|
Post by grandsalami on Apr 24, 2022 18:47:36 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Apr 24, 2022 19:25:32 GMT -5
This twitter thread is a good read. Punchline is that 2021 seemed like a outlier with regards to a dead ball (10% fewer HRs than expected) but this year is being taken to an all new extreme.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Apr 24, 2022 19:55:22 GMT -5
The hitters made a big step forward with the launch angle revolution but don't seem to have figured out any new tricks. Meanwhile the average pitch quality increases every single year. And now MLB is trying to undo the 6 year old (or whatever) launch angle gains by making flyballs worse. The end result of all this tinkering is a league batting line of .229/.301/.364. Disaster.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 24, 2022 20:42:36 GMT -5
Less base hits and less runs scored is the pinnacle of enjoyment.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 24, 2022 22:08:48 GMT -5
Remember the "empty" .300 hitter? 20 years ago we used to mock managers who still played those kinds of guys over the three true outcomes types who hit .250. We were right at the time, but it continued to slide away from batting average, the understanding that strikeouts were no worse than any other out took hold, and there was a LOT less contact and more strikeouts. And... I think we all kinda miss the empty .300 hitter. So here's the thing - in 2021, that .225/.295/.490 type was better than a .300/.330/.370 player, even he's less fun. But if Player A is now a .440 SLG guy, and Player B is now like a .365 SLG guy, that's flipped and the ability to make more contact will make a difference.
Mike made this point in the gameday thread, but maybe that's part of what we're seeing with Dalbec? Obviously he's a guy with real power, but he's also someone who can't really afford to lose 15% of his homers.
Anyway, if fewer homers leads to fewer strikeouts which leads to more singles and doubles, that's fine with me, even if run scoring stays down. It will probably take a few years to correct though. The proliferation of relievers probably means we'll never see the league hit .270 again, but it's just part of the way the game is always evolving.
EDIT: OH. I neglected to mention the pitch clock which is definitely coming and will swing the pendulum back away from pitchers, particularly max effort relievers who take 35 seconds between every pitch. A lot of those 40% K rate dudes are going away.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Apr 25, 2022 7:37:22 GMT -5
MLB needs to publicize a plan, not stealthily make changes while denying it and then change it back.
I prefer less home runs, but I hate never knowing what is happening. It's not fair to GMs to change the game after rosters have been built.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Apr 25, 2022 8:04:21 GMT -5
If they made the ball lighter, then that would reduce homers while also increasing movement on pitches, right? I.e., the worst possible outcome. Whereas if they actually *deadened* the ball (e.g., by making it heavier and less elastic) that would reduce homers while also leading to more balls in play because it would also reduce movement on pitches (depending on how they distribute weight in the ball). Why MLB can't just solve this pretty basic physics problem is beyond me.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 25, 2022 9:05:47 GMT -5
MLB needs to publicize a plan, not stealthily make changes while denying it and then change it back. I prefer less home runs, but I hate never knowing what is happening. It's not fair to GMs to change the game after rosters have been built. Not making an announcement is lame. I THINK the goal is less home runs, but more base hits, but you can't do that a year before the shift is removed from the game. Now we're just getting ground balls to SS playing 2B and weak fly outs.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 25, 2022 9:09:13 GMT -5
The shift has nothing to do with it. Banning the shift leads directly to more home runs and strikeouts. If a power hitter's mishits are more likely to become base hits than outs then there's no incentive to change their approach. The shift is less effective against softly hit balls than a traditional alignment.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,793
|
Post by nomar on Apr 25, 2022 10:33:56 GMT -5
I love the MLB’s uncanny ability to identify an issue and set a goal, then choose a course of action that creates a multitude of new issues.
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Apr 25, 2022 11:40:32 GMT -5
The NFL seems to change its rules every year to make its game safer or more competitive. MLB is like that old fart who will never change. Their big new rule...clown bases. Like that does much. The 12 second pitch rule? When you think about it that's a long time to get the signal from the catcher and get ready to pitch. Count 12 seconds to yourself. See how long that is? Anything longer what's he thinking about? The blonde in the front row?
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 25, 2022 11:58:31 GMT -5
The shift has nothing to do with it. Banning the shift leads directly to more home runs and strikeouts. If a power hitter's mishits are more likely to become base hits than outs then there's no incentive to change their approach. The shift is less effective against softly hit balls than a traditional alignment. Maybe my theory is wrong, but I would think that a more dead ball and an open gap would create more hits and less home runs. If the ball change is permanent (which, who knows with how MLB seems to make the change on the fly) that we might see the return of the slap hitter.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,924
|
Post by ericmvan on Apr 25, 2022 16:28:30 GMT -5
BP did a major story on this today. The ball has more drag. Once it's up in the air, it doesn't carry like it used to. Exit velocities are not down (which would happen of the ball were less lively), it's the EV to distance relationship that has cratered. And BP actually measures this by velo out of the pitcher's hand vs. at home plate.
There's also a suggestion (too soon to tell for certain) that they are using two different balls, as they did last year. The terrible carry in Fenway may be the result of getting only the higher-drag balls while other parks got both.
|
|
|
Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 25, 2022 17:34:11 GMT -5
Assuming the information from BP is accurate, I wonder why we haven’t already heard from players, specifically high service time pitchers about the difference in how the high drag ball feels compared to last year’s ball. Wouldn’t one assume they’d be able to easily notice even extremely small changes in a baseball that they’ve used most of their adult lives?
If I’m Verlander or Rich Hill, or Kershaw I’d pipe up and say, “Yeah the laces feel higher (or whatever).” If you are that kind of player, you’re certainly secure enough in yourself to admit something like this. I mean you’re on a baseball team a bunch of hitters who are negatively impacted by the change MLB apparently (secretly) made to the ball. Why not say so even if the new ball benefits people who happen to play your own position (pitcher).
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Apr 25, 2022 17:50:37 GMT -5
The NFL seems to change its rules every year to make its game safer or more competitive. MLB is like that old fart who will never change. Their big new rule...clown bases. Like that does much. The 12 second pitch rule? When you think about it that's a long time to get the signal from the catcher and get ready to pitch. Count 12 seconds to yourself. See how long that is? Anything longer what's he thinking about? The blonde in the front row?A time-tested baseball tradition...
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Apr 25, 2022 18:21:10 GMT -5
How are they not testing this beforehand? Create a checklist of tests that the balls need to pass in a controlled environment to be deemed certified for a major league game.
It just boggles my mind that a multi-billion dollar industry has this issue time and time again.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Apr 25, 2022 22:56:30 GMT -5
How are they not testing this beforehand? Create a checklist of tests that the balls need to pass in a controlled environment to be deemed certified for a major league game. It just boggles my mind that a multi-billion dollar industry has this issue time and time again. It's difficult to say if/when MLB is being cheap with materials and quality control procedures and if/when they're intentionally altering the baseball. Seems like each occurrence could go either way.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Apr 26, 2022 11:46:02 GMT -5
blogs.fangraphs.com/how-bigger-bullpens-are-constraining-offense/Fangraphs article claiming that 15 man pitching staffs are having a big impact on offense. 1) Everyone is pulling starters before the third time through the order penalty because it's not very taxing on a 10 man pen 2) Relievers are pitching less on zero and one days rest 3) Relievers with bad preseason projections are annihilating expectations leaguewide. 4.99 projected ERA vs 3.60 actual ERA.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Apr 26, 2022 11:54:14 GMT -5
How are they not testing this beforehand? Create a checklist of tests that the balls need to pass in a controlled environment to be deemed certified for a major league game. It just boggles my mind that a multi-billion dollar industry has this issue time and time again. It's difficult to say if/when MLB is being cheap with materials and quality control procedures and if/when they're intentionally altering the baseball. Seems like each occurrence could go either way. I agree with you, but let's assume they deliberately tinkered with the ball. Do you really think they wanted these results? The product on the field is getting worse. It's that testing that I was thinking about. Not necessarily the quality control testing but the testing of things like drag, distance travelled off of a known EV/Launch angle to ensure that there aren't any unintended consequences with the changing ball.
|
|
|
Post by greenmonster on Apr 27, 2022 10:10:18 GMT -5
It is possible that they altered the seams on the baseball to offset the pitchers "need" for sticky stuff, and the unintended result is that the raised seams are causing increased drag on flyballs leading to shorter distance traveled.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Apr 27, 2022 11:38:50 GMT -5
The idea that there are two (or more) different balls being used is the unforgivable part. Any change to the baseball has to be equally implemented. There is no other acceptable option in a league where a different ball favors one team over another as a result of factors outside of team control. Even differences in balls within one team. Chris Bassit made reference to it last night in regards to the hit batters. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33813547/chris-bassitt-rips-mlb-new-york-mets-suffer-3-more-hbps-careBassitt blamed the baseballs, which he says are "all different.” "It's extremely annoying to see your teammates constantly get hit, and if you get hit by certain pitches it is what it is, but to get hit in the head the amount that we're getting hit is unbelievable," Bassitt said. "I had some close calls tonight, and I've been hit in the face [by a line drive] and I don't want to do that to anybody ever, but MLB has a very big problem with the baseballs. They're bad. Everyone in the league knows it. Every pitcher knows it. They're bad. "They don't care. MLB doesn't give a damn about it. They don't care. We've told them our problems with them, and they don't care.” This while simultaneously adding humidors, changing the use of tack on the ball and any other unknown changes is a recipe for disaster. When experimenting you don’t change multiple variables at one time. You can't trace which aspect is giving you the results you want or don’t want. I don’t disagree with the premise to get away a bit from the extreme three outcome oriented approach but Manfred just seems to be making it up as he goes. Throwing spaghetti on the wall to see what sticks.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 12:35:57 GMT -5
The idea that there are two (or more) different balls being used is the unforgivable part. Any change to the baseball has to be equally implemented. There is no other acceptable option in a league where a different ball favors one team over another as a result of factors outside of team control. Even differences in balls within one team. Chris Bassit made reference to it last night in regards to the hit batters. www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/33813547/chris-bassitt-rips-mlb-new-york-mets-suffer-3-more-hbps-careBassitt blamed the baseballs, which he says are "all different.” "It's extremely annoying to see your teammates constantly get hit, and if you get hit by certain pitches it is what it is, but to get hit in the head the amount that we're getting hit is unbelievable," Bassitt said. "I had some close calls tonight, and I've been hit in the face [by a line drive] and I don't want to do that to anybody ever, but MLB has a very big problem with the baseballs. They're bad. Everyone in the league knows it. Every pitcher knows it. They're bad. "They don't care. MLB doesn't give a damn about it. They don't care. We've told them our problems with them, and they don't care.” This while simultaneously adding humidors, changing the use of tack on the ball and any other unknown changes is a recipe for disaster. When experimenting you don’t change multiple variables at one time. You can't trace which aspect is giving you the results you want or don’t want. I don’t disagree with the premise to get away a bit from the extreme three outcome oriented approach but Manfred just seems to be making it up as he goes. Throwing spaghetti on the wall to see what sticks. Yes - it's just band-aid thinking trying to use some sort of new unannounced variable to somehow suppress the "Three true outcomes" thinking. The problem here is the unintended (best case) consequences are immediately hurting the quality of the games even more. Translation: Rob Manfred hates baseball.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 27, 2022 15:31:22 GMT -5
I'll buy that they're different, but I'm not understanding how the games are worse. Cheap Yankee Stadium BS aside, it's nice having more games decided by rallies and good pitching rather than just trading solo homers.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Apr 27, 2022 16:19:47 GMT -5
I'll buy that they're different, but I'm not understanding how the games are worse. Cheap Yankee Stadium BS aside, it's nice having more games decided by rallies and good pitching rather than just trading solo homers. I think they could generate more rallies if the umpires raised the bottom of the zone back to the knees rather than arbitrary points somewhere below the knees, depending on who has the plate that night.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Apr 27, 2022 17:23:34 GMT -5
I'll buy that they're different, but I'm not understanding how the games are worse. Cheap Yankee Stadium BS aside, it's nice having more games decided by rallies and good pitching rather than just trading solo homers. I think they could generate more rallies if the umpires raised the bottom of the zone back to the knees rather than arbitrary points somewhere below the knees, depending on who has the plate that night. Oh, there are plenty of problems, from the umpiring, to the place of play, to the low rates of contact, the the draconian and outdated blackout rules that make it harder to grow the game. I have no shortage of grievances! But "it's too hard to hit a homer now" just doesn't bother me.
|
|