How far away are the Red Sox from contending?

Ask me in a couple months

Too much money available to spend to know anything right now. They can contend immediately with the right moves

Phillies won 87 games and made it to the World Series, don’t have to necessarily be infallible to be a contender these days. You also don’t know who is going to improve and/or surprise that is already on the roster

They’ll for sure need to add impact talent though- the good news is they have the money and some prospect capital to do that

I know it is apples and oranges, but 2012 - worst. 2013 - World Series champs

I won't predict what 2023 will look like in terms of likely contention until I see how Bloom approaches things - so I am just going to sit back and relax, bask in the Celts and Bruins, and watch those who post here, who are much more knowledgeable than I on what the options will likely be.

I'd just add the Phillies had Harper, JT, Hoskins going into the season and then added Castellanos and Schwarber to bolster their lineup while giving Bohm another season to develop. The Phillies also had two frontline starters in Nola and Wheeler and were able to piece together the rest of their rotation and bullpen.

Are the Red Sox as close as the Phillies were entering this 2021 offseason? We only have Story and Devers right now and I don't see the Red Sox currently having a single front line starter rivaling Nola or Wheeler unless Sale returns to form and stays healthy. It just seems like our best case scenario requires a ton of things going right that shouldn't be expected to happen. 

With the balanced schedule and the expanded playoffs divisions are not all that pertinent anymore. You have to look where you fall in the whole of the AL.
The top 2 teams get the byes and a huge advantage but no gaurantee.
Looking at the AL as it stands now this is what I see.
A teams - Astros
B teams - mariners, Jays, MFY, Guardians, rays
C teams - Sox, Sox, twins, orioles
D teams - angels, tigers, rangers
E teams - royals, As
Basicly Sox are on cusp. Do not need to improve that much to be playoff team. Unlikely to be able to improve enough to be top 2 in AL.
So what are your goals and expectations. I think do everything you can do, without mortgaging the future, in order to improve. Once you feel you have that top 2 team then push the chips in.

I'll go with 2023 if ownership is willing to write a few checks (including a tax check). I'd spend $85-90m on deGrom, Bogie, and Jansen. If we're talking $120m total, throw in Nimmo and you still have a little to fill in with some role players. Jansen is a one-year deal, which comes off the books to add to a Devers extension in '24. Some of that could also pay for the parade...

I'm interested to see what kind of trades Bloom can make with the major league roster. He really hasn't done that yet in his time here. We won't know half the answers to the roster until we see what he can do there.

The free agent market is pretty straightforward. It's just a matter of seeing who Bloom values most there.

The answer to the question of this thread is directly related to how well Bloom can trade and who he values in free agency.

If the last several years have taught us anything it should be the difference between first and last isn't just a roster move or two but it could be the difference between a clean bill of health and a mountain of injury.

You may say the Sox overperformed in 2021, and I'd agree, but it's probably also true that they underperformed in 2022. There are plenty of permutations of the future that have the Sox winning over 90 games next year and they are very reasonable and within the budget. However, they could just as easily lay an egg next year.

As someone who considers himself a realistic pragmatic person, I also happen to be an optimist so excuse me while I prepare for a 2023 title run.

according to FanGraphs very early power ranking post (from today) blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-power-rankings-the-beginning-of-the-offseason/

We are a Tier 4 (out of 6 tiers) team, essentially predicted to be .500 - a High Variance Could - Be team.

From the article - "The Red Sox find themselves at a bit of a crossroads. Xander Bogaerts opting out of his contract makes their lineup feel a lot less intimidating. With Trevor Story locked up for five more seasons and Rafael Devers the subject of long-term extension talks, they could try to build around those two. It would be difficult; there are tons of holes on the roster and few major league-ready solutions in the farm system. If they do try to build another contender with what they have, they absolutely need Chris Sale to be healthy next year; his last three seasons have been wiped out by injuries."

Agreed. I do find these articles interesting, hence me posting. Those who read can assess them as they wish.

A misconception that shows up in the threads about the 2023 Red Sox is the idea that they can fill a lot of holes because they have a lot of money to spend. I don't see it.

Three points:
1. FG Roster Resource has them at $151M, including arb estimates, but not including X or Eo. That's against a LTT of $233M. Assuming they stay under the LTT - and they should since 2023 is not a GFIN year and they foolishly went over it to finish last in 2022 - they have $81M to spend.

2. But they shouldn't spend the entire $81M because they'll need room for deadline acquisitions if they contend, or even if they don't contend but CB wants to do a genius buy-and-sell thing at the deadline (snark intended).

3. They can't tie up all their FA spending on long-term contracts because that'll cannibalize payroll for 2024 and beyond. Whatever amount they spend should include some one- and two-year deals.

So, where does that leave us?

1. X should be the priority and FWIW CB says he is. Let's say that costs $26M in AAV. We're down to $55M for 2023.

2. I don't think they want to pay Eo $20M and will work out a longer deal. Let's say it's two years at $15M per. Now we have the same team that just finished last and $40M left to spend before we hit the LTT.

3. The BP is probably the cheapest place to make a significant add. I like Andrew Chafin. MLBTR has him projected at two years/$9M in AAV. $31M left to spend.

At that point, we still need an OF, a DH, another SP and at least one low-cost, let's-take-a-shot RP. Kodai Senga and Jose Abreu are probably out of reach.

It think it points to CB waiting until deep into the off-season to pick through the leftovers and taking flyers on guys to fill some of these holes. I wouldn't be surprised to see a lukewarm JDM market and him back on a modest one- or two-year contract. MLBTR says two years, $15M AAV, which would would leave  $16M under the LTT, though I have a feeling he could cost less than MLBTR projects.

I'd look to someone like Michael Brantley, assuming his shoulder is sound) as as LHH platoon with Refsnyder in LF. MLBTR says one year, $15M, but if he's a Dumpster-dive signing in Feb. it should be less.

They could still leave some money for cheapo, one-year deals for a low-budget RP and a utility-type position player who can give them some roster flexibility - a better version of what Marwin Gonzalez turned out to be in 2021.

Against RHP:
Dugo, LF
X, SS
Raffy, 3B
JDM, DH
Casas, 1B
Story 2B
Brantley, LF
KKH, CF
McGuire, C
KKH, CF


Rotation in no particular order:
Eo, Bello, Whitlock, Pivetta, low-budget signee on a one-year deal - Hill? That would leave Sale and Paxton to make however many starts they can, plus Kutter, as rotation fill-ins.

High-leverage BP guys:
Chafin, Schreiber, Houck, whoever else steps into the circle of trust - Barnes? Kutter? Brandon Walter?

I get the 2012 off-season comparisons to this off-season, but I think there's a big difference. The 2012 team struggled, but still had a strong core already under contract (Ortiz, ellsbury, pedroia, middlebrooks, Lester, lackey, buchholz, with xander in AAA). Where is the strong core on this team currently under contract? Devers, bello, casas?, story, Verdugo?, pivetta?, am I missing someone obvious? It just seems like the 2012 team had the core and just needed complementary pieces whereas this team needs some more core pieces.