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If Soto IS next Trout/Mantle do Sox go all in for 10yr deal?
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Post by telson13 on Aug 6, 2022 11:52:10 GMT -5
I tend to want to see the team build a more even roster with more emphasis on a solid rotation and pen. It’s always sexy to sign or trade for big names, but once a team gets a player like Machado you tend to forget about them. Also mega teams haven’t been proven yet to win. The 2001 Mariners won a 116 games after losing Arod, Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson. The 2007 team was boring but professional and won. If we need another Soto type player to pair with Devers, then why not see what Atlanta wants for Acuna. After signing Olson and Riley to long term deals, They may have to deal Acuna at some point. 2004 with Schilling, Pedro, Manny and Foulke were pretty close to a "mega team." They were some of the more expensive players on the market for their positions at that time. Their value over-performers were Bill Mueller, Jason Varitek and David Ortiz. True. And that's not necessarily always a negative if a team is developing and retaining its own talent on the high end (or trading and signing as with Pedro). It makes no sense to pursue Acuna, or anyone else for that matter, in trade if they can shed salary elsewhere. The excess value on a contract like Acuna's (not to mention length and his injury history) would require an absurd talent pay-out, effectively gutting the depth in young talent that would allow the team to rotate in inexpensive players or trade for need. I understand and generally agree with peoples' reticence on big contracts, and there is *always* catastrophe risk, but Soto gets most of his value from his superb hit tool...and at 23 that's far less likely to decline than essentially any other tool. If anything, it's the one most likely to remain stable or even improve (although we can probably expect more power from Soto in 3-6 years). Soto also seems ideally suited for Fenway, and would benefit immensely from some better hitters around him. He's having a down year in production with underlying metrics largely unchanged.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 6, 2022 12:15:51 GMT -5
Of the major North American sports, baseball is the one where one transcendent talent impacts winning the least. Soto is also a very good player but, unless he dramatically improves his defense, looks more like a perennial All-Star than the best player in the league. As such, feels to me like this thread is 18 months too early if we need it at all. I’d be much more interested in the analogous Ohtani thread. It's a really interesting comparison. Soto is barely at the age where most players make it to MLB, and his calling card tools are the most likely to improve over the next 6-7 years (hit tool and power) historically, but not necessarily. I think he's low-risk to be an under-4 WAR player given his toolset, and there's a significant (20-40% chance?) his wOBA improves with a typical IsoP increase in his late-20s and his BAs are 20-30 points higher, and he's a perennial 7-8 guy. Albert Pujols without the defensive value. Rickey Henderson without the wheels. You're right, that's not transcendent like Trout (or like Ohtani seems he might be for several years). What's the longest Mookie ever really sustained his time over that line? Ohtani seems a higher bust risk (another TJ and loss of his pitching value makes him a very good DH, and his dependence on power>hit is a cliff risk), but probably the only other player in baseball right now with a good (again, 20-40% maybe) chance of capably taking on the Trout mantle of "undisputed best player" for the better part of a decade. If the Sox locked up Devers, and it looked like Mayer was more likely star than starter or stopgap, I'd far prefer Ohtani to Soto. I think the added risk is worth the massive marketing value and the possibility of historical significance...the sort of player who defines a franchise era and shapes its future. I see Soto as the conservative play, Ohtani the boom-bust gamble with better-than-hoped odds and a monster win payoff.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2022 12:32:47 GMT -5
Of the major North American sports, baseball is the one where one transcendent talent impacts winning the least. Soto is also a very good player but, unless he dramatically improves his defense, looks more like a perennial All-Star than the best player in the league. As such, feels to me like this thread is 18 months too early if we need it at all. I’d be much more interested in the analogous Ohtani thread. Ohtani is interesting because you're paying for a 3-4 fWAR pitcher and about a 3 fWAR hitter. The former makes him a top-10 starter. As a hitter, you're looking at a .350ish OBP guy with 30 or so bombs a year in his prime, so a top 30 guy in MLB. Again, years are a concern, but there really is no comp. Still, it's not insane to say $50M AAV is probably a floor for negotiations, given that he fills two positions and is elite at one and well above average at the other.
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Post by teddyballgame9 on Aug 6, 2022 12:33:23 GMT -5
2004 with Schilling, Pedro, Manny and Foulke were pretty close to a "mega team." They were some of the more expensive players on the market for their positions at that time. Their value over-performers were Bill Mueller, Jason Varitek and David Ortiz. True. And that's not necessarily always a negative if a team is developing and retaining its own talent on the high end (or trading and signing as with Pedro). It makes no sense to pursue Acuna, or anyone else for that matter, in trade if they can shed salary elsewhere. The excess value on a contract like Acuna's (not to mention length and his injury history) would require an absurd talent pay-out, effectively gutting the depth in young talent that would allow the team to rotate in inexpensive players or trade for need. I understand and generally agree with peoples' reticence on big contracts, and there is *always* catastrophe risk, but Soto gets most of his value from his superb hit tool...and at 23 that's far less likely to decline than essentially any other tool. If anything, it's the one most likely to remain stable or even improve (although we can probably expect more power from Soto in 3-6 years). Soto also seems ideally suited for Fenway, and would benefit immensely from some better hitters around him. He's having a down year in production with underlying metrics largely unchanged. I’m not advocating trading for Acuna rather just pointing out there are other players that can be had not named Soto. My original point was to have B/B+ talent at good Cost weather it be home grown talent or a few FA on 5 or less year contracts. I would like Devers locked up as a cornerstone and surround him with solid players that play both good defense and offense. I’d rather invest in Trea Turner and pair him up with Story. I think Xander is gone anyways but his unwillingness to move off SS makes it more difficult. Turner and Story are at least willing to move to other positions which is important IMO when players like Mayer are ready. Hopefully they have a good young pitching Core with Bello and Mata and can make a move for a Pablo Lopez type.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 6, 2022 13:01:34 GMT -5
Can he improve his D? If he's this bad right now, what is he going to be like in his 30s?
At the same time it could be your Manny Ramirez signing, the bats so good you don't care.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 6, 2022 19:13:35 GMT -5
Yes Canseco , because it’s not working for the Angels. They had the two best and nothing to show. Now Trout has to manage a back issue. That’s a nightmare you can never really fix a back.
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