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2022 System Review: By The Numbers
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Post by ramireja on Oct 27, 2022 19:00:33 GMT -5
Here are some random stats musings on bats in the system. Feel free to add anything below! I'll dig up some pitching stuff eventually too.
118: That’s the number of walks (114) plus HBP (4) registered by Wilyer Abreu this year. That number tied for the minor league lead and was most by any player in the minors under the age of 25 (or 30 for that matter). Also of interest, his .399 OBP was identical across his tenures with the HOU and BOS organizations this year.
186: That’s the outrageous wRC+ put by Niko Kavadas in each of his stints in Salem and Greenville this year. So basically, he absolutely annihilated A ball which we expected, but then went up a level and annihilated in A+ with the exact same wRC+. How good is a 186 wRC+? The highest wRC+ put up across full-season ball in the minors this year was 175 (Vaun Brown). Ultimately, Niko put up a wRC+ of 170 when taking into account his Portland stint but that was still strong enough to rank 3rd out of 1031 players in the minors with at least 300 PAs.
.192: That’s the BABIP for Alex Binelas across 241 PAs in Portland. That’s the second lowest BABIP for any player with at least 200 PAs at any single level across the minors (that’s a huge number of players). Look for that to regress to the mean next year (even if he does have low BABIP skill issues) and thus improve the overall triple slash line.
>70 & <10: A total of 5 players in the entire minors recorded 70 SB this past year. Only one player did so while registering fewer than 10 CS. That player was David Hamilton who ended up with 70 SB to 8 CS. Adjusting those thresholds a bit, only 3 players recorded 60 SB with 5 or fewer CS and one of those players was Max Ferguson.
2: That’s the number of teenagers with at least 300 PAs who walked as many times as they struck out this year. One of those players is Adael Amador of the Colorado Rockies organization. The other is Brainer Bonaci who whose 18.0 BB% ranked 2nd in the Carolina league among qualified players.
155: I already highlighted Niko’s 186 wRC+ across A and A+ this year, so a 155 wRC+ may not seem as impressive in comparison, but Nathan Hickey achieved this wRC+ over the course of his entire season and it was incredibly impressive. How impressive? It ranked 12th out of the 1031 players with at least 300 PAs in the minors this year. It ranks 3rd out of all catchers in the minors with the same threshold of PAs. Now the caveat here is that Hickey spent a portion of the year in Salem which wasn’t necessarily an aggressive assignment for a college player, but consider these two nuggets: 1) Hickey only received a total of 335 PAs in college, and 2) his wRC+ showed little degradation from his 182 PAs in Salem (158 wRC+) to his 146 PAs in Greenville (152 wRC+). If Hickey can put similar (or even 130-140 wRC+) in AA next year, I wonder if there will be some Austin Wells levels of prospect love for Hickey on the horizon.
13: That’s the number of players who hit at least 10 triples this year across the minor leagues. We have three players on that list: Ceddanne Rafaela, Matthew Lugo, and Eddinson Paulino. If you play with some other arbitrary but interesting thresholds it becomes even more impressive. Only two players hit 25 2B, 10 3B, and 15 HR (Rafaela and Lugo). Only three players hit 30 2B, 10 3B, and 10 HR (Rafaela and Paulino were two of the three). Finally, only one player hit 30 2B, 10 3B, and 20 HR and you can probably guess who that was…Rafaela. This trio had a pretty ridiculous season in terms of racking up extra base hits and it will be fun to watch them continue to climb the ranks.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 3, 2022 12:05:13 GMT -5
Here are some notes on our arms from 2022:
10.71: That’s the highest K/BB ratio in the entire minor leagues for pitchers with at least 50 innings and it belongs to Brandon Walter. I’ll admit that K/BB ratio isn’t my favorite stat based on the fact that the value of the denominator has a disproportionate impact on the final value. I probably prefer K-BB% for which Walter still ranks 14th out of the 1343 pitchers in the minors with 50 innings pitched. Although Walter’s season was cut short, he was quite dominant when he did pitch. The combination of his K%, BB%, and also GB% led to a sterling xFIP of…
2.56: Yup, that’s Walter’s xFIP. How good is that? It ranks 4th out of the 1343 pitchers with 50 innings pitched. Actually…it tied for 4th. Who was the other pitcher with a 2.56 xFIP? Bryan Bello. Both guys check the three boxes where you like to see success: 1) Misses bats, 2) limits free passes – although Walter>Bello, 3) Generates lots of groundballs when balls are put in play – although Bello>Walter. It’s why I’m personally higher on these two than any other pitchers in our system.
0: That’s the number of HRs allowed by Eybersson Polanco. Of all the pitchers in our system that did not allow a HR, Polanco pitched the most innings with 50.2. Polanco was only one of 10 pitchers in all of the minor leagues to do so having pitched at least 50 innings.
28: This is an unfortunate stat. It’s the number of batters HBP by Wyatt Olds, which led the entire minor leagues by 4 batters. Olds has a long way to go in terms of control/command but his electric stuff still gives him a chance at reaching the majors in a relief role…one that may be terrifying for opposing batters.
157: The system leader in strikeouts this year was Shane Drohan who recorded 157 Ks in 129.2 innings. His 157 Ks ranked 18th in the entire minor leagues and was the most by a Red Sox farmhand since Kutter Crawford also struck out 157 in 2018.
1.13 -> 8.90: These are two ERA values that come from the same pitcher, Hunter Dobbins, in two consecutive stretches of at least 7 starts. First, in a 7-start stretch from 6/17 to 7/24, Dobbins was nasty in his return from TJ surgery putting up the following line: 32.0 IP, 24 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 38 K (1.13 ERA). Then, in an 8-start stretch from 7/30 to 9/11 everything fell apart leading to this line: 31.1 IP, 48 H, 31 ER, 15 BB, 28 K (8.90 ERA). Was it a matter of early fatigue coming back from TJ? Did the league quickly figure something out about his arsenal that he needs to work on? 2023 should be interesting for Dobbins.
35.1: That’s the highest K% in our system among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings and it belongs to Jacob Webb who accomplished that in 56.2 innings primarily split across Salem and Greenville (3 innings in Portland). Now my cutoff of 40 innings is admittedly arbitrary so who is the system leader if I set that threshold to even 39 innings? That would be Luis Guerrero who struck out 35.5% of batters in 39.0 innings also primarily split across Salem and Greenville (2.1 FCL innings). What do Jacob Webb and Luis Guerrero have in common beyond gaudy K-rates and reliever profiles? They’re both Day 3 picks from the 2021 draft. Who ranks right behind those two having struck out 35.0% of batters in 35.1 innings? Christopher Troye, another Day 3 pick from the same draft. It’s quite clear that the Red Sox are dialed in on swing-and-miss stuff from their recent college pitching draft classes with little concern of BB%. I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of arms from the 2022 class similarly post big K-rates in 2023 based on their college performance and fastball characteristics.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,196 
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Post by cdj on Nov 3, 2022 13:59:43 GMT -5
Wyatt Olds- not afraid of pitching inside
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 3, 2022 14:19:09 GMT -5
Here are some notes on our arms from 2022: 10.71: That’s the highest K/BB ratio in the entire minor leagues for pitchers with at least 50 innings and it belongs to Brandon Walter. I’ll admit that K/BB ratio isn’t my favorite stat based on the fact that the value of the denominator has a disproportionate impact on the final value. I probably prefer K-BB% for which Walter still ranks 14th out of the 1343 pitchers in the minors with 50 innings pitched. Although Walter’s season was cut short, he was quite dominant when he did pitch. The combination of his K%, BB%, and also GB% led to a sterling xFIP of… 2.56: Yup, that’s Walter’s xFIP. How good is that? It ranks 4th out of the 1343 pitchers with 50 innings pitched. Actually…it tied for 4th. Who was the other pitcher with a 2.56 xFIP? Bryan Bello. Both guys check the three boxes where you like to see success: 1) Misses bats, 2) limits free passes – although Walter>Bello, 3) Generates lots of groundballs when balls are put in play – although Bello>Walter. It’s why I’m personally higher on these two than any other pitchers in our system. 0: That’s the number of HRs allowed by Eybersson Polanco. Of all the pitchers in our system that did not allow a HR, Polanco pitched the most innings with 50.2. Polanco was only one of 10 pitchers in all of the minor leagues to do so having pitched at least 50 innings. 28: This is an unfortunate stat. It’s the number of batters HBP by Wyatt Olds, which led the entire minor leagues by 4 batters. Olds has a long way to go in terms of control/command but his electric stuff still gives him a chance at reaching the majors in a relief role…one that may be terrifying for opposing batters. 157: The system leader in strikeouts this year was Shane Drohan who recorded 157 Ks in 129.2 innings. His 157 Ks ranked 18th in the entire minor leagues and was the most by a Red Sox farmhand since Kutter Crawford also struck out 157 in 2018. 1.13 -> 8.90: These are two ERA values that come from the same pitcher, Hunter Dobbins, in two consecutive stretches of at least 7 starts. First, in a 7-start stretch from 6/17 to 7/24, Dobbins was nasty in his return from TJ surgery putting up the following line: 32.0 IP, 24 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 38 K (1.13 ERA). Then, in an 8-start stretch from 7/30 to 9/11 everything fell apart leading to this line: 31.1 IP, 48 H, 31 ER, 15 BB, 28 K (8.90 ERA). Was it a matter of early fatigue coming back from TJ? Did the league quickly figure something out about his arsenal that he needs to work on? 2023 should be interesting for Dobbins. 35.1: That’s the highest K% in our system among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings and it belongs to Jacob Webb who accomplished that in 56.2 innings primarily split across Salem and Greenville (3 innings in Portland). Now my cutoff of 40 innings is admittedly arbitrary so who is the system leader if I set that threshold to even 39 innings? That would be Luis Guerrero who struck out 35.5% of batters in 39.0 innings also primarily split across Salem and Greenville (2.1 FCL innings). What do Jacob Webb and Luis Guerrero have in common beyond gaudy K-rates and reliever profiles? They’re both Day 3 picks from the 2021 draft. Who ranks right behind those two having struck out 35.0% of batters in 35.1 innings? Christopher Troye, another Day 3 pick from the same draft. It’s quite clear that the Red Sox are dialed in on swing-and-miss stuff from their recent college pitching draft classes with little concern of BB%. I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of arms from the 2022 class similarly post big K-rates in 2023 based on their college performance and fastball characteristics. This is great stuff! It certainly gives optimism for the players coming up through the system. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 3, 2022 14:21:04 GMT -5
Wyatt Olds- not afraid of pitching inside Ian noted when he saw him that Olds seemed to be forcing a changeup he had little control of. We wondered if development goals (working on that pitch) may have been the primary driver of the high HBP count. |
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Post by kwodes on Nov 3, 2022 19:41:33 GMT -5
A total of 5 players in the entire minors recorded 70 SB this past year. Only one player did so while registering fewer than 10 CS. That player was David Hamilton who ended up with 70 SB to 8 CS. Adjusting those thresholds a bit, only 3 players recorded 60 SB with 5 or fewer CS and one of those players was Max Ferguson.
Is this a possible sign of Chaim's foresight in how the new pace-of-play rules will impact the value of base stealers?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 3, 2022 20:48:04 GMT -5
A total of 5 players in the entire minors recorded 70 SB this past year. Only one player did so while registering fewer than 10 CS. That player was David Hamilton who ended up with 70 SB to 8 CS. Adjusting those thresholds a bit, only 3 players recorded 60 SB with 5 or fewer CS and one of those players was Max Ferguson. Is this a possible sign of Chaim's foresight in how the new pace-of-play rules will impact the value of base stealers? But can these guys steal 1b? That's always still a key to the offense - getting on base. |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Nov 4, 2022 9:12:42 GMT -5
Here are some notes on our arms from 2022: 10.71: That’s the highest K/BB ratio in the entire minor leagues for pitchers with at least 50 innings and it belongs to Brandon Walter. I’ll admit that K/BB ratio isn’t my favorite stat based on the fact that the value of the denominator has a disproportionate impact on the final value. I probably prefer K-BB% for which Walter still ranks 14th out of the 1343 pitchers in the minors with 50 innings pitched. Although Walter’s season was cut short, he was quite dominant when he did pitch. The combination of his K%, BB%, and also GB% led to a sterling xFIP of… 2.56: Yup, that’s Walter’s xFIP. How good is that? It ranks 4th out of the 1343 pitchers with 50 innings pitched. Actually…it tied for 4th. Who was the other pitcher with a 2.56 xFIP? Bryan Bello. Both guys check the three boxes where you like to see success: 1) Misses bats, 2) limits free passes – although Walter>Bello, 3) Generates lots of groundballs when balls are put in play – although Bello>Walter. It’s why I’m personally higher on these two than any other pitchers in our system. 0: That’s the number of HRs allowed by Eybersson Polanco. Of all the pitchers in our system that did not allow a HR, Polanco pitched the most innings with 50.2. Polanco was only one of 10 pitchers in all of the minor leagues to do so having pitched at least 50 innings. 28: This is an unfortunate stat. It’s the number of batters HBP by Wyatt Olds, which led the entire minor leagues by 4 batters. Olds has a long way to go in terms of control/command but his electric stuff still gives him a chance at reaching the majors in a relief role…one that may be terrifying for opposing batters. 157: The system leader in strikeouts this year was Shane Drohan who recorded 157 Ks in 129.2 innings. His 157 Ks ranked 18th in the entire minor leagues and was the most by a Red Sox farmhand since Kutter Crawford also struck out 157 in 2018. 1.13 -> 8.90: These are two ERA values that come from the same pitcher, Hunter Dobbins, in two consecutive stretches of at least 7 starts. First, in a 7-start stretch from 6/17 to 7/24, Dobbins was nasty in his return from TJ surgery putting up the following line: 32.0 IP, 24 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 38 K (1.13 ERA). Then, in an 8-start stretch from 7/30 to 9/11 everything fell apart leading to this line: 31.1 IP, 48 H, 31 ER, 15 BB, 28 K (8.90 ERA). Was it a matter of early fatigue coming back from TJ? Did the league quickly figure something out about his arsenal that he needs to work on? 2023 should be interesting for Dobbins. 35.1: That’s the highest K% in our system among pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings and it belongs to Jacob Webb who accomplished that in 56.2 innings primarily split across Salem and Greenville (3 innings in Portland). Now my cutoff of 40 innings is admittedly arbitrary so who is the system leader if I set that threshold to even 39 innings? That would be Luis Guerrero who struck out 35.5% of batters in 39.0 innings also primarily split across Salem and Greenville (2.1 FCL innings). What do Jacob Webb and Luis Guerrero have in common beyond gaudy K-rates and reliever profiles? They’re both Day 3 picks from the 2021 draft. Who ranks right behind those two having struck out 35.0% of batters in 35.1 innings? Christopher Troye, another Day 3 pick from the same draft. It’s quite clear that the Red Sox are dialed in on swing-and-miss stuff from their recent college pitching draft classes with little concern of BB%. I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of arms from the 2022 class similarly post big K-rates in 2023 based on their college performance and fastball characteristics. I will definitely chalk the Dobbins splits up to post-TJ comeback issues because 1. the walk numbers and 2. It's pretty unlikely that "figuring a guy out" takes someone from 1.13 ERA good to 8.90 ERA bad. Hopefully once he gets a full healthy offseason he'll shade back towards the latter. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 4, 2022 23:44:48 GMT -5
Wyatt Olds- not afraid of pitching inside I'm throwing a Bob Gibson comp on him... |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 5, 2022 0:24:40 GMT -5
I wonder if the highest K-rate in the system in 2022 will crack the SP60 in 2023.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 5, 2022 18:56:17 GMT -5
I wonder if the highest K-rate in the system in 2022 will crack the SP60 in 2023. I'm sorry but whom are you referring to? |
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,904
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Post by nomar on Nov 6, 2022 2:26:18 GMT -5
This was awesome. Thanks for putting it together.
There are a few that I was tracking throughout the season while thinking in the exact same manner, others I missed. No matter how much you pay attention to the farm, there are always more rabbit holes to dive into.
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