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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 8, 2022 7:41:37 GMT -5
Very much feels like Bloom just doing his due diligence which is his job. I'd be pretty surprised if they don't but it still is no guarantee that they come away with any of the big 4 SS and if they don't then it'd be easier to trade for a 2nd baseman than a SS I would imagine.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 8, 2022 9:05:18 GMT -5
Money better go to a premium talent somewhere else if they don’t plan on signing one of the big SS
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Post by funkybuddha on Nov 8, 2022 10:52:48 GMT -5
“It doesn’t seem like they’re going to spend big on a shortstop,” one source said. “They knew this was a possibility when they signed Story last year.” That's a pretty clear cut quote. The Sox might not be as concerned with Story's arm strength problems. I'd rather move Story back versus get stuck with a bad contract. They're all going to be bad contracts with teams flooded looking for short stops this winter. Add- all the teams that could be in the short stop market- Mariners Cubs Phillies Dodgers Red Sox Braves Cardinals Orioles Two or three of these teams are going to be left without a chair at the end. This was always the play. They might be able to afford someone like Brandon Lowe who is coming off a really bad injury filled season but has the potential to have a middle of the order impact. Plus Tampa has some really good infield prospects that can fill his void immediately. I don't think they part with someone like Brujan unless they are overwhelmed. I feel like if this was going to happen with Xander it never would have gotten to this point. I guess theres always a chance they just say screw it and go with Valdez and Arroyo and see what happens at 2nd. Braves have high ceiling in house option in Grissom. I don't think they are on the list. Unless they decide to move Albies and play Grissom at 2B.
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Post by GyIantosca on Nov 8, 2022 11:27:09 GMT -5
The only good thing there are other ss for other teams to pursue. I’m jousting keeping hope alive. I rather what we have . I taking into account he is the face of the team . Similiar to Patrice Bergeron of the Bruins.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 8, 2022 12:54:44 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not buying Story to SS being plan B. Maybe plan F or something and as Eric mentions, it's not like they could even talk to anyone other than Xander yet, so they might as well figure out what's out there if the doomsday scenario happens. Figuring out every possible option feels very Bloom to me. "Free agents are allowed to speak with other clubs between now and Thursday afternoon, though no potential contract terms can be discussed." From the Mark Feinsand article. So multiple teams making multiple calls. Maybe the Sox are making less calls than others and the random source just taking that as not as interested. We'll see where the Sox are at money wise with the top 4 short stop free agents. Hopefully he's wrong.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 13:18:44 GMT -5
One common misapprehension I see in these discussions is the idea that players just sign for the highest bidder. That makes no sense psychology and it's never, ever been true.
How great was Kirby Puckett in a Sox uni after the Sox outbid the Twins? That made the papers only because Puckett came close to signing here before he realized, what was I thinking?
Most often you just never hear about the higher offers that were turned down. The Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent (source: Theo Epstein, sitting to my right), the guess being that Beltre wanted to stay on the West coast. He'd be in the conversation as best 3B of all time if he signed with the Sox.
One of the things I did for the Sox (on my own, like most of what I did) was an analysis of free agent contracts, predicting them from WAR of the last 3 seasons. The "home town discount" was really clear in this study. [1]
Not uprooting your family is worth a lot of money. Staying with coaches and teammates that you have a good relationship with has real value, too.
Players begin by identifying the offers that are reasonable, those that are not disrespectful. If one of them is from the team they really want to play for (for whatever reason), that's who they sign with. If there isn't a team that fits that description, or if there are multiple teams that do, they weigh the offers including pros and cons of the various teams and cities, and in that situation, and only in that situation, they factor in that the Players Association likes it for guys to sign with the highest bidder because in the long run, everyone benefits from rising salaries.
[1] The other thing that stood out: the predictor for pitchers included a fixed constant, which is to say that if you took what everyone had gotten based on how good they were and extrapolated downward, the cost for a replacement-level pitcher would be something like $500K! IIRC, it wasn't present when I re-did the study a couple of years later.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 8, 2022 13:23:55 GMT -5
One common misapprehension I see in these discussions is the idea that players just sign for the highest bidder. That makes no sense psychology and it's never, ever been true.
How great was Kirby Puckett in a Sox uni after the Sox outbid the Twins? That made the papers only because Puckett came close to signing here before he realized, what was I thinking?
Most often you just never hear about the higher offers that were turned down. The Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent (source: Theo Epstein, sitting to my right), the guess being that Beltre wanted to stay on the West coast. He'd be in the conversation as best 3B of all time if he signed with the Sox.
One of the things I did for the Sox (on my own, like most of what I did) was an analysis of free agent contracts, predicting them from WAR of the last 3 seasons. The "home town discount" was really clear in this study. [1]
Not uprooting your family is worth a lot of money. Staying with coaches and teammates that you have a good relationship with has real value, too.
Players begin by identifying the offers that are reasonable, those that are not disrespectful. If one of them is from the team they really want to play for (for whatever reason), that's who they sign with. If there isn't a team that fits that description, or if there are multiple teams that do, they weigh the offers including pros and cons of the various teams and cities, and in that situation, and only in that situation, they factor in that the Players Association likes it for guys to sign with the highest bidder because in the long run, everyone benefits from rising salaries.
[1] The other thing that stood out: the predictor for pitchers included a fixed constant, which is to say that if you took what everyone had gotten based on how good they were and extrapolated downward, the cost for a replacement-level pitcher would be something like $500K! IIRC, it wasn't present when I re-did the study a couple of years later.
I don't disagree with any of this, but one thing I would add is that agents pretty much are motivated solely by getting the highest dollar amount possible, and they do have some, um, agency is this process as well, if nothing else through their ability to persuade their client (even if the ultimate decision rests with the player).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 13:44:33 GMT -5
Yeah I'm not buying Story to SS being plan B. Maybe plan F or something and as Eric mentions, it's not like they could even talk to anyone other than Xander yet, so they might as well figure out what's out there if the doomsday scenario happens. Figuring out every possible option feels very Bloom to me. "Free agents are allowed to speak with other clubs between now and Thursday afternoon, though no potential contract terms can be discussed." From the Mark Feinsand article. So multiple teams making multiple calls. Maybe the Sox are making less calls than others and the random source just taking that as not as interested. We'll see where the Sox are at money wise with the top 4 short stop free agents. Hopefully he's wrong. THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS AT ALL ABOUT WHO THE SOX ARE TALKING TO ABOUT SS.
The report was that the Sox were asking teams about 2B trades. And then an unnamed source -- I'm guessing Peter Abraham, since he's wrong so often -- took that to mean that Story at SS was Plan B or even Plan A.
And at this point, all you can really do is a) ask the player if he would consider playing for your team, and if so b) confirm your interest. You don't start selling a player on your team and city as a destination before you make an offer; that happens when your offer has been approved as in the ballpark. And even saying something like "we expect to be very competitive bidders" is against the rules.
So, Bloom has to call three agents, and the functional part of each conversation literally lasts less than 10 seconds; the rest would be schmoozing with the agent to establish or continue a rapport. Players presumably have given their agents a list of teams they'd play for, and what gets done in this period is that everyone discovers who their options are, in both directions.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 14:07:40 GMT -5
One common misapprehension I see in these discussions is the idea that players just sign for the highest bidder. That makes no sense psychology and it's never, ever been true.
How great was Kirby Puckett in a Sox uni after the Sox outbid the Twins? That made the papers only because Puckett came close to signing here before he realized, what was I thinking?
Most often you just never hear about the higher offers that were turned down. The Sox outbid the Mariners for Adrian Beltre the first time he was a free agent (source: Theo Epstein, sitting to my right), the guess being that Beltre wanted to stay on the West coast. He'd be in the conversation as best 3B of all time if he signed with the Sox.
One of the things I did for the Sox (on my own, like most of what I did) was an analysis of free agent contracts, predicting them from WAR of the last 3 seasons. The "home town discount" was really clear in this study. [1]
Not uprooting your family is worth a lot of money. Staying with coaches and teammates that you have a good relationship with has real value, too.
Players begin by identifying the offers that are reasonable, those that are not disrespectful. If one of them is from the team they really want to play for (for whatever reason), that's who they sign with. If there isn't a team that fits that description, or if there are multiple teams that do, they weigh the offers including pros and cons of the various teams and cities, and in that situation, and only in that situation, they factor in that the Players Association likes it for guys to sign with the highest bidder because in the long run, everyone benefits from rising salaries.
[1] The other thing that stood out: the predictor for pitchers included a fixed constant, which is to say that if you took what everyone had gotten based on how good they were and extrapolated downward, the cost for a replacement-level pitcher would be something like $500K! IIRC, it wasn't present when I re-did the study a couple of years later.
I don't disagree with any of this, but one thing I would add is that agents pretty much are motivated solely by getting the highest dollar amount possible, and they do have some, um, agency is this process as well, if nothing else through their ability to persuade their client (even if the ultimate decision rests with the player). Yes, and this goes hand-in-hand with the player's association POV.
The fact is that a majority of free agents do not have a single preferred destination, so this is very much a factor.
But when a guy knows where he wants to play, the agent knows that their job is to get the most money from that team, assuming they make a reasonable offer, one that reflects a sincere desire. If you screw up and the player ends up elsewhere, you get fired, which was what happened to Freddie Freeman's agent.
(This was an under-reported story. His agent gave the Braves a 24-hour ultimatum with a high, imaginary figure, which the Braves quite reasonably thought was the actual Dodgers' offer. He thought, it seems, that the the Braves would up their current offer in response, and that would be the deal.
The Braves thought, we can't match that, and immediately traded for Olson since they had the inside knowledge that Freeman was about to sign. And he did, but only because the Braves no longer had an opening for him ... and he signed for a price the Braves would have met.
IIRC, Freeman knew nothing about this until the Braves (quite reasonably pissed) tipped him off.)
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 8, 2022 15:36:37 GMT -5
I'm thinking the Red Sox feel kinda confident that Bogaerts is going to re-sign once the offers start flying. Everything they've done since the bizarre spring training lowball offer has been consistent with that.
Boras' price to get Bogaerts to skip free agency a couple weeks before he reaches free agency was probably unrealistic.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 8, 2022 19:52:01 GMT -5
If they are going to put Story at SS then I bet they’d target Joey Wendle to get 400 AB’s or so at 2B
Bloom has familiarity with him from his time in Tampa, he’s a LHH, has some positional flexibility, and most importantly (w/ the shift rule) he’s got a premium glove at the keystone. He also grades out well at SS too.
Now- I’m not suggesting replacing Bogaerts in the lineup with Joey Wendle. That would be insanity. What I am suggesting is that it frees up money to spend at other spots (OF, rotation, pen) where there might be better value for the premium talent. So you go get a Nimmo/Judge (latter of the two less likely lol) + high end starting pitcher + high end reliever or something like that
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 8, 2022 20:06:51 GMT -5
Moved to the Off-Season thread
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 8, 2022 21:48:58 GMT -5
I expect D-Dom to be D-Dom and sign one of the big-name SS. But I don't think it will necessarily be X. I'd probably bet on him signing Correa. If the Red Sox sign one, I'd expect it to be Swanson, as he's likely to carry the lowest price tag. I take no encouragement from Bloom saying X is the team's priority. If he's the priority, Chaim, then where ya been the past two years? Why didn't it get done already? It's easier to make these deals before a guy hits FA than it is once other teams start making offers. Because until this year, there was real possibility that Xander Bogaerts would need to move to LF as soon as this coming year.
Same thing with extending Raffy, and note that they made a point of giving him an offer based on his playing 1B.
If a player is a year from free agency, and there's a 1 to 2 WAR uncertainty (each year!) in his value, there is no way to strike a deal. The player realizes that they need to improve on defense and, convinced of their ability to do just that, will want that money now. But the F.O. cannot do that. Sometimes no amount of hard work can bring about a desired outcome. Even if you're 90% sure the players will reach their upside, the downside if you're wrong exceeds the gain you'll get by completing a deal when the upside is still just that, and not reality. It's rare that a 10% chance-we're-screwed gamble is better than waiting a bit and eliminating the uncertainty.
The Raffy offer suggests that the low offers to both players were in part designed to underscore the importance of fulfilling their defensive potential. I think they're both professional enough and proud enough to have lit their own fires underneath themselves, so you can regard the low offers as tossing an extra log or two on them. It makes the consequences of not working hard enough really vivid, by putting a $number on it.
It worked beautifully. And the team will gladly pay the extra money now.
This post makes zero sense on multiple levels. Here's a partial list: 1. I don't recall any serious, informed commentary or reporting last winter that indicated the organization was thinking of moving X to LF by 2023. 2. Every player who gets regular or semi-regular playing time has a 1 to 2 WAR uncertainty each year. Yet, some of those players and their teams do what you deem impossible and agree to extensions before the player reaches FA. 3. Teams are rarely 90 percent sure of a player reaching his upside. If teams refused to make deals that have less than a 90-percent likelihood of success, there would be no deals. 4. The offers to Raffy and X tossed "an extra log or two" on their fires and that's why their defense improved? What? The offer to X was made in ST. Did he put himself on an iron man conditioning program to improve his range when he got that offer? 5. What evidence do we have that either guy is a better defender than he was in 2021? One year of defense metrics isn't worth much. And Devers didn't exactly become Brooks Robinson this past season. B-Ref dWAR: -.3; UZR/150: -2.1; DRS: -6. 5. Nothing about the X and Devers situations has "worked beautifully." X's name isn't on a contract because they haven't made a serious offer and in fact insulted him with a silly one. Now we'll either lose him for a draft pick or sign him for more than it would have taken months ago. Raffy hasn't signed an extension because he and his rep have a far different opinion of his value than Bloom does, not because the Red Sox executed a genius plan to bring us to the situation we now have with him. My original point, which you contested, was that Bloom should have gotten serious a long time ago about working something out with X. I still think that's the case.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 10, 2022 22:10:04 GMT -5
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Post by xdmo on Nov 10, 2022 22:27:19 GMT -5
MLBTR also had majority votes going with the Giants landing Correa. The Cubs landing Dansby Swanson. The Phillies landing Trea Turner. There were some mixed opinions, with some guessing the Mariners and Dodgers as predictions.
No Red Sox predictions of them landing a short stop.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 10, 2022 22:49:17 GMT -5
Three out of four of them have the Red Sox keeping Eovaldi (on 2/34). Senga, Conforto, and Taylor Rogers to the Red Sox get two votes. One each for Benintendi, Chafin, Heaney, Ottavino, Kluber, and someone named Drew Rucinski.
Apparently the Red Sox are going into 2023 with 11 starting pitchers and no shortstop.
By the way, their SS predicted contracts are:
Correa: 9/288
Turner: 8/268
Bogaerts: 7/189 Swanson: 7/154
Yikes at those Correa and Turner contracts.
ADD: Actually, I retract the 'yikes' on Correa - just did the math wrong at first! A 32 AAV through age 36 isn't crazy. Once again, Bogaerts>Correa>>>Swanson/Turner is where I'm at.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 11, 2022 8:41:02 GMT -5
I'm thinking the Red Sox feel kinda confident that Bogaerts is going to re-sign once the offers start flying. Everything they've done since the bizarre spring training lowball offer has been consistent with that. Boras' price to get Bogaerts to skip free agency a couple weeks before he reaches free agency was probably unrealistic. Maybe not necessarily re-sign, but I do think they are betting on his negotiating stance to change once he sees what's out there.
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Post by taftreign on Nov 11, 2022 9:13:14 GMT -5
MLBTR also had majority votes going with the Giants landing Correa. The Cubs landing Dansby Swanson. The Phillies landing Trea Turner. There were some mixed opinions, with some guessing the Mariners and Dodgers as predictions. No Red Sox predictions of them landing a short stop. I’m not sure why but Baltimore doesn’t get mentioned in many predictions but one of the top shortstops makes a ton of sense for them. Especially Correa with no pick loss attached.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 11, 2022 9:46:00 GMT -5
Three out of four of them have the Red Sox keeping Eovaldi (on 2/34). Senga, Conforto, and Taylor Rogers to the Red Sox get two votes. One each for Benintendi, Chafin, Heaney, Ottavino, Kluber, and someone named Drew Rucinski. Apparently the Red Sox are going into 2023 with 11 starting pitchers and no shortstop. By the way, their SS predicted contracts are: Correa: 9/288
Turner: 8/268
Bogaerts: 7/189 Swanson: 7/154 Yikes at those Correa and Turner contracts.
Interesting. I wonder if Boston fails to sign Xander, he ends up in Philadephia. Dombrowski knows him well.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 11, 2022 10:01:08 GMT -5
I’d give Xander that projected deal. Even if he doesn’t fully live up to it.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2022 11:23:22 GMT -5
Three out of four of them have the Red Sox keeping Eovaldi (on 2/34). Senga, Conforto, and Taylor Rogers to the Red Sox get two votes. One each for Benintendi, Chafin, Heaney, Ottavino, Kluber, and someone named Drew Rucinski.
Apparently the Red Sox are going into 2023 with 11 starting pitchers and no shortstop.
By the way, their SS predicted contracts are:
Correa: 9/288
Turner: 8/268
Bogaerts: 7/189 Swanson: 7/154
Yikes at those Correa and Turner contracts.
Paying Dansby Swanson $150 million dollars (and losing two draft picks to do so because of the QO) would drive me insane. I would almost rather throw Marcelo Mayer at SS like a parent tossing their eight year old with like 15 minutes of swimming lessons into the deep end of the pool
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 11, 2022 11:45:06 GMT -5
I’d give Xander that projected deal. Even if he doesn’t fully live up to it. Xander at 7/189 is rich but hes the type of player that you're going to look at in year 6 and 7 and say well the first 4 years were great so that justified the contract. I don't think this team will get in a bidding war for him. You have Philly San Fran Seattle or St Louis all looking for someone in that spot. Then you obviously have the MFY as a dark horse. Giving Correa with his injury history 300 million is bat shit crazy.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 11, 2022 11:47:24 GMT -5
Three out of four of them have the Red Sox keeping Eovaldi (on 2/34). Senga, Conforto, and Taylor Rogers to the Red Sox get two votes. One each for Benintendi, Chafin, Heaney, Ottavino, Kluber, and someone named Drew Rucinski.
Apparently the Red Sox are going into 2023 with 11 starting pitchers and no shortstop. They're probably thinking that the Sox are probably going to flip Story at Short Stop and the Sox fill second base externally for cheap. Someone to platoon with Arroyo, left handed platoon, would be a safe bet.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Nov 11, 2022 12:01:36 GMT -5
Three out of four of them have the Red Sox keeping Eovaldi (on 2/34). Senga, Conforto, and Taylor Rogers to the Red Sox get two votes. One each for Benintendi, Chafin, Heaney, Ottavino, Kluber, and someone named Drew Rucinski.
Apparently the Red Sox are going into 2023 with 11 starting pitchers and no shortstop. They're probably thinking that the Sox are probably going to flip Story at Short Stop and the Sox fill second base externally for cheap. Someone to platoon with Arroyo, left handed platoon, would be a safe bet. Safe bet that the Sox will do that? or a safe bet that that's what someone at MLBTRADERUMORS thinks? I'll buy in on the latter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 11, 2022 12:23:40 GMT -5
MLBTR also had majority votes going with the Giants landing Correa. The Cubs landing Dansby Swanson. The Phillies landing Trea Turner. There were some mixed opinions, with some guessing the Mariners and Dodgers as predictions. No Red Sox predictions of them landing a short stop. I’m not sure why but Baltimore doesn’t get mentioned in many predictions but one of the top shortstops makes a ton of sense for them. Especially Correa with no pick loss attached. Gunnar Henderson. I know he played 3B in deference to Mateo defensively but it'd probably be more prudent for them to target 3B, no? Justin Turner on a one-year deal would be interesting for them to bridge to Westburg or Mayo maybe?
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