SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
7/4-7/6 Red Sox vs. Rays Series Thread
|
Post by blizzards39 on Jul 6, 2022 22:49:31 GMT -5
This is where the advanced metrics don’t match the eyeball test. Because you can talk about the “surplus value” there, but I just don’t see it. Story’s defense has been great(better than I expected), but his bat has been a huge letdown. He’s a strikeout machine who had a couple scorching weeks with the bat. That might trick the advanced stats, but it doesn’t trick those who are watching the games. Clearly watching the games does you no good too. He’s an elite defender with pop and he’s one of the few guys who actually hits with guys on and consistently knocks in runners Can’t argue Story is on pace for 30 HR 110rbi
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,204
|
Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 22:56:42 GMT -5
Clearly watching the games does you no good too. He’s an elite defender with pop and he’s one of the few guys who actually hits with guys on and consistently knocks in runners Can’t argue Story is on pace for 30 HR 110rbi Couple that w elite D = visibly high end player, regardless of their feefees Same ppl get their panties in a bunch over losing Renfroe because he was a 30-100 guy lol Basically Story sucks because he hasn’t hit enough singles in front of JBJ and Dalbec lol
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Jul 6, 2022 23:35:41 GMT -5
Can’t argue Story is on pace for 30 HR 110rbi Couple that w elite D = visibly high end player, regardless of their feefees Same ppl get their panties in a bunch over losing Renfroe because he was a 30-100 guy lol Basically Story sucks because he hasn’t hit enough singles in front of JBJ and Dalbec lol How much was Renfroe making? Apples and oranges. I don’t think anyone is saying Story sucks or anything, but it is fair to say a guy with a sub-.300 OBP and a sub-100 OPS+ is not what people expected in year one of a big contract. I expect he’ll pick it up, but I dread subbing him in for X.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,204
|
Post by cdj on Jul 6, 2022 23:37:55 GMT -5
Couple that w elite D = visibly high end player, regardless of their feefees Same ppl get their panties in a bunch over losing Renfroe because he was a 30-100 guy lol Basically Story sucks because he hasn’t hit enough singles in front of JBJ and Dalbec lol How much was Renfroe making? Apples and oranges. I don’t think anyone is saying Story sucks or anything, but it is fair to say a guy with a sub-.300 OBP and a sub-100 OPS+ is not what people expected in year one of a big contract. I expect he’ll pick it up, but I dread subbing him in for X. You’re right it is apples and oranges, Renfroe was a butcher in RF and almost a bigger negative in the playoffs than Dalbec. Story can at least positively impact the team if he goes 1 for the ALCS! I suppose that’s why he makes real honest coin money I’m just saying people can’t cry about losing his 30-100 while using those exact counting stats to justify the crying and then turn around and incessantly complain about a guy with the same counting stats. Not saying that’s you, because it isn’t. I’m honestly not dreading Bogaerts walking at all provided they add another bat. He’s not trending in a positive direction with his peripherals and he’s at the age where that can happen. Of course he can get scorching hot in July and things will change in a hurry, but as of this moment I would not be comfortable giving him the 150-200 mill he undoubtedly wants I also don’t think it’s a coincidence that they added their best defensive player which led to their infield defense vastly improving and the pitching staff seemingly improving as well
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 7, 2022 0:08:02 GMT -5
This is where the advanced metrics don’t match the eyeball test. Because you can talk about the “surplus value” there, but I just don’t see it. Story’s defense has been great(better than I expected), but his bat has been a huge letdown. He’s a strikeout machine who had a couple scorching weeks with the bat. That might trick the advanced stats, but it doesn’t trick those who are watching the games. I think you might still be underestimating the defense. His fWAR is propped up by being the 24th best defensive player in baseball. Offensively he's the 179th best, which is what your eyes are seeing. When people so far are saying he's worth his contract, we're paying a lot for his defense right now. Good analysis. I guess I didn’t realize they dropped $140m on a defensive specialist.
|
|
|
Post by sarasoxer on Jul 7, 2022 7:00:40 GMT -5
Are they really going to DFA Davis when Taylor is available to return? idk I dont see it. Not they are gonna DFA Taylor, he’s sitting 90-92 True enough on the velo...and last time I looked, he has been pummeled.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 7, 2022 7:09:39 GMT -5
Not they are gonna DFA Taylor, he’s sitting 90-92 True enough on the velo...and last time I looked, he has been pummeled. Per Ian, his velo was back up a little last night.
|
|
|
Post by redsox43 on Jul 7, 2022 7:13:18 GMT -5
I do think it's a fair question to ask whether they should have, on top of Story, also "invested" in Schwarber as the future DH for 2023. Sure they'd be over the threshold, but with JDM coming off the books net-net it wouldn't be a big hit long-term. The one move I could have questioned was trading for JBJ's 12 million. You could have traded (or non tendered) Renfroe and resigned Schwarber for 8 million more dollars. Schwarber at 1B/LF for a year. Verdugo in RF until Franchy would have inevitably came up after he tore up AAA. The Sox would have had very little depth in CF, but they could have signed a low cost backup CF. Not signing Schwarber makes sense if the Sox finagle their way under the luxury tax threshold. If they go over it this year anyways, then yeah it seems like they left a lot of opportunity on the table. I still think there's a chance the Sox trade for Schwarber next off-season. The Phillies have too many DH's on that team.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Jul 7, 2022 7:36:35 GMT -5
I think you might still be underestimating the defense. His fWAR is propped up by being the 24th best defensive player in baseball. Offensively he's the 179th best, which is what your eyes are seeing. When people so far are saying he's worth his contract, we're paying a lot for his defense right now. Good analysis. I guess I didn’t realize they dropped $140m on a defensive specialist. I'm supporting your statement and you have to be a prick about it? He's not performing offensively to what we expected right now, 179th in offensive WAR is not what we paid for, from 2018-2020 he was one of the top offensive players in baseball (park adjusted): 115th in 2021 37th in 2020 33rd in 2019 29th in 2018 With that said, his defense is still giving us value and that's why the advanced stats like him right now. They aren't failing the eyeball test, they are calling him out for not being good on offense. And underneath that, he's likely salvaging a below-replacement ability to deliver (i.e. getting contact, not striking out) with his strong power numbers.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 7, 2022 7:57:07 GMT -5
This is where the advanced metrics don’t match the eyeball test. Because you can talk about the “surplus value” there, but I just don’t see it. Story’s defense has been great(better than I expected), but his bat has been a huge letdown. He’s a strikeout machine who had a couple scorching weeks with the bat. That might trick the advanced stats, but it doesn’t trick those who are watching the games. I think you might still be underestimating the defense. His fWAR is propped up by being the 24th best defensive player in baseball. Offensively he's the 179th best, which is what your eyes are seeing. When people so far are saying he's worth his contract, we're paying a lot for his defense right now. Also "I don't see his surplus value, so therefore the data telling me it exists must be wrong" is a terrible argument, but I admire your patience
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 7, 2022 8:05:18 GMT -5
Couple that w elite D = visibly high end player, regardless of their feefees Same ppl get their panties in a bunch over losing Renfroe because he was a 30-100 guy lol Basically Story sucks because he hasn’t hit enough singles in front of JBJ and Dalbec lol How much was Renfroe making? Apples and oranges. I don’t think anyone is saying Story sucks or anything, but it is fair to say a guy with a sub-.300 OBP and a sub-100 OPS+ is not what people expected in year one of a big contract. I expect he’ll pick it up, but I dread subbing him in for X. Story: 98th percentile OAA (his best since 2019), 30th percentile xwOBA (his worst since 2017). Bogie: 41st percentile OAA (his best since 2017), 53rd percentile xwOBA (his worst since 2017). Bogie's offensive numbers are better, but he's been extremely lucky so far. Story's about right on his expected stats.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 7, 2022 8:53:35 GMT -5
How much was Renfroe making? Apples and oranges. I don’t think anyone is saying Story sucks or anything, but it is fair to say a guy with a sub-.300 OBP and a sub-100 OPS+ is not what people expected in year one of a big contract. I expect he’ll pick it up, but I dread subbing him in for X. Story: 98th percentile OAA (his best since 2019), 30th percentile xwOBA (his worst since 2017). Bogie: 41st percentile OAA (his best since 2017), 53rd percentile xwOBA (his worst since 2017). Bogie's offensive numbers are better, but he's been extremely lucky so far. Story's about right on his expected stats. Bogaerts always overperforms his xwOBA though. His wOBA - xwOBA is .027 which based on eyeballing the numbers is basically right at his career average. And it's true that .341 is tied for his worst xwOBA since 2017 but his best is only .363; he's very consistently stayed within a narrow range. He really hasn't been "lucky" at all.
Meanwhile, because offense is down across the league, his wRC+ of 138 is the second highest of his career. And again, he's been very consistent - always in a range of 130 to 141 in every season since 2018.
More subjectively, I'd add that I don't think his lower power numbers this season are predictive. It would be weird to suddenly lose power at age 29 when everything else is going right with his offensive performance. I expect the power to come around.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Jul 7, 2022 9:18:31 GMT -5
Story also actually has a position too Which is factored in, since a good deal of his WAR is from defense. Story has been fine in a Bellhornian way. He has not lived up to his contract, however, (early days!) and needs to be much better if they let X go and shift him to SS. I don’t think the argument is precisely Story or Schwarber… but it is that there was a guy who signed for a lot less doing as well (better at the plate). If this team’s offense is not great, and if you take X out and lean even more on Story, it doesn’t look good. I wouldn't say he hasn't lived up to his contract; he's on pace for a 4 WAR season but is being paid like a 3 WAR player. Of course you would like to see overperformance in the early years of a big contract, but I'd say he's basically on pace to be worth his contract.
Speaking of wOBA/xwOBA divergence, Story is underperforming his xwOBA by .007. But like Bogaerts he has overperformed his xwOBA every year of his career (which is not surprising considering his speed), so in that sense he's been a bit unlucky, and should probably be around a 110 wRC+ rather than the 97 he's currently at... 110 being, incidentally, exactly his career number.
As for Schwarber vs. Story, it's an interesting counterfactual, especially as #1 on my offseason wish list was bringing back Schwarber. In the counterfactual: - Schwarber in LF, Verdugo in right. - They could still have made the trade for JBJ but he'd be in his more proper 4th outfielder role. In addition to getting a better bat in Schwarber than Story, they'd be dropping a bunch of JBJ at-bats for a bunch of Arroyo at-bats. - Both IF and OF defense would be a little worse, so the pitching would not look as good. (Red Sox have a team FIP of 3.89 and ERA of 3.67, so figure the ERA would be closer to the FIP; at 3.67 they're 9th in the majors in ERA but at 3.89 they'd be 14th.)
- The team would not have its post-Bogaerts heir apparent at SS, which would mean they'd almost have to make a big FA signing this coming offseason, or else try to get by in piecemeal fashion until Mayer comes up at least.
On balance it's hard for me to say that the team would be better or worse off this season in this scenario. It would really come down to how the two players perform over the next several years, though since Schwarber is signed for 4 years and Story for 6, there's maybe a little less risk with Schwarber.
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Jul 7, 2022 9:35:49 GMT -5
Good analysis. I guess I didn’t realize they dropped $140m on a defensive specialist. I'm supporting your statement and you have to be a prick about it? He's not performing offensively to what we expected right now, 179th in offensive WAR is not what we paid for, from 2018-2020 he was one of the top offensive players in baseball (park adjusted): 115th in 2021 37th in 2020 33rd in 2019 29th in 2018 With that said, his defense is still giving us value and that's why the advanced stats like him right now. They aren't failing the eyeball test, they are calling him out for not being good on offense. And underneath that, he's likely salvaging a below-replacement ability to deliver (i.e. getting contact, not striking out) with his strong power numbers. Who’s being a prick? I don’t understand the need for the name-calling. They signed the 179th best offensive player in baseball this Winter. If you want to pretend to be excited about all the “surplus value” they are getting from that signing, be my guest.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Jul 7, 2022 11:22:34 GMT -5
After watching this series I’ve made my decision that we need to trade for Bell. I actually prefer that over a CL now.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 7, 2022 12:56:14 GMT -5
Things could be worse. We could have resigned ERod for a bajillion dollars and be stuck with the issues the Tigers are having now.
|
|
|
Post by notstarboard on Jul 7, 2022 15:58:13 GMT -5
Story: 98th percentile OAA (his best since 2019), 30th percentile xwOBA (his worst since 2017). Bogie: 41st percentile OAA (his best since 2017), 53rd percentile xwOBA (his worst since 2017). Bogie's offensive numbers are better, but he's been extremely lucky so far. Story's about right on his expected stats. Bogaerts always overperforms his xwOBA though. His wOBA - xwOBA is .027 which based on eyeballing the numbers is basically right at his career average. And it's true that .341 is tied for his worst xwOBA since 2017 but his best is only .363; he's very consistently stayed within a narrow range. He really hasn't been "lucky" at all.
Meanwhile, because offense is down across the league, his wRC+ of 138 is the second highest of his career. And again, he's been very consistent - always in a range of 130 to 141 in every season since 2018.
More subjectively, I'd add that I don't think his lower power numbers this season are predictive. It would be weird to suddenly lose power at age 29 when everything else is going right with his offensive performance. I expect the power to come around.
It's totally fair to make that argument for Bogaerts' career, but not while ignoring the same for Story.
Bogie's career wOBA-xwOBA: .027 Bogie's 2022 wOBA-xwOBA: .029
Story's career wOBA-xwOBA: .021 Story's 2022 wOBA-xwOBA: -.006
So, we're basically back at the same point of Bogaerts being luckier than Story.
---
I don't want Bogie to leave, but it all comes down to cash. I don't think he's remotely worth the ~30-35 million for ~6 years that seems to be the low bound of what I've heard thrown out for him. I'd much rather have Story at 6/140 for ages 29-34 than Bogie for 6/180-210 for ages 30-35. Part of the reason I liked the Story signing so much is that he was cheaper than I expected. I was originally hoping for Baez because people were predicting a deal closer to 4/80.
Maybe people will be wrong and Bogie will sign a 5/140 or something. If not, I hope he loves his time in Anaheim for the 10/300 they'll probably give him lol
|
|
|