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How should the rest of the 2022 season be handled?
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 30, 2022 11:05:20 GMT -5
The problem with tanking is most of the teams ahead of you (or I suppose below you depending on how you look it) aren't very good either. Anytime you lose a game most of the teams higher up the draft board than you are losing to. So right now the Sox are sitting 14th with a .76% chance. I really don't see the Sox getting any higher than 11th. Even if they play awful, lets give them 10, that's still just a 1.8% chance. This is the NBA, we are fighting over a 1% chance increase here where I'd rather see them play good ball with some young players that give you confidence that this team can come back strong next year with a few additions and a cleaner bill of health. No matter what, they're probably getting a pick in the 12-16 range. They will have a nice pool of talent to pick from there. EDIT: This is NOT the NBA. I like tanking at this point because from a binary mindset, I like seeing something appreciable that I can easily root for. They lost, therefore this good can come from it whereas I see no good from a win, therefore I have a rooting interest. It's hard to quantify progress and get excited about it. Jeter Downs taking better swings is a better outcome than did they win or lose. Also, baseball draft is a bit of a guessing game. In 2013, Mark Appel was the first overall pick. I'm sure the Astros were excited about the. In the same draft, Aaron Judge was 32nd, I bet not many NY fans cared at the time. For reference, that was the Red Sox pick for Trey Ball at 7th overall. Many on here wanted Austin Meadows, which was still, "eh" (still infinitely better than not making the majors). So, I like it because it's aesthetically pleasing, but you can win the World Series and get the best pick in the baseball draft. I get that you want something to root for. But you need to root for a really high percentage of losses in order to have a significant effect. Do you really care if we move up 2 spots in the draft? As another poster said, the other bad teams are losing too, so unless you literally lose like more than 3/4 of the remaining games, you're probably not going to move up that much. On the other hand, you could root that we might win a really high percentage of the remaining games and squeak into the playoffs - a much more desirable outcome for a fan than getting the 9th pick instead of the 14th pick or whatever. |
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 30, 2022 12:11:43 GMT -5
I like tanking at this point because from a binary mindset, I like seeing something appreciable that I can easily root for. They lost, therefore this good can come from it whereas I see no good from a win, therefore I have a rooting interest. It's hard to quantify progress and get excited about it. Jeter Downs taking better swings is a better outcome than did they win or lose. Also, baseball draft is a bit of a guessing game. In 2013, Mark Appel was the first overall pick. I'm sure the Astros were excited about the. In the same draft, Aaron Judge was 32nd, I bet not many NY fans cared at the time. For reference, that was the Red Sox pick for Trey Ball at 7th overall. Many on here wanted Austin Meadows, which was still, "eh" (still infinitely better than not making the majors). So, I like it because it's aesthetically pleasing, but you can win the World Series and get the best pick in the baseball draft. I get that you want something to root for. But you need to root for a really high percentage of losses in order to have a significant effect. Do you really care if we move up 2 spots in the draft? As another poster said, the other bad teams are losing too, so unless you literally lose like more than 3/4 of the remaining games, you're probably not going to move up that much. On the other hand, you could root that we might win a really high percentage of the remaining games and squeak into the playoffs - a much more desirable outcome for a fan than getting the 9th pick instead of the 14th pick or whatever. Or root for our young guys to do amazing things and force themselves into positions on next year's team. Bello, Casas if he comes, even franchy/duran |
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 30, 2022 14:05:18 GMT -5
Its pretty clear the time has come to play the kids and see what you have heading into the offseason/next season. DFA brasier, plawecki, familia, refsnyder, and hill. Send down ort and franchy. Bring up casas, wong, hernandez, valdez, seabold, wink, and potentially rafaella and mata. Feels even more frustrating at this point that Bloom didnt deal JD and Eovaldi. Could have opened up 2 more spots on the roster and brought back more assests.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 30, 2022 14:25:04 GMT -5
Its pretty clear the time has come to play the kids and see what you have heading into the offseason/next season. DFA brasier, plawecki, familia, refsnyder, and hill. Send down ort and franchy. Bring up casas, wong, hernandez, valdez, seabold, wink, and potentially rafaella and mata. Feels even more frustrating at this point that Bloom didnt deal JD and Eovaldi. Could have opened up 2 more spots on the roster and brought back more assests. I agree with this philosophy but there’s a difference between bringing up guys ready or close to ready opposed to bringing up good prospects close to the majors. For example, we Rafaela doesn’t belong in the bigs but Casa just might be ready. |
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Post by redsoxpride34 on Aug 30, 2022 16:29:14 GMT -5
Its pretty clear the time has come to play the kids and see what you have heading into the offseason/next season. DFA brasier, plawecki, familia, refsnyder, and hill. Send down ort and franchy. Bring up casas, wong, hernandez, valdez, seabold, wink, and potentially rafaella and mata. Feels even more frustrating at this point that Bloom didnt deal JD and Eovaldi. Could have opened up 2 more spots on the roster and brought back more assests. I agree with this philosophy but there’s a difference between bringing up guys ready or close to ready opposed to bringing up good prospects close to the majors. For example, we Rafaela doesn’t belong in the bigs but Casa just might be ready. You could be right on Rafaella but look at a guy like Michael Harris of the braves. He was called up directly from AA and is excelling at the major league level. This team needs a CF and he's the best one in the system. Perhaps he could make the jump similar to harris. He's already major league ready defensively. Rafaella also needs to be added to the 40 man this winter so it wouldn't hurt to give him a look. We know Hernandez is not the answer long term in CF. Pointless wasting at-bats on him with the season all but done. |
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Post by seamus on Aug 30, 2022 16:40:58 GMT -5
At the start of the season, I think everyone would agree that Rafaela finishing the year in Portland would have been an unqualified success. His power took a massive leap forward this year, but his approach is still so raw that 250 PA in AA is just nowhere near enough exposure to high-quality pitching. Dropping him into the majors now could potentially do a lot to disrupt his current development. Much better to just have this season be a total success for him and then see if he's able to continue growing offensively next year.
I also don't see how it's a waste to play Hernandez or how you can say there's no way he can factor into the future. They absolutely could and probably should re-sign him given the dearth of outfield options in free agency after Judge and Nimmo.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 30, 2022 16:42:24 GMT -5
I agree with this philosophy but there’s a difference between bringing up guys ready or close to ready opposed to bringing up good prospects close to the majors. For example, we Rafaela doesn’t belong in the bigs but Casa just might be ready. You could be right on Rafaella but look at a guy like Michael Harris of the braves. He was called up directly from AA and is excelling at the major league level. This team needs a CF and he's the best one in the system. Perhaps he could make the jump similar to harris. He's already major league ready defensively. Rafaella also needs to be added to the 40 man this winter so it wouldn't hurt to give him a look. We know Hernandez is not the answer long term in CF. Pointless wasting at-bats on him with the season all but done. Why waste his service time? |
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Post by soxfansince67 on Aug 31, 2022 21:01:54 GMT -5
Any reason why Castellanos never gets mentioned as to bats to take a look at over the last games? Seems to hit everywhere, though not with much power.
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