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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 14, 2023 15:19:07 GMT -5
It's possible. Bleis' exit velo numbers for a rookie ball guy are nuts, but there is definite correlation between age and EV. Looking at percentage of batted balls with Exit Velo 95 mph+ last year, min. 100 PA: 1. Rob Refsnyder, WOR, 48.0% 2. Triston Casas, WOR, 47.3% 3. Jarren Duran, WOR, 46.1% 4. Niko Kavadas, GRE, 44.9% 5. Franchy Cordero, WOR, 44.8% 6. Christin Stewart, WOR, 42.6% 7. Enmanuel Valdez, WOR, 41.7% 8. Niko Kavadas, SAL, 40.7% 9. Jaylin Davis, WOR, 40.6% 10. Miguel Bleis, FCL, 40.0% That's everyone at 40% or above. The next highest FCL guy with 100+ PA was Luis Ravelo at 20.5%. (Although it's worth noting there were only 8 such players. Romero, Anthony, and Brannon were also above 30% but in sample sizes of 43, 40, and 15 PA, respectively.) I also note that his in-zone whiff rate of 13% was the best among any hitter whose percentage was 20% or higher. The one thing he was worse than most of these players on was his success rate against offspeed and spin, but given his age, that's reasonable when comparing him to guys with 6 years on him. TL;DR, when Bleis swings and it's in the zone he hits it. Hard. Out of curiosity, where did Kavadas come in at Portland. I see him there for his other two 2022 stops, but obviously Portland was his toughest challenge. Also I think he ended up with precisely 100 Portland PAs. 30.8%. Still not bad but obviously an enormous drop. More concerning was his OPS against fastballs 94+ A: 1.211 A+: .595 AA: .261 |
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Post by seamus on Feb 10, 2023 21:35:12 GMT -5
I enjoyed the NESN piece about Bleis. I feel really reassured that Bleis' issue isn't free-swinging so much as recognizing secondaries. That's definitely something much easier to project a guy improving on. |
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Post by patford on Feb 11, 2023 22:25:20 GMT -5
I enjoyed the NESN piece about Bleis. I feel really reassured that Bleis' issue isn't free-swinging so much as recognizing secondaries. That's definitely something much easier to project a guy improving on. I also enjoyed it. I just wish I hadn't misinterpreted Chris Hatfield's tweet and then spent 10 min. looking for the "must watch" video before it dawned on me he meant Bleis is simply a must watch prospect.  |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 13, 2023 19:50:37 GMT -5
Fantastic article, kudos to the writer for seeking Ian's opinion. They nailed it.
I do understand what they are saying regarding learning to hit off-speed, nonetheless, when I see that, my thoughts go to Jason Place. Let's root for probability here.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 18, 2023 22:23:21 GMT -5
Might be time to keep this at the front page.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Apr 18, 2023 22:29:30 GMT -5
I guess he's learning to hit offspeed pitches because he's not being thrown fastballs
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 18, 2023 22:32:54 GMT -5
I guess he's learning to hit offspeed pitches because he's not being thrown fastballs 3-3 tonight with a double and a steal. He's a hurricane heading over warm water. |
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Post by bosoxnation on Apr 18, 2023 22:34:51 GMT -5
number 1 prospect. Sorry Mayer
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Post by semperfisox on Apr 19, 2023 5:02:48 GMT -5
Haven’t been this excited about a prospect since Bogaerts.
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Post by chrisfromnc on Apr 19, 2023 6:21:13 GMT -5
Haven’t been this excited about a prospect since Bogaerts. He certainly is a fun guy to follow. Your post got me thinking of my favorite prospects over the years. Hanley was the first guy I was trying to become familiar with before AAA. At various times I was super enthusiastic about Jose Iglesias, Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Buchholz, Xander, Mookie, and Anderson Espinoza. (apologies for the thread drift) |
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Post by lonborgski on Apr 19, 2023 11:46:39 GMT -5
Haven’t been this excited about a prospect since Bogaerts. He certainly is a fun guy to follow. Your post got me thinking of my favorite prospects over the years. Hanley was the first guy I was trying to become familiar with before AAA. At various times I was super enthusiastic about Jose Iglesias, Westmoreland, Casey Kelly, Buchholz, Xander, Mookie, and Anderson Espinoza. (apologies for the thread drift) I remember looking at the minor league statistics at the back of the Sporting News in the summer of 1973 and being impressed with the numbers for one Jim Rice at Bristol in the Eastern League--been following Sox prospects ever since. |
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 19, 2023 20:24:01 GMT -5
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 22, 2023 20:32:49 GMT -5
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cdj
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Posts: 14,020 
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2023 7:34:53 GMT -5
That’s such an impressive piece of hitting for a teen in full season ball. Hitters count but not trying to do too much, knows he’s got a vacancy on that side with the runner going and waits for the ball to get deep before driving it through the hole. Fundamentally sound baseball. That was textbook. |
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 24, 2023 19:45:25 GMT -5
Jackson Holliday just got promoted by the O's. I know his development plan is different from Bleis, but no reason to think if Bleis keeps this up he couldn't force a promotion to Greenville.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2023 19:48:31 GMT -5
Jackson Holliday just got promoted by the O's. I know his development plan is different from Bleis, but no reason to think if Bleis keeps this up he couldn't force a promotion to Salem. What Bleis is doing in Salem as a teen is definitely a good sign but he isn’t putting up monster numbers- Holliday wasn’t being challenged. He’s got video game numbers, his OBP isn’t too far off from Bleis OPS (it’s like .520 vs .660) |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 24, 2023 19:50:27 GMT -5
Jackson Holliday just got promoted by the O's. I know his development plan is different from Bleis, but no reason to think if Bleis keeps this up he couldn't force a promotion to Salem. Bleis’ OPS is under .700 so he’s not even remotely ready for a promotion |
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 24, 2023 20:07:03 GMT -5
Jackson Holliday just got promoted by the O's. I know his development plan is different from Bleis, but no reason to think if Bleis keeps this up he couldn't force a promotion to Salem. Bleis’ OPS is under .700 so he’s not even remotely ready for a promotion He's played in 12 games and he's gotten a hit in 9. If that turns into 30 out of 40, that's looking at developing into an elite hit tool which was one of his only flaws. I'd bet good money the Sox value his hit tool when evaluating a promotion more than slug simply because Bleis will get bigger and stronger over the next two seasons and that shouldn't hinder his development. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 24, 2023 20:29:43 GMT -5
Bleis’ OPS is under .700 so he’s not even remotely ready for a promotion He's played in 12 games and he's gotten a hit in 9. If that turns into 30 out of 40, that's looking at developing into an elite hit tool which was one of his only flaws. I'd bet good money the Sox value his hit tool when evaluating a promotion more than slug simply because Bleis will get bigger and stronger over the next two seasons and that shouldn't hinder his development. He’s also got a 27% K rate and a 4.5% BB rate. Again, nothing I’m worried about at all- he just has plenty to work on in Salem before we even talk about promoting him aggressively. Him playing in Salem (and holding his own!) is already quite aggressive Watching his hit tool come around is definitely the most important development to track tho, I agree |
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Post by fdrnewdeal on Apr 24, 2023 22:48:27 GMT -5
yeah, there is absolutely no reason to promote him right now. He's holding his own as a teenager in a super-aggressive placement. Beyond the fact that he's facing pitchers who kind of know how to throw breaking balls for strikes for the first time, he's also acclimating to a new country and new culture.
Him being successful is great and I agree that folks shouldn't be worried about the lack of slugging, given what we know about his elite exit velocities last season. That said, they don't need to push him until he's forcing the issue. He's not doing that, yet.
Bleis has a wOBA of 88 whereas Holliday was 225 (he was walking as often as striking out, while hitting for power). Given Holliday's background, I think it's safe to assume he's had access to top-level coaching his entire life. It's okay for him to be more advanced than Bleis at this point. It would be crazy for him not to be, given that they're both elite athletes.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 25, 2023 4:25:51 GMT -5
Miguel Bleis is doing exactly what he should be doing for a young man in low A. He's making contact, improving his defense, learning to play a long season, and working on his approach at the plate. If nothing else changed and he matures he would grow into some power. I would have no problem pushing Bleis up to high A, but towards the end of the year, maybe middle if he really just takes off. Even if he starts mashing, I'd want him to get some sustained success for a few months still.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 25, 2023 6:37:51 GMT -5
The Red Sox are not going to promote Bleis based his number of hits.
In his case, things like how he's hitting against breaking balls and offspeed pitches will be key. Chase rate and in-zone whiff rate are also generally applicable. Presumably he's still destroying fastballs based on the anecdotal evidence but how he's faring against velocity is something that gets looked at as well.
Don't have those yet for this year, but I will say that there is absolutely nothing about his line that suggests a promotion is anywhere close. Holliday, by comparison, was hitting .392/.523/.667 with 14 BB and 12 K in 65 PA after being selected first overall in the draft and getting a small taste of that level last year. Bleis is hitting .279/.318/.344 with 3 BB to 18 K in 66 PA. I'm not sure how there's any comparison except their age.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Apr 25, 2023 19:30:12 GMT -5
First HR
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on May 9, 2023 9:47:37 GMT -5
Just wrapped up the latest BA Future Projection pod. Was excited because in the show notes it mentioned they were going to talk about Bleis. Unfortunately, he was in their disappointments category. Their reasoning was that he wasn't showing any consistency with his hard hit ABs. They squashed their prediction of him being this years Jackson Chourio. Hopefully we see an uptick in hard hit from Bleis to put an end to those questions.
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Post by seamus on May 9, 2023 10:12:14 GMT -5
Kid put up a .700 OPS in his first month in A-ball, probably the first time seeing half-decent breaking balls. Labeling him a disappointment seems a bit harsh when this is probably what the realistic 40th-50th percentile outcome would have been. If he was posting a 40% K rate, weaving around in the outfield like a drunken sailor, and struggling to hit the ball in the air at all, sure, but that's nowhere near where he's at. I don't think he's behind schedule - he's just not tearing up the timetable the way the occasional unicorn does.
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