|
|
Post by taiwansox on Oct 27, 2022 10:26:19 GMT -5
One theme that’s come up in a few threads is around how player value will be impacted by the upcoming rule changes. Which types of players are going to be most impacted? A few ideas below:
1. Left-handed pull hitters, BABIP should go up (Joey Gallo types less so since they don’t make contact)
2. Baserunning - prospects such as David Hamilton may have new value around the changed pickoff rules/bigger bases
3. Infield defense - defenders who have plus range could separate from the pack in terms of defensive value
4. Ground ball hitters - similar to the left-handed pull hitter concept where the elimination of the shift could partially diminish the value of launch angles where hitters could benefit from hard hit ground balls
5. Catchers - poor throwing catchers like Plawecki will be more burdensome with an increase in SBs, strong throwing catchers will be a core part of controlling an expansion in the running element of the game
|
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Oct 27, 2022 10:40:52 GMT -5
I think all the nerds that look at the shift rules' impact on batters agree that it's a nothingburger. Here's one article claiming the most effected guys will get one extra hit on average: theathletic.com/3608801/2022/09/22/sarris-mlbs-new-rules-benefits/I think the base stealing impact will be significant. You can just look at the minor league leaderboards and there's lots of guys that became unstoppable with the new rules. |
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Oct 27, 2022 11:16:35 GMT -5
I think all the nerds that look at the shift rules' impact on batters agree that it's a nothingburger. Here's one article claiming the most effected guys will get one extra hit on average: theathletic.com/3608801/2022/09/22/sarris-mlbs-new-rules-benefits/I think the base stealing impact will be significant. You can just look at the minor league leaderboards and there's lots of guys that became unstoppable with the new rules. And yet I swear I recall at least 11,000 instances of lefties smoking line drives right at the infielder playing in shallow right...
I do think people are overestimating how big the effects will be. (I've seen suggestions that it will boost lefties' AVG by like 20 points or something, which seems unlikely to me.) But did teams really do all this exotic shifting just to take away one hit per batter per year?
|
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 27, 2022 11:52:35 GMT -5
Agree with the above, otherwise where were all the "nerds" saying that the shift was bascially a waste of time. Back in the day when Lou Boudreau first imposed the "Williams shift" everyone thought it was worth more than that. Ted just didn't care and took beating it as just another challenge, pretty sure he could have just gone to the open left side all day but he didn't consider it hitting.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 27, 2022 12:03:11 GMT -5
Agree with the above, otherwise where were all the "nerds" saying that the shift was bascially a waste of time. Back in the day when Lou Boudreau first imposed the "Williams shift" everyone thought it was worth more than that. Ted just didn't care and took beating it as just another challenge, pretty sure he could have just gone to the open left side all day but he didn't consider it hitting. Ted was the special kind of guy who could hit it over the shift rather than into it. After all, unless you can station your LF and your 3b in the bullpen and RF stands, it doesn't matter. He did, though, hit the pennant clinching HR in 1946 to where LF was vacated. The Sox magic number had been stuck at 1 and they were on a 6 game losing streak I think, and they were playing Cleveland and won 1-0 behind Tex Hughson with the 1 run being Ted Williams' only inside the park HR of his career that he hit to the vacant LF. I do remember him saying that the year he hit .388 in 1957 when he was turning 39 years old that he was hitting balls the other way more often than he normally did. |
|
|
|
Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Oct 27, 2022 12:30:32 GMT -5
Ted also wasn't facing fastballs in the 8th inning at 101mph with 22 inches of run
|
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 27, 2022 13:36:38 GMT -5
He also didn't have video, advanced scouting analytics and modern training techniques - still betting on Teddy Ballgame.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,826
|
Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 27, 2022 13:38:01 GMT -5
In my opinion, a Jarren Duran could really profit from the new rules and especially on the non-shift. Speed and being left-handed could be really special.
Also, a 2nd baseman with range (like Story) will now be in more demand.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 28, 2022 11:31:29 GMT -5
Ted also wasn't facing fastballs in the 8th inning at 101mph with 22 inches of run All considered, probably easier to deal with than the 500 mph fighter jets and missiles shooting at Ted Williams over Korea  In terms of current career highs for stolen bases from some Sox regulars: Story - 27 in 2018 (although he was on pace for ~40 over a full season in 2020) Xander* - 15 in 2017 Kiké - 4 in 2019 Raffy - 8 in 2019 Verdugo - 6 in 2021 Even with the clock/pickoff attempt limit, curious how much potential there is for who they have to get a lot more steals other than Story? |
|
|
|
Post by taiwansox on Oct 28, 2022 12:15:30 GMT -5
Ted also wasn't facing fastballs in the 8th inning at 101mph with 22 inches of run All considered, probably easier to deal with than the 500 mph fighter jets and missiles shooting at Ted Williams over Korea In terms of current career highs for stolen bases from some Sox regulars: Story - 27 in 2018 (although he was on pace for ~40 over a full season in 2020) Xander* - 15 in 2017 Kiké - 4 in 2019 Raffy - 8 in 2019 Verdugo - 6 in 2021 Even with the clock/pickoff attempt limit, curious how much potential there is for who they have to get a lot more steals other than Story? Good call on our current roster, I wonder if they prioritize a corner power bat with both Jarren and Hamilton waiting in the wings as legit speed threats. Didnât realize Kiké has never cleared 4 SB in a season, even Ortiz had 4 SB in 2013 lmao |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 28, 2022 18:01:07 GMT -5
Ted also wasn't facing fastballs in the 8th inning at 101mph with 22 inches of run You really don't think Ted Williams wouldn't have been good enough and smart enough to adjust? These pitchers do that today yet ERAs are still around 4 and HRs fly out of the park. I think Williams would have been able to do a helluva lot more damage. His BA might have been lower than .344 but he would have hit more HRs and still would have taken his walks at a ridiculous pace. |
|
|
|
Post by bosox904 on Oct 29, 2022 5:27:19 GMT -5
I think all the nerds that look at the shift rules' impact on batters agree that it's a nothingburger. Here's one article claiming the most effected guys will get one extra hit on average: theathletic.com/3608801/2022/09/22/sarris-mlbs-new-rules-benefits/I think the base stealing impact will be significant. You can just look at the minor league leaderboards and there's lots of guys that became unstoppable with the new rules. And yet I swear I recall at least 11,000 instances of lefties smoking line drives right at the infielder playing in shallow right...
I do think people are overestimating how big the effects will be. (I've seen suggestions that it will boost lefties' AVG by like 20 points or something, which seems unlikely to me.) But did teams really do all this exotic shifting just to take away one hit per batter per year?
The thing is guys still have really good batting lines when hit in those areas on certain batted ball types. We just don't remember them as well for some reason. |
|
|
|
Post by costpet on Oct 29, 2022 9:44:14 GMT -5
Ted LOVED fastballs. I don’t care how fast they threw them, he would tee off on anyone.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 15:30:56 GMT -5
Top 15 guys hurt by the shift, last 3 years, Raw Numbers, not adjusted for PT. That'll happen after I vote.
(Yes, they're all LHB. Eugenio Suarez leads the RHB and ranks 17th.)
Diff is wOBA -xwOBA. "Hurt" is just that multiplied by PA shifted on. I had to first determine the LA at which the shift stopped being a factor and it turned out to be amazingly distinct. LA of 12 and below, big effect, 12 and above, none. Name PA Diff Hurt
Santana, Carlos 292 -.102 -29.8
Bellinger, Cody 269 -.106 -28.5
Muncy, Max 324 -.088 -28.5
Rizzo, Anthony 369 -.077 -28.4
Schwarber, Kyle 295 -.092 -27.1
Seager, Corey 424 -.063 -26.7
Kepler, Max 357 -.069 -24.6
Tellez, Rowdy 301 -.071 -21.4
Yastrzemski, M. 239 -.088 -21.0
Tucker, Kyle 366 -.055 -20.1
Calhoun, Kole 213 -.094 -20.0
Alvarez, Yordan 322 -.061 -19.6
Gallo, Joey 187 -.101 -18.9
Harper, Bryce 284 -.066 -18.7
Olson, Matt 421 -.044 -18.5
Verdugo is 0.0 and Raffy is actually positive.
|
|
|
|
Post by jerryu on Nov 8, 2022 21:12:18 GMT -5
Eric,
What a spectacular analysis. Even if I can’t understand how you did it.
Jerryu
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 8, 2022 22:49:24 GMT -5
Eric, What a spectacular analysis. Even if I can’t understand how you did it. Jerryu Turns out this is scratching the surface. It's much more complicated and (thankfully) much more interesting that I thought at first.
Do some hitters change their approach when the other team shifts on them?
I'm guessing that some do and some don't. But I can identify them I think.
I've already got four spreadsheets:
-- Shift is on and ball is hit at shift level (grounder or low liner). -- Shift is on but ball is hit higher, rendering shift moot.
-- Shift is not on but ball is hit at shift level . -- Shift is not on and ball is hit higher.
I want to compare the high liners and fly balls, hit in shift vs. non-shift. A difference indicates change of approach.
Next up is pull / straightaway / oppo breakdowns for shift, and non-shift. Six more spreadsheets!
And then the basic stats for everyone, in shift and non-shift, to see if SO and BB rates change.
Every sheet is two searches on Savant, one each for R and L hitters. That's 24 searches, and spreadsheets have as many as 1177 player entries. I want to include everyone in case there are guys who were shifted on just a few times. Not that you'd use that data, but missing it might cause confusions, and it takes almost no extra effort to grab everyone.
|
|
