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Post by vermontsox1 on Apr 10, 2022 10:59:14 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 10, 2022 11:09:22 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 10, 2022 11:29:09 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 10, 2022 11:34:14 GMT -5
The odds of Whitlock being a quality major league starter at the end of 2026 are probably well under 50%, but boy do the Red Sox make a killing on this deal if he is.
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Post by voiceofreason on Apr 10, 2022 11:48:28 GMT -5
Wow, that is out of the blue. This just doesn't happen very often and should happen more IMO. You should be able to get to a place where both parties are happy and start a good relationship early on.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on Apr 10, 2022 13:10:26 GMT -5
Nice work by Bloom
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Post by orion09 on Apr 10, 2022 14:22:07 GMT -5
So, if I’m getting this right… this buys out his last two league minimum years and his first two arbitration years, with options for his last arb and first FA year.
Figure he’ll make about $1.5M in his next two years, plus something like $5/10/15M in arbitration (assuming he stays healthy and sticks as a #4 starter). That’s $16.5M for the first four years, so those years of the deal are basically market value. The value here is having the options for his last arb year and first FA year, which collectively might be worth something like $35-40M.
If he sticks as a starter, the first FA year option is a definite win. If he turns into the #2 starter that he might he capable of, the deal is a massive win. If he gets hurt or never has another year like last year, they don’t exercise the last two option years and it’s not a huge loss. I like it.
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Post by julyanmorley on Apr 10, 2022 14:29:25 GMT -5
So, if I’m getting this right… this buys out his last two league minimum years and his first two arbitration years, with options for his last arb and first FA year. The 4 guaranteed years start next year, so it covers his first six years of service time and then the options are for would be free agency years. |
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Post by orion09 on Apr 10, 2022 14:37:16 GMT -5
So, if I’m getting this right… this buys out his last two league minimum years and his first two arbitration years, with options for his last arb and first FA year. The 4 guaranteed years start next year, so it covers his first six years of service time and then the options are for would be free agency years. Oops, right you are. So this buys out his last renewable year and 3 arb years, market value maybe $30M, with options for the first two FA years, market value maybe $17M/year. (Assuming he hits his 50%ish projection as a #4 starter.) |
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 10, 2022 14:56:00 GMT -5
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Post by notstarboard on Apr 10, 2022 16:00:20 GMT -5
This man is an actual teddy bear and I am so happy he's going to be around for a while |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 10, 2022 16:35:51 GMT -5
This makes a ton of sense for him. We know he's a good pitcher. At worst, this pays him to be a good pitcher through his arb seasons, even if he's in the bullpen. For Whitlock, he doesn't have to worry about how the team's use of him will affect how he's paid - a lack of saves or SP innings won't affect his arbitration earnings. That's pretty important and why this likely appealed to him. The Red Sox, meanwhile, pay him like a very good reliever at worst, or make a killing if he turns into an effective MLB starter.
Great deal for both sides, IMO.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 10, 2022 19:37:13 GMT -5
This makes a ton of sense for him. We know he's a good pitcher. At worst, this pays him to be a good pitcher through his arb seasons, even if he's in the bullpen. For Whitlock, he doesn't have to worry about how the team's use of him will affect how he's paid - a lack of saves or SP innings won't affect his arbitration earnings. That's pretty important and why this likely appealed to him. The Red Sox, meanwhile, pay him like a very good reliever at worst, or make a killing if he turns into an effective MLB starter. Great deal for both sides, IMO. And one more point, when he will be "overpaid" most will be next season when they have almost no payroll on the books. And if he's successful, his cap hit will be quite low later on in the contract when they presumably would need the money to spend more. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 11, 2022 6:21:34 GMT -5
So I think it's a $4.6875 AAV in the first 4 seasons (bonus, salaries, first buyout). Even in what would've been his final pre-arb year it's hard to call that overpaid.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 16, 2022 21:28:21 GMT -5
This was a smart move.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 17, 2022 13:58:15 GMT -5
101 pitchers with 30 batters faced. Whitlock is 4th in xwOBA and 8th in wOBA.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 17, 2022 16:34:26 GMT -5
So on average a little more than three pitches for each of the batters he's faced. Really efficient, a strike-thrower.
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