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Your Top 2 "Untouchable" Prospects
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Post by bosox904 on Nov 14, 2022 15:53:23 GMT -5
Probably Bleis and Mayer. But I wouldn't really make any prospect untouchable if the right player was traded for, which would pretty much be scenarios that would never happen. For example if for some reason all of Arizona's front office and ownership got amnesia and offered Corbin Carrol up for Bleis and Mayer, I'd do it in a heartbeat.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 14, 2022 16:00:19 GMT -5
Bello Mata The Sox must develop front line arms because they are otherwise so costly to acquire. Bello is considered a graduate (per SoxProspect). Casas is very nearly a graduate also, and I would claim them both as keepers (all 7 years of controllability make them very valuable). That being the case, I would agree with Guidas and pick: Mayer Rafaela
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 14, 2022 16:08:43 GMT -5
Mayer Casas Rafaela was very close
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Post by trajanacc on Nov 14, 2022 16:10:05 GMT -5
There's no such thing as untouchable, never has been.
It's whichever two prospects have the highest trade value--at present, probably Mayer and Casas.
Even if you really really value pitching, it doesn't make sense to value Bello and Mata more as prospects, since theoretically you could trade Mayer and Casas for two even better pitching prospects if you wanted to.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 14, 2022 16:52:27 GMT -5
I'll preface this with the concept of "untouchable" shouldn't exist. If someone were to offer 2 Marcelo Mayers for Marcelo Mayer we would accept that every time. For the sake of this topic... Bleis, Mayer, Bello would be my prospects that would have to be an enormous return. The "untouchable" caveat was covered in my intro, that's why "untouchable" is in quotes.
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Post by xdmo on Nov 14, 2022 20:50:03 GMT -5
Mayer Casas Rafaela was very close I think Rafaela falls into the Manny Margot category. The Sox future in CF is probably Rafaela because the Sox have zero depth in the future, but there's enough questions about Rafaela's bat to not make him a untouchable. I think this thread is worded the wrong way. It should be named- "Which 2 under 25 year old players are not worth trading in the Sox organization?" Bello is one of them. Bello is a keeper. The Sox haven't had a pitching prospect who's this much of a lock since Clemens or Lester, outside the obvious health questions every pitcher faces. The other should be Casas, but his counting stats don't jump out on paper yet. It might get there, but I'm hesitant to go there. Mayer should be one of them, but he's not close enough in proximity to be that yet. Same for Bleis. You refuse every deal that doesn't include a young superstar like Tatis as Incadeza mentioned, but not they're not untouchable. So for me, it might be just Bello.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 14, 2022 21:23:00 GMT -5
With all the parameter caveats noted above...
Top 2 under 25: 1. Bello 2. Mayer
Top 2 prospects: 1. Mayer 2. Rafaela
Both categories firm in my mind.
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Post by chr31ter on Nov 14, 2022 22:28:28 GMT -5
Not too into the idea of trading any big prospect right now, but I certainly wouldn’t call Rafaela untouchable. It depends on the org’s actual view of him. If they think he can be an average or better hitter, you probably have to be blown away. But if they see more of a Victor Robles type of outcome as more likely, then he would make sense to sell now after a breakout season. Yeah, I should probably clarify my position on trading Rafaela. I don't see many OFs in the organization that I would trust to play RF at Fenway Park. Rafaela is clearly one of them. I concede that the bat is a bit questionable, but if he can figure out how to become a reasonable major league hitter, then I think his ability to fill a hole in RF at Fenway and his defensive versatility would make him an incredibly valuable chess piece. It would have to be a "no brainer" kind of offer to get me to deal him at this point. And I just don't see another team accepting him as the centerpiece of that kind of deal.
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Post by blizzards39 on Nov 14, 2022 23:58:45 GMT -5
Meyer and Bleis Bello would be real close if still eligible. Also real high on Casas. Mostly because he is so close. Rafalella, yorke, mata. I’d say see what you can get. I’m not oposed
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Post by tjb21 on Nov 15, 2022 10:27:56 GMT -5
Mayer and Bleis. These are the two building blocks.
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Post by kwodes on Nov 15, 2022 12:34:53 GMT -5
I'll preface this with the concept of "untouchable" shouldn't exist. If someone were to offer 2 Marcelo Mayers for Marcelo Mayer we would accept that every time. For the sake of this topic... Bleis, Mayer, Bello would be my prospects that would have to be an enormous return. The "untouchable" caveat was covered in my intro, that's why "untouchable" is in quotes. My reading comprehension is extraordinary
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Post by orcoaster on Nov 16, 2022 23:51:29 GMT -5
Marcelo Mayer. He's highly valued by the team and he plays a premium position. He has real Franchise Player potential. Because it's more risky to trade him away than it is to keep him, he's more valuable to the Red Sox than he would be to most other teams. To pry him away, a team would have to offer a truckload of value. It's not impossible, but it's very, very unlikely. That's great, because I'm looking forward to seeing his Fenway debut one day.
Brayan Bello, if he's still a prospect. Frontline starting pitchers are the most valued asset in baseball. Bello is close to an average starter already and is brimming with potential for more, quite possibly much more. It's hard to imagine a trade moving Bello that makes the Red Sox better. I'll go out on a limb and proclaim Bello a player, not a prospect. He's the kind of player we need to trade for, not away.
If Bello is a post-prospect, the choice is much more difficult.
Tristan Casas looks to have a floor of an Average Regular with potential for Regular All Star and maybe more. But there are injury concerns and he plays a pedestrian position. I could see where the Red Sox improve by dealing Casas for premium value and Hosmer plays first for a season or two. I could live with that depending on the return.
Bryan Mata is a tempting choice, but we don't know if he will start or relieve. His injury is still a question mark. He could have a very high ceiling, but he could also flame out. He could be a valuable chip in the right deal. If the Red Sox believe he will be a healthy starter in the majors, he's probably the choice, but there are too many unknowns here. He may simply be untradeable because no other team values him as highly as the Red Sox do.
Ceddanne Rafaela seems like a perfect trade candidate to me right now. His media buzz may have him a bit overrated. If he turns out to be a glorified, but excellent utility player, the time to move him is now. Don't get me wrong, I love the player and I'm excited to see him play all over the Fenway diamond this summer, but even if he turns into Kiké Hernandez, he could be a moveable chip this winter.
Bleis, Gonzalez, Perales are super prospects, but they are WAY too young to be projected as untouchable. Bleis is the most exciting to dream on, but he's 18 and four years away. A lot can happen between now and then. If he could get you the missing piece, you do it. Fortunately, the Red Sox have more than a few missing pieces so I think the chances of Bleis being traded are pretty low. As he continues to develop, those chances get even more remote.
So I guess my answer is Mayer. Just Mayer. Anybody else? I'd like to hear the offer before I say no.
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Nov 17, 2022 7:58:47 GMT -5
To me, "untouchable" doesn't mean the most perfect prospects in the system, it means the ones that don't make sense to trade away for a variety of reason.
#1 for me would be Bleis. It's hard to imagine he has a ton of trade value at the moment, considering how far away he is. That's not to say he doesn't have any, he's still a top 100 prospect. But the value of his upside is not linear. To me, trading him right now would be like cashing out for $200 on your $100 Leicester city bet halfway through the season they won the EPL. His upside just makes him difficult to trade with where his value is right now.
Of course, some team could love him, making that equation more complicated. Which is why it's "untouchable".
The other guy I would say is Mayer. He is already valued really highly, but he also probably has more value to the Red Sox than most other teams, making it unlikely a trade makes sense. They need a long term shortstop option and they need high level prospects.
Now even Mayer could be traded, they could really like their other SS options in the minors and they could invest in a FA this year that they think will stick there for a while.
But of all their prospects I think Bleis and Mayer would be the most difficult to trade, at least from a pure value standpoint.
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Post by bosoxnation on Nov 24, 2022 3:15:46 GMT -5
why 2? 😂
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TearsIn04
Veteran
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Post by TearsIn04 on Nov 24, 2022 10:49:13 GMT -5
I have to go with the best prospect in the org and the best P prospect in the org: MM and BB. (If I can't go with Bello because he's no longer a prospect, I'll sub in Mata.)
I'm in big on Casas because I love the plate discipline and power, but offense is easier to get at 1B than at other positions. I can't be as high as others on Bleis and Rafaela until I see their BB rates tick up. CR had BABIPs of .409 and .319 at Greenville and Portland.
BABIP doesn't play as well at the ML level where guys are better at catching the ball. If you normalize his BABIP, his BA, OBP and OPS will look much less impressive.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Nov 24, 2022 11:41:45 GMT -5
My work hours the last few years have prevented me from going to Sea Dogs games. So, since I get more feel from watching the kids live than the metrics which frankly beyond simple OPS overwhelm me, I do not have the data to give a good response.
Intuitively, I want to see starting pitching come out of the system and be part of the next elite Sox team. So, I'll say Mata and Walter are my top 2. Assuming the Sox sign one of the big 4 SS this winter, Mayer becomes a top trade option. Cassas really impressed in his cup of coffee this past season but as has been pointed out plays an easy to fill position and only that position as an option. One or both could be used to acquire soon to be post arbitration pitching, catcher or outfielder from a small payroll team.
Good news is that I am retiring on 12/31/22 and live 30 minutes from Hadlock Field, so many games are once again in my future !!!
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Post by Guidas on Nov 24, 2022 12:16:54 GMT -5
Should it have been one? Once we get past two, it become more limiting to make a deal on the level of getting a top talent like Pedro, Schilling, Josh Beckett, etc.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 24, 2022 12:18:18 GMT -5
My work hours the last few years have prevented me from going to Sea Dogs games. So, since I get more feel from watching the kids live than the metrics which frankly beyond simple OPS overwhelm me, I do not have the data to give a good response. Intuitively, I want to see starting pitching come out of the system and be part of the next elite Sox team. So, I'll say Mata and Walter are my top 2. Assuming the Sox sign one of the big 4 SS this winter, Mayer becomes a top trade option. Cassas really impressed in his cup of coffee this past season but as has been pointed out plays an easy to fill position and only that position as an option. One or both could be used to acquire soon to be post arbitration pitching, catcher or outfielder from a small payroll team. Good news is that I am retiring on 12/31/22 and live 30 minutes from Hadlock Field, so many games are once again in my future !!!God bless and congratulations!!
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Post by larrycook on Nov 24, 2022 19:26:18 GMT -5
Top two position players: Mayer Bleis
Top two pitching prospects: Perales Rodriguez-Cruz
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