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Post by bosoxkc on Aug 14, 2022 13:12:04 GMT -5
Seems to me that there is an obvious portion that checks all boxes. Judge would be the outfield answer for years moving forward, then moving to DH. Heâs in the kind of shape that doesnât look like itâll break down over time (see Devers, Raffy). Bat is self explanatory.
All weâre talking is a 7/280 or 8/320. Added bonus it keeps him from MFY. If (likely) we donât resign X, with all salaries coming off (JD, Eovaldi, X, Kiké, Hill, Wacha) that would be easy $$. I think 8/320 would get it done. Thatâs the kind of defense and 3rd in the lineup production that moves the needle.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,204 
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2022 13:27:12 GMT -5
During the first game of the series I was thinking of a 7/280 deal myself
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Post by briam on Aug 14, 2022 14:13:34 GMT -5
I’d be incredibly nervous paying 30 million a year for a 6’7” corner outfield, with an injury history, for his age 31-37 seasons.
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Post by dibs on Aug 14, 2022 14:25:29 GMT -5
No problem taking a chance here. There are always reasons not to do something. The idea of Judge and Raffy back to back may challenge Manny and Papi. I don’t have a problem paying elite talent. I do have a problem overpaying mediocrity.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 14, 2022 14:30:45 GMT -5
No problem taking a chance here. There are always reasons not to do something. The idea of Judge and Raffy back to back May challenge Manny and Papi. I don’t have a problem paying elite talent. I do have a problem overpaying mediocrity. I don't think the Sox will commit huge dollars and long term for both Devers and Judge, as both might wind up DHes by the back part of their contracts. I also think that Judge, who might be the legit single season HR record holder, doesn't go for less than 40 million annually and might go for closer to 400 million than 300 mlllion. Some team will go out and give him 9 or 10 years, computing DH time during the back half of his deal. I'd be surprised if he signed for less than 350 million. |
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 14, 2022 16:21:08 GMT -5
Whoever signs Judge after this season seems destined for a bad outcome. He's going to be asking for a king's ransom and even if the bat doesn't fall off I don't see his body holding up over the deal.
I've actually been thrilled he's done so well this year because I fully expect him to sign in NY. Now he'll get to sign a much richer deal, and therefore sink their team even more at the back part of that contract.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,907
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Post by nomar on Aug 14, 2022 16:25:34 GMT -5
Whoever signs Judge after this season seems destined for a bad outcome. He's going to be asking for a king's ransom and even if the bat doesn't fall off I don't see his body holding up over the deal. I've actually been thrilled he's done so well this year because I fully expect him to sign in NY. Now he'll get to sign a much richer deal, and therefore sink their team even more at the back part of that contract. Yeah I think the risk is too high too, but I don’t blame people for falling for the temptation because he hits the snot out of the ball and is a good guy. There’s just a lot of health risk, little long term defensive potential, and a huge price tag. |
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Post by jawnvalentin on Aug 14, 2022 16:26:31 GMT -5
Judge only has a .645 career OPS at Fenway, which shocked me.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2022 16:49:26 GMT -5
1. The bat and arm are undeniable when he's healthy. But, since 2017 he's had less than 500 PAs in all but two seasons - though this will likely be his third to exceed that level. This is his walk year, and he looks to be having a career year. The projections at Fangraphs for the next two years have him slipping back to sub-500 PA seasons.
If they could get him on a 4-year deal, I'd go all in, but the decline, given his injury history, will not be kind. I keep thinking of the Giancarolo Stanton deal and how that's played out.
2. If we look at this in, say, a 3-5 year block, there'd be a huge commitment of dollars to sign Judge. Would the Red Sox do that and Devers? They did in 2003-11 - having more than one player on the team who was getting top 5 dollars for his postion. Not so much lately.
Also, if they won't commit to more than 1 contract over 35M AAV, who do you prioritize? Just in the next two years, you'll have players such as Devers, Bogaerts, Aranado (opt out), Judge, Ohtani, Soto, deGrom, Verlander, Scherzer, Bregman and a few others. Where do you spend it?
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2022 16:50:32 GMT -5
Judge only has a .645 career OPS at Fenway, which shocked me. Is that because the Sox pitchers have been effective at pitching to him, or because they don't have a little league right field? |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 14, 2022 16:53:32 GMT -5
Judge only has a .645 career OPS at Fenway, which shocked me. Is that because the Sox pitchers have been effective at pitching to him, or because they don't have a little league right field? Sox pitchers pitch him down in the zone. Not sure why everybody doesn't. |
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 14, 2022 17:05:09 GMT -5
If you like the Giancarlo contract then you'll like the Aaron Judge one.
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 14, 2022 17:12:03 GMT -5
I’d be incredibly nervous paying 30 million a year for a 6’7” corner outfield, with an injury history, for his age 31-37 seasons. A 6’7 generational power hitter who hit over 50 home runs twice despite having a 399’ left field wall. He has amazing ability to pull the ball and would transition to a 310-379’ green monster. His doubles and BA would skyrocket. And he may hit 60 home runs here |
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Post by soxfan511 on Aug 14, 2022 17:13:05 GMT -5
Judge only has a .645 career OPS at Fenway, which shocked me. Is that because the Sox pitchers have been effective at pitching to him, or because they don't have a little league right field? We have a short huge green monster which pull happy right handed hitters can eat alive for doubles and home runs. |
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Post by briam on Aug 14, 2022 18:55:58 GMT -5
I’d be incredibly nervous paying 30 million a year for a 6’7” corner outfield, with an injury history, for his age 31-37 seasons. A 6’7 generational power hitter who hit over 50 home runs twice despite having a 399’ left field wall. He has amazing ability to pull the ball and would transition to a 310-379’ green monster. His doubles and BA would skyrocket. And he may hit 60 home runs here And his body might deteriorate as he ages past his prime because he’s 6’7” carrying 270 lbs… |
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 14, 2022 19:18:53 GMT -5
I’d be incredibly nervous paying 30 million a year for a 6’7” corner outfield, with an injury history, for his age 31-37 seasons. A 6’7 generational power hitter who hit over 50 home runs twice despite having a 399’ left field wall. He has amazing ability to pull the ball and would transition to a 310-379’ green monster. His doubles and BA would skyrocket. And he may hit 60 home runs here 399' to left center. Yankee stadium's LF is pretty average depth and its RF is tiny. Judge would have had 48 HR if all of his games were in Yankee Stadium this year but only 44 in they were all in Fenway. |
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Post by taiwansox on Aug 14, 2022 19:36:57 GMT -5
A 6’7 generational power hitter who hit over 50 home runs twice despite having a 399’ left field wall. He has amazing ability to pull the ball and would transition to a 310-379’ green monster. His doubles and BA would skyrocket. And he may hit 60 home runs here 399' to left center. Yankee stadium's LF is pretty average depth and its RF is tiny. Judge would have had 48 HR if all of his games were in Yankee Stadium this year but only 44 in they were all in Fenway. 44 is still more than double JDM and Bogey combined…😭 |
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 14, 2022 20:04:58 GMT -5
Because his contract will be stupid and not worth it.
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Post by notstarboard on Aug 14, 2022 20:39:52 GMT -5
399' to left center. Yankee stadium's LF is pretty average depth and its RF is tiny. Judge would have had 48 HR if all of his games were in Yankee Stadium this year but only 44 in they were all in Fenway. 44 is still more than double JDM and Bogey combined…😭 Lol yep, it's been brutal T_T |
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Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 10:03:21 GMT -5
He's been lousy in Fenway while still being good against Sox pitching in New York, so I do think it's fair to look at whether or not there's something about the park that compromises his performance (maybe he doesn't like the batter's eye, or the monster creates a subconscious incentive that messes with his approach or mechanics slightly).
I wouldn't want Judge at the 10/350 or whatever absurd number it's going to be because there's just so few precedents for 12-foot tall goliaths that we have no clue how he's going to age, but it's usually safer to assume that players are more like milk than wine. If you told me that he could be had for 8/260, sure, you take that gamble if you think the Fenway thing is either a fluke or something that can be corrected if it's his home park. But somebody is going to offer to buy Jupiter and name it after him, so I think you pivot to Nimmo or some other free agent while other big spenders make their pitches to Judge.
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Post by manfred on Aug 15, 2022 11:40:42 GMT -5
I’m not saying I want Judge, but when Mookie was here, people said, well, a guy that small will break down. Now the argument is a guy that big will break down. Maybe people just don’t want yo give long contracts.
There are clearly guys who are huge stars who eventually get massive deals somewhere. I think the question is: do you need them? That is, can a team say “at some point, we are just out on the top guys” but compete by putting together a roster with lower cost guys spread around?
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 15, 2022 11:48:02 GMT -5
I try to imagine a scenario where Judge was drafted, developed, currently playing for Boston, and about to hit FA. Not everyone, but there would be a large vocal crowd of "we have to resign Judge", at the very least he'd be on the same tier desire as Bogaerts and Devers.
Given that, he's a premium player, who plays the outfield, and we desperately need outfielders there's no reason to not at least put our hat in the ring and make a competitive bid. There's a big risk in signing a player like Judge, that's the risk you take if you want premium players outside of developing them. Sometimes it's the wrong guy, if the FO went big one year sooner, we likely would have signed Scherzer over Price long term once upon a maybe.
Just imagine if you will. Devers, Judge, Bogaerts, and Story all in the same lineup. That's a heart as strong as they come.
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Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 12:05:12 GMT -5
I don't think it's unreasonable to say that both physical extremes carry risk, though for what it's worth I personally only worry about small pitchers breaking down - it's not clear to me why a small position player would be at an elevated risk.
As has been said many times, the dream model is what the Dodgers have: a development pipeline strong enough to provide high-quality production on the cheap as a complement for veterans on big contracts. The preference would be for those veterans to be homegrown or free agent signings so you don't lose prospects, but I don't think it matters overly much. The issue is that you do have to be selective about those big contracts because the downside of getting it wrong by signing a guy is harder to overcome than the downside of passing on a guy who turns out to have been worth it. If you pass on a guy, you can still potentially get somebody else good, but if a signing doesn't work, getting out from under it can be difficult and hamper you for years. The cost/benefit analysis for Judge just seems really risky when you start talking about something like 10 years or 300m+. He's better than Devers right now, but just based on age I'd feel better about 10/300+ for Raffy than I would for Judge, and it's hard for me to see them going all-in on both those guys.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Aug 15, 2022 12:32:31 GMT -5
No problem taking a chance here. There are always reasons not to do something. The idea of Judge and Raffy back to back may challenge Manny and Papi. I don’t have a problem paying elite talent. I do have a problem overpaying mediocrity. It will not be both Judge and Devers. It will be Devers OR Judge, and IMO Devers is younger and less injury prone. |
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,204
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2022 12:38:32 GMT -5
If it prevents you from retaining Devers it’s a no from me
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