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Is Chaim Bloom good at his job?
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Post by incandenza on Jul 30, 2022 12:35:59 GMT -5
This question seems to be eating up every thread on the board, so I thought I'd post this as a flypaper kind of thing for people to get it out of their systems.
Now then: here is the definitive rundown of everything Bloom has done well and poorly.
The Betts Trade It's unfortunate that Betts didn't want to take a hometown discount to stay in Boston, though he's certainly not to blame for that. And it's unfortunate that Dombrowski consumed all of the team's financial flexibility in his deals for Price, Sale, Eovaldi, and others. The combination of these two facts made this trade inevitable. As for the return in the trade, Verdugo has been a cheap and league-average complementary piece. I had hopes he'd level up to about a 4 WAR player but he seems to be settling in at more like 2 WAR. Downs was regarded at the time as a surefire future starter at 2B, but questions have emerged about his bat. He's still young and this piecce of the deal is still TBD, but if the bat does come around, with his speed and defense he could be another really nice addition to the team. I still think it was the right move to take him over Graaterol.
The Benintendi Trade Benintendi was eminently expendable. Indeed, he was immediately replaced by a comparable and cheaper talent in Renfroe. Unfortunately, Franchy detracts value from the deal since he's been worth -0.8 fWAR since coming here. Winckowski looks like the real source of value from this, and just having him as pitching depth makes this trade a win. Luis de la Rosa or even Gambrell may yet come through, as a bonus.
The Renfroe Trade The idea here was sound; the follow-through was lacking. Renfroe, like Benintendi before him, was very expendable. An absolute steal at $3 million in 2021, he's merely a decent bargain at $7.5 million in 2022. Taking on JBJ's bigger salary in order to buy prospects is creative and consistent with Bloom's philosophy, and just the sort of thing that a smart and rich organization does. Furthermore, I think there are reasons to think the organization's evaluation of JBJ and Renfroe's respective value is closer than, e.g., public WAR numbers might suggest (Red Sox value defense a lot in RF; Renfroe stinks in the clutch). But if you're going to use that money to buy prospects you also need to address the gaping offensive hole in the outfield that JBJ represents. I actually think this could have worked out okay as a JBJ/Refsnyder platoon if Kiké had been healthy, but as things turned out there just wasn't enough outfield depth to make it work (you can never count on everyone being healthy). Using Arroyo in RF was, frankly, idiotic.
Maxing Out Value from the Lost Covid Season It's frankly just dumb to blame Bloom for the team's 2020 performance, for reasons that don't need to be re-litigated. But he did a phenomenal job of turning those lemons into lemonade. First, they got Mayer. People say he "fell into their lap," which has some truth to it, but still, he managed to get past three other teams. At the very least they managed not to screw this up, and there's something to be said for that. (How would we all feel as Tigers fans, watching our team pass on Mayer to select a high school pitcher?) More substantially, the Pivetta/Seabold acquisition has already proven to be a huge win. And the biggest win of all has been getting Whitlock in the Rule 5 draft.
How about 2021? Despite being a team in transition and still stuck with an inflexible payroll and a lot of dead money (Pedroia, Price, Sale) they made it all the way to the ALCS, knocking out the Yankees and Rays in the process. It's about as successful as a non-championship season can be. Several savvy acquisitions contributed to their run, including Kiké and Renfroe, and getting Schwarber in what was the biggest steal of the trade deadline.
And the 2022 Debacle? It's the injuries. Almost no team can survive lose 4/5ths of their starting rotation, including their ace who is out for essentially the entire season. Now the position players have joined them as well - Kiké, Arroyo, Devers, Story. It's just the sort of thing that happens once a decade or so.
But of course that doesn't mean everything Bloom did hass been perfect. By far the biggest failure was the outfield construction. I talked about that above.
What about 1B, you say? Well, if we start from the premise that they weren't going to spend any more than they did, it was an absolute no-brainer to go with Dalbec as the primary first baseman considering a) his second half last season, b) the cost of any potential replacement that would have projected to be better than him, a group that included precisely two guys, Freeman and Rizzo, and c) the reasonable likelihood that Casas would be ready by mid-season or so. The bigger failure was Shaw, but again, it's not like there was a huge pile of cheap above-average backup first basemen out there (but kudos to you if you were talking about how they needed to sign Dan Vogelbach before the season started).
And the bullpen? It's been mostly fine. People lose their minds if a team loses a game in the 9th inning (as opposed to the 5th or 6th inning) which leads to a masssively overinflated valuation of closers, and that in turn makes people think they ought to spend like $15 million on a Proven Closer like Kimbrel (4.37 ERA) or Jansen (3.52 ERA) or Haderr (4.24 ERA) or whoever else it is that puts up amazing numbers over like 100 IP. I am against this line of thinking. In fact Bloom's biggest mistake so far has been giving big money to Barnes. You should really just almost never do that. The next great reliever is as likely as not to be a guy like Schreiber.
Other additions: Story is the big one, and by far Bloom's biggest free agent signing so far. The defense has been spectacular, the bat not so much, but so far he's on pace to be worth his contract. I'm hopeful that his second year away from Coors will see the offense improve. Wacha has been a nice pickup. Hill has done what he's supposed to. Paxton is TBD.
The Farm System The team has done from a bottom-10 to a top-10 system in just a couple years, and ranks even higher in terms of depth (per fangraphs, they have the third-most ranked prospects in the game). To judge Bloom by his own stated objectives, this is an unadulterated win.
Overall, my conclusion is: Bloom is good at his job. But the judgment is necessarily incomplete. Ways he might still fail include: 1) his big money free agent signings not working out; 2) roster construction proving to be a perennial issue rather than the one-off issue they've had in RF this year; 3) if none of the prospects he's gone out of his way to acquire pan out we might question the evaluation of minor league talent; 4) if both Bogaerts and Devers walk it will be a giant bummer. But these are all hypothetical. I like his philosophical approach to building the organization, I think he's mostly followed through on it well with just a few dubious moves, and I'm looking forward to what he does this offseason when he finally - finally - can take charge of the bulk of this team's payroll.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 30, 2022 13:07:56 GMT -5
I think Bloom is elite with Player Development. I don't think he's particularly good at managing a major league roster.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 30, 2022 13:10:05 GMT -5
One very short point - I don't think it's right to fault or to credit Bloom for 2020.
They entered the year with a plan to string together 1 of the 5 rotation spots, opting to clear half of Price's money as part of the Betts deal. Fair to question the wisdom there, for sure, but they were for some reason all in on Weber, perhaps with an opener.
From there, they proceeded to lose Sale to TJ and ERod to myocarditis from COVID (plus Darwinzon and Taylor to start the year, who we all expected to be like, two of their top 4 relievers, which seems silly in hindsight). At that point, having 2/5ths of a legit rotation and faced with a weird, 60-game season during a pandemic that wasn't even certain to be completed, not spending resources to try to compete was a no-brainer. What was he going to do, trade for three starters?
Like I said, it was common sense not to go for it at that point, but let's not act either like the plan was "ok, we're going to tank the 2020 season to get a great draft pick." It most certainly was not. Fate made that plan and they correctly didn't fight against it.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 30, 2022 13:43:47 GMT -5
Thank you for trying to concentrate this discussion in this thread. I hope it works.
I will say that I am happy that he's in charge and look forward to seeing what he does between now and Tuesday and between then and March.
I agree with Chris on 2020; to me, 2021 may have been my most enjoyable non-championship season, and in 2022 I think Chaim got a little too cute with RF and the bullpen (I think most people thought 1B would be fine with Dalbec/Casas) and injuries compounded those two shortcomings. To be fair, there were a lot more options available to shore up the bullpen in the offseason than RF or 1B. Here's hoping he learns from those experiences; I'm pretty confident he will.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 30, 2022 15:16:43 GMT -5
Is he good at his job? I would say that it is incomplete. One problem I have is Chaim can do no wrong people. His best trade was getting Pivetta. Betts trade I didn't love but he got something for someone they were not going to pay. Crying about the money spent on front line pitchers comes down to not being able to develop a top of the rotation guy since Lester. As far as the Benny trade that remains to be seen he would have been better for us than what we had last year. It remains to be seen if what KC got back for Benny for a half year rental comes out better than what Boston got. Renfroe trade is a loser so far and I love JBJ's defense since SC. He could have had JBJ by offering a bag of chips and just picking up his salary. Boston could have used Renfroe's bat. Maybe one or both of the guys he got develops and turns it into a winner but from reading the right ups on them at this time it doesn't look like it. 2021 snuck into the play in game on the last day the Kyle pick up at the trade deadline made that possible. 2022 is his team and it is what it is. Outfield has been bad the bullpen has blown a ton of games and injuries have hurt. The minor leagues have more depth. It remains to be seen if that means Major League success for any of them or if Chaim can use them to acquire Major League talent. I would think you would have to give him a couple of more years to see what comes of it. But to me it comes down to wins and losses on the field in the majors not hypothetical wins and losses or who has the best farm system. I have seen to many cannot miss prospects miss.
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cdj
Veteran
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2022 15:52:55 GMT -5
God Bless you sir
My answer is TBD but I like the process thus far
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Post by philip on Jul 30, 2022 16:10:29 GMT -5
Not doing a good job . Feel too many decisions are financially based and not based on winning games. Did we really need those prospects for renfro. Are they that amazing that you gave away your right fielder and never replaced him. Why are we even talking about losing boagarts and devers. First base should have been addressed 2 months ago when casas got hurt. Any good gm would of been sick watching franchy butcher the position. Feel like he wants to get rid of any player who is good. Overall he looks for replacements for expensive players than trying to improve the overall team.
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Post by bellhorndingers21 on Jul 30, 2022 16:17:31 GMT -5
Honest question for the folks faulting Bloom for not spending, why? Do you think he willingly goes to ownership and requests to spend less? Do you think he would be permitted to spend $275 million plus if he wanted? He's not perfect by any means but I can not understand this argument.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2022 16:18:13 GMT -5
His worst move to me is the Barnes extension. I understand the thought process behind literally every other move but not that one. We saw his spin rates fall after the sticky stuff ban, can’t be giving out a 2 year deal right after that without seeing a legitimate sample of results
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 30, 2022 16:19:15 GMT -5
His worst move to me is the Barnes extension. I understand the thought process behind literally every other move but not that one. My memory is that everyone was throwing flowers at Chaim that day |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 30, 2022 16:19:37 GMT -5
So, (and not just directed to anyone posting here or in another thread) I see on the Forum and especially on Twitter that Bloom isn't spending enough money or is cheap. For those who would go down that road:
1) If we're solely talking payroll, what reason is there to think that is a Bloom decision and not an ownership decision? Do we really think JWH is like "let's have the highest payroll in baseball" and Bloom is like "well hold on now..."
2) They have a top 5 (or about that) payroll in baseball (per Cot's, 4th-highest CBT payroll) - what is an acceptable amount of money to spend if that's not enough? Do they need to basically ignore all but the last CBT level like the Dodgers and Mets?
3) What reasons might he have for those financial decisions, if we assume that's why they're made? (CB tax, inferior pick compensation for losing free agents, worse pick penalties for signing FAs, etc.)
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2022 16:20:25 GMT -5
His worst move to me is the Barnes extension. I understand the thought process behind literally every other move but not that one. My memory is that everyone was throwing flowers at Chaim that day Yeah my complaint is probably an exercise in hindsight but you can definitely look back at it and wonder why it happened given the warning signs |
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Post by prospectlove on Jul 30, 2022 16:22:26 GMT -5
Is he good at his job? We shall find out by this time next year! Let’s hope so
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Post by philip on Jul 30, 2022 16:32:34 GMT -5
They may have a high payroll but it is deceiving because of so many expiring contracts and price 15 mill coming off the books. Even sale just under contract 2 more years and they won’t be renewing that either. So outlook very good financially. Most of the pitchers next year under rookie contracts.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 30, 2022 16:33:52 GMT -5
He has done his job so far. 2 wins away from a WS. Also shed a ton of salary and improved our farm system big time. We have so many injuries right now its not easy to judge him right now. This offseason will be the real beginning of him having money to spend. At that point we can start to figure out more. As of now the answer is yes. Painfully did what had to be done.
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Post by manfred on Jul 30, 2022 16:36:56 GMT -5
When Zhou En Lai was asked his thoughts on the French Revolution in 1972, he said “too early to tell.” I feel like decades from now, on my death bed, I will croak, “I really wanted to to know how Bloom did…”
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Post by keninten on Jul 30, 2022 16:42:55 GMT -5
What has driven me nuts is before the season starts they spend up to the CBT. I`ve always wished they would leave some room for the deadline. So you could add a Scherzer and Turner without going over.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 30, 2022 16:48:36 GMT -5
Not doing a good job . Feel too many decisions are financially based and not based on winning games. Did we really need those prospects for renfro. Are they that amazing that you gave away your right fielder and never replaced him. Why are we even talking about losing boagarts and devers. First base should have been addressed 2 months ago when casas got hurt. Any good gm would of been sick watching franchy butcher the position. Feel like he wants to get rid of any player who is good. Overall he looks for replacements for expensive players than trying to improve the overall team. They may have a high payroll but it is deceiving because of so many expiring contracts and price 15 mill coming off the books. Even sale just under contract 2 more years and they won’t be renewing that either. So outlook very good financially. Most of the pitchers next year under rookie contracts. It sounds like you're disappointed with him being fiscally prudent but then acknowledge that he's handcuffed by the expiring contracts. He hasn't gotten a chance to show us what he can do with the big-name contracts. All but Story were inherited. This area is still incomplete for me. Xander and Devers haven't left yet. Signing Xander seems to be mixed at best on this board, and it mostly depends how how long the open market will be willing to go on years. Devers is too soon to sign given his demands, there's no incentive right now to signing him given what he's demanding. Renfroe wasn't going to make or break this team and it's not like he's tearing it up with the Brewers. If we're going to hindsight punish him, I'd much rather folks complain about not picking up Perez's 6M option rather than trading Renfroe. |
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 30, 2022 16:49:28 GMT -5
Also here are the prospects that Bloom has acquired to date:
2020
Alex Verdugo
Jeter Downs
Connor Wong
Jacob Wallace
Hudson Potts
Jettison Rosario
Nick Pavetta
Connor Seabold
Christian Koss
Johnny Pereda
2021
Victor Santos
Freddy Valdez
Franchy Codero
Grant Gambrell
Luis De La Rosa
Josh Winckowski
Zach Bryant
Ronaldo Hernandez
Nick Sogard
Frank German
Alex Binelas
David Hamilton
I think the emergence of the sox farm system has been more due to player development than talent brought in via trade.
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Post by foreverred9 on Jul 30, 2022 16:58:18 GMT -5
Bloom went on the record early on that they needed to build up depth in the system. Many of these prospects acquired were focused on that, and in fact most of the taxi squad to deal with the injuries this year is coming from list. How is that a negative for Bloom?
Yes, the high ceiling, top of the rankings prospects are coming from player dev. But the MLB-ready players are coming from this list.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,092
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Post by cdj on Jul 30, 2022 17:01:58 GMT -5
Also here are the prospects that Bloom has acquired to date: 2020 Alex Verdugo Jeter Downs Connor Wong Jacob Wallace Hudson Potts Jettison Rosario Nick Pavetta Connor Seabold Christian Koss Johnny Pereda 2021 Victor Santos Freddy Valdez Franchy Codero Grant Gambrell Luis De La Rosa Josh Winckowski Zach Bryant Ronaldo Hernandez Nick Sogard Frank German Alex Binelas David Hamilton I think the emergence of the sox farm system has been more due to player development than talent brought in via trade. Whitlock |
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Post by philip on Jul 30, 2022 17:02:01 GMT -5
I can’t fault him for Perez because no one saw that coming. Not keeping Renfro and schwarber were mistakes that I think were financially driven . I think the owners give him a lot of latitude like they have in the past but then judge the gm decisions later. With the expiring contracts he could be gone heavy this year and fell beneath the cap next year. Actually I’m ok with Jbj but not as a right field replacement. He knew that too but he wanted those prospects. I think his plan b for devers is binelas in 2 years. Replacements not improvements. The Tampa way.
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Post by manfred on Jul 30, 2022 17:03:01 GMT -5
Also here are the prospects that Bloom has acquired to date: 2020 Alex Verdugo Jeter Downs Connor Wong Jacob Wallace Hudson Potts Jettison Rosario Nick Pavetta Connor Seabold Christian Koss Johnny Pereda 2021 Victor Santos Freddy Valdez Franchy Codero Grant Gambrell Luis De La Rosa Josh Winckowski Zach Bryant Ronaldo Hernandez Nick Sogard Frank German Alex Binelas David Hamilton I think the emergence of the sox farm system has been more due to player development than talent brought in via trade. I don’t think Verdugo or Pivetta count as prospects. They were already major leaguers. This is a long list. But is it a good list? We don’t know that yet, but I mean, whatever one thinks of Bloom, his resume is not going to be built on the likes of Grant Gambrell or many of these guys. Just showing a long list is not especially meaningful. |
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Post by notnickyorke on Jul 30, 2022 17:45:17 GMT -5
While I think Chaim deserves criticism for not adequately addressing the outfield and firstbase the past 2 offseasons, I'm not on board for blaming him for this seasons struggles. There have been too many freak injuries to important players. Its hard to win when you lose
#1 starter (sale) esentially for the season
#2 Starter (eovaldi) for 5 starts
#3 Starter (Whitlock) injured, then bullpen
#4 starter (Wacha) for 7 starts and counting
#5 starter (Hill) for 5 starts and counting
Starting CF (E. Hernandez) 50 games so far
Starting 2B (Story) for 20 games so far
Starting 3B Devers for 10 games so far
Top bench piece coming into season (Arroyo) for most of the season so far
Not to mention losing/suffering Barnes, Taylor, and Robles who came into the season as fairly consistent bullpen pieces.
The fact the Red Sox are still at/around 500 is pretty impressive.
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Post by dirtdog on Jul 30, 2022 18:23:55 GMT -5
I am going to give him 5 years. I think when Henry hired him Bloom probably told him it would take that long to clean up certain messes and have the organization heading on a sustainable trajectory.
So far he has been hit and miss. His propensity for the bargain bin and reclamation projects has had mixed results. Last year looks like an over achievement while this year a regression to the mean. I think it is too early to judge. Oh and we don't know what Henry considers doing a good job and that is all that really matters.
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