense.

I know it sounds like a copout when doing predictions, but I usually try to pick s center figure within an 8 to 10 game swing in both directions.

The Sox talent level was about 88 wins last year and they won 92.

I think their talent level is about 84 wins, maybe 85 or 86. So I figure if a lot goes right they can with the division with about 94 wins and if all goes wrong they only win 74. Wide range, right?

In 2019 I figured their center figure was 95 wins and 85 wins was on their bottom range and they won 84.

I was way off last year. I think I had the Sox a bit under .500. I have my center too low so yeah I was really off.