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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2022 22:51:49 GMT -5
Here's the teams that I see Judge signing with, in order of likelihood:
LAD SF NYM LAA
SD MFY . . . . . . .
BOS
Totally agree, the West Coast spenders then NY teams, and it will be one of them. I can not see him going to a team like Colorado, Detroit, Chicago (either one)… It just does not look like a good fit for anyone other than who you liked! Boston would be about 25th on the list (only teams with low budgets and non-contenders would be less likely…. TB, Pit, Det, Bal…).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 5, 2022 0:04:00 GMT -5
Bloom is not giving Judge some humungous contract. That's so not his MO, so I don't even think about Judge in a Red Sox uniform.
I hope the Yankees lose him. Yes, they might be better off, but I feel like unless they get Soto, which if Rizzo is to be believed, isn't happening, then there's nobody in the same zipcode available as far as productivity goes so he'd be a huge loss that the Yankees wouldn't come close to replacing.
I suspect that unless the Giants, Dodgers, or Mets swoop in, Judge will return to the Yankees. The Sox aren't getting involved.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 5, 2022 1:40:22 GMT -5
I agree with your point that Cashman came out and really put the pressure on judge with his comments and judge has proceeded to be an absolute beast. The pressure is on the yankees. I think they end up paying him the big bucks and I kind of hope they do but at same time I kind of hope he goes elsewhere. He might be able to be a stud for most of his contract. It's kind of a similar scenario to what the sox are looking at with X. Possibly damned if they do and damned if they don't. I'm kind of spitting in the face of my original thought that I don't want the sox to give him a big a deal with my comment. It's tough to say though, but so is every big contract. I hope Judge signs with the Mets and hits 50 HRs a years for a couple years, frustrating all the Yankee fans, until his health blows up and he ends up like Ellsbury and Cano (being owed huge money while being released). Did you really just wish bad health on someone?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 5, 2022 10:54:56 GMT -5
ZiPS says Judge was worth a 7/140 extension before the season. He turned down 7/210 (possibly the Yankees are BS'ing about how generous the deal actually is). He has increased his value a lot so far this year. He seems destined to get a lifetime achievment award albatross contract from the Yankees for being their best homegrown player in 20 years. But I’d love to know if those contracts *are* financial albatrosses. That is, for example, what was Jeter worth in his last season? He may have been worth little on the field, but I bet the Yankees made a fortune off of him. If fans are going to follow cost, contracts, etc, then perhaps we need stats for it. Like WAR but $AR — how much do the Yankees make on Judge t-shirts etc. over an average OF? Take Trout. Even after he starts to decline, will his place on the Angels sell tickets, shirts, advertising etc? I bet. Even a guy like Cabrera chasing 3,000 hits likely sold many more tickets than the Tigers would based on product alone. I don't think anyone is looking at WAR because they care about a team's profit margins, though; they care about how much a player helps a team to win games, given financial constraints. The Yankees, like the Red Sox, set their budget close to the CBT. It's not because they have to, but that's what they do, and that means whatever money they spend on Judge is money they can't put toward another use. Judge at $35 million/year or whatever might help the Steinbrenner's turn a bigger profit, but it might indeed turn into an albatross in terms of Cashman's ability to build a winner.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 5, 2022 11:11:17 GMT -5
Here's the teams that I see Judge signing with, in order of likelihood: LAD SF NYM LAA
SD MFY . . . . . . .
BOS Yes. The LAD and NYM seem particularly good fits given their salary structures. They are two teams that could actually significantly outbid NYY. And I think the Mets and their fans, in particular, would enjoy this.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 5, 2022 13:55:11 GMT -5
Of course, Cashman's conundrum could've been Chaim's if Cherry had been something of a draft genius... I remember in the lead up to that draft that Judge was generally ranked in the mid-20s. I think people doubted his hit tool (which turns out to be legit) and saw him as an all-or-nothing raw bat. The MFYs even had Eric Jagielo higher on their board. Would that Cherry were bold enough to offer Judge the $2.2m at #7 that the Royals offered Hunter Dozier at #8 ...
EDIT: Every time I look back at that draft, I'm struck by how much of a dog's dinner it was. I just looked back again, 9 years later, and there are only 8 guys from the entire draft who have clocked 10 bWAR thus far. For reference, Brad Keller (who?) comes in at 9.4 bWAR, so 10 is not a wicked high bar...
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Post by Canseco on Jun 5, 2022 14:14:08 GMT -5
If Bloom allocates one cent toward Judge before locking up Devers and/or Bogaerts, I will be LIVID. Beyond livid.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 5, 2022 14:50:06 GMT -5
If Bloom allocates one cent toward Judge before locking up Devers and/or Bogaerts, I will be LIVID. Beyond livid. This was a question if Bogaerts walked only would I pursue Judge. I pray every night we keep the left side of the infield together for the next 5 years minimum.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 5, 2022 18:26:29 GMT -5
If Bloom allocates one cent toward Judge before locking up Devers and/or Bogaerts, I will be LIVID. Beyond livid. This was a question if Bogaerts walked only would I pursue Judge. I pray every night we keep the left side of the infield together for the next 5 years minimum. The entire infield... at least the guys who do the real fielding...
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2022 20:28:54 GMT -5
But I’d love to know if those contracts *are* financial albatrosses. That is, for example, what was Jeter worth in his last season? He may have been worth little on the field, but I bet the Yankees made a fortune off of him. If fans are going to follow cost, contracts, etc, then perhaps we need stats for it. Like WAR but $AR — how much do the Yankees make on Judge t-shirts etc. over an average OF? Take Trout. Even after he starts to decline, will his place on the Angels sell tickets, shirts, advertising etc? I bet. Even a guy like Cabrera chasing 3,000 hits likely sold many more tickets than the Tigers would based on product alone. I don't think anyone is looking at WAR because they care about a team's profit margins, though; they care about how much a player helps a team to win games, given financial constraints. The Yankees, like the Red Sox, set their budget close to the CBT. It's not because they have to, but that's what they do, and that means whatever money they spend on Judge is money they can't put toward another use. Judge at $35 million/year or whatever might help the Steinbrenner's turn a bigger profit, but it might indeed turn into an albatross in terms of Cashman's ability to build a winner.
Perfectly said! There are too many negatives to continuously go over the CBT. That is why teams do not do it. It is not because the teams can not afford it. Loosing draft choices and loosing draft money all help deplete the farm system (the necessary source of controllable, inexpensive, home grown players). That is one of the main reasons big money teams set their budget just below the CBT.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 5, 2022 20:37:41 GMT -5
I hope Judge signs with the Mets and hits 50 HRs a years for a couple years, frustrating all the Yankee fans, until his health blows up and he ends up like Ellsbury and Cano (being owed huge money while being released). Did you really just wish bad health on someone? Mother Nature will do her thing. I do not have any control. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS JINX OR CURSES! Only people who think they are the center of the universe think they have that control. Judge’s 30+ year old body will wear out when it wears out, but safe to say he will not play as well at 37 as he does now.
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jun 6, 2022 7:16:46 GMT -5
Did you really just wish bad health on someone? Mother Nature will do her thing. I do not have any control. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS JINX OR CURSES! Only people who think they are the center of the universe think they have that control. Judge’s 30+ year old body will wear out when it wears out, but safe to say he will not play as well at 37 as he does now. It's just kind of icky to root for. These are people up there and injuries... hurt.
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Post by notstarboard on Jun 6, 2022 7:26:52 GMT -5
I bet Judge is worth far more to the Yankees than anyone else. People can do the WAR:$ calculus for Jeter, but I bet the Yankees made a fortune off him in t-shirts, tix, etc. Judge is their face now in a similar way. I bet there are other guys in baseball who pay their own tax bill on extra team income. Ohtani, for example, must be worth a fortune even if his WAR dips. If this is simply about dollars, then there are guys who are worth mich more than their production might represent. On the one hand I agree he's more valuable to NYY than to anyone else, but on the other hand if that guy is hurting your playoff standing and forcing you to pay hefty luxury tax penalties to stay competitive that'll eat into those earnings. Regardless, though, since no fan cares what the Yankees' profit margin is, it would be spectacular for the Yankees to re-sign Judge. They can sell some tee shirts and we can win the division.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 6, 2022 15:53:31 GMT -5
Judge is more valuable to the Yankees because he's great at hitting cheap home runs over that little league RF fence.
Probably have at least 10 less HR in Fenway.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jun 6, 2022 17:55:49 GMT -5
Judge is more valuable to the Yankees because he's great at hitting cheap home runs over that little league RF fence. Probably have at least 10 less HR in Fenway. All the more reason to bid his price up. Center, right center and left center are more friendly at the Fens. Judge will likely take a discount to remain a Yankee from what I have read...but money talks at some point.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,228
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Post by cdj on Jun 6, 2022 18:16:23 GMT -5
I didn’t notice this until now but Judge has been so bad in his career at Fenway. It’s jarring.
.179/.273/.342 (22-123 with 5 homers and 11 RBI)
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jun 6, 2022 18:46:01 GMT -5
Let's not judge, er, Judge. Let the NYY or other teams pay his freight. I'd rather lock up Devers and/or spend $$$ elsewhere, for all the reasons other posters have already put forth.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 6, 2022 18:50:36 GMT -5
Mother Nature will do her thing. I do not have any control. THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS JINX OR CURSES! Only people who think they are the center of the universe think they have that control. Judge’s 30+ year old body will wear out when it wears out, but safe to say he will not play as well at 37 as he does now. It's just kind of icky to root for. These are people up there and injuries... hurt. From my reading, the hope was about signing with the Mets and bringing misery to MFY fans. The injury stuff was just an acknowledgment of fate...
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Post by dirtdog on Jun 6, 2022 20:42:06 GMT -5
IIRC he has had back issues. Nothing more incompatable than pro athletes and back issues. I'd be surprised if he left NY TBH>
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 8, 2022 9:36:29 GMT -5
It's just kind of icky to root for. These are people up there and injuries... hurt. From my reading, the hope was about signing with the Mets and bringing misery to MFY fans. The injury stuff was just an acknowledgment of fate... On the nose!
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