If Soto IS next Trout/Mantle do Sox go all in for 10yr deal?

I don’t think the timing works. SD, whether they sign him or not, will hold him to the absolute end. If the Sox haven’t used most of their salary space by then, they’ll have endured 2 more bad years. I expect they’ll sign other guys before he hits the market and not be in on him.

I think it would make more sense to try re-signing Devers to a big deal (I think it would take something like 10/300 or 12/350) than to chase Soto a couple years from now for something like 10/450. A bunch of other teams will be interested in Soto, too, and you've got a year-plus of exclusive negotiating opportunity with Devers. If they were hitting free agency at the same time, maybe you roll the dice, but I don't think you can PLAN to let Devers walk (or trade him in 2023), let 2024 go by, and then hope that no other team can offer a better package in the winter of 2024 (and that the Padres can't sign him to an extension before that point either).

If it happened to play out that way (Devers leaves, no other huge free agent signings in the meantime, Soto really wants to test the market), I'd be game to try something bonkers for Soto. He's not Trout overall, but he's just such an absurd hitter. I think I'd try to go the route of offering something like 4/200 with the idea that I can make a couple of title runs and then the money is opened up around the time the wave of prospects are due for their paydays. Everyone is going to try offering lifetime deals, but maybe he'd be more interested in the flexibility of a sky-high AAV with another chance at free agency right around his peak.

I actually think the likeliest scenario (still unlikely, but likeliest) for Soto to end up in Boston would be if the Padres decide they can't/won't re-sign him at his asking price and then trade him in '24 as a rental.

The injury thing is exactly what keeps me from being all in on a 10 year deal. I like the idea of a massively over paid five-year deal, like with $45 or $50 million AAV. Then afterhis age 29 season, he is free to go sign someone for the rest of his life. The problem is, he will probably be looking for at least a 10 year deal, and more likely 15. I think 10 is the absolute limit, and the way the team protects itself is to give him an opt out after his age 29 or 30 season. Then if he wants more he can go get it and the team can be done with him. he and his agent may prefer that, or they may prefer a long-term deal like Bryce Harper got, setting the market, and meaning he doesn’t have to sell his local mansion and move into one of his other mansions or build a new one in 5 years. 😁

They at the very least need to be involved in the bidding. We'll see how he looks the next two seasons though and if he looks more like he did in 2021 or this year because while he's been very good this year he hasn't exactly been elite. It appears to me his defense is worrisome and he could potentially turn into a 40 mil DH if he doesn't get more consistent in the field. 

You may be able to blow somebody away with something 2/95, but that would be extremely dependent on the player's personality and appetite for risk. After all, one fastball to the wrist can mean there isn't another massive contract after the short deal. I like it as a strategy (and would try it with Soto if it's at all feasible) and I think it's going to become more common, but I get why a lot of players won't go for it.

As for a player opt-out in the middle of a long-term deal, that's considered a major benefit for the PLAYER, not the team. If you give Soto a giant 10 or 15 year deal with an opt-out after his age 30 season, you've got two likely scenarios: 1) he's still great and tests the market when the team would rather just keep him without further bidding; or 2) something goes wrong such that he won't get a better deal, in which case he declines the opt-out and the team gets saddled with the "bad" back-end of a megadeal. If you're going to go the "let's just get his peak" route, the play is the <5 year deal with a Scrooge McDuck AAV.

I'd love Soto in front of the Monster, but it definitely seems like a pipedream. I'd rather they take the more feasible route of signing Devers to an extension and competing around a core of Devers-Story-Casas (and then hopefully Mayer by 2024) for the rest of the '20s.

I know The opt out is ostensibly a player benefit, but if he still great at 30 and opts out, fine let him go unless you’re models really project him to be as good or nearly as good for the next 10 years. Because without PED‘s being re-introduced into the game, The vast majority of players will decline within two years of their 30th birthday, if not much sooner. and if your model says he want, then you have an exclusive extension period. Win-win. So even though it’s positioned, or thought of, as a player benefit that hurts the team if the player is still good, In my mind it’s a market inefficiency that only hurts the team if the player is injured or in a Pablo Sandoval level of decline. In which case you sign in for 10 years and that’s a sunk cost anyway. But, despite the benefits to the player, it also benefits the team benefits the team especially if it is in the age 30 or 31 season And the player is still productive. I don’t know why more people don’t see it this way. Decline is baked into this sport and most others. It’s predictable within a few years, and if you think you have a unicorn, then you have exclusive rights to extend the player. I love the opt out after 30. prove me wrong.

Well the opt out definitely hurts the team because the player only takes it if he’s good enough that he would get a bigger contract on the open market. If that’s the case, even if the team believes he’s going to decline for the rest of the deal, then instead of losing him for nothing the team could trade the rest of his contract at its current price and get additional value back.

They have to get in touch with Boras , so you basically give Xman money , Xman goodbye. Build your lineup with Soto and Devers. He also helps in outfield because we lack talent in OF.


I know he will be more than Xman but you have to sacrifice him and JDM.



Does anyone know if he is linked to any teams?

I tend to want to see the team build a more even roster with more emphasis on a solid rotation and pen. It’s always sexy to sign or trade for big names, but once a team gets a player like Machado you tend to forget about them. Also mega teams haven’t been proven yet to win. The 2001 Mariners won a 116 games after losing Arod, Griffey Jr. and Randy Johnson. The 2007 team was boring but professional and won. If we need another Soto type player to pair with Devers, then why not see what Atlanta wants for Acuna. After signing Olson and Riley to long term deals, They may have to deal Acuna at some point.

2004 with Schilling, Pedro, Manny and Foulke were pretty close to a "mega team." They were some of the more expensive players on the market for their positions at that time. Their value over-performers were Bill Mueller, Jason Varitek and David Ortiz.

Let’s not forget that Soto acts like a complete bitch on the field. I don’t want that guy on my squad. Pay our homegrown stars!