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Post by bosoxnation on Jun 4, 2022 13:08:06 GMT -5
Does anyone on planet earth besides me think we should offer Judge 10 years 400 if Bogaerts walks or at least make the Yanks sweat and overpay him even more. This is just a casual question let’s not over react 😂
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 4, 2022 13:21:58 GMT -5
I think it's fair to assume Aaron Judge will have a giant Red Sox offer waiting for him in the offseason.
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Post by incandenza on Jun 4, 2022 13:40:04 GMT -5
Well, barring major injury, he surely won't settle for less than the 7/213 extension the Yankees already offered him, and I would haaaate signing him at that price. Or specifically, for that number of years, which would run through his age 37 season. Doesn't seem like a very Bloomian move either.
The ideal outcome, as far as I'm concerned, is that the Yankees re-sign him for, say, 9/315.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 4, 2022 14:15:17 GMT -5
Albert Pujols hasn't had a 4-WAR season (B-Ref) since 2012 when he was 32 and in his first season with the Angels. Counting this year (zero WAR), he's had eight years below 2.
Judge will be 31 in the first year of his new contract. He's not as good as Pujols and has had trouble staying on the field. Signing him to a massive contract will guarantee multiple years of non-contention for some team.
Make it happen, Cashman!
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 4, 2022 14:29:44 GMT -5
No way in hell will he get 10 years unless a team tries to one-up the Angels and Tigers for dumbest and most obviously bad contract of all-time. (Pujols, Cabrera)
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 4, 2022 15:25:19 GMT -5
Injury history, whiff%, and age are quite the risk threesome with Judge. The guy absolutely mashes and seems like a great dude, but I wouldn’t risk the amount he’ll inevitably receive.
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Post by manfred on Jun 4, 2022 15:29:14 GMT -5
I bet Judge is worth far more to the Yankees than anyone else. People can do the WAR:$ calculus for Jeter, but I bet the Yankees made a fortune off him in t-shirts, tix, etc. Judge is their face now in a similar way.
I bet there are other guys in baseball who pay their own tax bill on extra team income. Ohtani, for example, must be worth a fortune even if his WAR dips.
If this is simply about dollars, then there are guys who are worth mich more than their production might represent.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jun 4, 2022 15:35:37 GMT -5
I bet Judge is worth far more to the Yankees than anyone else. People can do the WAR:$ calculus for Jeter, but I bet the Yankees made a fortune off him in t-shirts, tix, etc. Judge is their face now in a similar way. I bet there are other guys in baseball who pay their own tax bill on extra team income. Ohtani, for example, must be worth a fortune even if his WAR dips. If this is simply about dollars, then there are guys who are worth mich more than their production might represent. He can also play CF at Yankee stadium because it’s like playing COF in most other parks. So that actually does help them and make him a great fit there defensively alone.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 4, 2022 15:43:26 GMT -5
Judge also doesn't pull many balls in the air so Fenway would be the worst fit for him. He'd probably have as many HR as Devers in Fenway.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 4, 2022 15:44:19 GMT -5
ZiPS says Judge was worth a 7/140 extension before the season. He turned down 7/210 (possibly the Yankees are BS'ing about how generous the deal actually is). He has increased his value a lot so far this year.
He seems destined to get a lifetime achievment award albatross contract from the Yankees for being their best homegrown player in 20 years.
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Post by manfred on Jun 4, 2022 16:52:09 GMT -5
ZiPS says Judge was worth a 7/140 extension before the season. He turned down 7/210 (possibly the Yankees are BS'ing about how generous the deal actually is). He has increased his value a lot so far this year. He seems destined to get a lifetime achievment award albatross contract from the Yankees for being their best homegrown player in 20 years. But I’d love to know if those contracts *are* financial albatrosses. That is, for example, what was Jeter worth in his last season? He may have been worth little on the field, but I bet the Yankees made a fortune off of him. If fans are going to follow cost, contracts, etc, then perhaps we need stats for it. Like WAR but $AR — how much do the Yankees make on Judge t-shirts etc. over an average OF? Take Trout. Even after he starts to decline, will his place on the Angels sell tickets, shirts, advertising etc? I bet. Even a guy like Cabrera chasing 3,000 hits likely sold many more tickets than the Tigers would based on product alone.
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Post by pasadenasox on Jun 4, 2022 17:12:34 GMT -5
Does anyone on planet earth besides me think we should offer Judge 10 years 400 if Bogaerts walks or at least make the Yanks sweat and overpay him even more. This is just a casual question let’s not over react 😂 Hard pass. If they let X and Devers walk and offer Judge $400m (even if it is just for the LOLs) I might have to channel my inner Manfred.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jun 4, 2022 17:14:55 GMT -5
ZiPS says Judge was worth a 7/140 extension before the season. He turned down 7/210 (possibly the Yankees are BS'ing about how generous the deal actually is). He has increased his value a lot so far this year. He seems destined to get a lifetime achievment award albatross contract from the Yankees for being their best homegrown player in 20 years. But I’d love to know if those contracts *are* financial albatrosses. That is, for example, what was Jeter worth in his last season? He may have been worth little on the field, but I bet the Yankees made a fortune off of him. If fans are going to follow cost, contracts, etc, then perhaps we need stats for it. Like WAR but $AR — how much do the Yankees make on Judge t-shirts etc. over an average OF? Take Trout. Even after he starts to decline, will his place on the Angels sell tickets, shirts, advertising etc? I bet. Even a guy like Cabrera chasing 3,000 hits likely sold many more tickets than the Tigers would based on product alone. I'm sure those things matter at the margin, but the really important thing is to make sure you never end up selling 162 games, or 100 games, of a team that everybody knows ain't going nowhere.
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Post by pasadenasox on Jun 4, 2022 17:20:35 GMT -5
Overpaying for a guys decline years for the off-field business benefit is much more valuable if he was homegrown.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 4, 2022 17:24:44 GMT -5
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the MFY get to keep all the money that comes in from the sale of Judge shirts, etc. The union gets a big chunk of that money and the teams' share is subject to revenue sharing, I think.
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Post by pasadenasox on Jun 4, 2022 17:29:22 GMT -5
Someone can correct me if I'm wrong but I don't think the MFY get to keep all the money that comes in from the sale of Judge shirts, etc. The union gets a big chunk of that money and the teams' share is subject to revenue sharing, I think. Correct, in that they don't keep it all. I'm not sure what the allocations are under the new CBA.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 4, 2022 18:09:23 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I really just have no interest in judge after reading the contract he turned down from the yankees.
Edit: I don't think judge ages well being a huge human with back issues already. He's just not who I think they should throw money at.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jun 4, 2022 18:20:29 GMT -5
Call me crazy but I really just have no interest in judge after reading the contract he turned down from the yankees. Don't get mad, but I'm not going to grant your wish and call you crazy. I'm going to call you SANE! Signings like that are precisely the kind of screwups Bloom was hired to avoid. His FA signings of star players are going to be intelligent and value oriented, as the Story deal shows. We'll know more about his approach to building the ML team once some salary clears of the books and we start getting more impact from the farm.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2022 19:28:37 GMT -5
Well, barring major injury, he surely won't settle for less than the 7/213 extension the Yankees already offered him, and I would haaaate signing him at that price. Or specifically, for that number of years, which would run through his age 37 season. Doesn't seem like a very Bloomian move either.
The ideal outcome, as far as I'm concerned, is that the Yankees re-sign him for, say, 9/315.
Judge will turn out as fantastic for the Yankees as Jacoby Ellsbury did. Whether it is 7 years or longer, whoever signs Judge will regret it very long before the contract is over. Maybe very can slip him some steroids, then when he is suspended, they can try and void his contract. I hope it is the Yankees that sign him so they can clog up their balance sheet. Cashman was smart enough to let Cano go (DFA by Seattle with $37,000,000 still owed), so he may let Judge go too. (The next contact is for what he does in the future…not this year).
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jun 4, 2022 19:58:04 GMT -5
As much as I worry about some of the trades the Yankees pull off and definitely their IFA successes, their drafting doesn't really scare me.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 4, 2022 20:17:48 GMT -5
The trick for the MFYs is that they're already paying $30m+ to Stanton and that pitcher who falls apart when the pre-game ceremony goes long (don't know why I can't remember his name). DJLM and Hicks are both signed for a while and they add up to $26m. How much can they really afford to pay Judge and still limbo under the bar?
Throw in the fact that Cashman has already poisoned the well (to give himself cover for when Judge walks?) and that Judge is a California kid, and I think there's no guarantee that he stays in Gotham.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Jun 4, 2022 20:28:35 GMT -5
The trick for the MFYs is that they're already paying $30m+ to Stanton and that pitcher who falls apart when the pre-game ceremony goes long (don't know why I can't remember his name). DJLM and Hicks are both signed for a while and they add up to $26m. How much can they really afford to pay Judge and still limbo under the bar? Throw in the fact that Cashman has already poisoned the well (to give himself cover for when Judge walks?) and that Judge is a California kid, and I think there's no guarantee that he stays in Gotham. I agree with your point that Cashman came out and really put the pressure on judge with his comments and judge has proceeded to be an absolute beast. The pressure is on the yankees. I think they end up paying him the big bucks and I kind of hope they do but at same time I kind of hope he goes elsewhere. He might be able to be a stud for most of his contract. It's kind of a similar scenario to what the sox are looking at with X. Possibly damned if they do and damned if they don't. I'm kind of spitting in the face of my original thought that I don't want the sox to give him a big a deal with my comment. It's tough to say though, but so is every big contract.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 4, 2022 21:52:23 GMT -5
The trick for the MFYs is that they're already paying $30m+ to Stanton and that pitcher who falls apart when the pre-game ceremony goes long (don't know why I can't remember his name). DJLM and Hicks are both signed for a while and they add up to $26m. How much can they really afford to pay Judge and still limbo under the bar? Throw in the fact that Cashman has already poisoned the well (to give himself cover for when Judge walks?) and that Judge is a California kid, and I think there's no guarantee that he stays in Gotham. I agree with your point that Cashman came out and really put the pressure on judge with his comments and judge has proceeded to be an absolute beast. The pressure is on the yankees. I think they end up paying him the big bucks and I kind of hope they do but at same time I kind of hope he goes elsewhere. He might be able to be a stud for most of his contract. It's kind of a similar scenario to what the sox are looking at with X. Possibly damned if they do and damned if they don't. I'm kind of spitting in the face of my original thought that I don't want the sox to give him a big a deal with my comment. It's tough to say though, but so is every big contract. I hope Judge signs with the Mets and hits 50 HRs a years for a couple years, frustrating all the Yankee fans, until his health blows up and he ends up like Ellsbury and Cano (being owed huge money while being released).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jun 4, 2022 22:15:11 GMT -5
Here's the teams that I see Judge signing with, in order of likelihood:
LAD SF NYM LAA
SD MFY . . . . . . .
BOS
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 4, 2022 22:38:49 GMT -5
The Red Sox don’t need to run up his contract when he is gonna have all the big bidders going for him. Would be kind of funny for the Mets to out bid the Yankees and get him. Mets fans would be able to make fun of Yankees fans at least for an off season.
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