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Red Sox Acquire Eric Hosmer
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 2, 2022 21:37:33 GMT -5
So according to Fangraphs, Groome was the best prospect in this transaction… Bloom is just addicted to back end farm depth I guess. Groome wasn’t going to get protected in the Rule 5, so that changes the equation. These are close to non prospects though Groome was already on the 40-man (and will be on SD's) and he also has to make the 2024 Opening Day roster or be put through waivers in order to send him down. He's made three career starts at AAA, so his clock was ticking pretty loud. If he doesn't have a good year at AAA (El Paso Chihuahuas?) next season -- in the high-altitude PCL -- they're going to have a serious decision to make a year from now.
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 2, 2022 21:37:52 GMT -5
So we just acquired a quality 1st baseman for free under control for a few more years. This was an amazing deal! Now we can spend our money on Devers and X and we have Casas and Hosmer to play 1st and DH next season. Great move! 1 less position to fill and we don’t even have to pay him and we don’t ever have to see Franchy at 1st! WOW! I feel like I'm now the curmudgeoned old Red Sox fan given all of this positivity. Hosmer, by no measure, is a quality first baseman. He is an MLB quality player as a backup - if he's starting at any position, there's a problem. That said, the Padres are paying his salary, so that's just fine. The Red Sox got two prospects. Both are likely below the level of Groome, but close enough that we should feel content on the return. The main issue with Groome is that he appeared to be #6 in the 'passable back-end starter' pecking order that is now our AAA (and MLB until health improves) rotation. So he was very expandable. This trade wasn't some amazing steal (unless one of those guys comes out of nowhere and becomes a stud) but a solid deal that benefits the Red Sox both short and long term. We should feel good about it - but it's not in the 'Heathcliff Slocumb to the Mariners' range of excellence by any means. His batting line is pretty equal to Vasquez this year and hes having a hell of a year. You probably wanted us to get a free first baseman and take on their number 1 prospect too huh?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 2, 2022 21:43:42 GMT -5
That's pretty bad. Puts the Sox in a harder position to spend the next 3 years, they're going to have to duck under at some point. Not to mention the extra 200k slot bonus when you offer Eovaldi the QO and he rejects it. You're trying to extend Xander and Devers and tying yourself in a pretzel this year trying to do so. There's a ton of money coming off the books this off-season (JDM, Vaz already gone, half-Price, Hill, Wacha, Eovaldi, Kique), so there's not really going to be much problem getting under.
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Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2022 21:44:59 GMT -5
That's pretty bad. Puts the Sox in a harder position to spend the next 3 years, they're going to have to duck under at some point. Not to mention the extra 200k slot bonus when you offer Eovaldi the QO and he rejects it. You're trying to extend Xander and Devers and tying yourself in a pretzel this year trying to do so. There's a ton of money coming off the books this off-season (JDM, Vaz already gone, half-Price, Hill, Wacha, Eovaldi, Kique), so there's not really going to be much problem getting under. Could be hard if they want to compete for first in the East. They will need to replace those guys.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 2, 2022 21:54:10 GMT -5
Like Rosier. No idea why they'd want Ferguson. Meh, probably not worth it. Really disappointed not to get Campusano. They should have taken Myers too if it got them Campusano. Really hope that McGuire isn't the 2023 plan at catcher. I don't really get the Campusano talk. He's their top prospect and a legit 55-60. That was only going to happen if the Sox carried all of Hosmer's freight. But it's the opposite. SD paid all of the freight, giving BOS all the flexibility going forward. If Hosmer doesn't work out (don't tell @eric...), they can just cut his ass. You can't really do that if you're paying him $13m per.
The other prospects in the deal, essentially Groome for Rosier and Ferguson, are pretty much a formality. Preller painted himself into a corner (albeit a very comfortable corner that includes Soto and Bell) and pretty much had to move Hosmer. Chaim said "hey, I can help you out," but you can't really trade a guy with a huge contract for "cash considerations" because all the cash is also going in the same direction as Hosmer. So Chaim has to send a prospect back to SD, they settle on Groome, Chaim says "well, Groome is too much, so let me pick a couple guys from your farm," and there you go.
The amazing thing is that getting Hosmer for free -- which is actually a temporary upgrade for the BOS 1B situation -- even brought back a couple lottery tickets when Groome was added.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 2, 2022 21:59:25 GMT -5
I feel like I'm now the curmudgeoned old Red Sox fan given all of this positivity. Hosmer, by no measure, is a quality first baseman. He is an MLB quality player as a backup - if he's starting at any position, there's a problem. That said, the Padres are paying his salary, so that's just fine. The Red Sox got two prospects. Both are likely below the level of Groome, but close enough that we should feel content on the return. The main issue with Groome is that he appeared to be #6 in the 'passable back-end starter' pecking order that is now our AAA (and MLB until health improves) rotation. So he was very expandable. This trade wasn't some amazing steal (unless one of those guys comes out of nowhere and becomes a stud) but a solid deal that benefits the Red Sox both short and long term. We should feel good about it - but it's not in the 'Heathcliff Slocumb to the Mariners' range of excellence by any means. His batting line is pretty equal to Vasquez this year and hes having a hell of a year. You probably wanted us to get a free first baseman and take on their number 1 prospect too huh? That would have been great, but not reasonable. Why are you attacking me for saying it was a solid trade?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 2, 2022 22:04:58 GMT -5
There's a ton of money coming off the books this off-season (JDM, Vaz already gone, half-Price, Hill, Wacha, Eovaldi, Kique), so there's not really going to be much problem getting under. Could be hard if they want to compete for first in the East. They will need to replace those guys. True but they had to replace those guys anyway (except for half-Price). Hill and Wacha will likely be replaced from within. Maybe Vazquez.
But you're right, a choice was made not to move JD or Eovaldi or Hill, who could've probably gotten them under. Now you just hope that they can go on a run with guys coming back from injury and Hosmer replacing Vazquez in the order.
Chaim appears to have listened to the players, at least after he had already cut Vazquez loose.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2022 22:11:51 GMT -5
Like Rosier. No idea why they'd want Ferguson. Meh, probably not worth it. Really disappointed not to get Campusano. They should have taken Myers too if it got them Campusano. Really hope that McGuire isn't the 2023 plan at catcher. I don't really get the Campusano talk. He's their top prospect and a legit 55-60. That was only going to happen if the Sox carried all of Hosmer's freight. But it's the opposite. SD paid all of the freight, giving BOS all the flexibility going forward. If Hosmer doesn't work out (don't tell @eric...), they can just cut his ass. You can't really do that if you're paying him $13m per. The other prospects in the deal, essentially Groome for Rosier and Ferguson, are pretty much a formality. Preller painted himself into a corner (albeit a very comfortable corner that includes Soto and Bell) and pretty much had to move Hosmer. Chaim said "hey, I can help you out," but you can't really trade a guy with a huge contract for "cash considerations" because all the cash is also going in the same direction as Hosmer. So Chaim has to send a prospect back to SD, they settle on Groome, Chaim says "well, Groome is too much, so let me pick a couple guys from your farm," and there you go. The amazing thing is that getting Hosmer for free -- which is actually a temporary upgrade for the BOS 1B situation -- even brought back a couple lottery tickets when Groome was added.
I wasn't talking about getting Hosmer for free. The Sox are over the luxury tax limit this year anyways so my thinking is take on a pct of Hosmer's salary. Take on Myers' contract for the rest of the season. Help them get under the limit if that can get you Campusano. I mean they took on an expensive washed up JBJ and have away a reasonably productive OF to get a guy who doesn't really have a defensive position and a questionable hit tool. Obviously I wanted Campusano because they have so little on the minor leagues that qualifies as a viable major league starting catcher. Hernandez has defensive issues and his lack of plate discipline is concerning. Wong is not much more than a backup. I'd say Hickey is their best catching prospect but is he even a viable catcher?
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Post by bosoxnation on Aug 2, 2022 22:20:19 GMT -5
His batting line is pretty equal to Vasquez this year and hes having a hell of a year. You probably wanted us to get a free first baseman and take on their number 1 prospect too huh? That would have been great, but not reasonable. Why are you attacking me for saying it was a solid trade? Not attacking you but how is him starting a problem? You know who hit very similar to him as a red sox. Kevin Miller and Steven Pearce, you know just a couple of major WS champion contributors. How is a guy who’s good defensively and hitting .280 not starter worthy? I would love to hear it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 2, 2022 22:24:42 GMT -5
I don't really get the Campusano talk. He's their top prospect and a legit 55-60. That was only going to happen if the Sox carried all of Hosmer's freight. But it's the opposite. SD paid all of the freight, giving BOS all the flexibility going forward. If Hosmer doesn't work out (don't tell @eric...), they can just cut his ass. You can't really do that if you're paying him $13m per. The other prospects in the deal, essentially Groome for Rosier and Ferguson, are pretty much a formality. Preller painted himself into a corner (albeit a very comfortable corner that includes Soto and Bell) and pretty much had to move Hosmer. Chaim said "hey, I can help you out," but you can't really trade a guy with a huge contract for "cash considerations" because all the cash is also going in the same direction as Hosmer. So Chaim has to send a prospect back to SD, they settle on Groome, Chaim says "well, Groome is too much, so let me pick a couple guys from your farm," and there you go. The amazing thing is that getting Hosmer for free -- which is actually a temporary upgrade for the BOS 1B situation -- even brought back a couple lottery tickets when Groome was added.
I wasn't talking about getting Hosmer for free. The Sox are over the luxury tax limit this year anyways so my thinking is take on a pct of Hosmer's salary. Take on Myers' contract for the rest of the season. Help them get under the limit if that can get you Campusano. I mean they took on an expensive washed up JBJ and have away a reasonably productive OF to get a guy who doesn't really have a defensive position and a questionable hit tool. Obviously I wanted Campusano because they have so little on the minor leagues that qualifies as a viable major league starting catcher. Hernandez has defensive issues and his lack of plate discipline is concerning. Wong is not much more than a backup. I'd say Hickey is their best catching prospect but is he even a viable catcher? He also has a ton of viable trade assets and 8 months to work on it. At one point after the Vazquez trade, he acknowledged this situation. In reality, he is better off now because he has one more catcher than he would have had if he kept CVaz.
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Post by orion09 on Aug 2, 2022 22:31:58 GMT -5
Random thoughts:
If Hosmer keeps playing the way he’s been playing (105 wRC+ with below avg defense), he’s in the range of 0.5-1 WAR… essentially 2021 Bobby Dalbec.
If Eric is right, and Hosmer is able to use the Monster and turn back into a ~120 wRC+ guy, he’s worth more like 2-2.5 WAR, ie Garrett Cooper or CJ Cron, ie a solid starter. So has a chance to be a solid addition on what amounts to a pre-arb rookie deal (3.5 years at league minimum).
I’m bummed to lose Jay Groome, if for no other reason than to see him pitch in a Sox uniform. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him turn up throwing mid 90s as a reliever, whether for the Padres or another team. He’s always struck me as having a bit of Drew Pomeranz in him, a guy who could put it together but may have to bounce around the league a bit first.
I don’t expect either of the prospects we got back to amount to anything. Bloom seems to love his flawed, 1 or 2 tool 35 FV guys. You figure one of them has to hit eventually… right?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,196
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Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2022 22:33:56 GMT -5
Rosier has a .380 OBP, I’d say he is already showing he can hit a bit
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Aug 2, 2022 22:45:13 GMT -5
Not going to lie, this plus two prospects is impressive. Don’t really care for Groome, helps with the 40-man crunch.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,196
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Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2022 23:26:39 GMT -5
I mean Hosmer at the league min for 3 more full years is such a shrewd move. To gain prospects with that is kinda insane tbh.
At the very worst he’s a useful bench piece and great mentor to Casas (who he has a prior relationship with). Nice to have his playoff experience too
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 3, 2022 0:36:12 GMT -5
Rosier has a .380 OBP, I’d say he is already showing he can hit a bit He's hitting .260 or so I believe. It doesn't really show that he can hit as much as it shows he can be selective and draw walks to get on base. I do wonder as he advances if pitchers will attach him more directly because he doesn't have power and they'll try to force him to hit his way on and then I wonder if he has enough of a hit tool to be more than just a backup OF. I remember Brett Butler, who could fly. He didn't have power but he could hit .280 - .300 and draw a lot of walks. If he's hitting .260 in the minors I wonder what that translates to in the majors if the walk rate decreases. The other guy they got walks a ton, too and he can fly as well, but he's hitting like .220. Don't know about the hit tool on these two guys.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,196
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Post by cdj on Aug 3, 2022 0:41:33 GMT -5
Rosier has a .380 OBP, I’d say he is already showing he can hit a bit He's hitting .260 or so I believe. It doesn't really show that he can hit as much as it shows he can be selective and draw walks to get on base. I do wonder as he advances if pitchers will attach him more directly because he doesn't have power and they'll try to force him to hit his way on and then I wonder if he has enough of a hit tool to be more than just a backup OF. I remember Brett Butler, who could fly. He didn't have power but he could hit .280 - .300 and draw a lot of walks. If he's hitting .260 in the minors I wonder what that translates to in the majors if the walk rate decreases. The other guy they got walks a ton, too and he can fly as well, but he's hitting like .220. Don't know about the hit tool on these two guys. He strikes out 18% of the time and has put together an age-appropriate .296/.401/.455 line in the minors. I’m not worried about his hit tool. Perhaps he’s lacking a little in pop but the kid clearly knows what he’s doing up there. Great approach and he makes contact. I do question Ferguson’s hit tool- apparently his bat speed is an issue and he’s not striking out *a ton* but he’s clearly not driving the ball consistently. Get him to the weight room and see if he can start to do it a passable clip, if he can start driving the ball he’s got some interesting other tools/abilities
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 3, 2022 0:46:37 GMT -5
I can't believe I didn't do this first thing. Seduced by Statcast!
Hosmer vs. the Red Sox at home .221 / .302 / .484 (106 PA)
Hosmer in Fenway .354 / .404 / .485 (109 PA)
For easy comparison (and because it's worth repeating)
.221 / .302 / .484
.354 / .404 / .485
Note that a split like this (though doubtlessly exaggerated) is much more meaningful than is usual, when you already expect or predict it, because you know exactly why it should happen.
It seems as if he's messed with his swing in his Padre years, and maybe more than once. Translating his current numbers to Fenway seems to add just .006 to his wOBA, because he doesn't hit the ball the other way all that often. But at times in his career (2020 especially) he's hit the ball more in the air and pulled it more, with very good results.
I'm not going to crunch any further numbers. If they haven't already broken down all his different plate approaches over the years at a level of detail that would make our brains coagulate, they're doing it now. He very likely recalls his Fenway success and he'll be very eager to work with the team to find an approach that will yield maximum results.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 3, 2022 0:50:14 GMT -5
I can't believe I didn't do this first thing. Seduced by Statcast!
Hosmer vs. the Red Sox at home .221 / .302 / .484 (106 PA)
Hosmer in Fenway .354 / .404 / .485 (109 PA)
For easy comparison (and because it's worth repeating)
.221 / .302 / .484
.354 / .404 / .485
Note that a split like this (though doubtlessly exaggerated) is much more meaningful than is usual, when you already expect or predict it, because you know exactly why it should happen.
It seems as if he's messed with his swing in his Padre years, and maybe more than once. Translating his current numbers to Fenway seems to add just .006 to his wOBA, because he doesn't hit the ball the other way all that often. But at times in his career (2020 especially) he's hit the ball more in the air and pulled it more, with very good results.
I'm not going to crunch any further numbers. If they haven't already broken down all his different plate approaches over the years at a level of detail that would make our brains coagulate, they're doing it now. He very likely recalls his Fenway success and he'll be very eager to work with the team to find an approach that will yield maximum results.
So his ISO collapses when he's at Fenway...?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,196
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Post by cdj on Aug 3, 2022 0:54:49 GMT -5
I can't believe I didn't do this first thing. Seduced by Statcast!
Hosmer vs. the Red Sox at home .221 / .302 / .484 (106 PA)
Hosmer in Fenway .354 / .404 / .485 (109 PA)
For easy comparison (and because it's worth repeating)
.221 / .302 / .484
.354 / .404 / .485
Note that a split like this (though doubtlessly exaggerated) is much more meaningful than is usual, when you already expect or predict it, because you know exactly why it should happen.
It seems as if he's messed with his swing in his Padre years, and maybe more than once. Translating his current numbers to Fenway seems to add just .006 to his wOBA, because he doesn't hit the ball the other way all that often. But at times in his career (2020 especially) he's hit the ball more in the air and pulled it more, with very good results.
I'm not going to crunch any further numbers. If they haven't already broken down all his different plate approaches over the years at a level of detail that would make our brains coagulate, they're doing it now. He very likely recalls his Fenway success and he'll be very eager to work with the team to find an approach that will yield maximum results.
So his ISO collapses when he's at Fenway...? My lung can collapse and I won’t care if he hits .354/.404/.484
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Post by incandenza on Aug 3, 2022 1:03:44 GMT -5
Oh sure, but if the point here is to tease out a Fenway effect...
I mean it could mean he smacks a bunch of line drive singles off the Monster and his pulled flies die out in right field - higher BA, lower ISO. I'd take it if the OPS is 100 points higher than it's been in San Diego, but I'm skeptical the effect is really that big.
Also since coming to San Diego he's had generally really big home/road splits - he's been much better at home. So it doesn't seem like the home stadium has been killing him or anything.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 3, 2022 1:44:38 GMT -5
Not attacking you but how is him starting a problem? You know who hit very similar to him as a red sox. Kevin Miller and Steven Pearce, you know just a couple of major WS champion contributors. How is a guy who’s good defensively and hitting .280 not starter worthy? I would love to hear it. Kevin Mill ar slashed .297/.383/.474 in 2004 when they won the World Series while Steve Pearce slashed .278/.384/.512 when they won in 2018. Perhaps we get lucky and Hosmer goes on a short-term hot streak, like he did in 2020, but right now he's hitting .272/.336/.391 - that's better than the Red Sox have produced from their 1st basemen this year, but not close to the levels you're referring to. Aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season where Hosmer had 156 PA, he hasn't hit .280 since 2017. He is 32, so we should have some concern that age wears him down, but he consistently hits around league average and we can hope that continues. That's quite good for an average-to-better defender at 2B/SS/CF/3B/C, but for a 1st baseman, it's below average. His defense (despite the popularity GG win) has never been very good. He's a below-average to fringe-average level defender at first base. Due to his veteran presence, I expect he will get the 1st base nod defensively over Dalbec in late-game situations, but he's not a clear upgrade defensively (perhaps marginal upgrade if you are looking for the right numbers). The trade seems pretty good as it fills an immediate need with little long-term risk while swapping a prospect who didn't have much future here with 2 others who may, but imagining Hosmer is a completely different player isn't needed. He's absolutely not a long-term solution, but a short-term strong-side platoon 1st baseman (he has reverse splits this year, but it's likely a fluke) and insurance for 2023 (when JD may leave and Casas may not be ready) is nice to have.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 3, 2022 6:10:23 GMT -5
Having Hosmer at 1b at the minimum is like if a genie told you he could make Franchy have a .725 OPS and be a competent 1b with the proviso that he has to become a slow runner.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 3, 2022 6:38:12 GMT -5
Having Hosmer at 1b at the minimum is like if a genie told you he could make Franchy have a .725 OPS and be a competent 1b with the proviso that he has to become a slow runner. And the genie put a Franchy duplicate in Woosta.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 3, 2022 7:20:56 GMT -5
Not attacking you but how is him starting a problem? You know who hit very similar to him as a red sox. Kevin Miller and Steven Pearce, you know just a couple of major WS champion contributors. How is a guy who’s good defensively and hitting .280 not starter worthy? I would love to hear it. Kevin Mill ar slashed .297/.383/.474 in 2004 when they won the World Series while Steve Pearce slashed .278/.384/.512 when they won in 2018. Perhaps we get lucky and Hosmer goes on a short-term hot streak, like he did in 2020, but right now he's hitting .272/.336/.391 - that's better than the Red Sox have produced from their 1st basemen this year, but not close to the levels you're referring to. Aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season where Hosmer had 156 PA, he hasn't hit .280 since 2017. He is 32, so we should have some concern that age wears him down, but he consistently hits around league average and we can hope that continues. That's quite good for an average-to-better defender at 2B/SS/CF/3B/C, but for a 1st baseman, it's below average. His defense (despite the popularity GG win) has never been very good. He's a below-average to fringe-average level defender at first base. Due to his veteran presence, I expect he will get the 1st base nod defensively over Dalbec in late-game situations, but he's not a clear upgrade defensively (perhaps marginal upgrade if you are looking for the right numbers). The trade seems pretty good as it fills an immediate need with little long-term risk while swapping a prospect who didn't have much future here with 2 others who may, but imagining Hosmer is a completely different player isn't needed. He's absolutely not a long-term solution, but a short-term strong-side platoon 1st baseman (he has reverse splits this year, but it's likely a fluke) and insurance for 2023 (when JD may leave and Casas may not be ready) is nice to have. I think I value the league minimum salary for Hosmer more than you seem to. Hosmer is decent offensively. 107 wRC+ this year and for his career. Even if ericmvan's optimism about his bat in Fenway is unwarranted, that is still an above average big league bat until age takes it away. Defensively he's below average, but competent. That's a massive upgrade at 1B for this year versus the Cordero/Dalbec platoon, and basically for free. Casas is on the way at some point late this year or early next year. JDM is probably gone after this season, though. So, enter Hosmer as a DH. I don't see him as a backup option, or insurance, although he may turn into that if Casas fails. I see him as a clear starter. You might look at his numbers and think they look mediocre, and that's fine, but he will be making the league minimum and he provides value at that price. Having Hosmer means one less position the Sox need to stretch their free agent budget over, which will allow them to bring in more quality players to round out the roster. Value is the name of the game, and Hosmer has it. Edit: My only question is if Bobby and Hosmer will both hang around if and when Casas establishes himself. A guy like Arroyo, who can handle 3B in addition to middle infield, feels more valuable as a backup, and would make a dedicated 1B/3B guy unnecessary if he can stay healthy. I suppose it depends on performance, health, and how extreme the platoon splits end up being.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 3, 2022 8:20:32 GMT -5
I don't get the negative towards Groome, age 23 in AA and AAA averaging about 9 strikeouts per 9 innings and his stuff hasn't fully returned. A lot of players can take two full years to get all there stuff back after TJ surgery. Worst case he's what fighting for a bullpen spot next year? If trading him actually helped you get some good prospects I'd be fine with it.
If the Padres were willing to pay his entire salary to save $5 million in AAV for luxury tax, did Bloom miss an opportunity here? What could he have gotten If we took on his entire salary? I would have taken that contract if it meant getting Campusano. That's buying prospects.
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