2023 Red Sox Payroll

I know Manfred has enacted some interesting rules, but preparing for him to add 2 additional DHs to the lineup in 5 years seems bold. I'm assuming that Wacha number is pretty low as well based on pitching demand and contracts we've seen given out in the past.

Red Sox payroll Twitter account has them at about $80 million under the CBT going into 2023, once you account for raises in arbitration. And the only guaranteed money that is on the books after 2023 is Sale, Story, Whitlock and Hosmer. I've said it a bunch but this is maybe the most financial flexibility the Red Sox have had going into an offseason in the last 20 years. The only other time that comes close, I think, was after the 2014 season. And that year Cherington gave over $300 million to Hanley, Pablo, Porcello and Rusney Castillo. I similarly think Bloom is going to give out a ton of money this offseason.

As for my guess to how the money will be spent, I really don't know. I have said before but I just have such a hard time believing they are going to keep both Xander and Devers, considering the shift has been banned, Story is under contract and their top prospect is a potential franchise SS in Mayer who will be knocking on the major league door sooner rather than later. This leaves a few possibilities in my eyes:

1. Sign Xander to the 8/$200 or whatever he wants. He plays SS in 2023-24 but the plan is to shift him over to 3B once Mayer is ready. Let Devers walk after next year. That leaves $50 million to split between corner OF and SP, which is plenty enough to get Judge or Nimmo and one of the better SPs on the market. Maybe they want to also add a C if they aren't confident in Wong/Maguire.
2. Let Xander walk, sign Devers to the 10/$300 million contract he wants. Sign a cheaper SS who is just there to bridge the gap until Mayer is ready. Still have $50 mil to split between a corner OF, SP and maybe C.
3. Do the same as 1, but trade Devers to try get a corner OF or SP in return. $50 million would be spent on whatever position you aren't filling with the Devers trade as well as a stop gap 3B to hold it down until Xander shifts over.

I think 3 is clearly the most unlikely to happen. 1 and 2 seem equally as likely to me. Xander is older but cheaper and more consistent, Devers is younger but more expensive and has more questions around his game. Whatever happens, my gut is telling me that this offseason is going to be wild.

I think the Sox will have a wild winter, but I would honestly be dumbfounded if they do anything at catcher besides sign a AAA depth guy. The McGuire/Wong duo projects as something at least vaguely around league average (with definite upside potential if the running game really does tick up next year). That's GREAT value for a pairing that's going to make only like $2m. Because of playing time limits on catchers, it's just really hard to get much value out of even a $10m contract unless you're talking about a superstar. Payroll flexibility disappears real quick if you spend it on cheap positions that are good enough - Sox have to still treat the roster like a triage situation and stay focused on corner OF, SS, a front-end starter, and bullpen help. That's (more than) enough to worry about without monkeying with catcher.

And for what it's worth, Cots contracts has the Sox $112 under the tax.