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Post by bosoxkc on Nov 9, 2022 15:42:17 GMT -5
Just trying to be comprehensive:
Sale Trade for young #2 (Pivetta, Yorke, Jimenez, DAlbec, Murphy, +) Eovaldi 3/45 Taillion 4/60 Bello
Whitlock Houck Barnes Crawford Scneider Paxton Kensley 2/27 trade for young closer type
Vazquez 2/16 (3/22) Casas Story Devers Bogaerts 7/180 Trade for MIL outfielder (Frelick/Williams/other). (Verdugo, Hosmer, Winkowski, Wickelman, Lugo +) Hernandez FA Mancini
McGuire Refsnyder Arroyo ?
Still under $225MM with all extras
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Post by beavertontim on Nov 10, 2022 9:54:13 GMT -5
I don't think 25.7 million per year will get Bogaerts. 30 million at a minimum.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 25, 2022 11:30:10 GMT -5
The Athletic: They have the Red Sox coming away with... Ross Stripling. It's very weird that the Red Sox are a big market team with a history of big free agent spending, have some very obvious needs, and have a ton of money to spend, and yet for some reason no one is projecting them to land a major free agent. Is it maybe just that they keep such a tight ship? No leaks = no rumors = no projections of FA signings? It makes me wonder how good a roster they could build without signing any $20 million free agents. Here's one $76 million choose your own adventure (fangraphs crowdsource AAVs)... Eovaldi - $17 million Heaney - $10 million Rogers - $7.5 million Haniger - $12 million Iglesias - $5 million Brantley - $12 million Vazquez - $8 million Other reliever - $4 million Rotation: Sale/Eovaldi/Paxton/Heaney/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta Bullpen: Rogers/Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Other Reliever/Taylor/Brasier Lineup: Kiké Devers Story Casas Haniger Brantley Verdugo Vazquez/McGuire Iglesias Ehh... If you could guarantee that lineup would stay healthy I wouldn't hate it. But you can't guarantee that of course. And there's such a huge dropoff at SS after the big 4, there's no way for that to not sting.
What it comes down to is that you can make a value signing in the $10-12 million range where you can get a 2 WAR player at a discount. But it's hard to get the big discount of a 5 WAR player for $25 million or whatever (a discount that's paid for at the end of the deal with the star player). So it becomes really difficult to make up the value they lose if Xander leaves.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 25, 2022 11:44:51 GMT -5
The Athletic: They have the Red Sox coming away with... Ross Stripling. It's very weird that the Red Sox are a big market team with a history of big free agent spending, have some very obvious needs, and have a ton of money to spend, and yet for some reason no one is projecting them to land a major free agent. Is it maybe just that they keep such a tight ship? No leaks = no rumors = no projections of FA signings? It makes me wonder how good a roster they could build without signing any $20 million free agents. Here's one $76 million choose your own adventure (fangraphs crowdsource AAVs)... Eovaldi - $17 million Heaney - $10 million Rogers - $7.5 million Haniger - $12 million Iglesias - $5 million Brantley - $12 million Vazquez - $8 million Other reliever - $4 million Rotation: Sale/Eovaldi/Paxton/Heaney/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta Bullpen: Rogers/Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Other Reliever/Taylor/Brasier Lineup: Kiké Devers Story Casas Haniger Brantley Verdugo Vazquez/McGuire Iglesias Ehh... If you could guarantee that lineup would stay healthy I wouldn't hate it. But you can't guarantee that of course. And there's such a huge dropoff at SS after the big 4, there's no way for that to not sting.
What it comes down to is that you can make a value signing in the $10-12 million range where you can get a 2 WAR player at a discount. But it's hard to get the big discount of a 5 WAR player for $25 million or whatever (a discount that's paid for at the end of the deal with the star player). So it becomes really difficult to make up the value they lose if Xander leaves.
I've been scratching my head as well at the "experts" complete lack of predictions for the Sox to sign a big $ player. I have to believe the sox sign one of the big names but maybe they won't, I guess we'll see. However looking at the team you outlined there of only FA signings less than 20 mil. I wouldn't hate that team. I think the pitching you outlined would be above average and give them a chance to win games but that lineup just screams average and that's at full strength. As you point out an injury or two to that lineup and it'd be below average by a fair amount if you ask me. Perhaps a trade for a better SS than Iglesias would be the answer to the lineup if one can be made. Very hard to project trades but I would have to expect a big trade or two if they do go the "cheaper" FA route this offseason.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 25, 2022 11:50:07 GMT -5
The Athletic: They have the Red Sox coming away with... Ross Stripling. It's very weird that the Red Sox are a big market team with a history of big free agent spending, have some very obvious needs, and have a ton of money to spend, and yet for some reason no one is projecting them to land a major free agent. Is it maybe just that they keep such a tight ship? No leaks = no rumors = no projections of FA signings? It makes me wonder how good a roster they could build without signing any $20 million free agents. Here's one $76 million choose your own adventure (fangraphs crowdsource AAVs)... Eovaldi - $17 million Heaney - $10 million Rogers - $7.5 million Haniger - $12 million Iglesias - $5 million Brantley - $12 million Vazquez - $8 million Other reliever - $4 million Rotation: Sale/Eovaldi/Paxton/Heaney/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta Bullpen: Rogers/Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Other Reliever/Taylor/Brasier Lineup: Kiké Devers Story Casas Haniger Brantley Verdugo Vazquez/McGuire Iglesias Ehh... If you could guarantee that lineup would stay healthy I wouldn't hate it. But you can't guarantee that of course. And there's such a huge dropoff at SS after the big 4, there's no way for that to not sting.
What it comes down to is that you can make a value signing in the $10-12 million range where you can get a 2 WAR player at a discount. But it's hard to get the big discount of a 5 WAR player for $25 million or whatever (a discount that's paid for at the end of the deal with the star player). So it becomes really difficult to make up the value they lose if Xander leaves.
Completely agree with your main premise here, I think it's extremely likely the Red Sox sign one of the top FAs and I'm a little confused by the commentary. On the short stop point you made though, if they do believe Story can handle it the best option after the big 4 might be Jean Segura or trading for Kolten Wong (assuming the rumors are true that they are looking to salary dump him). That's a 2.5 WAR guy and I think you could avoid the sting if they spent that money on an elite SP or Judge/Nimmo (obviously not within your hypothetical here) or use it to make a trade. Anyhow, probably upgrades the team more than Iglesias. I also kinda like Elvis Andrus in that role in this world.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 25, 2022 11:53:58 GMT -5
Realistically if they don't add an all star-caliber FA they *have* to add one by trade. Murphy? Reynolds? That opens up some intriguing scenrarios.
On Story/2B, I do think they got him to take over SS in 2023, but honestly I have a hard time seeing that at this point. I don't think his arm can handle it, and he took so well to 2B that, especially with the rule changes, he's been proven to have a ton of value there. My guess is that their thinking has shifted in that direction. Mine has at any rate.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 25, 2022 12:10:19 GMT -5
Realistically if they don't add an all star-caliber FA they *have* to add one by trade. Murphy? Reynolds? That opens up some intriguing scenrarios.
On Story/2B, I do think they got him to take over SS in 2023, but honestly I have a hard time seeing that at this point. I don't think his arm can handle it, and he took so while to 2B that, especially with the rule changes, he's been proven to have a ton of value there. My guess is that their thinking has shifted in that direction. Mine has at any rate.
The arm strength stats back that up, he's been at the bottom of the rankings the last two seasons, and I agree I'd rather see him at second. For what it's worth though, everyone considers Swanson a short stop signing and his arm this year was about the same as Story's in 2021. If the arm has trended in the right direction and they like him there I do think Segura is enough of an upgrade over Iglesias that the team would benefit overall. On the other hand this is a totally made up scenario that we both think is implausible.
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Post by notstarboard on Nov 25, 2022 12:16:27 GMT -5
The Athletic: They have the Red Sox coming away with... Ross Stripling. It's very weird that the Red Sox are a big market team with a history of big free agent spending, have some very obvious needs, and have a ton of money to spend, and yet for some reason no one is projecting them to land a major free agent. Is it maybe just that they keep such a tight ship? No leaks = no rumors = no projections of FA signings? It makes me wonder how good a roster they could build without signing any $20 million free agents. Here's one $76 million choose your own adventure (fangraphs crowdsource AAVs)... Eovaldi - $17 million Heaney - $10 million Rogers - $7.5 million Haniger - $12 million Iglesias - $5 million Brantley - $12 million Vazquez - $8 million Other reliever - $4 million Rotation: Sale/Eovaldi/Paxton/Heaney/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta Bullpen: Rogers/Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Other Reliever/Taylor/Brasier Lineup: Kiké Devers Story Casas Haniger Brantley Verdugo Vazquez/McGuire Iglesias Ehh... If you could guarantee that lineup would stay healthy I wouldn't hate it. But you can't guarantee that of course. And there's such a huge dropoff at SS after the big 4, there's no way for that to not sting.
What it comes down to is that you can make a value signing in the $10-12 million range where you can get a 2 WAR player at a discount. But it's hard to get the big discount of a 5 WAR player for $25 million or whatever (a discount that's paid for at the end of the deal with the star player). So it becomes really difficult to make up the value they lose if Xander leaves.
I 100% agree that it'll be hard to make up Bogaerts' value if he walks and we only fill our holes with mid and low-tier FAs. I would much rather have a guy like Bogaerts than Brantley, Iglesias, and Vazquez (~$25 million). I've been banging the "Wong/McGuire are good enough" and "don't sign a DH" drums all offseason, though, so I could see some disagreement among fans.
Elite SS seems like the play given the relatively strong FA class, relatively weak OF class, and the injury risk at the top of the SP ranks. I also don't love the idea of a guy like Haniger in RF. I think he's a good bounce back candidate with the bat, but his glove is weak, so putting him in RF at Fenway would be very sketchy. People might argue we could just move Verdugo to RF, but I don't think Verdugo is an acceptable option there either. He was decent back in 2020, but he's regressed quite a bit defensively since then. He's even a bad LF now. My hope is that we trade for a guy like Thomas or Reynolds to play RF and keep Verdugo in left.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 25, 2022 12:21:53 GMT -5
Realistically if they don't add an all star-caliber FA they *have* to add one by trade. Murphy? Reynolds? That opens up some intriguing scenrarios.
On Story/2B, I do think they got him to take over SS in 2023, but honestly I have a hard time seeing that at this point. I don't think his arm can handle it, and he took so while to 2B that, especially with the rule changes, he's been proven to have a ton of value there. My guess is that their thinking has shifted in that direction. Mine has at any rate.
The arm strength stats back that up, he's been at the bottom of the rankings the last two seasons, and I agree I'd rather see him at second. For what it's worth though, everyone considers Swanson a short stop signing and his arm this year was about the same as Story's in 2021. If the arm has trended in the right direction and they like him there I do think Segura is enough of an upgrade over Iglesias that the team would benefit overall. On the other hand this is a totally made up scenario that we both think is implausible. Ha! Well I don't think it's implausible that they don't sign a Big 4 shortstop, specifically. There are clearly more than four teams in the market for those guys and someone's going to lose out. What I think is implausible is that they don't add any all star-caliber players at all, but like I said they could do that through trade. Or they could trade for Kolten Wong or Amed Rosario (ematz' suggestion) and then sign Judge or Nimmo or Verlander...
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Post by incandenza on Nov 25, 2022 12:27:50 GMT -5
The Athletic: They have the Red Sox coming away with... Ross Stripling. It's very weird that the Red Sox are a big market team with a history of big free agent spending, have some very obvious needs, and have a ton of money to spend, and yet for some reason no one is projecting them to land a major free agent. Is it maybe just that they keep such a tight ship? No leaks = no rumors = no projections of FA signings? It makes me wonder how good a roster they could build without signing any $20 million free agents. Here's one $76 million choose your own adventure (fangraphs crowdsource AAVs)... Eovaldi - $17 million Heaney - $10 million Rogers - $7.5 million Haniger - $12 million Iglesias - $5 million Brantley - $12 million Vazquez - $8 million Other reliever - $4 million Rotation: Sale/Eovaldi/Paxton/Heaney/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta Bullpen: Rogers/Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Other Reliever/Taylor/Brasier Lineup: Kiké Devers Story Casas Haniger Brantley Verdugo Vazquez/McGuire Iglesias Ehh... If you could guarantee that lineup would stay healthy I wouldn't hate it. But you can't guarantee that of course. And there's such a huge dropoff at SS after the big 4, there's no way for that to not sting.
What it comes down to is that you can make a value signing in the $10-12 million range where you can get a 2 WAR player at a discount. But it's hard to get the big discount of a 5 WAR player for $25 million or whatever (a discount that's paid for at the end of the deal with the star player). So it becomes really difficult to make up the value they lose if Xander leaves.
I 100% agree that it'll be hard to make up Bogaerts' value if he walks and we only fill our holes with mid and low-tier FAs. I would much rather have a guy like Bogaerts than Brantley, Iglesias, and Vazquez (~$25 million). I've been banging the "Wong/McGuire are good enough" and "don't sign a DH" drums all offseason, though, so I could see some disagreement among fans.
Elite SS seems like the play given the relatively strong FA class, relatively weak OF class, and the injury risk at the top of the SP ranks. I also don't love the idea of a guy like Haniger in RF. I think he's a good bounce back candidate with the bat, but his glove is weak, so putting him in RF at Fenway would be very sketchy. People might argue we could just move Verdugo to RF, but I don't think Verdugo is an acceptable option there either. He was decent back in 2020, but he's regressed quite a bit defensively since then. He's even a bad LF now. My hope is that we trade for a guy like Thomas or Reynolds to play RF and keep Verdugo in left. 100% agree with all this. One of the problems with spreading the spending around is that they already have some decent options they'd be burying. I don't think Vazquez would add $8 million of value relative to McGuire/Wong, but I felt compelled to add him because I don't know who else you would add. Even in RF, I'm not totally sure Haniger is an upgrade on Refsnyder.
Whereas if you concentrate a bunch of WAR at one position, and particularly SS, it's going to be mostly surplus over the other available options.
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Post by scottysmalls on Nov 25, 2022 12:53:05 GMT -5
The arm strength stats back that up, he's been at the bottom of the rankings the last two seasons, and I agree I'd rather see him at second. For what it's worth though, everyone considers Swanson a short stop signing and his arm this year was about the same as Story's in 2021. If the arm has trended in the right direction and they like him there I do think Segura is enough of an upgrade over Iglesias that the team would benefit overall. On the other hand this is a totally made up scenario that we both think is implausible. Ha! Well I don't think it's implausible that they don't sign a Big 4 shortstop, specifically. There are clearly more than four teams in the market for those guys and someone's going to lose out. What I think is implausible is that they don't add any all star-caliber players at all, but like I said they could do that through trade. Or they could trade for Kolten Wong or Amed Rosario (ematz' suggestion) and then sign Judge or Nimmo or Verlander... Gotta say of all the free agents, if you put long term concerns aside, Judge most perfectly fits the roster/ballpark and of course is just the best player. Judge + Iglesias/Andrus/Segura is a significantly better combination than Bogaerts/Correa + Haniger/Brantley/Bellinger/whoever from a pure talent perspective and likely isn't that much more expensive. Plus it weakens your direct rival. Long term health issues, rivalry, bigger contract, all make it unlikely. But if the goal was just to maximize 2023 projections by signing FAs I think that would be the way to go.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 25, 2022 13:54:27 GMT -5
The Athletic: They have the Red Sox coming away with... Ross Stripling. It's very weird that the Red Sox are a big market team with a history of big free agent spending, have some very obvious needs, and have a ton of money to spend, and yet for some reason no one is projecting them to land a major free agent. Is it maybe just that they keep such a tight ship? No leaks = no rumors = no projections of FA signings? It makes me wonder how good a roster they could build without signing any $20 million free agents. Here's one $76 million choose your own adventure (fangraphs crowdsource AAVs)... Eovaldi - $17 million Heaney - $10 million Rogers - $7.5 million Haniger - $12 million Iglesias - $5 million Brantley - $12 million Vazquez - $8 million Other reliever - $4 million Rotation: Sale/Eovaldi/Paxton/Heaney/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta Bullpen: Rogers/Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Other Reliever/Taylor/Brasier Lineup: Kiké Devers Story Casas Haniger Brantley Verdugo Vazquez/McGuire Iglesias Ehh... If you could guarantee that lineup would stay healthy I wouldn't hate it. But you can't guarantee that of course. And there's such a huge dropoff at SS after the big 4, there's no way for that to not sting.
What it comes down to is that you can make a value signing in the $10-12 million range where you can get a 2 WAR player at a discount. But it's hard to get the big discount of a 5 WAR player for $25 million or whatever (a discount that's paid for at the end of the deal with the star player). So it becomes really difficult to make up the value they lose if Xander leaves.
Avoiding top tier free agents means they'll probably have to go the trade route. People have mentioned Yelich + burnes/woodruff, but I think a package of Yelich, Adames, Devin Williams would be perfect for our roster. They can send Verdugo back for $$ savings, or send a mid-tier prospect to get Milwaukee to eat some salary. This fills an OF spot, SS, Closer while only spending $35ish million. Allows them to extend Devers AND add more. I know yelich isn't ideal, but he is still productive (2.3 WAR last year) and with his profile, and new rules, he could be in for a bit of a bounce-back year. I don't love it, but under the limitations of "no $20+ mill free agents" I think this would be a pretty good idea for roster construction.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Nov 25, 2022 14:15:45 GMT -5
The Athletic: They have the Red Sox coming away with... Ross Stripling. It's very weird that the Red Sox are a big market team with a history of big free agent spending, have some very obvious needs, and have a ton of money to spend, and yet for some reason no one is projecting them to land a major free agent. Is it maybe just that they keep such a tight ship? No leaks = no rumors = no projections of FA signings? It makes me wonder how good a roster they could build without signing any $20 million free agents. Here's one $76 million choose your own adventure (fangraphs crowdsource AAVs)... Eovaldi - $17 million Heaney - $10 million Rogers - $7.5 million Haniger - $12 million Iglesias - $5 million Brantley - $12 million Vazquez - $8 million Other reliever - $4 million Rotation: Sale/Eovaldi/Paxton/Heaney/Bello/Whitlock/Pivetta Bullpen: Rogers/Houck/Barnes/Schreiber/Rodriguez/Other Reliever/Taylor/Brasier Lineup: Kiké Devers Story Casas Haniger Brantley Verdugo Vazquez/McGuire Iglesias Ehh... If you could guarantee that lineup would stay healthy I wouldn't hate it. But you can't guarantee that of course. And there's such a huge dropoff at SS after the big 4, there's no way for that to not sting.
What it comes down to is that you can make a value signing in the $10-12 million range where you can get a 2 WAR player at a discount. But it's hard to get the big discount of a 5 WAR player for $25 million or whatever (a discount that's paid for at the end of the deal with the star player). So it becomes really difficult to make up the value they lose if Xander leaves.
Avoiding top tier free agents means they'll probably have to go the trade route. People have mentioned Yelich + burnes/woodruff, but I think a package of Yelich, Adames, Devin Williams would be perfect for our roster. They can send Verdugo back for $$ savings, or send a mid-tier prospect to get Milwaukee to eat some salary. This fills an OF spot, SS, Closer while only spending $35ish million. Allows them to extend Devers AND add more. I know yelich isn't ideal, but he is still productive (2.3 WAR last year) and with his profile, and new rules, he could be in for a bit of a bounce-back year. I don't love it, but under the limitations of "no $20+ mill free agents" I think this would be a pretty good idea for roster construction. I don't really get the idea behind trading Verdugo. He is one of only 2 outfielders we currently have on the 40 man that is capable of being a starter on a major league team. The outfield is an enormous weakness on this roster as is, the idea that we can deal from a position of weakness doesn't make much sense to me.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 25, 2022 14:48:44 GMT -5
Avoiding top tier free agents means they'll probably have to go the trade route. People have mentioned Yelich + burnes/woodruff, but I think a package of Yelich, Adames, Devin Williams would be perfect for our roster. They can send Verdugo back for $$ savings, or send a mid-tier prospect to get Milwaukee to eat some salary. This fills an OF spot, SS, Closer while only spending $35ish million. Allows them to extend Devers AND add more. I know yelich isn't ideal, but he is still productive (2.3 WAR last year) and with his profile, and new rules, he could be in for a bit of a bounce-back year. I don't love it, but under the limitations of "no $20+ mill free agents" I think this would be a pretty good idea for roster construction. I don't really get the idea behind trading Verdugo. He is one of only 2 outfielders we currently have on the 40 man that is capable of being a starter on a major league team. The outfield is an enormous weakness on this roster as is, the idea that we can deal from a position of weakness doesn't make much sense to me. I hear you, the thought was yelich and Verdugo both don't profile well for RF at Fenway. I agree and would go the prospect route, but if the goal is $$ savings then Verdugo would be an option
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Post by natesp4 on Dec 2, 2022 17:48:15 GMT -5
Alright I'm ready to present my pipe dream for the rest of the off season. This is based largely on me wildly overanalyzing them keeping Brasier to mean they're blowing past the tax limit this year.
1. Overpay and give Xander SS money to play LF. Starting to think keeping Xander is key in getting Devers to extend.
2. Sign Correa for SS
3. Trade Verdugo, Houck, Yorke, and Duran to Marlins for Pablo Lopez. Dugie likely gets flipped at the deadline for a nice return for the Marlins and they can give Houck and Duran the run they need to get through growing pains.
4. Sign Haniger for RF. Not the savior of the team, I get that he's basically a Renfroe clone, but they could use a solid average regular.
5. Sign Josh Bell for DH
Bonus: Sign Senga, let Eovaldi walk for the pick. Helps them not have to rely on any of Sale/Paxton/Whitlock to stick in the rotation and be healthy
Probably <1% chance this all happens. Even if they overspent like this, it requires the players involved to also want it. As Eflin proves, not everyone is dying to come up north to Boston.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 2, 2022 18:12:43 GMT -5
Alright I'm ready to present my pipe dream for the rest of the off season. This is based largely on me wildly overanalyzing them keeping Brasier to mean they're blowing past the tax limit this year. 1. Overpay and give Xander SS money to play LF. Starting to think keeping Xander is key in getting Devers to extend. 2. Sign Correa for SS 3. Trade Verdugo, Houck, Yorke, and Duran to Marlins for Pablo Lopez. Dugie likely gets flipped at the deadline for a nice return for the Marlins and they can give Houck and Duran the run they need to get through growing pains. 4. Sign Haniger for RF. Not the savior of the team, I get that he's basically a Renfroe clone, but they could use a solid average regular. 5. Sign Josh Bell for DH Bonus: Sign Senga, let Eovaldi walk for the pick. Helps them not have to rely on any of Sale/Paxton/Whitlock to stick in the rotation and be healthy Probably <1% chance this all happens. Even if they overspent like this, it requires the players involved to also want it. As Eflin proves, not everyone is dying to come up north to Boston. So in this scenario, you have Xander getting booted from his position for Carlos Correa? Just gonna stop you there
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Post by natesp4 on Dec 2, 2022 18:22:13 GMT -5
Alright I'm ready to present my pipe dream for the rest of the off season. This is based largely on me wildly overanalyzing them keeping Brasier to mean they're blowing past the tax limit this year. 1. Overpay and give Xander SS money to play LF. Starting to think keeping Xander is key in getting Devers to extend. 2. Sign Correa for SS 3. Trade Verdugo, Houck, Yorke, and Duran to Marlins for Pablo Lopez. Dugie likely gets flipped at the deadline for a nice return for the Marlins and they can give Houck and Duran the run they need to get through growing pains. 4. Sign Haniger for RF. Not the savior of the team, I get that he's basically a Renfroe clone, but they could use a solid average regular. 5. Sign Josh Bell for DH Bonus: Sign Senga, let Eovaldi walk for the pick. Helps them not have to rely on any of Sale/Paxton/Whitlock to stick in the rotation and be healthy Probably <1% chance this all happens. Even if they overspent like this, it requires the players involved to also want it. As Eflin proves, not everyone is dying to come up north to Boston. So in this scenario, you have Xander getting booted from his position for Carlos Correa? Just gonna stop you there What standpoint are you saying that from? It being unrealistic or you don't actually want it? I acknowledged this all has a microscopic chance of happening but I guess I'd argue there still is a chance Xander would be willing. My uneducated opinion is he refused a position change in large part because he was going into a contract year wanting to get SS money. If the Sox give it to him, does he really care all that much where he plays?
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Dec 2, 2022 18:25:03 GMT -5
So in this scenario, you have Xander getting booted from his position for Carlos Correa? Just gonna stop you there What standpoint are you saying that from? It being unrealistic or you don't actually want it? I acknowledged this all has a microscopic chance of happening but I guess I'd argue there still is a chance Xander would be willing. My uneducated opinion is he refused a position change in large part because he was going into a contract year wanting to get SS money. If the Sox give it to him, does he really care all that much where he plays? Of course he's going to care, that whole locker room would care. Did Jeter move when ARod went to NY? I don't even think Cora would even entertain the idea of even having the conversation with Xander
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Post by natesp4 on Dec 2, 2022 18:40:40 GMT -5
What standpoint are you saying that from? It being unrealistic or you don't actually want it? I acknowledged this all has a microscopic chance of happening but I guess I'd argue there still is a chance Xander would be willing. My uneducated opinion is he refused a position change in large part because he was going into a contract year wanting to get SS money. If the Sox give it to him, does he really care all that much where he plays? Of course he's going to care, that whole locker room would care. Did Jeter move when ARod went to NY? I don't even think Cora would even entertain the idea of even having the conversation with Xander I think that's a fair criticism, I don't disagree with you. Thought I caveated my post enough to make it clear that this is what I want to happen not what I think will happen.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 3, 2022 21:11:05 GMT -5
MLBTR now has their arb estimates up, and if you assume they DFA Chang and Taylor, it's $2M less than the figure Spotrac has been using (the $2M being the estimate for that pair).
That leaves us with $75M, less of course if they want to save space for deadline acquisitions.
I've got a spreadsheet with all the major FA $ estimates and I'm about to add the signings to date to see how the market is running.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 3, 2022 21:22:16 GMT -5
Chang got nontendered
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 3, 2022 21:29:09 GMT -5
MLBTR now has their arb estimates up, and if you assume they DFA Chang and Taylor, it's $2M less than the figure Spotrac has been using (the $2M being the estimate for that pair).
That leaves us with $75M, less of course if they want to save space for deadline acquisitions.
I've got a spreadsheet with all the major FA $ estimates and I'm about to add the signings to date to see how the market is running.
Do you expect them to DFA Taylor though? I'm expecting him to make the team if healthy. We're already a bit low on lefties and he was solid in '19 and '21. If Taylor is healthy and we're picking a lefty to walk the plank, I'd probably choose Darwinzon.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 3, 2022 22:13:56 GMT -5
Also the arb estimates have been up for months.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 3, 2022 22:20:29 GMT -5
MLBTR now has their arb estimates up, and if you assume they DFA Chang and Taylor, it's $2M less than the figure Spotrac has been using (the $2M being the estimate for that pair).
That leaves us with $75M, less of course if they want to save space for deadline acquisitions.
I've got a spreadsheet with all the major FA $ estimates and I'm about to add the signings to date to see how the market is running.
FYI Eric, Red Sox payroll on twitter has a public spreadsheet with arb estimates and the luxury tax line, he’s had the MLBTR estimates included there for a while. It’s 74.5M per him before factoring in a potential Taylor DFA.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,933
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 4, 2022 2:53:42 GMT -5
Also the arb estimates have been up for months. I looked again and again for the arb estimates and could only find a link to last years. Or did they just forget to update the link?
Chang = brain cramp.
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