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Is Chaim Bloom good at his job?
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 11:20:57 GMT -5
To me, this post nails it. I consider myself to be in the sensible center when it comes to Bloom. I was indifferent to 2020, loved how he put the 2021 team together, and am baffled and frustrated by his 2022 roster construction and deadline decisions. As an inhabitant of the sensible center, I'm in a good position to judge the arguments for and against Bloom. It's clear to me that the Never Bloomers have trouble giving the guy credit for anything. Someone on here once claimed that 2021 was a crap year because we didn't win the division. How can a reasonable person possibly take that seriously? The Sensible Centrists sometimes level harsh criticism (like I did in the first paragraph of this post), but appreciate Bloom's successes and are willing to give his approach more time to work, while also acknowledging reasons for concern. The Sensible Centrists don't see every argument as Bloom vs. D-Dom. Being sensible means respecting D-Dom for realizing that he inherited a tremendous young core and aggressively bringing in veteran stars to complement that core and bring us a WS championship. His talents enabled us to experience the joy of seeing the greatest team in franchise history. The irony for me is when the Never Bloomers get frustrated with the Sensible Centrists and accuse them of having no objectivity. It's quite the other way around. Its interesting how tribalism is a big thing when talking about GMs. Its either Bloom is infallible or Bloom doesn't know what he's doing there's no in between. When in reality everyone has moves that work and don't work. His bigger moves when trading existing established talent haven't worked out but when he trading to bring in established talent they work fine. Maybe we'll get a book 10 years from now explaining on how they sold low on players and why that really happened. Maybe someone comes out with a book that will break down 2022 with the answers to questions such as why they didn't get another outfielder after acquiring JBJ and why they had zero plan at 1st base if Dalbec regressed. Who knows. Bloom made bad moves in 2020 even though it was a COVID year, made great moves in 2021, and was horrific this year other than signing Wacha and trading for Pham 4 months after they could have signed him for peanuts. Can you point us to the specific comments where people have said Bloom is infallible? I think I missed all of those.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 8, 2022 11:44:30 GMT -5
Its interesting how tribalism is a big thing when talking about GMs. Its either Bloom is infallible or Bloom doesn't know what he's doing there's no in between. When in reality everyone has moves that work and don't work. His bigger moves when trading existing established talent haven't worked out but when he trading to bring in established talent they work fine. Maybe we'll get a book 10 years from now explaining on how they sold low on players and why that really happened. Maybe someone comes out with a book that will break down 2022 with the answers to questions such as why they didn't get another outfielder after acquiring JBJ and why they had zero plan at 1st base if Dalbec regressed. Who knows. Bloom made bad moves in 2020 even though it was a COVID year, made great moves in 2021, and was horrific this year other than signing Wacha and trading for Pham 4 months after they could have signed him for peanuts. Can you point us to the specific comments where people have said Bloom is infallible? I think I missed all of those. I don't think I've seen you criticize one move of his. Even when its clear as day. You already know the set of posters who will like or hate any move he makes. Thats the trend on here. You'll sit back and ask me to cite 53 pages of comments to say where does anyone say Bloom is infallible, but yet we can also go through all of the pages where you have posters literally defending how good the Betts and Benintendi trades were for the Sox because of X Y and Z or hate the trade because of X Y Z. Some of his moves have been good. The bigger moves have been a disaster. Its okay to acknowledge this and move on without say burying the previous GM. Not for nothing the guy did bring a title to Boston and I believe only "lost" one trade while he was here. So if you want specific comments just re read posts in this thread. He failed in 2020 with his big moves. 2021 was a major win with almost all of his moves. 2022 has been a disaster. 2 out of the 3 years have been lackluster with the 1 year that was good was really good.
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Post by grandsalami on Sept 8, 2022 11:55:24 GMT -5
Can you point us to the specific comments where people have said Bloom is infallible? I think I missed all of those. I don't think I've seen you criticize one move of his. Even when its clear as day. You already know the set of posters who will like or hate any move he makes. Thats the trend on here. You'll sit back and ask me to cite 53 pages of comments to say where does anyone say Bloom is infallible, but yet we can also go through all of the pages where you have posters literally defending how good the Betts and Benintendi trades were for the Sox because of X Y and Z or hate the trade because of X Y Z. Some of his moves have been good. The bigger moves have been a disaster. Its okay to acknowledge this and move on without say burying the previous GM. Not for nothing the guy did bring a title to Boston and I believe only "lost" one trade while he was here. So if you want specific comments just re read posts in this thread. He failed in 2020 with his big moves. 2021 was a major win with almost all of his moves. 2022 has been a disaster. 2 out of the 3 years have been lackluster with the 1 year that was good was really good. 2020 is a throwaway, its a season that should not have happened, IMO there should have been no sports that year
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 8, 2022 12:09:04 GMT -5
Something that's never discussed. What do we think Dombrowski would've done in 2020? I fear he panic trades a guy like Casas for a middling starting pitcher after Sale goes down, and Price deciding to sit out. So you've got Betts still, you miss the playoffs, and you finish with a middle of the 1st rd pick in the draft. Then Betts walks for nothing, he probably doesn't take Yorke, and you've got no Mayer or Casas in my hypothetical.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 8, 2022 12:11:00 GMT -5
Can you point us to the specific comments where people have said Bloom is infallible? I think I missed all of those. I don't think I've seen you criticize one move of his. Even when its clear as day. You already know the set of posters who will like or hate any move he makes. Thats the trend on here. You'll sit back and ask me to cite 53 pages of comments to say where does anyone say Bloom is infallible, but yet we can also go through all of the pages where you have posters literally defending how good the Betts and Benintendi trades were for the Sox because of X Y and Z or hate the trade because of X Y Z. Some of his moves have been good. The bigger moves have been a disaster. Its okay to acknowledge this and move on without say burying the previous GM. Not for nothing the guy did bring a title to Boston and I believe only "lost" one trade while he was here. So if you want specific comments just re read posts in this thread. He failed in 2020 with his big moves. 2021 was a major win with almost all of his moves. 2022 has been a disaster. 2 out of the 3 years have been lackluster with the 1 year that was good was really good. 2020 was a season that was almost designed to be a failure so to speak. They obviously must have known they would have a bad team after they dealt Mookie. The only goal for 2020 was to get under the luxury tax. 2021 was a solid season and 2022 has been a down year. Personally I'd give him a 1 out of 2 since I'm basically just throwing out 2020. I am a little leery of what he is going to do this offseason, but we really don't have much of a gauge since it's the first year he's had actual flexibility to construct the roster in a manner he sees fit. I will remain basically split right down the middle on Bloom until we see the product next year. A good team and I'll be a pro-Bloomer, a bad team and I'll be saying get him outta here.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 8, 2022 12:17:13 GMT -5
I don't think I've seen you criticize one move of his. Even when its clear as day. You already know the set of posters who will like or hate any move he makes. Thats the trend on here. You'll sit back and ask me to cite 53 pages of comments to say where does anyone say Bloom is infallible, but yet we can also go through all of the pages where you have posters literally defending how good the Betts and Benintendi trades were for the Sox because of X Y and Z or hate the trade because of X Y Z. Some of his moves have been good. The bigger moves have been a disaster. Its okay to acknowledge this and move on without say burying the previous GM. Not for nothing the guy did bring a title to Boston and I believe only "lost" one trade while he was here. So if you want specific comments just re read posts in this thread. He failed in 2020 with his big moves. 2021 was a major win with almost all of his moves. 2022 has been a disaster. 2 out of the 3 years have been lackluster with the 1 year that was good was really good. 2020 is a throwaway, its a season that should not have happened, IMO there should have been no sports that year Not going to disagree with the overall point there. But the year happened and if you're going to count the Dodgers title as legitimate you have to include why they won. They don't win without Mookie. You still have to try to field a semi competitive team. Granted because 2020 did happen they now have Mayer so now you're looking at this from the perspective of all that this GM has going for him right now is this minor league system that he might not be here to enjoy in 3-4 years when we finally see full scale results if this succeeds.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Sept 8, 2022 12:23:17 GMT -5
Something that's never discussed. What do we think Dombrowski would've done in 2020? I fear he panic trades a guy like Casas for a middling starting pitcher after Sale goes down, and Price deciding to sit out. So you've got Betts still, you miss the playoffs, and you finish with a middle of the 1st rd pick in the draft. Then Betts walks for nothing, he probably doesn't take Yorke, and you've got no Mayer or Casas in my hypothetical. Its a good question. We can obviously say he might panic and deal Casas. But then again how many prospects did he trade who really panned out? So if nothing else DD was really good at identifying who to trade and who to keep. He told Chicago he wasn't going to move Benny and Devers and they could have Moncada and Koepch instead for Sale. That was in retrospect the correct move. Signing Sale on the other hand...not so much. So you can't really tell. I think the farm would be worse but the major league roster would have been better and worst case Mookie walks and Boston gets a pick for him. You don't have Pivetta (home run move for Bloom), you probably see a lot of 2019 all over again. But do I think he trades Casas for a middling SP? Absolutely not. He didn't usually trade legit can't miss prospects.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 8, 2022 12:34:09 GMT -5
brb making the Dave Dombrowski Scoreboard
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 13:16:16 GMT -5
Can you point us to the specific comments where people have said Bloom is infallible? I think I missed all of those. I don't think I've seen you criticize one move of his. Even when its clear as day. You already know the set of posters who will like or hate any move he makes. Thats the trend on here. You'll sit back and ask me to cite 53 pages of comments to say where does anyone say Bloom is infallible, but yet we can also go through all of the pages where you have posters literally defending how good the Betts and Benintendi trades were for the Sox because of X Y and Z or hate the trade because of X Y Z. Some of his moves have been good. The bigger moves have been a disaster. Its okay to acknowledge this and move on without say burying the previous GM. Not for nothing the guy did bring a title to Boston and I believe only "lost" one trade while he was here. So if you want specific comments just re read posts in this thread. He failed in 2020 with his big moves. 2021 was a major win with almost all of his moves. 2022 has been a disaster. 2 out of the 3 years have been lackluster with the 1 year that was good was really good. Man, I stated multiple criticisms of Bloom in the first post of this thread. If you can't be bothered to read that, and can't be bothered to actually point to comments where people have said Bloom is infallible, I'm going to assume you're not debating in good faith here, and I'm not gonna waste my time on it.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 8, 2022 13:43:59 GMT -5
Something that's never discussed. What do we think Dombrowski would've done in 2020? I fear he panic trades a guy like Casas for a middling starting pitcher after Sale goes down, and Price deciding to sit out. So you've got Betts still, you miss the playoffs, and you finish with a middle of the 1st rd pick in the draft. Then Betts walks for nothing, he probably doesn't take Yorke, and you've got no Mayer or Casas in my hypothetical. Its a good question. We can obviously say he might panic and deal Casas. But then again how many prospects did he trade who really panned out? So if nothing else DD was really good at identifying who to trade and who to keep. He told Chicago he wasn't going to move Benny and Devers and they could have Moncada and Koepch instead for Sale. That was in retrospect the correct move. Signing Sale on the other hand...not so much. So you can't really tell. I think the farm would be worse but the major league roster would have been better and worst case Mookie walks and Boston gets a pick for him. You don't have Pivetta (home run move for Bloom), you probably see a lot of 2019 all over again. But do I think he trades Casas for a middling SP? Absolutely not. He didn't usually trade legit can't miss prospects. I think there's some revisionist history there with Anderson Espinoza. He was one of the top ranked pitchers by pipeline, and Fangraphs said he was in the running for the top prospect in the system, and they ended up putting him ahead of Devers in the organization ranks. This site was as dark as it could be when he got traded for a broken down pitcher. If he doesn't get hurt, he's an absolute stud, so Dombrowski got away with one there.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 8, 2022 14:15:29 GMT -5
Its a good question. We can obviously say he might panic and deal Casas. But then again how many prospects did he trade who really panned out? So if nothing else DD was really good at identifying who to trade and who to keep. He told Chicago he wasn't going to move Benny and Devers and they could have Moncada and Koepch instead for Sale. That was in retrospect the correct move. Signing Sale on the other hand...not so much. So you can't really tell. I think the farm would be worse but the major league roster would have been better and worst case Mookie walks and Boston gets a pick for him. You don't have Pivetta (home run move for Bloom), you probably see a lot of 2019 all over again. But do I think he trades Casas for a middling SP? Absolutely not. He didn't usually trade legit can't miss prospects. I think there's some revisionist history there with Anderson Espinoza. He was one of the top ranked pitchers by pipeline, and Fangraphs said he was in the running for the top prospect in the system, and they ended up putting him ahead of Devers in the organization ranks. This site was as dark as it could be when he got traded for a broken down pitcher. If he doesn't get hurt, he's an absolute stud, so Dombrowski got away with one there. People were PISSED at that trade
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 8, 2022 14:39:13 GMT -5
brb making the Dave Dombrowski Scoreboard
Rushed through this one, prob some mistakes.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 14:43:18 GMT -5
I think there's some revisionist history there with Anderson Espinoza. He was one of the top ranked pitchers by pipeline, and Fangraphs said he was in the running for the top prospect in the system, and they ended up putting him ahead of Devers in the organization ranks. This site was as dark as it could be when he got traded for a broken down pitcher. If he doesn't get hurt, he's an absolute stud, so Dombrowski got away with one there. People were PISSED at that trade Come to think of it, Dombrowski's successes had remarkably short shelf lives. Pomeranz was good in 2017 but he was lousy in 2018. Kimbrel was so-so in 2016, great in 2017 and the beginning of 2018, and lousy by the stretch run. Sale was great in 2017 and 2018, and it's been downhill from there.
All in all Dombrowski did a ton to make the 2017 Red Sox good enough to win 93 games and the division, had more ambivalent effects on the 2018 roster but did more to help it than to hurt it, and then the Dombrowski surplus was pretty much all spent down by 2019.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 14:49:49 GMT -5
brb making the Dave Dombrowski Scoreboard
Rushed through this one, prob some mistakes.
Gee, I wouldn't have guessed he did so poorly in free agency, especially since Eovaldi and Martinez have been worth close to their contracts. Other than Price who did he boof it on?
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 8, 2022 15:11:44 GMT -5
Rushed through this one, prob some mistakes.
Gee, I wouldn't have guessed he did so poorly in free agency, especially since Eovaldi and Martinez have been worth close to their contracts. Other than Price who did he boof it on? He did not do so hot on the lower level free agents. Pearce, Moreland, Nunez and Chris Young got paid $53 million for a combined 0.5 WAR
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2022 15:12:53 GMT -5
Its a good question. We can obviously say he might panic and deal Casas. But then again how many prospects did he trade who really panned out? So if nothing else DD was really good at identifying who to trade and who to keep. He told Chicago he wasn't going to move Benny and Devers and they could have Moncada and Koepch instead for Sale. That was in retrospect the correct move. Signing Sale on the other hand...not so much. So you can't really tell. I think the farm would be worse but the major league roster would have been better and worst case Mookie walks and Boston gets a pick for him. You don't have Pivetta (home run move for Bloom), you probably see a lot of 2019 all over again. But do I think he trades Casas for a middling SP? Absolutely not. He didn't usually trade legit can't miss prospects. I think there's some revisionist history there with Anderson Espinoza. He was one of the top ranked pitchers by pipeline, and Fangraphs said he was in the running for the top prospect in the system, and they ended up putting him ahead of Devers in the organization ranks. This site was as dark as it could be when he got traded for a broken down pitcher. If he doesn't get hurt, he's an absolute stud, so Dombrowski got away with one there. But that actually turned out to be a pretty great trade. I was glad to see AE used as a chip precisely because of the injury risk. He’s a little dude. And Pom had one very good year. And his performance since (elsewhere, granted) has shown he was a really good arm. But this is also an example of a trade that makes sense all around. No one got snookered, there was no mad genius… it was just a fair coming together of needs.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Sept 8, 2022 15:22:42 GMT -5
I think there's some revisionist history there with Anderson Espinoza. He was one of the top ranked pitchers by pipeline, and Fangraphs said he was in the running for the top prospect in the system, and they ended up putting him ahead of Devers in the organization ranks. This site was as dark as it could be when he got traded for a broken down pitcher. If he doesn't get hurt, he's an absolute stud, so Dombrowski got away with one there. But that actually turned out to be a pretty great trade. I was glad to see AE used as a chip precisely because of the injury risk. He’s a little dude. And Pom had one very good year. And his performance since (elsewhere, granted) has shown he was a really good arm. But this is also an example of a trade that makes sense all around. No one got snookered, there was no mad genius… it was just a fair coming together of needs. Oh come on. I'm not saying you're wrong or anything, but if someone tried to argue to you that a player was good because of quality years that he'd had post-Red Sox you wouldn't have it for a second.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 8, 2022 15:32:59 GMT -5
I think there's some revisionist history there with Anderson Espinoza. He was one of the top ranked pitchers by pipeline, and Fangraphs said he was in the running for the top prospect in the system, and they ended up putting him ahead of Devers in the organization ranks. This site was as dark as it could be when he got traded for a broken down pitcher. If he doesn't get hurt, he's an absolute stud, so Dombrowski got away with one there. But that actually turned out to be a pretty great trade. I was glad to see AE used as a chip precisely because of the injury risk. He’s a little dude. And Pom had one very good year. And his performance since (elsewhere, granted) has shown he was a really good arm.
But this is also an example of a trade that makes sense all around. No one got snookered, there was no mad genius… it was just a fair coming together of needs. His performance since includes 43 very good relief innings and a lot of being injured. Overall he has a 3.88 ERA since leaving the Red Sox and a 3.91 ERA for his whole career. He had a 4.24 ERA for the Red Sox. He's consistently been... fine. But injury-prone.
It did work out for the Red Sox okay. But in general, I would not support a policy of "trade a top-flight pitching prospect for two years of a #3 type starter because the prospect might get injured in the future."
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2022 15:37:14 GMT -5
But that actually turned out to be a pretty great trade. I was glad to see AE used as a chip precisely because of the injury risk. He’s a little dude. And Pom had one very good year. And his performance since (elsewhere, granted) has shown he was a really good arm. But this is also an example of a trade that makes sense all around. No one got snookered, there was no mad genius… it was just a fair coming together of needs. Oh come on. I'm not saying you're wrong or anything, but if someone tried to argue to you that a player was good because of quality years that he'd had post-Red Sox you wouldn't have it for a second. True. My point was really just if you projected from the moment that trade was made, you could get all sad and say “we gave up an elite arm”! — but in retrospect it is Pom who had the value.
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Post by manfred on Sept 8, 2022 15:40:21 GMT -5
But that actually turned out to be a pretty great trade. I was glad to see AE used as a chip precisely because of the injury risk. He’s a little dude. And Pom had one very good year. And his performance since (elsewhere, granted) has shown he was a really good arm.
But this is also an example of a trade that makes sense all around. No one got snookered, there was no mad genius… it was just a fair coming together of needs. His performance since includes 43 very good relief innings and a lot of being injured. Overall he has a 3.88 ERA since leaving the Red Sox and a 3.91 ERA for his whole career. He had a 4.24 ERA for the Red Sox. He's consistently been... fine. But injury-prone.
It did work out for the Red Sox okay. But in general, I would not support a policy of "trade a top-flight pitching prospect for two years of a #3 type starter because the prospect might get injured in the future."
I am not saying it is policy… case by case. If they traded Bello for, well almost anything, I’d be horrified. He looks so close. But AE was not at all close, and the combination of body-type, age, and time made me think it was worth gambling that between him and our hopes something would go wrong. So, yeah, I’m with you — not a principle unless there are tons of if/then clauses.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Sept 9, 2022 9:24:18 GMT -5
But that actually turned out to be a pretty great trade. I was glad to see AE used as a chip precisely because of the injury risk. He’s a little dude. And Pom had one very good year. And his performance since (elsewhere, granted) has shown he was a really good arm.
But this is also an example of a trade that makes sense all around. No one got snookered, there was no mad genius… it was just a fair coming together of needs. His performance since includes 43 very good relief innings and a lot of being injured. Overall he has a 3.88 ERA since leaving the Red Sox and a 3.91 ERA for his whole career. He had a 4.24 ERA for the Red Sox. He's consistently been... fine. But injury-prone.
It did work out for the Red Sox okay. But in general, I would not support a policy of "trade a top-flight pitching prospect for two years of a #3 type starter because the prospect might get injured in the future."
It wasn't just injury related though, he got hit rather hard in A ball for a guy rated so high. More hits than innings or strikeouts. The results just weren't there for a guy rated so highly, it was all just upside. He reminded me of Margot, who people had rated so high because they thought he had 30 HR power he never showed in minors. Here's the thing you can't argue it's just luck DD has a long track record of knowing when to sell high and who he should keep. A great skill for a GM and much better than just keep everyone because you can't judge minor league talent. That trade is a perfect example of how good DD was at that.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2022 10:07:05 GMT -5
His performance since includes 43 very good relief innings and a lot of being injured. Overall he has a 3.88 ERA since leaving the Red Sox and a 3.91 ERA for his whole career. He had a 4.24 ERA for the Red Sox. He's consistently been... fine. But injury-prone.
It did work out for the Red Sox okay. But in general, I would not support a policy of "trade a top-flight pitching prospect for two years of a #3 type starter because the prospect might get injured in the future."
It wasn't just injury related though, he got hit rather hard in A ball for a guy rated so high. More hits than innings or strikeouts. The results just weren't there for a guy rated so highly, it was all just upside. He reminded me of Margot, who people had rated so high because they thought he had 30 HR power he never showed in minors.Here's the thing you can't argue it's just luck DD has a long track record of knowing when to sell high and who he should keep. A great skill for a GM and much better than just keep everyone because you can't judge minor league talent. That trade is a perfect example of how good DD was at that. Wait what? Who said that about Margot ever? Not at all my recollection and I couldn't find any scouting reports from the time saying that. In fact even once he was a top 25 ranked prospect a report I found from an aggregator at the time explicitly says "He won't ever be a guy to threaten 30 home runs."
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Sept 9, 2022 10:24:28 GMT -5
It wasn't just injury related though, he got hit rather hard in A ball for a guy rated so high. More hits than innings or strikeouts. The results just weren't there for a guy rated so highly, it was all just upside. He reminded me of Margot, who people had rated so high because they thought he had 30 HR power he never showed in minors.Here's the thing you can't argue it's just luck DD has a long track record of knowing when to sell high and who he should keep. A great skill for a GM and much better than just keep everyone because you can't judge minor league talent. That trade is a perfect example of how good DD was at that. Wait what? Who said that about Margot ever? Not at all my recollection and I couldn't find any scouting reports from the time saying that. In fact even once he was a top 25 ranked prospect a report I found from an aggregator at the time explicitly says "He won't ever be a guy to threaten 30 home runs." Hell, let's just look at SP: Power: Surprising power for someone his size. Ball makes unique sound off his bat. Doubles power has started developing into over-the-fence power. Squares the ball up consistently and can drive with backspin. Average power potential (15ish home runs a year). Could hit 30 doubles a year And then pipeline gave him a power ceiling of 45, and had this to say: Though he's a bit undersized, he has some deceptive strength and should produce double-digit home run totals in the Majors. So, ya, that 30 home run statement is bananas
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 9, 2022 10:38:18 GMT -5
DD's reputation of knowing who to hold on to does not really survive a retrospective of his trade record, as I made available a few posts up. It is true that Anderson Espinoza didn't really make it. On the other hand, he gave up a future major league all star for two months of Steve Pearce. Tyler Thornburg cost someone that would put up 8.5 WAR the next two seasons. On the whole, I'd say his results were not strong in this regard.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 9, 2022 10:44:21 GMT -5
DD's reputation of knowing who to hold on to does not really survive a retrospective of his trade record, as I made available a few posts up. It is true that Anderson Espinoza didn't really make it. On the other hand, he gave up a future major league all star for two months of Steve Pearce. Tyler Thornburg cost someone that would put up 8.5 WAR the next two seasons. On the whole, I'd say his results were not strong in this regard. People will probably jump on this to say that it was worth it because Steve Pearce was awesome down the stretch and in the playoffs in 2018 and I agree that should be taken into account, but the point is that he could have gotten him for someone other than Espinal. He was never some infallible prospect evaluator.
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