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Post by scottysmalls on Jul 19, 2022 10:24:25 GMT -5
To play along with the hypothetical a little bit, what if because the team was indifferent to costs they were able to get a better assortment of players than whoever was actually available to them at the time of their pick, because they raised guys bonus demands.
If you also add to the scenario that the team is wealthy, had a bad season due to injury luck (therefore projected much better in the next two), maybe they also have both a high first round pick and a mid-first rounder from not signing a guy and a couple comp picks, the argument gets a little more compelling. Even then I still think it's pretty unlikely they'd be able to get enough of these guys for it to make sense, but just trying to construct a scenario where it might make sense.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 19, 2022 10:30:17 GMT -5
Right, I'm not saying that I agree with the assumption that the most expensive kid (whose price was set by his dad) is the best kid. That's just the overarching assumption of the premise where one team blows their budget to smithereens. Why would they do that (the assumption goes) if they weren't getting the best prospects money can buy?
But teams obviously put dollar figures on these kids when ranking them (along with estimates of how the rest of the league might value them), so the invisible hand of the market is still there.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2022 10:36:49 GMT -5
Seriously, a no-prize to whoever finds the "blow up the draft" draft board someone did a few years back. I'd love to see what it would look like.
I want to say it was the year they picked Boldt?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2022 11:12:04 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 19, 2022 11:19:49 GMT -5
Sorry to crap over Mason McRae's enthusiasm, but I don't want to hear about a draft pick being in the big leagues in 12 months unless he was drafted first or second overall.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 19, 2022 11:27:57 GMT -5
Sorry to crap over Mason McRae's enthusiasm, but I don't want to hear about a draft pick being in the big leagues in 12 months unless he was drafted first or second overall. Me too. I almost didn't post for that very reason.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 19, 2022 13:33:51 GMT -5
Old friend Jud Fabian was taken 67th by the Orioles. Slot value is about 1mm. Looks like his bet isn't gonna pay off.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 19, 2022 21:04:32 GMT -5
Sorry to crap over Mason McRae's enthusiasm, but I don't want to hear about a draft pick being in the big leagues in 12 months unless he was drafted first or second overall. He's got an 80 grade self-deprecating twitter photo, though...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 19, 2022 21:05:40 GMT -5
Old friend Jud Fabian was taken 67th by the Orioles. Slot value is about 1mm. Looks like his bet isn't gonna pay off. The trombone is sad.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2022 21:10:06 GMT -5
Old friend Jud Fabian was taken 67th by the Orioles. Slot value is about 1mm. Looks like his bet isn't gonna pay off. The trombone is sad. The Orioles have a ton of pool money. Doesn't seem inconceivable that they went to Jud and were like "we really like you and we'll give you what we promised last time at pick 67." That would still depend on no other team taking him, but Fabian would at least have credibility to tell other teams that he wouldn't sign with them if they drafted him above pick 67.
On the other hand, he hit .185 against the SEC this year, and occam's razor says his value just went down this year.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 19, 2022 21:27:47 GMT -5
The Orioles have a ton of pool money. Doesn't seem inconceivable that they went to Jud and were like "we really like you and we'll give you what we promised last time at pick 67." That would still depend on no other team taking him, but Fabian would at least have credibility to tell other teams that he wouldn't sign with them if they drafted him above pick 67.
On the other hand, he hit .185 against the SEC this year, and occam's razor says his value just went down this year.
At best, I would guess the O's told him "we'll give you what the Sox offered you." But I kind of doubt that, even.
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Post by ramireja on Jul 20, 2022 13:16:38 GMT -5
If you're familiar with Mason McRae, there is a similar baseball analytic hobbyist named Tieran Alexander who clearly did a ton of work in compiling some pre-draft reports on a large number of players (I think 500). I want to be really clear before people tear into me....I don't know much about this guy but I'm pretty comfortable guessing he's no baseball scout and I doubt he has any meaningful experience as a former player. He's just a stats guy but an obsessed one at that, apparently with lots of access to TrackMan data. So that said, I'd take any of his rankings, grades, and opinions with giant grains of salt. I'm going to share a number of reports from him though because there's a ton of data included in them that are hard, if not impossible, to find elsewhere. I'm also going to copy and paste this same disclosure as I get to sharing his info on the site over the next few days, weeks... Here's what he had to say about Alex Hoppe who happened to be his favorite underslot, senior sign target for Day 2:
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 20, 2022 14:18:45 GMT -5
If you're familiar with Mason McRae, there is a similar baseball analytic hobbyist named Tieran Alexander who clearly did a ton of work in compiling some pre-draft reports on a large number of players (I think 500). I want to be really clear before people tear into me....I don't know much about this guy but I'm pretty comfortable guessing he's no baseball scout and I doubt he has any meaningful experience as a former player. He's just a stats guy but an obsessed one at that, apparently with lots of access to TrackMan data. So that said, I'd take any of his rankings, grades, and opinions with giant grains of salt. I'm going to share a number of reports from him though because there's a ton of data included in them that are hard, if not impossible, to find elsewhere. I'm also going to copy and paste this same disclosure as I get to sharing his info on the site over the next few days, weeks... Here's what he had to say about Alex Hoppe who happened to be his favorite underslot, senior sign target for Day 2: Not that this is a development path that should ever be expected, but if anyone was to become the Brandon Walter of this class, it sounds like him. Though I guess Walter's development was more about FB velo.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 20, 2022 20:52:02 GMT -5
Interesting. I wonder if there's something about their Trackman being out of whack that has hindered the UNCG coaches from doing more to tap his potential.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2022 9:18:00 GMT -5
How does one get access to Trackman data?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2022 9:25:45 GMT -5
How does one get access to Trackman data? Maybe he works for Trackman?
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Post by ramireja on Jul 21, 2022 19:08:09 GMT -5
Here is my stock Tieran Alexander disclaimer: If you're familiar with Mason McRae, there is a similar baseball analytic hobbyist named Tieran Alexander who clearly did a ton of work in compiling some pre-draft reports on a large number of players (I think 500). I want to be really clear before people tear into me....I don't know much about this guy but I'm pretty comfortable guessing he's no baseball scout and I doubt he has any meaningful experience as a former player. He's just a stats guy but an obsessed one at that, apparently with lots of access to TrackMan data. So that said, I'd take any of his rankings, grades, and opinions with giant grains of salt. I'm going to share a number of reports from him though because there's a ton of data included in them that are hard, if not impossible, to find elsewhere. Here is a writeup on Noah Dean in a piece he wrote highlighting college relievers prior to the draft:
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 21, 2022 23:53:20 GMT -5
Noah D(i)e(km)an?
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Post by keninten on Jul 22, 2022 0:01:10 GMT -5
Stop that I like to be an optimist
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,183
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Post by cdj on Jul 22, 2022 11:51:27 GMT -5
My thoughts reading that lol Wouldn’t be a bad result tbh
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