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7/22-7/24 Red Sox vs. Blue Jays Series Thread
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Post by incandenza on Jul 24, 2022 15:22:08 GMT -5
this is why you trade your top 5 prospects for Soto. Bello might never amount to anything. Casas looks like an Avg major leaguer to me. Yorke is struggling big time. Walter is a 26th round pick with a ceiling of a number 4 starter. Mayer might be special but there’s a .000001 chance he’s as good as Soto. Making that trade also tells the organization that you want to win. We just drafted a few SS so losing Mayer ain’t that big of a deal. When we have Devers X Soto Story 2-6 then other players are going to want to come here and some will take discounts to win. DD wasn’t a bad GM. He was just a horrible drafter imo. The Red Sox should never be in the top 10 in terms of farm system because to me that means we’re not trying to win now. A sure thing is always better then a what if. "Our prospects all stink so let's use them to get Soto."
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Jul 24, 2022 15:23:51 GMT -5
Last report I read said that Nats haven't heard anything close yet from any team that would make them think about a deal. So it's possible he gets moved over the winter. But that might decrease the pool of teams involved in the bidding. There could be current contenders that are perfectly fine giving up good young players for 3 shots at the post-season with Soto - and then dealing or letting him walk before the big contract.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 24, 2022 15:23:54 GMT -5
He's also 23. He's someone you build around. I'm sure the Red Sox will be good again within 10 years. It would be a lot more difficult by emptying the farm. It would make life more difficult giving up Casas,Mayer, Yorke and Blaze (just spitting names). But you are getting a premium young talent and you are getting reinforcements for Eovaldi, Xander, JDM if you're selling.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jul 24, 2022 15:24:58 GMT -5
i like what Alex brings in big game moments, like him as a player, but if this turns into a sell, he is at the top of the list to move (even though I said otherwise recently)
That is assuming other teams recognize he has been unlucky this year and it is a good return.
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Post by manfred on Jul 24, 2022 15:26:16 GMT -5
A) We likely would miss them. B) There is no way that is enough. That is barely OUR best prospects, much less top prospects overall. My guess is if the Sox were to make a competitive offer, it would include Mayer and Casas. Not happening, shouldn’t happen. Why not? You wouldn’t trade 2 what ifs for a top 3 player in baseball? Especially after drafting all these SS that’s a no brainer. All of our top 5 for Soto in a heartbeat. with Duran included. I mean… you trade most of the system for one guy who wants $450 million? After not signing Mookie for $100 million less? Who else would play?? If Soto can do it alone… why do the Nats suck? I’m not against trading prospects, but maybe spread the love? I’d rather have Devers AND X for about as much or a little more money than just Soto.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 24, 2022 15:26:54 GMT -5
this is why you trade your top 5 prospects for Soto. Bello might never amount to anything. Casas looks like an Avg major leaguer to me. Yorke is struggling big time. Walter is a 26th round pick with a ceiling of a number 4 starter. Mayer might be special but there’s a .000001 chance he’s as good as Soto. Making that trade also tells the organization that you want to win. We just drafted a few SS so losing Mayer ain’t that big of a deal. When we have Devers X Soto Story 2-6 then other players are going to want to come here and some will take discounts to win. DD wasn’t a bad GM. He was just a horrible drafter imo. The Red Sox should never be in the top 10 in terms of farm system because to me that means we’re not trying to win now. A sure thing is always better then a what if. "Our prospects all stink so let's use them to get Soto." The only one I'd think twice about moving is Mayer. Honestly IMO not getting Soto here has a whole lot more to do with a 15 year contract than who would have to go.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 24, 2022 15:27:17 GMT -5
It would be a lot more difficult by emptying the farm. It would make life more difficult giving up Casas,Mayer, Yorke and Blaze (just spitting names). But you are getting a premium young talent and you are getting reinforcements for Eovaldi, Xander, JDM if you're selling. Just one more $400 million contract and they can get to where the Angels have been for Mike Trout's career. Look at how awesome the Nationals are now.
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Post by prospectlove on Jul 24, 2022 15:30:53 GMT -5
this is why you trade your top 5 prospects for Soto. Bello might never amount to anything. Casas looks like an Avg major leaguer to me. Yorke is struggling big time. Walter is a 26th round pick with a ceiling of a number 4 starter. Mayer might be special but there’s a .000001 chance he’s as good as Soto. Making that trade also tells the organization that you want to win. We just drafted a few SS so losing Mayer ain’t that big of a deal. When we have Devers X Soto Story 2-6 then other players are going to want to come here and some will take discounts to win. DD wasn’t a bad GM. He was just a horrible drafter imo. The Red Sox should never be in the top 10 in terms of farm system because to me that means we’re not trying to win now. A sure thing is always better then a what if. Imagine if we traded Mookie and Xander for Cliff Lee in 2013 like the reported price at the time. You can't just assume that everyone the Red Sox are willing to trade is going to bust. Because why would the Nationals make the deal then? You are arguing for a smart reaction! I feel this horrible season and potential for losing 3 of their top hitters ( with a pitching staff that’s atrocious), losing money hand over fist due to less interest, and the ownership generally gets reactive. If they don’t believe they can generate corporate funding and ratings for nesn— I’m betting they will have a reactive move to gain those ratings and interest. Will it be a big contract for devers? Will it be a big trade for Soto? Will it be Theo coming back? Will it be Xander? The next 2-3 months could determine a lot for next 5 years of this franchise. I do not believe anymore of the slow build smart build but losing now will be tolerated. Planning will happen for the next year ( and I also don’t think if chaim sticks around those moves will be pretty)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 24, 2022 15:31:14 GMT -5
Blue Jays with a .400 BA today with an xBA of .263.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 24, 2022 15:32:36 GMT -5
Imagine if we traded Mookie and Xander for Cliff Lee in 2013 like the reported price at the time. You can't just assume that everyone the Red Sox are willing to trade is going to bust. Because why would the Nationals make the deal then? You are arguing for a smart reaction! I feel this horrible season and potential for losing 3 of their top hitters ( with a pitching staff that’s atrocious), losing money hand over fist due to less interest, and the ownership generally gets reactive. If they don’t believe they can generate corporate funding and ratings for nesn— I’m betting they will have a reactive move to gain those ratings and interest. Will it be a big contract for devers? Will it be a big trade for Soto? Will it be Theo coming back? Will it be Xander? The next 2-3 months could determine a lot for next 5 years of this franchise. I do not believe anymore of the slow build smart build but losing now will be tolerated. Planning will happen for the next year ( and I also don’t think if chaim sticks around those moves will be pretty) There is no doubt in my mind that they're going to sign Devers at this point. He's also a great hitter and they don't have to give anyone up for him.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 24, 2022 15:33:17 GMT -5
It would make life more difficult giving up Casas,Mayer, Yorke and Blaze (just spitting names). But you are getting a premium young talent and you are getting reinforcements for Eovaldi, Xander, JDM if you're selling. Just one more $400 million contract and they can get to where the Angels have been for Mike Trout's career. Look at how awesome the Nationals are now. I'm sure extending Devers and Xander will put this team over the top too. I think Casas will be Joey Votto. I have hopes for Bello. You realize there's a chance neither guy works out, yes? Then what? This is different than Cliff Lee. Soto is one of the best players in baseball at 23. Mookie also appears to not have been worth his contract either, but he is productive.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 24, 2022 15:35:13 GMT -5
Just one more $400 million contract and they can get to where the Angels have been for Mike Trout's career. Look at how awesome the Nationals are now. I'm sure extending Devers and Xander will put this team over the top too. I think Casas will be Joey Votto. I have hopes for Bello. You realize there's a chance neither guy works out, yes? Then what? This is different than Cliff Lee. Soto is one of the best players in baseball at 23. Mookie also appears to not have been worth his contract either, but he is productive. There's a huge difference between signing Devers and/or Xander and trading all of the prospect depth for Soto and giving him an even bigger contract. When you sign huge contracts, you HAVE to have prospect depth for cheap talent to fill out the roster.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 24, 2022 15:38:30 GMT -5
In the nicest way possible I am glad that 99% of us are not running the team. Myself included.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 24, 2022 15:39:06 GMT -5
Why not? JDM, Vazquez, Eovaldi, Kiké, and Price have combined for 3.0 fWAR for the Red Sox - call it on pace for 5 WAR - and are being paid a combined $72 million. That's not value that's hard to replace; it's opportunities to upgrade.
Xander is a different matter, as he's on pace to be worth like $50 million and is only being paid $20 million. Add him to the others and the whole group is being paid $92 million to produce 11 WAR. If Bloom can get average bang for his buck he should be able to replace all those guys.
That is obviously slightly deceptive, since Eovaldi and Kiké have been hurt. To replace what they would *need* them to be, not what they *are* is potentially $40 million there. I would not be shocked (provided he is healthy) if Eovaldi got $20 mill+ a season as a FA. So you can save by getting a Hill-type, but it is not a real replacement. I’m not saying they won’t field a team. But let’s say they trade X. They need a 1b, 2b, and at least 2 OFers. They trade Eovaldi, they likely need a starter. Sure you can get that. But enough to be good? I don't know what's deceptive about it. If the non-Xander guys I listed end up at 5 WAR for the season, Bloom ought to be able to increase that by like 4 WAR just by getting average return in the free agent market. As for Eovaldi, you're just clearly higher on him than I am. To take your comparison, Rich Hill has a lower ERA than Eovaldi in each season Eovaldi has been in Boston, other than last season when he was 0.11 higher.
The more I think about it, actually, the more I think the key to next season is going to be the young pitching. That's where the potential for surplus value is going to come from: guys like Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski, Crawford, Bello, etc. Roll the dice with them and invest big in position players - that's the gambit for 2023.
The impatience some of you have with prospects that are literally in their first few weeks in the big leagues is unbelievable. I don’t think it is about just a few weeks. It is a) minor league performance; and b) stuff like bat speed. I agree you need patience, but you also need to see *signs* of hope. I still think there is hope for Duran, for example. Well Bello was getting the same treatment elsewhere in the thread... In any case, Downs is a former top-50 prospect, and after being rushed to AAA, he has a 116 wRC+ there this season. Casas, for comparison, is at 107. Personally I'll take Downs' future over Duran's; he adds enough in defense, speed, and positional flexibility that he doesn't have to hit much to be able to stick as at least a utility guy, whereas Duran has to crush the ball to make up for his abysmal defense. Serious question: when Dalbec is driving to the stadium, do you think he’s thinking, “well, off to flail helplessly”? I mean… what goes on in his head this season? If there remains any chance he can play, how is this good for him? Maybe he thinks, "I'm disappointed in the season, but I have a 104 wRC+ since May 1st and since June 1st, and 111 in July. I'm encouraged for my ability to hang in there and slowly improve, and I know I have it in me to be an above average major leaguer. Still only 800 PAs into my career."
(Just consolidating all my disagreements with you into one comment.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jul 24, 2022 15:44:26 GMT -5
I'm sure extending Devers and Xander will put this team over the top too. I think Casas will be Joey Votto. I have hopes for Bello. You realize there's a chance neither guy works out, yes? Then what? This is different than Cliff Lee. Soto is one of the best players in baseball at 23. Mookie also appears to not have been worth his contract either, but he is productive. There's a huge difference between signing Devers and/or Xander and trading all of the prospect depth for Soto and giving him an even bigger contract. When you sign huge contracts, you HAVE to have prospect depth for cheap talent to fill out the roster. I think they can afford Devers and Soto, but the point is, if the top prospects like Casas and Bello don't work out you're just in as much trouble and you're going to be reloading by trading Xander and others. I do agree sustained success requires a strong pipeline, but given Soto's age, you can afford to take a step back. But I'm a huge Casas fan so I'm more than happy keeping him.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 24, 2022 15:50:33 GMT -5
I'm sure extending Devers and Xander will put this team over the top too. I think Casas will be Joey Votto. I have hopes for Bello. You realize there's a chance neither guy works out, yes? Then what? This is different than Cliff Lee. Soto is one of the best players in baseball at 23. Mookie also appears to not have been worth his contract either, but he is productive. There's a huge difference between signing Devers and/or Xander and trading all of the prospect depth for Soto and giving him an even bigger contract. When you sign huge contracts, you HAVE to have prospect depth for cheap talent to fill out the roster. Please remember this comment so for the next 10 years i can remind you of how crazy you sound. Devers and Soto for 10 years? Mookie was 27 when he wanted 400 mill Soto is 23. Devers-Soto for the next 10 years sounds like we can figure out the rest.
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Post by manfred on Jul 24, 2022 15:54:06 GMT -5
There's a huge difference between signing Devers and/or Xander and trading all of the prospect depth for Soto and giving him an even bigger contract. When you sign huge contracts, you HAVE to have prospect depth for cheap talent to fill out the roster. Please remember this comment so for the next 10 years i can remind you of how crazy you sound. Devers and Soto for 10 years? Mookie was 27 when he wanted 400 mill Soto is 23. Devers-Soto for the next 10 years sounds like we can figure out the rest. [not $400 million]
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 24, 2022 15:54:28 GMT -5
There's a huge difference between signing Devers and/or Xander and trading all of the prospect depth for Soto and giving him an even bigger contract. When you sign huge contracts, you HAVE to have prospect depth for cheap talent to fill out the roster. Please remember this comment so for the next 10 years i can remind you of how crazy you sound. Devers and Soto for 10 years? Mookie was 27 when he wanted 400 mill Soto is 23. Devers-Soto for the next 10 years sounds like we can figure out the rest. Soto already turned down $440M, so it's a lot more than that. Also, you cannot instantly rebuild a farm system. Would take at least 5 years, with a lot of holes on the team to fill due to a lack of prospects. If it's such a simple easy decision, why are the Nationals the worst team in baseball and why aren't they handing him a blank check? Sorry to say, they didn't move from Dombrowski to Bloom so that they can make more Soto (Sale) trades.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Jul 24, 2022 15:55:09 GMT -5
There is still a game going on. It just plain sad, though.
So...we started slow. Climbed into decent shape, comfortably above .500, playing the dregs. Today's loss takes us back to .500. Pretty tough schedule ahead. I can't see them reversing course again, even when some injured bodies return. What happens between now and the trading deadline will reveal lots.
But there's little fun watching them right now
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Post by manfred on Jul 24, 2022 16:02:56 GMT -5
Ok… here’s what frustrates me. The past 3ish years we’ve been “building,” or whatever. Now we are talking about trading X and maybe Devers. It is almost certain JDM is gone. Eovaldi. Maybe CVaz.
You take that out, and what have they done in the last 3 years to fill those positions? Verdugo? Franchy? Downs?
People talk about the team moving in the right direction… how? If they sell, they have Casas and then a multiyear wait for Mayer.
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Post by billw on Jul 24, 2022 16:05:51 GMT -5
I do not understand the concept of trading your top prospects for a guy you have to pay top free agent money to--if you have that money to spend just spend on free agents in the off season and hope a few of your prospects work out for 6 years of cheap money, IT DOES APPEAR THE DODGERS DID NOT TRADE ANY TOP PROSPECTS FOR MOOKIE
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 24, 2022 16:07:41 GMT -5
Please remember this comment so for the next 10 years i can remind you of how crazy you sound. Devers and Soto for 10 years? Mookie was 27 when he wanted 400 mill Soto is 23. Devers-Soto for the next 10 years sounds like we can figure out the rest. Soto already turned down $440M, so it's a lot more than that. Also, you cannot instantly rebuild a farm system. Would take at least 5 years, with a lot of holes on the team to fill due to a lack of prospects. If it's such a simple easy decision, why are the Nationals the worst team in baseball and why aren't they handing him a blank check? Sorry to say, they didn't move from Dombrowski to Bloom so that they can make more Soto (Sale) trades. 440 for 15 years because he wants to win. That’s also 29 per year which would be a discount for him because he’s a top 3 player in baseball! We’re paying price 16 million and JD 22. you’re telling me we can pay him 34 a year basically replacing there contracts with a little savings for 12 years lock it up and trade our top 5 prospects and we would not be better!? I think $65-68 million for Devers-Soto a year is 100000% worth it. Those are the type of guys you go all in for because they will change the whole franchise. Who wouldn’t want to come here with them here and Please don’t compare the nationals to the red sox please.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 24, 2022 16:15:29 GMT -5
Ok… here’s what frustrates me. The past 3ish years we’ve been “building,” or whatever. Now we are talking about trading X and maybe Devers. It is almost certain JDM is gone. Eovaldi. Maybe CVaz. You take that out, and what have they done in the last 3 years to fill those positions? Verdugo? Franchy? Downs? People talk about the team moving in the right direction… how? If they sell, they have Casas and then a multiyear wait for Mayer. manfred, what can ever convince you that this is exactly the reason Bloom is so focused on prospect depth? There is no other way to build a strong organization. In the alternative scenario where they don't add a bunch of prospects, Xander is still opting out and Devers is still coming up on free agency. They're over the CBT this season so it's not like Bloom has been trying to get by on scotch tape and hope. What other approach to "building or whatever" do you want him to take?
Anyway, like I said above, the young pitching is the replacement for the eminently replaceable guys you keep harping on (JDM, Eovaldi). Vazquez is probably staying on, I think, and without requiring a raise, but if he doesn't there's a strong class of FA catchers, including Wilson Contreras.
Bogaerts is going to be hard to replace. If you just said that you'd be making perfect sense. Nothing else about the players they may lose to free agency says that this team is doomed next season.
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Post by manfred on Jul 24, 2022 16:21:14 GMT -5
Ok… here’s what frustrates me. The past 3ish years we’ve been “building,” or whatever. Now we are talking about trading X and maybe Devers. It is almost certain JDM is gone. Eovaldi. Maybe CVaz. You take that out, and what have they done in the last 3 years to fill those positions? Verdugo? Franchy? Downs? People talk about the team moving in the right direction… how? If they sell, they have Casas and then a multiyear wait for Mayer. manfred, what can ever convince you that this is exactly the reason Bloom is so focused on prospect depth? There is no other way to build a strong organization. In the alternative scenario where they don't add a bunch of prospects, Xander is still opting out and Devers is still coming up on free agency. They're over the CBT this season so it's not like Bloom has been trying to get by on scotch tape and hope. What other approach to "building or whatever" do you want him to take?
Anyway, like I said above, the young pitching is the replacement for the eminently replaceable guys you keep harping on (JDM, Eovaldi). Vazquez is probably staying on, I think, and without requiring a raise, but if he doesn't there's a strong class of FA catchers, including Wilson Contreras.
Bogaerts is going to be hard to replace. If you just said that you'd be making perfect sense. Nothing else about the players they may lose to free agency says that this team is doomed next season.
The young pitching is exciting… as back end guys. I like Crawford, Bello, Winck to a degree… but they are not a staff that will be a “win with pitching” staff. He has sought depth. But when he traded his two biggest trade pieces… not a lot of return. Mayer was the reward for sucking (maybe by year’s end he’ll have worked out another great pick!). I just don’t see how this team is in a better position now that it was 3 years ago. They’ll have a lot of money. So we’ll see. But this feels like pretty dark time.
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jul 24, 2022 16:25:56 GMT -5
Soto already turned down $440M, so it's a lot more than that. Also, you cannot instantly rebuild a farm system. Would take at least 5 years, with a lot of holes on the team to fill due to a lack of prospects. If it's such a simple easy decision, why are the Nationals the worst team in baseball and why aren't they handing him a blank check? Sorry to say, they didn't move from Dombrowski to Bloom so that they can make more Soto (Sale) trades. 440 for 15 years because he wants to win. That’s also 29 per year which would be a discount for him because he’s a top 3 player in baseball! We’re paying price 16 million and JD 22. you’re telling me we can pay him 34 a year basically replacing there contracts with a little savings for 12 years lock it up and trade our top 5 prospects and we would not be better!? I think $65-68 million for Devers-Soto a year is 100000% worth it. Those are the type of guys you go all in for because they will change the whole franchise. Who wouldn’t want to come here with them here and Please don’t compare the nationals to the red sox please.
this is what was said about Sale by Dombrowski..You make that happen.if its Chris Sale and how did that workout? Bloom was brought on to specifically build up the farm system..Not to build it for a coule of seasons to tear it down. another aspect of these big salaries...With the comfort level of the big money these players don't seem to perform like they did when they were competing for the big contract. they have the money and the competitive nature slows down some.
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