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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2013 16:04:31 GMT -5
There's a difference between 'best shape of his life' arguments and a skinny 23 year old adding what appears to be a decent amount of strength. It looked like he could barely hit the ball out of the infield last year.
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Post by honkbal on Jul 12, 2013 16:12:11 GMT -5
Somebody find me a player who
A) Has been able to maintain a .330+ BABIP and/or a 10% IFH% B) Doesn't have elite speed (or line drive power). C) Is a righty.
Seriously. Try it.
Point being, it's not just a matter of Iglesias regressing to his own previous performance, it's a matter of there really not being any other players who fit this profile of success over a sustained period of time.
Even if you think his hand-eye coordination and quickness makes him the best right-handed slap hitter of his generation, is there any way he hits better than, say .290/.340/.390?
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Post by sarasoxer on Jul 12, 2013 16:54:56 GMT -5
Wow you guys are examining Iggy with an electron microscope. It's down to the molecular level and I have eye strain. I'm just happy that he has had such a great start and I can see (from the macro) that his plate discipline and strike zone judgment have improved. He has apparently bought into the Sox approach of patience. I look forward to seeing him come to the plate now (along with Carp). He looks confident and comfortable at the dish. He has matured before our eyes.
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Post by mainesox on Jul 12, 2013 16:55:11 GMT -5
Somebody find me a player who A) Has been able to maintain a .330+ BABIP and/or a 10% IFH% B) Doesn't have elite speed (or line drive power). C) Is a righty. Seriously. Try it. Point being, it's not just a matter of Iglesias regressing to his own previous performance, it's a matter of there really not being any other players who fit this profile of success over a sustained period of time. Even if you think his hand-eye coordination and quickness makes him the best right-handed slap hitter of his generation, is there any way he hits better than, say .290/.340/.390? I don't have a dog in this fight (so to speak) because I have no idea how much of what he's doing I think is sustainable, but you got me curious about that profile of player. The first guys that came to mind for me were Michael Young, Derek Jeter, and Howie Kendrick; Young hits a lot of line drives (24% for his career vs ~20% league average), so he's probably out, but Jeter and Kendrick fit that profile pretty well. Neither of them have elite speed (Jeter has stolen 30 bases on a few different occasions, but the vast majority of his career he was a ~15-20 SB guy), both have a BABIP north of .330 (.341 for Kendrick, .354 for Jeter), and both hit a roughly average number of line drives (Kendrick at 20.0% and Jeter at 20.2% - worth noting that Iglesias is at 20.0% this year). Also probably worth noting that Jeter has hit ground balls 58% of the time and Kendrick has hit them 53.8% of the time, and ground balls also carry a high BABIP (relative to fly balls) - Iglesias has hit them 52.9% of the time this year (and 54.9% of the time for his MLB career).
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Post by honkbal on Jul 12, 2013 17:22:17 GMT -5
Mark Loretta and Jamey Carrol are some other guys, like Michael Young, who have been able to maintain high BABIPs on line drive rate.
Good call on Jeter and Kendrick, though both have more power than we're ever likely to see from Iglesias.
I looked at the last ten seasons on Fangraphs, filtered by players with 1000+ PA over that span, sorted by ISO and looked for BABIPs higher than .310. It's rare enough on its own, but nearly all of the players who manage it are lefty burners. Jason Kendall had a few years that came close, but again he had more power.
You know who makes a great comp for Iglesias' ceiling, though? Elvis Andrus without the stolen bases.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2013 17:29:31 GMT -5
I've watch quite a few of Iglesias at bats, not nearly all of them but enough to feel comfortable saying he's not driving the ball consistently ths isn't a guy who's squaring the ball up making line drive outs left and right. Jmei, isn't wrong in pointing to the perceived lucky hits. The guy has made an art form into pounding the ball into the ground 3ft in front of the plate. I haven't looked at his fan graphs numbers so this is all coming from my eyes. That's not to say here isn't improvement. I've actually been a big believer in him possibly having an Ozzie Smith like batting progression vs a Ray Ordonez type flatline so I'm not a Jose hater.
He's changed up his stance. This has caused a noticeable improvement in pitch recognition. To me, this is far and away his biggest change.the power talk and "best shape of his life crap" is intellectual laziness more then anything. Sorry, I really hate when people say that. It's hypocritical in and of itself.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,990
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Post by jimoh on Jul 12, 2013 17:36:33 GMT -5
I've watch quite a few of Iglesias at bats, not nearly all of them but enough to feel comfortable saying he's not driving the ball consistently ths isn't a guy who's squaring the ball up making line drive outs left and right. Jmei, isn't wrong in pointing to the perceived lucky hits. The guy has made an art form into pounding the ball into the ground 3ft in front of the plate. I haven't looked at his fan graphs numbers so this is all coming from my eyes. That's not to say here isn't improvement. I've actually been a big believer in him possibly having an Ozzie Smith like batting progression vs a Ray Ordonez type flatline so I'm not a Jose hater. He's changed up his stance. This has caused a noticeable improvement in pitch recognition. To me, this is far and away his biggest change.the power talk and "best shape of his life crap" is intellectual laziness more then anything. Sorry, I really hate when people say that. It's hypocritical in and of itself. You've watched "quite a few" at-bats on the tee-vee and have developed a theory and anyone who has other ideas is displaying intellectual laziness?
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 12, 2013 17:42:55 GMT -5
How do I get a work-at-home scouting job?
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Post by azblue on Jul 12, 2013 17:56:03 GMT -5
Iglesias may only have "average" speed, but his ACTUALY times to first base are the equal of many fast players who do not get out of the box well or only turn on the speed half way to first base. Iglesias and Holt have been turning almost routine ground balls into infield hits or close calls.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 12, 2013 18:03:41 GMT -5
I've watch quite a few of Iglesias at bats, not nearly all of them but enough to feel comfortable saying he's not driving the ball consistently ths isn't a guy who's squaring the ball up making line drive outs left and right. Jmei, isn't wrong in pointing to the perceived lucky hits. The guy has made an art form into pounding the ball into the ground 3ft in front of the plate. I haven't looked at his fan graphs numbers so this is all coming from my eyes. That's not to say here isn't improvement. I've actually been a big believer in him possibly having an Ozzie Smith like batting progression vs a Ray Ordonez type flatline so I'm not a Jose hater. He's changed up his stance. This has caused a noticeable improvement in pitch recognition. To me, this is far and away his biggest change.the power talk and "best shape of his life crap" is intellectual laziness more then anything. Sorry, I really hate when people say that. It's hypocritical in and of itself. You've watched "quite a few" at-bats on the tee-vee and have developed a theory and anyone who has other ideas is displaying intellectual laziness? Ummmmm.... Not at all what was said, but way to follow the thread.... I hate the term intellectual laziness - hence the" really hate when people say that" comment. Moonstone made the comment - above- perhaps you didn't read that far back but soon one else makes the same mistake there you have it, There's no theory to be had, but when someone calls someone else intellectually lazy and then akes the " he's in the best shape of his life argument, most likely ill comment. Oddly enough, I'm a big believer in the undercurrent of moonstones point. People like to use statistics for everything and then call anyone else an idiot if they make a point of view that either is against statistical odds or god forbid talk about something that isn't measurable. As if something doesn't exist if it can't be put into statistical form, He lost me with the intellectual lazy comment. That's why I threw it back at him... Got it? Great
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Post by jmei on Jul 12, 2013 18:58:49 GMT -5
Frankly, the difference between a .280 BABIP and a .320 one, while important for WAR-type calculations (.260/.300/.350 with plus-plus defense and average baserunning is 2.6 WAR; the same profile with .280/.320/.370 is 3.3 WAR), does not change the plan going forward for the front office that much. I think pretty much everyone here agrees that Iglesias is penciled in as the starting SS next season, but if Xander's knocking on the door and WMB proves he's closer to his 2012 self than his 2013 self, Iglesias' starting role will be at risk. EDIT: WAR calculations per this excellent and easy-to-use tool.
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Post by jdb on Jul 16, 2013 8:27:16 GMT -5
Dave Cameron at Fangraphs has started his annual top 50 trade value series. His first one has 26 guys that just missed the cut for various reasons and Iglesias was on this list of players. Not bad and if BC does decide to sell high im guessing the return wouldn't be to shabby. www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2013-trade-value-just-missed-the-cut/
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 15:03:34 GMT -5
I am not sure I agree with that. If Iglesias is the player you say he is, then the Red Sox best move is Bogarts at SS, and find a 3B. If Iglesias is really a .500 OPS player as opposed to a .700 OPS player, then they are almost better off with Kevin Fransden or Brock Holt at 3B and Bogarts at SS.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 15:14:14 GMT -5
I am not sure I agree with that. If Iglesias is the player you say he is, then the Red Sox best move is Bogarts at SS, and find a 3B. If Iglesias is really a .500 OPS player as opposed to a .700 OPS player, then they are almost better off with Kevin Fransden or Brock Holt at 3B and Bogarts at SS. Are we assuming that Middlebrooks never figures out his swing again and becomes a AAAA player as opposed to living up to his potential as he did in his rookie season?
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Post by jmei on Jul 16, 2013 15:16:12 GMT -5
I'm not sure where you get the .500 OPS figure from-- I've never suggested that he's anywhere near that bad. I see him as a .250/.300/.350 player (maybe a little lower on the SLG), which is only a little below-average offensively for a shortstop.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2013 15:57:21 GMT -5
That's about what Ordonez was. Not sure if you suggested that yourself but you did post an article that suggested that he was like Ordonez. Ordonez BTW was only that good because he was an 8th place hitter in the NL.
When I said "find a 3B", Middlebrooks I guess could be the 3B they could find. I honestly don't know what to think of him right now, though most stories like his don't have happy endings.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 16, 2013 16:29:46 GMT -5
FWIW Middlebrooks BBIP in AAA - which is admittedly a small sample - is at .221 while ISO is .197 and BB:K is 1:2 - he may be getting a bit unlucky up there. His numbers are also being dragged down by his away splits (.154/.219/.154 in 39 at bats) which makes me think the bus trips really have him feeling the demotion.
On the positive side, when he's up in counts (29 ABs) he's .276/.432/.489
All very small samples, but still too early to attribute all this to not having happy endings. Unless we want to talk about the team masseuse.
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Post by jchang on Sept 6, 2021 13:21:08 GMT -5
took a lot to find this thread. any bets on Rusney Castillo?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 6, 2021 13:24:38 GMT -5
These are some ice ice cold takes in this thread. Welcome back
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 6, 2021 13:24:42 GMT -5
took alot to find this thread "Deleted" would be pleased
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Post by vokuhila on Sept 6, 2021 13:58:11 GMT -5
Iglesias had a lot of leather p*rn highlights but this is the action I think of when I hear his name And of course what followed
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