Post by seamus on Aug 29, 2022 16:35:31 GMT -5
Unless there's an injury setback or something happens over the offseason such that an all-star caliber first baseman falls into the Sox's lap (e.g., Josh Bell lingers on the market for some reason), I have a hard time seeing Casas not on the opening day roster. Maybe they pull the service time nonsense, but he's probably ready for the bigs now and I think he's got a decent ROY candidate profile, so gambling on the draft pick seems reasonable given that he could still win ROY if he misses April and get the full year of service time anyway. A guy with the potential to put up an .800 OPS with plus-defense for a team that should contend is a pretty good ROY candidate, especially if he gets 140+ games.
For 2023, I'm thinking something like .260/.350/.460 would be a good (and plausible) showing, with the hope of ticking up from there. I think he might end up with as a 20-25 home run guy, maybe a career year in the low-30s. Doubles are going to be the key to his slugging percentage, I think. Especially in Fenway, he could be a doubles machine given that he's got good opposite field power. Like, it wouldn't surprise if he posts a 50 double season at some point. The dream for me would be for a peak reminiscent of Youk's 2007-2011 run.
For 2023, I'm thinking something like .260/.350/.460 would be a good (and plausible) showing, with the hope of ticking up from there. I think he might end up with as a 20-25 home run guy, maybe a career year in the low-30s. Doubles are going to be the key to his slugging percentage, I think. Especially in Fenway, he could be a doubles machine given that he's got good opposite field power. Like, it wouldn't surprise if he posts a 50 double season at some point. The dream for me would be for a peak reminiscent of Youk's 2007-2011 run.