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The Future Of Center Field
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Post by notnickyorke on May 14, 2022 4:03:46 GMT -5
Its no secret that multiple positions on the Red Sox this year have been horrifically underwhelming (C, 1st, 2nd, RF, CF). The one I am most concerned about is center field. There is no one currently in the system that projects to be able to handle it in the next two years, and the free agent market is particularly atrocious. The only inspiring players are Brandon Nimmo and Lorenzo Cain, and neither seem like everyday options. You can dream on Jimenez and Rafaela, but neither seems likely to be ready before 2024. I haven't heard anyone say positive things about Duran's defense in a while now. With the way Kiki and Bradley are performing, its a good bet the centerfielder next year will be coming from outside the organization. All that being said, I think one of the top priorities going into the trade deadline should be adding a centerfielder who is also under control for 2023. Whether that is getting a top prospect from a contender because the Red Sox are selling off, or acquiring an established centerfielder from a selling team because the Sox are still in it. I could even see Bloom selling off major pieces the Red Sox have internal have replacements for (Bogarets, Martinez, Eovaldi) and using the prospect capital to acquire other major leaguers under control after 2022, if they are already out of the race. Especially since they are already looking at a 40man roster crunch this off season. Below are some interesting names to consider while teams are still figuring out if the are contenders or not. Not all of them seem likely, but the seem like the best fits for what the the Red Sox need. Ramon Laureano - Oak www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/laurera01.shtmlCedric Mullins - BAL www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mullice01.shtmlDaulton Varsho - ARI www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/varshda01.shtmlBryan Reynolds - PIT www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/reynobr01.shtml |
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Post by ematz1423 on May 14, 2022 5:44:46 GMT -5
Nimmo is a really good player currently at 1.4 WAR. Is he an answer at CF? I'm not sure, he seems more of a COF but of all the FA OFers he'd be the one I'd target first and heavily if I was Bloom. That's if the Mets don't pay him a giant offer themselves which I could see them giving him.
But overall I agree with your sentiment that CF is a giant concern right now possibly More so than any other position on the diamond. They at least appear to have options for SS/2nd base in the org.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 14, 2022 7:29:50 GMT -5
Laureano and Reynolds are very good targets
I don’t see the O’s moving Mullins within the division and Varsho is such a unique player I think it would be really hard to get him
Like honestly, who the hell plays good defense at catcher AND in CF?
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Post by notstarboard on May 14, 2022 7:30:35 GMT -5
If he keeps up his current level of production for the season, I want JBJ in CF next year. His mutual option seems attractive to both him and the Sox for luxury tax reasons; should be 1/12 with a 1/4 LT hit, unless the new CBA changed now options work. He's at 0.5 bWAR right now through 30 games, so a 2-3 bWAR pace. That is awesome at that salary.
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Post by jimoh on May 14, 2022 7:31:58 GMT -5
It is certainly true that he is less than ideal defensively but I'm pretty sure that if Kiké is not here next year the Red Sox will stick Duran in CF and hope his speed gives him enough range and that his offense is above average.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on May 14, 2022 7:33:31 GMT -5
It is certainly true that he is less than ideal defensively but I'm pretty sure that if Kiké is not here next year the Red Sox will stick Duran in CF and hope his speed gives him enough range and that his offense is above average. I do honestly think that’s the mostly likely thing to happen |
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Post by ematz1423 on May 14, 2022 8:11:54 GMT -5
Laureano and Reynolds are very good targets I don’t see the O’s moving Mullins within the division and Varsho is such a unique player I think it would be really hard to get him Like honestly, who the hell plays good defense at catcher AND in CF? The rumored asking price for Reynolds is crazy from what ive read. I believe they asked for meyer and another one of the marlins best prospects. |
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Post by manfred on May 14, 2022 8:29:23 GMT -5
Who are the internal replacements for X, Eovaldi, and JDM? Am I missing the #1 starter they have ready to go? The guys ready to step in as two of their best 3 hitters?
Casas isn’t “replacing” anyone: he is filling a gaping hole at 1b. Who else is it that is close to cycling in?
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Post by redsox43 on May 14, 2022 8:33:49 GMT -5
If he keeps up his current level of production for the season, I want JBJ in CF next year. His mutual option seems attractive to both him and the Sox for luxury tax reasons; should be 1/12 with a 1/4 LT hit, unless the new CBA changed now options work. He's at 0.5 bWAR right now through 30 games, so a 2-3 bWAR pace. That is awesome at that salary. JBJ does seem like the best option, at the moment. There's not many answers out there in CF and the Sox don't have a true CF in the system besides Rafeala. A good CF is hard to find. This might be a problem 2 years down the road for the Sox unless Rafeala is a real player. Hate to see the Sox needing to trade real talent because they don't have a answer to the CF doubts down the line. Add- If JBJ moves to CF next year, the question still remains on who plays RF. So still need a outfielder one way or another next year. Unless you move Verdugo to RF and Duran is in LF. |
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on May 14, 2022 8:52:23 GMT -5
If he keeps up his current level of production for the season, I want JBJ in CF next year. His mutual option seems attractive to both him and the Sox for luxury tax reasons; should be 1/12 with a 1/4 LT hit, unless the new CBA changed now options work. He's at 0.5 bWAR right now through 30 games, so a 2-3 bWAR pace. That is awesome at that salary. Kiké splits seem to have regressed to him benefiting being RHH platoon option in CF. I doubt his value will be much next offseason so a platoon of him and JBJ would be preferable for me but they have to get some sort of corner OF power. |
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Post by ematz1423 on May 14, 2022 9:06:18 GMT -5
If he keeps up his current level of production for the season, I want JBJ in CF next year. His mutual option seems attractive to both him and the Sox for luxury tax reasons; should be 1/12 with a 1/4 LT hit, unless the new CBA changed now options work. He's at 0.5 bWAR right now through 30 games, so a 2-3 bWAR pace. That is awesome at that salary. Kiké splits seem to have regressed to him benefiting being RHH platoon option in CF. I doubt his value will be much next offseason so a platoon of him and JBJ would be preferable for me but they have to get some sort of corner OF power. I'd love Hernandez back next year to play the role I had presumed he was slated for last year before his breakout which was a super sub. I'd say I don't want him back if the plan would be to slot him in as the every day player at any given position. Maybe he gets it going again and proves me wrong but I see him better suited for that role and that last year was just a career type year. |
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Post by julyanmorley on May 14, 2022 10:55:06 GMT -5
Baseball reference has Jackie 7 runs above average in RF through 30 games. I don't think that is remotely plausible.
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Post by notstarboard on May 14, 2022 12:11:10 GMT -5
If he keeps up his current level of production for the season, I want JBJ in CF next year. His mutual option seems attractive to both him and the Sox for luxury tax reasons; should be 1/12 with a 1/4 LT hit, unless the new CBA changed now options work. He's at 0.5 bWAR right now through 30 games, so a 2-3 bWAR pace. That is awesome at that salary. JBJ does seem like the best option, at the moment. There's not many answers out there in CF and the Sox don't have a true CF in the system besides Rafeala. A good CF is hard to find. This might be a problem 2 years down the road for the Sox unless Rafeala is a real player. Hate to see the Sox needing to trade real talent because they don't have a answer to the CF doubts down the line. Add- If JBJ moves to CF next year, the question still remains on who plays RF. So still need a outfielder one way or another next year. Unless you move Verdugo to RF and Duran is in LF. I don't really want Verdugo in RF at Fenway. He can hold his own, but I'd prefer someone who can really defend. If Duran can only play LF and he proves he can hit this year, I'd consider trading Verdugo and rolling with Duran in LF. RF could be an FA. Nimmo? Haniger? ...Aaron Judge?  |
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Post by ematz1423 on May 14, 2022 13:39:13 GMT -5
JBJ does seem like the best option, at the moment. There's not many answers out there in CF and the Sox don't have a true CF in the system besides Rafeala. A good CF is hard to find. This might be a problem 2 years down the road for the Sox unless Rafeala is a real player. Hate to see the Sox needing to trade real talent because they don't have a answer to the CF doubts down the line. Add- If JBJ moves to CF next year, the question still remains on who plays RF. So still need a outfielder one way or another next year. Unless you move Verdugo to RF and Duran is in LF. I don't really want Verdugo in RF at Fenway. He can hold his own, but I'd prefer someone who can really defend. If Duran can only play LF and he proves he can hit this year, I'd consider trading Verdugo and rolling with Duran in LF. RF could be an FA. Nimmo? Haniger? ...Aaron Judge? Just spit balling for the OF next year. One of the main weaknesses I see is that they don't have a true RHH OF to platoon with Verdugo or JBJ. Shouldn't be too difficult to find a RHH lefty masher. Maybe a Stephen piscotty (career .277/.360/.467 vs lefties) or someone in that vein. That would likely help this offense a fair amount and would take so little in terms of term and $s that I'm still scratching my head why they didn't get one this offseason. Get a RHH lefty masher platoon partner and a legit every day guy like nimmo and voila the OF goes from weakness to at least average with potential to be above. I don't hate the idea of dealing Verdugo for something and running with Duran in LF. Depends what Duran shows this season though. |
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Post by orcoaster on May 14, 2022 14:12:05 GMT -5
I'd love to see Mullins in a Red Sox uniform, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. The price would be exorbitant.
JBJ, Duran (a Damon/Ellsbury-lite), and Kiké provide usable short term options.
The position that I hope is blinking RED on Bloom's board is catcher. It's weak now and there is no calvary coming. The only thing making it palatable is the general weakness at the position across the league. If Campusano can be wrenched away from SD, I'd get him.
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Post by redsox43 on May 14, 2022 17:18:12 GMT -5
I'd love to see Mullins in a Red Sox uniform, but I don't see that happening anytime soon. The price would be exorbitant. JBJ, Duran (a Damon/Ellsbury-lite), and Kiké provide usable short term options. The position that I hope is blinking RED on Bloom's board is catcher. It's weak now and there is no calvary coming. The only thing making it palatable is the general weakness at the position across the league. If Campusano can be wrenched away from SD, I'd get him. Yeah, this is one of the main reasons why I don't want to see the Sox trade for a CF. They're already going to have to do that at catcher, unless they sign a stop gap catcher in the off-season. A guy like Mike Zunnino. I wouldn't prefer doing that and paying for a catcher in decline. |
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Post by notnickyorke on May 16, 2022 4:52:42 GMT -5
Who are the internal replacements for X, Eovaldi, and JDM? Am I missing the #1 starter they have ready to go? The guys ready to step in as two of their best 3 hitters? Casas isn’t “replacing” anyone: he is filling a gaping hole at 1b. Who else is it that is close to cycling in? By internal replacements I meant someone in the minors or rehabbing who is near ready for a major league shot, that could field the position or slot in the rotation. Downs for Xander, Casas for JDM, and a number of guys for Eovaldi (Sale and Paxton this year, hopefully Bello or Seabold sometime next). If they are trading there best players on expiring contracts, they are not expecting to compete this year. The goal then becomes to see what you really have in your young players and retooling for the next window. Would they be expecting Jeter Downs to replace Xander's production? No, but maybe he would be an above average middle infielder that won't cost 30mil a season and allows them to spend on other parts of the roster. Is Seabold going to step in and be a #1 starter tomorrow? Probably not, but how many people were expecting Eovaldi to a #1 before 2020? |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 16, 2022 7:44:27 GMT -5
Who are the internal replacements for X, Eovaldi, and JDM? Am I missing the #1 starter they have ready to go? The guys ready to step in as two of their best 3 hitters? Casas isn’t “replacing” anyone: he is filling a gaping hole at 1b. Who else is it that is close to cycling in? By internal replacements I meant someone in the minors or rehabbing who is near ready for a major league shot, that could field the position or slot in the rotation. Downs for Xander, Casas for JDM, and a number of guys for Eovaldi (Sale and Paxton this year, hopefully Bello or Seabold sometime next). If they are trading there best players on expiring contracts, they are not expecting to compete this year. The goal then becomes to see what you really have in your young players and retooling for the next window. Would they be expecting Jeter Downs to replace Xander's production? No, but maybe he would be an above average middle infielder that won't cost 30mil a season and allows them to spend on other parts of the roster. Is Seabold going to step in and be a #1 starter tomorrow? Probably not, but how many people were expecting Eovaldi to a #1 before 2020? Seabold is not equal to Eovaldi. Eovaldi's stuff is ridiculous. Guy can throw 100 MPH into the 7th inning and has impeccable control. Seabold is nowhere near that. Seabold is likely a back half starter. Eovaldi was a highly regarded prospect, held back by injuries. It's not overly shocking that he can be a front line starter if healthy. Seabold is highly likely to never be a front line starter the way Eovaldi is. While he might prove quite useful, he's not going to be fronting a staff. The near immediate future of CF is Jarren Duran. With his lack of an arm, RF is less likely and they're not going to waste his speed in LF. The long-term future in CF? I'll guess Miguel Bleis, if he remains in CF. |
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Post by jbsox on May 16, 2022 8:12:10 GMT -5
By internal replacements I meant someone in the minors or rehabbing who is near ready for a major league shot, that could field the position or slot in the rotation. Downs for Xander, Casas for JDM, and a number of guys for Eovaldi (Sale and Paxton this year, hopefully Bello or Seabold sometime next). If they are trading there best players on expiring contracts, they are not expecting to compete this year. The goal then becomes to see what you really have in your young players and retooling for the next window. Would they be expecting Jeter Downs to replace Xander's production? No, but maybe he would be an above average middle infielder that won't cost 30mil a season and allows them to spend on other parts of the roster. Is Seabold going to step in and be a #1 starter tomorrow? Probably not, but how many people were expecting Eovaldi to a #1 before 2020? Seabold is not equal to Eovaldi. Eovaldi's stuff is ridiculous. Guy can throw 100 MPH into the 7th inning and has impeccable control. Seabold is nowhere near that. Seabold is likely a back half starter. Eovaldi was a highly regarded prospect, held back by injuries. It's not overly shocking that he can be a front line starter if healthy. Seabold is highly likely to never be a front line starter the way Eovaldi is. While he might prove quite useful, he's not going to be fronting a staff. The near immediate future of CF is Jarren Duran. With his lack of an arm, RF is less likely and they're not going to waste his speed in LF. The long-term future in CF? I'll guess Miguel Bleis, if he remains in CF. Bleis is so far away. Hard to project with him. what about Ceddanne Rafaela? His defense can probably already play there now. Will he hit enough? Hold the fort for 2 years until he is ready. I already seem to like him more than Duran as a viable CF. |
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 16, 2022 8:25:47 GMT -5
Seabold is not equal to Eovaldi. Eovaldi's stuff is ridiculous. Guy can throw 100 MPH into the 7th inning and has impeccable control. Seabold is nowhere near that. Seabold is likely a back half starter. Eovaldi was a highly regarded prospect, held back by injuries. It's not overly shocking that he can be a front line starter if healthy. Seabold is highly likely to never be a front line starter the way Eovaldi is. While he might prove quite useful, he's not going to be fronting a staff. The near immediate future of CF is Jarren Duran. With his lack of an arm, RF is less likely and they're not going to waste his speed in LF. The long-term future in CF? I'll guess Miguel Bleis, if he remains in CF. Bleis is so far away. Hard to project with him. what about Ceddanne Rafaela? His defense can probably already play there now. Will he hit enough? Hold the fort for 2 years until he is ready. I already seem to like him more than Duran as a viable CF. I'll buy that. |
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Post by redsox43 on May 16, 2022 13:11:42 GMT -5
Seabold is not equal to Eovaldi. Eovaldi's stuff is ridiculous. Guy can throw 100 MPH into the 7th inning and has impeccable control. Seabold is nowhere near that. Seabold is likely a back half starter. Eovaldi was a highly regarded prospect, held back by injuries. It's not overly shocking that he can be a front line starter if healthy. Seabold is highly likely to never be a front line starter the way Eovaldi is. While he might prove quite useful, he's not going to be fronting a staff. The near immediate future of CF is Jarren Duran. With his lack of an arm, RF is less likely and they're not going to waste his speed in LF. The long-term future in CF? I'll guess Miguel Bleis, if he remains in CF. Bleis is so far away. Hard to project with him. what about Ceddanne Rafaela? His defense can probably already play there now. Will he hit enough? Hold the fort for 2 years until he is ready. I already seem to like him more than Duran as a viable CF. Can Rafaela hit enough to be a viable starting player in the league? That's the million dollar question. He would still hold a lot of value in CF because of the defense. |
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Post by incandenza on May 16, 2022 13:30:06 GMT -5
Bleis is so far away. Hard to project with him. what about Ceddanne Rafaela? His defense can probably already play there now. Will he hit enough? Hold the fort for 2 years until he is ready. I already seem to like him more than Duran as a viable CF. Can Rafaela hit enough to be a viable starting player in the league? That's the million dollar question. He would still hold a lot of value in CF because of the defense. Last season, the best defensive CFer in the majors was also the worst hitting CFer. That'd be KC's Michael Taylor, who hit .244/.297/.356 and was +13 by OAA. That was good for 2.0 fWAR, i.e., it made him just about a league average player.
That's convenient for setting some parameters on what a major league-caliber CFer looks like. A .650 OPS plus cream-of-the-crop defense will get it done; draw down the defensive ability based on what you expect from Rafaela, and then draw up the offensive production he'd need to make it in the majors.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 16, 2022 14:07:00 GMT -5
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Post by orion09 on May 16, 2022 14:21:28 GMT -5
Can Rafaela hit enough to be a viable starting player in the league? That's the million dollar question. He would still hold a lot of value in CF because of the defense. Last season, the best defensive CFer in the majors was also the worst hitting CFer. That'd be KC's Michael Taylor, who hit .244/.297/.356 and was +13 by OAA. That was good for 2.0 fWAR, i.e., it made him just about a league average player.
That's convenient for setting some parameters on what a major league-caliber CFer looks like. A .650 OPS plus cream-of-the-crop defense will get it done; draw down the defensive ability based on what you expect from Rafaela, and then draw up the offensive production he'd need to make it in the majors.
Old friend Manny Margot might be another comp. The last 4 full seasons, he’s averaged .696 OPS, +10.8 OAA, and 1.7 fWAR. Better hitter than Taylor though |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 16, 2022 14:33:54 GMT -5
I think the fact that Rafaela is focusing exclusively on CF and SS this year shows they think his future is as a potential premier up-the-middle defender rather than a jack-of-all-trades type. I'm not sure that's necessarily better or worse, but throwing that out there. That said, I think you're looking more at 2024 with him.
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