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8/12-8/14 Red Sox vs. Yankees Series Thread
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Post by station13 on Aug 14, 2022 23:21:29 GMT -5
It was 2017 when we had Doug Fister, right? I recall him pitching a quickie game to beat the MFYs. I think it was a Saturday afternoon. This one reminded me of that one. Porcello threw a 1-hitter against the Yankees in 2018, game finished in 2:15. Had friends in from out of town for the game, couldn't believe how short their Fenway experience was. Where is Porecello now? He just seems to fall off the face of Earth.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,195
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2022 23:36:31 GMT -5
Porcello threw a 1-hitter against the Yankees in 2018, game finished in 2:15. Had friends in from out of town for the game, couldn't believe how short their Fenway experience was. Where is Porecello now? He just seems to fall off the face of Earth. Probs retired to the farm
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 14, 2022 23:58:10 GMT -5
Nice clean crisp win. Wacha was fantastic.
First real series win if the year against an AL East opponent, as I dont count the win against Baltimore to be a series given that it was just a single game.
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Post by benzinger on Aug 14, 2022 23:58:50 GMT -5
All that does is make me question the validity of WAR, in general, because this is the worst season I’ve seen from Xander in at least the last 5 years. He's 8th in the majors in BA, 12th in OBP, and both are the second best of his career. His wRC+ has been incredibly consistent for the last 5 years - 133, 141, 130, 130, 132. And the defense is visibly improved.
The homers, RBIs, and WPA are down, so I can understand why people feel like he's had fewer big moments. But the WAR number is legit.
Yes, he’s definitely getting on base. I can’t argue that. But his SLG and OPS have both declined for 3 years in a row. 48 RBI’s from your #3 hitter? I know RBI’s are considered an outdated stat, but WTF is that? He’s morphed into a table-setter that is miscast as a power threat.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2022 1:25:52 GMT -5
Devers making hard contact it’s only a matter of time Good call! I've been on a bit of a roll here ... called the HR off of Whitlock semi-seriously, called Kutter's's bad game two starts ago just before looking up the play-by-play online, saying, "man, Crawford's overdue for a bad outing."
As soon as Pham reached I said "Devers is going yard here." Tone of voice = "sun will rise tomorrow."
After it happened I figured out how my subconscious figured that out (if in fact it did). When a guy is 4 for his last 41, opposing teams know that, and they know how to attack the slump-specific weaknesses. The starting pitcher's going to stick to that game plan even if the slumper has lined a rocket off of him last time up.
And my brain knew that Devers knows that and would be looking for certain pitches in certain locations, and most of all I had a strong sense that Raffy had fixed whatever mechanics were messed-up.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 15, 2022 6:53:13 GMT -5
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 15, 2022 7:45:27 GMT -5
Next 3 games will tell much about their ability to make a run. Gotta beat up on the lesser teams. We'll get more important players back.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 15, 2022 8:30:13 GMT -5
Explain to me Bogaerts greatly out performing his expected wOBA for eight straight years? Never once not out performing it and averaging a .357 wOBA versus a .329 expected. Explain 2015-2017 a below average expected wOBA that produced 12.9 offensive bwar? Along with two SS awards. It certainly didn't predict just luck and he'd get worse. Which seems to be the point you keep making, even though expected wOBA is backwards looking and not forward looking. Now an expected number that never once has been right with Bogaerts is going to determine his next contract? If this is what Bloom is doing, it explains a lot. I don't think he is using xwOBA as a predictive stat here(I think we can all agree it is not). But going into a contract season and seeing his lowest xwOBA, xwOBACON, and wOBA since 2017 is going to negatively affect his market. A guy with questions of sticking at shortstop is now showing some decline offensively. That will no doubt make the Red Sox and other teams more cautious going into free agency. I'd ask why he would keep using xwOBA then? Sure that's correct if you basically look at just August where he's been horrible. Four straight months witn OPS above .800 then this month. Is that a decline or a cold streak? Even worrying about his power seems a little crazy because he's been up and down his entire career, only one with back to back 20 HR seasons. Yet why keep using only xwOBA? I'd also note before yesterday's game his OPS+ was equal to his last two seasons, which tells me offense and HRs are down this year accross Baseball. That was even with his dreadful August.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 15, 2022 9:08:30 GMT -5
X has been a great player, but if I were a GM, I would not sign him to play SS. If a GM sign X, where do you play him? Yeah it's a bit tricky if the defense falls off, but I think people are kind of overthinking this a little. He's a 6 WAR player this season..
The reason the WAR is so high is that he improved his defense a lot. Meanwhile his power is down for reasons that are unclear. (He'd be in the MVP conversation if he had 20 homers right now.) But I doubt the power is in decline; that would be a weird thing to happen to a 29 year old who shows no other signs of decline in his game. I think the defensive improvement is more significant - it shows he's not in decline in an area where you really might expect that of a 29 year old. Of course he won't defy gravity forever...
All this is to say: I think it's sort of strange that the sentiment has taken hold here that he's having a down year.
This is where I'm coming from when I say this, albeit with the huge exception of his defense taking a step forward. Pretty much every relevant offensive statistic has been worse this year than his past few years. 33rd percentile xSLG in particular is a massive and worrying drop in a walk year. If he has an injury that should heal up in the offseason, that's one thing. If not...
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Post by e on Aug 15, 2022 9:23:44 GMT -5
I don't think he is using xwOBA as a predictive stat here(I think we can all agree it is not). But going into a contract season and seeing his lowest xwOBA, xwOBACON, and wOBA since 2017 is going to negatively affect his market. A guy with questions of sticking at shortstop is now showing some decline offensively. That will no doubt make the Red Sox and other teams more cautious going into free agency. I'd ask why he would keep using xwOBA then? Sure that's correct if you basically look at just August where he's been horrible. Four straight months witn OPS above .800 then this month. Is that a decline or a cold streak? Even worrying about his power seems a little crazy because he's been up and down his entire career, only one with back to back 20 HR seasons. Yet why keep using only xwOBA? I'd also note before yesterday's game his OPS+ was equal to his last two seasons, which tells me offense and HRs are down this year accross Baseball. That was even with his dreadful August. You can use xwOBA because in comparison to past years, it has declined. He wasn't using xwOBA to question the legitimacy of his wOBA, he was using it in comparison to past xwOBA. I think everyone agrees all of this could just be noise, and Xander very well tap back into his power next year, but there are many fair places to question if his offensive performance this year is sustainable(statistics I mentioned in my previous post, barrel%, crazy high average on groundballs). I think I should end this by saying I want the Red Sox to resign Xander. Beyond just being a fan and wanting to extend a great player, I don't think you could get a shortstop who could match or exceed Xander's value at a lower cost. I do think he'll bounce back next year(albeit return to the mean defensively). Just think it is important to note the areas for caution in his play this year.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 15, 2022 10:30:07 GMT -5
I'd ask why he would keep using xwOBA then? Sure that's correct if you basically look at just August where he's been horrible. Four straight months witn OPS above .800 then this month. Is that a decline or a cold streak? Even worrying about his power seems a little crazy because he's been up and down his entire career, only one with back to back 20 HR seasons. Yet why keep using only xwOBA? I'd also note before yesterday's game his OPS+ was equal to his last two seasons, which tells me offense and HRs are down this year accross Baseball. That was even with his dreadful August. You can use xwOBA because in comparison to past years, it has declined. He wasn't using xwOBA to question the legitimacy of his wOBA, he was using it in comparison to past xwOBA. I think everyone agrees all of this could just be noise, and Xander very well tap back into his power next year, but there are many fair places to question if his offensive performance this year is sustainable(statistics I mentioned in my previous post, barrel%, crazy high average on groundballs). I think I should end this by saying I want the Red Sox to resign Xander. Beyond just being a fan and wanting to extend a great player, I don't think you could get a shortstop who could match or exceed Xander's value at a lower cost. I do think he'll bounce back next year(albeit return to the mean defensively). Just think it is important to note the areas for caution in his play this year. I think you give hin way too much credit. When he keeps just posting his xwOBA only, that's exactly the sense I get. He thinks the wOBA is luck, yet as I pointed out xwOBA has never done a good job of measuring Bogaerts. So it's the last stat you should be using. Even then before his recent cold streak there was no decline in his wOBA, even now it's minor. He could easily finish the season on par with the last few years. The only stat that shows Bogaerts with a massive decline is xwOBA, it basically shows him as an average hitter. I do agree there are areas that are fair to question, repeatedly just posting his xwOBA as if that's the holy grail stat isn't one of them. I say this as a guy who would have traded him and did a fire sale.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 15, 2022 10:35:23 GMT -5
I just saw a headline where Shaughnessy declared the Sox season is "lost."
Almost a guarantee of a winning streak, if not a legit World Series run.
Strap in, everyone!
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Aug 15, 2022 11:26:05 GMT -5
X has never been a power hitter. Heck, Lindor had better Slugging numbers and where is he now ?
His lack of power is being magnified by JDM's power collapse (and others). It is noticeable, for sure, but it isn't his game, just a complement to his skill set. The fact that he has to hit where he is right now is more a statement of who else on the team isn't providing power.
Putting that onus on him, besides every thing else he provides to the club.....well, I am skeptical. Bloom tried to address it at the deadline a bit. If Pham and Hosmer can put some power into it, it will be less noticeable.
Lack of power isn't necessarily corollary from the metrics. He could be injured for all we know.
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Post by e on Aug 15, 2022 12:25:05 GMT -5
You can use xwOBA because in comparison to past years, it has declined. He wasn't using xwOBA to question the legitimacy of his wOBA, he was using it in comparison to past xwOBA. I think everyone agrees all of this could just be noise, and Xander very well tap back into his power next year, but there are many fair places to question if his offensive performance this year is sustainable(statistics I mentioned in my previous post, barrel%, crazy high average on groundballs). I think I should end this by saying I want the Red Sox to resign Xander. Beyond just being a fan and wanting to extend a great player, I don't think you could get a shortstop who could match or exceed Xander's value at a lower cost. I do think he'll bounce back next year(albeit return to the mean defensively). Just think it is important to note the areas for caution in his play this year. I think you give hin way too much credit. When he keeps just posting his xwOBA only, that's exactly the sense I get. He thinks the wOBA is luck, yet as I pointed out xwOBA has never done a good job of measuring Bogaerts. So it's the last stat you should be using. Even then before his recent cold streak there was no decline in his wOBA, even now it's minor. He could easily finish the season on par with the last few years. The only stat that shows Bogaerts with a massive decline is xwOBA, it basically shows him as an average hitter. I do agree there are areas that are fair to question, repeatedly just posting his xwOBA as if that's the holy grail stat isn't one of them. I say this as a guy who would have traded him and did a fire sale. I didn't realize wxOBA was posted multiple times and used as the only statistic to question Xander's offense. In no way do I defend the use of xwOBA as an end all be all to a player's offensive performance. Overall, it seems we both agree that we cannot question the sustainability of a player's offense based off of a statistic that was never created to be predictive.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 15, 2022 13:23:45 GMT -5
Next 3 games will tell much about their ability to make a run. Gotta beat up on the lesser teams. We'll get more important players back. Yes! Win the series against the Cubs, KC, Balt when they were all crap and Cin and they'd be leading the WC.
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TearsIn04
Veteran
Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Aug 15, 2022 13:42:30 GMT -5
You can use xwOBA because in comparison to past years, it has declined. He wasn't using xwOBA to question the legitimacy of his wOBA, he was using it in comparison to past xwOBA. I think everyone agrees all of this could just be noise, and Xander very well tap back into his power next year, but there are many fair places to question if his offensive performance this year is sustainable(statistics I mentioned in my previous post, barrel%, crazy high average on groundballs). I think I should end this by saying I want the Red Sox to resign Xander. Beyond just being a fan and wanting to extend a great player, I don't think you could get a shortstop who could match or exceed Xander's value at a lower cost. I do think he'll bounce back next year(albeit return to the mean defensively). Just think it is important to note the areas for caution in his play this year. I think you give hin way too much credit. When he keeps just posting his xwOBA only, that's exactly the sense I get. He thinks the wOBA is luck, yet as I pointed out xwOBA has never done a good job of measuring Bogaerts. So it's the last stat you should be using. Even then before his recent cold streak there was no decline in his wOBA, even now it's minor. He could easily finish the season on par with the last few years. The only stat that shows Bogaerts with a massive decline is xwOBA, it basically shows him as an average hitter. I do agree there are areas that are fair to question, repeatedly just posting his xwOBA as if that's the holy grail stat isn't one of them. I say this as a guy who would have traded him and did a fire sale. Just catching up with this now. First, I have no idea what you mean in saying that "he keps posting" X's xwOBA. From what I can tell by quickly reviewing my posts and using the control-F function, I last mentioned it two nights ago. Before that, you'd have to go back to Aug. 10 and that was in a quick response to a poster who pointed out that X has benefitted from a high BABIP this year. I'm sure I've made more juvenile jokes about Reese McGuire than mentions of X's xwOBA the past five days. I also never said xwOBA is the only stat that counts and I certainly never used the term "holy grail." But it's also not a meaningless stat unless you want to totally dismiss quality of contact. My overarching point is that I wouldn't be surprised if X's market is more tepid than some think (and more tepid than Boras hopes). While he's still a tremendous player, he appears to be a different kind of player this year than in the past. Nine HRs and 49 RBI's are light for a middle-of-the-order hitter on a good team. And yes, I know we're all supposed to be reflexively and indignantly dismissive of any mention of RBIs. But his barrel rate and EV numbers are lower than they've been since 2017. His hard hit rate is his second lowest in that time (though, in fairness, that number has not fallen off the table). Put that all together and the view from my couch indicates he might be evolving into more of a table setter than a run producer. I emphasize "might be" because things could change dramatically over the last seven weeks of this season or his numbers could regress to his pre-2022 norms next year. That's baseball Suzyn. But I think his 2022 offensive performance, barring a power surge between now and the end of the season, could give teams pause about paying $30M in AAV for a lot of years. I am also skeptical that teams are going to buy into his 2022 defensive numbers as indicative of actual improvement and not just due to the squishiness of defensive metrics, especially in a one-season sample. His UZR/150 is well over twice as high as his previous best year (not counting 2013 when he appeared in only 18 games for the World Champs). On the positive side, X remains a foundational player and has been ridiculously consistent in some performance measures. His wRC+ for the last three years: 130, 130, and 130. Unreal. In the two years before 2020, he was 141 and 133. I hope the RS re-sign him and am highly critical of Bloom for not making a serious attempt (based on what we know from press reports). I'd go as high as six years/$25M in AAV and that's coming from someone who is pretty cautious and stingy about giving out big contracts.
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bigmarty58
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Post by bigmarty58 on Aug 15, 2022 16:19:28 GMT -5
Red Sox ownership has to decide if it is in their best interest to keep taking the fans for granted. I know we have had some injury issues this season in particular but ownership has been not quite right for some time starting with letting Mookie walk. Anyone else feel this way?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 15, 2022 17:20:50 GMT -5
He's 8th in the majors in BA, 12th in OBP, and both are the second best of his career. His wRC+ has been incredibly consistent for the last 5 years - 133, 141, 130, 130, 132. And the defense is visibly improved.
The homers, RBIs, and WPA are down, so I can understand why people feel like he's had fewer big moments. But the WAR number is legit.
Yes, he’s definitely getting on base. I can’t argue that. But his SLG and OPS have both declined for 3 years in a row. 48 RBI’s from your #3 hitter? I know RBI’s are considered an outdated stat, but WTF is that? He’s morphed into a table-setter that is miscast as a power threat. Yes, HRs and RBIs are down….the Red Sox do NOT need to spend $30,000,000 per year on a ‘table setter’. The defense is up THIS year, but what about the next 8-10 years. This year is irrelevant to what the future 8-10 look like, and if the power is declining what are we paying for?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2022 17:32:27 GMT -5
About last night ... a Quora question and my answer.
Was the ending of Drew Rasmussen’s perfect game bid against the Orioles one of the worst cases of how a potential perfect game ended in the 9th inning?
Eric M. Van Chair, SABR Science and Baseball Committee
I’d say it was one of the fairest outcomes. The second batter of the game, Adley Rutschman, barreled a 396′ fly ball, exit velocity 102.4, hit probability 76%., the highest of any hard-hit batted ball of the game for either side. He hit it to straightaway CF.
Rasmussen didn’t eve have the best pitching performance of the day.
That would belong to the Red Sox’ Michael Wacha, and it’s not even close. He was facing the Yankees, average hitter in the lineup 104.6 wRC+, versus 93.1 for the O’s. Let’s start with how each pitcher handled the two best hitters they were facing, who were also the four best hitters in either lineup.
Rutschman has a 126 wRC+. Besides that first-inning blast, Rasmussen got him on grounders of 92.4 and 77.4 (hit probabilities of 21% and 11%).
Anthony Santander also has a 126 wRC+. Rasmussen got him on two flyballs of 98.4 and 86.3 mph (21% and 1% hits)
Not bad.
Anthony Rizzo has a 136 wRC+. Wacha fanned him swinging on 4 pitches, got him on a 71.8 grounder (25% hit), and fanned him again swinging on six pitches.
And of course there’s Aaron Judge. Judge, with the 202 wRC+ coming into the game.
Wacha gets him on three pitches, on a 71.6 mph grounder (5% hit). He fans him on six pitches, all the strikes swinging—it takes him six because he likely got squeezed on the fifth. It only takes him four pitches to fan him again, swinging again, and on a pitch up and in where Judge has ridiculously good numbers.
Wacha fanned 9 of the 24 hitters he faced, all but one swinging; Rasumussen fanned 7 of 28 (also all but one swinging). Wacha’s K rate was 50% higher.
Wacha was actually perfect through 4.2, at which point he had allowed 0.7 expected hits, a mark exceeded by Rasmussen two batter into the game. He had given up just one hard-hit ball, a sky-high fly to Josh Donaldson (104.9 but 15% hit). He lost it when he gave up a 73.8 mph bloop single to Miguel Andujar (69% hit). He followed that with his only walk of the day, and in fact missed the zone with 4 or 5 of his first 7 pitches out of the stretch—but that’s not uncommon for someone who has gotten that far into the game without needing to.
In contrast, Mateo’s double was smoked at 100.3 mph (47% hit). At that point, Rasmussen had already given up 3.8 expected hits.
Rasmussen’s average exit velocity allowed was 90.0 mph (median 93.1), and in the 3rd he allowed another hard-hit ball that was a likely hit (100.1 mph, 62% hit), to Tyler Nevin.
Wacha’s average exit velocity was 79.6. His median was 72.8 mph, and Rasmussen held precisely one batter to less than that. The only hard-hit ball that was a likely hit was in the 7th, but to the next-to-last batter he faced, Gleyber Torres, who smashed a 108.6 mph liner with an 86% hit chance, right to CF. But he was clearly tiring, having thrown 85 pitches.
Why would he be tired at that point? Because this was his first start since June 28, and had just 2 rehab starts, neither of which lasted 5 innings.
Don’t confuse the combination of good pitching and good luck with dominance. The former can be suspenseful, but only the latter is thrilling.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 15, 2022 19:22:01 GMT -5
Yes, he’s definitely getting on base. I can’t argue that. But his SLG and OPS have both declined for 3 years in a row. 48 RBI’s from your #3 hitter? I know RBI’s are considered an outdated stat, but WTF is that? He’s morphed into a table-setter that is miscast as a power threat. Yes, HRs and RBIs are down….the Red Sox do NOT need to spend $30,000,000 per year on a ‘table setter’. The defense is up THIS year, but what about the next 8-10 years. This year is irrelevant to what the future 8-10 look like, and if the power is declining what are we paying for? I think you’ll find that even the staunchest Bogaerts defenders on this board aren’t advocating for an 8-10 year deal.
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