ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2022 3:05:37 GMT -5
MLBTR now has their arb estimates up, and if you assume they DFA Chang and Taylor, it's $2M less than the figure Spotrac has been using (the $2M being the estimate for that pair).
That leaves us with $75M, less of course if they want to save space for deadline acquisitions.
I've got a spreadsheet with all the major FA $ estimates and I'm about to add the signings to date to see how the market is running.
Do you expect them to DFA Taylor though? I'm expecting him to make the team if healthy. We're already a bit low on lefties and he was solid in '19 and '21. If Taylor is healthy and we're picking a lefty to walk the plank, I'd probably choose Darwinzon. They need to trim the 40-man, and lack of room will be an issue for most teams; plus claiming him on waivers means you pay him whether he can pitch or not. So I'm thinking they try to sneak him through waivers.
I've got Darwinzon already DFA's as well. But I can buy the argument that they keep Taykpr, but then that raises huge questions about fitting the necessary additions into the 40-man. I'm going to run that down in the proper thread.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2022 4:26:41 GMT -5
I've got a spreadsheet with all the major FA $ estimates and I'm about to add the signings to date to see how the market is running. The one thing we know for certain is that contacts for the bottom chunk of notable free agent pitchers are quite a bit bigger than projected.
I give the average prediction for FG (Ben Clemens), FG crowdsource (averaging mean and median), ESPN (Kiley McDaniel), and MLBTR. When other have chimed in, I give a second number after naming them. Bowden was higher than everyone else, and may have been the only guy who got the scale correct, but as he only projected 14 guys I adjusted him to match his total prediction for those guys with everyone else.
Eflin got 13.3, was projected for 10.75; 11.1 including Britton and Bowden. Clevinger got 12, was projected for 9.4 (with Britton but no ESPN)
Relievers have only MLBTR's projection:
Montero: got 11.5, not 8.0 Martin 8.75, not 7.0
We have one data point for major free agent hitters, and the big four collectively nailed it: Abreu got 19.5 and the projection was 19.4.
It makes sense to me that pitchers are getting more than expected, but not hitters, as we've been reminded that superior pitching is more than 50% of of winning a post-season series. (If the hitters are inflated, too, we are severely limited.)
So, big 4 estimates:
28.5 Bogaerts 14.5 Conforto 11.0 Haniger
I think the projectors did not factor in that Haniger would be the only FA OFer who hit righty. Britton had him at 15.
Let's say we can get Xander for 27 with the home town discount, and Haniger for 13. That's 54.5 for the three position players, and you want to spend 69.5 to leave room for a minor deadline trade or two ... that leaves $15M for a pitcher and that's consistent with adding just Eflin (and leaving a bit more headroom, or paying a bit more than I just projected). Who else might they go after instead?
Projections for the remaining SP. In reality, you'll expect an extra 10% at least ...
37.6 / 38.8 Verlander
26.0 / 27.0 Rodon 16.0 / 17.1 Eovaldi 14.6 / 15.9 Senga 13.7 / 13.9 Taillon 13.3 / 13.4 Walker 12.9 / 13.5 Syndergaard 12.5 / 13.2 Quintana 12.6 / 12.9 Manaea 12.0 / 12.0 Kluber 11.6 / 11.9 Heaney 10.5 / 10.6 Stripling 9.3 / 9.4 Wacha
The only pitching additions in the Eflin price range are Kluber, Heaney, Stirpling and Wacha. I'm not sure that any of thpse guys even makes the rotation.
However, if they trade for Laureano (e.g.) rather than sign Haniger, that adds 9.4M to spend on pitching, and that probably accommodates everyone on that list from Senga on down. One of those guys has to be someone with hidden upside, right? We can wish.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 4, 2022 12:07:15 GMT -5
Do you expect them to DFA Taylor though? I'm expecting him to make the team if healthy. We're already a bit low on lefties and he was solid in '19 and '21. If Taylor is healthy and we're picking a lefty to walk the plank, I'd probably choose Darwinzon. They need to trim the 40-man, and lack of room will be an issue for most teams; plus claiming him on waivers means you pay him whether he can pitch or not. So I'm thinking they try to sneak him through waivers.
I've got Darwinzon already DFA's as well. But I can buy the argument that they keep Taykpr, but then that raises huge questions about fitting the necessary additions into the 40-man. I'm going to run that down in the proper thread.
Taylor and Darwinzon would both be claimed by teams on waivers. But I also don't think they're that big of a loss for the Sox either. One can't stay healthy, and the other can't throw strikes. There is no big loss either way.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Dec 10, 2022 11:27:24 GMT -5
Using the info on this website - and of course things will change between now and the start of the season...but pondering what we've got at this point
SP
Sale - we are counting a lot on an off-injured pitcher. Paxton - ditto Pivetta - eats innings, but performs at 4th or 5th starter level Bello - lots of hope riding on his emergence Whitlock - lots of hope riding on his fitting into the starter role Acquisition - we clearly need something here
Long Roles
Crawford - will he take a step forward this year? Winkowski - ditto - but an even bigger step needed
Pen
Jansen - can he still be effective at his age? Martin - ditto Schreiber - can he repeat his lightning in a bottle season? Houck - is this the year he settles in to this role and stays healthy? Rodriguez - will he be effective in Boston? Barnes - can his late in the year resurgence continue?
Inactive pitchers
Taylor - health questions Brasier - is he finally cooked?
Lineup
McGuire - is he ready to play significant time in a key position? Casas - is he ready...and healthy? Story - is he healthy - and has he now settled in to playing here? Devers - where will his head be at - will he be traded - will he be signed - is he ready to be a leader? Acquisition Yoshida - how well will he hit MLB pitching in the US - and can he handle the pressure of playing here? Hernandez - what does he have left? Verdugo - can he take another step forward? Hosmer - is there anything left?
Bench
Acquisition Arroyo - can he stay healthy? Dalbec - is he simply AAAA, or can he be fixed and play a significant role? Refsnyder - can he do it again?
When I look at the above - it is clear it is a metastable state and things will likely look different in a few months. But I see lots of risk, some promise, and a lot of possible outcomes for this team - from surprise success, to a really rough year. Going to be fascinating, no matter what. With no JD and no Xander in the line up, it sure is different.
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