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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Dec 4, 2022 23:08:13 GMT -5
I’m not at all into a big trade for a decent catcher. His offense would barely be mediocre at 1B. So why not go D at catcher, bigger stick at 1B? Murphy won a gold glove in 2021. So his D can't be that bad.
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Post by manfred on Dec 4, 2022 23:12:08 GMT -5
I’m not at all into a big trade for a decent catcher. His offense would barely be mediocre at 1B. So why not go D at catcher, bigger stick at 1B? Murphy won a gold glove in 2021. So his D can't be that bad. Right, his glove is great. But his stick is good… for a catcher. That is a real bonus if you are strong elsewhere. But his stick is barely average for a 1B, so I’d rather play Wong and have an above average 1B or RF. Don’t use big prospects for a catcher. There are no positions when you are on offense.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 4, 2022 23:15:04 GMT -5
Something to note about Murphy is that he has a positive impact on your pitching staff too. You’re not just getting somebody that is a high end bat for the position, you’re improving your pitching without actually acquiring pitching
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 4, 2022 23:27:14 GMT -5
Murphy won a gold glove in 2021. So his D can't be that bad. Right, his glove is great. But his stick is good… for a catcher. That is a real bonus if you are strong elsewhere. But his stick is barely average for a 1B, so I’d rather play Wong and have an above average 1B or RF. Don’t use big prospects for a catcher. There are no positions when you are on offense. Because it's easier to find a good hitting 1B than it is to find a good hitting catcher. Replacement level is just way higher at 1B, so it's much, much harder to stand out. Murphy was worth 5 WAR last year with a 122 wRC+. The only 1B to be worth more than him were Freeman and Goldschmidt, two of the top 5 hitters in baseball and MVP caliber players. The only thing with Murphy that makes me a little hesitant is that so much of his value comes from framing, and with all the talk of an automatic strike zone coming, I wonder if that would cut into his value. A good time to trade him imo if I'm the A's.
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Post by manfred on Dec 4, 2022 23:39:42 GMT -5
Right, his glove is great. But his stick is good… for a catcher. That is a real bonus if you are strong elsewhere. But his stick is barely average for a 1B, so I’d rather play Wong and have an above average 1B or RF. Don’t use big prospects for a catcher. There are no positions when you are on offense. Because it's easier to find a good hitting 1B than it is to find a good hitting catcher. Replacement level is just way higher at 1B, so it's much, much harder to stand out. Murphy was worth 5 WAR last year with a 122 wRC+. The only 1B to be worth more than him were Freeman and Goldschmidt, two of the top 5 hitters in baseball and MVP caliber players. The only thing with Murphy that makes me a little hesitant is that so much of his value comes from framing, and with all the talk of an automatic strike zone coming, I wonder if that would cut into his value. A good time to trade him imo if I'm the A's. He was 3.5 bWAR. So his offensive numbers are measured against other catchers. Meh. If the Sox are putting a prospect package together, I’d rather get Reynolds. Well, I’d prefer even better, but of the two, Reynolds.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 4, 2022 23:45:46 GMT -5
Because it's easier to find a good hitting 1B than it is to find a good hitting catcher. Replacement level is just way higher at 1B, so it's much, much harder to stand out. Murphy was worth 5 WAR last year with a 122 wRC+. The only 1B to be worth more than him were Freeman and Goldschmidt, two of the top 5 hitters in baseball and MVP caliber players. The only thing with Murphy that makes me a little hesitant is that so much of his value comes from framing, and with all the talk of an automatic strike zone coming, I wonder if that would cut into his value. A good time to trade him imo if I'm the A's. He was 3.5 bWAR. So his offensive numbers are measured against other catchers. Meh. If the Sox are putting a prospect package together, I’d rather get Reynolds. Well, I’d prefer even better, but of the two, Reynolds. I think people are discounting the fact that Murphy's stats could jump way up. Oakland has the most foul ball territory. Fenway has the least. (More opportunities in at bats with foul balls reaching the stands). baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/sean-murphy-669221?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlbHis batted ball profile is a pull homerun hitter, who got probably robbed a lot in LF Oakland. I'd expect his average to go up by 20 points in Fenway.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 5, 2022 0:10:50 GMT -5
Casas looks like a starter and has a ton of control. I think he’s worth a lot more than people think at this point. I also don’t think bell be traded under any circumstance really.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 5, 2022 0:11:08 GMT -5
Because it's easier to find a good hitting 1B than it is to find a good hitting catcher. Replacement level is just way higher at 1B, so it's much, much harder to stand out. Murphy was worth 5 WAR last year with a 122 wRC+. The only 1B to be worth more than him were Freeman and Goldschmidt, two of the top 5 hitters in baseball and MVP caliber players. The only thing with Murphy that makes me a little hesitant is that so much of his value comes from framing, and with all the talk of an automatic strike zone coming, I wonder if that would cut into his value. A good time to trade him imo if I'm the A's. He was 3.5 bWAR. So his offensive numbers are measured against other catchers. Meh. If the Sox are putting a prospect package together, I’d rather get Reynolds. Well, I’d prefer even better, but of the two, Reynolds. Agree about preferring Reynolds. Roster construction-wise, Reynolds also seems like a way better fit. We already have two catchers who seem like a good platoon tandem. Picking up Murphy would likely push us to trade one (perhaps back to Oakland) and use the other as a pure backup. I am a believer in the McGuire/Wong tandem, especially for the price. They both seem solid defensively, which is all you really need at catcher, so even if the bats disappoint we're still in decent shape. I love the idea of giving them a chance, seeing what we have in Wong, and investing elsewhere in the roster. Meanwhile Reynolds fills a gaping hole, and if Casas is the headlining piece that leaves it would also mean we no longer have two startable LHH first basemen.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 5, 2022 0:20:01 GMT -5
Casas looks like a starter and has a ton of control. I think he’s worth a lot more than people think at this point. I also don’t think bell be traded under any circumstance really. Do you see Hosmer being traded, then, even despite his no trade? Because I don't know how this roster is going to work otherwise. Hosmer doesn't really hit enough to be a full-time DH - at that point I would rather just rotate guys and keep them fresh - but I would be happy with him at 1B if we invest big elsewhere. Casas should obviously get the lions share of ABs if he's going to be in the majors, so that leaves Hosmer without a home. He does have value on a league minimum salary, though, so it doesn't make a ton of sense to DFA him. Obviously it's crazy to suggest trading Casas because of Hosmer, but if Casas can bring back equivalent value in a bigger area of need, Hosmer being under contract means that this move would improve the efficiency of the roster. I see it sort of like signing Story as "Xander insurance" (his arm strength now nonwithstanding); having him doesn't mean you should just let Xander walk, but it also makes you a lot more open to that outcome. Like, imagine if the alternatives to Casas were Dalbec and Cordero again... Absolutely not lol
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Post by ponch73 on Dec 5, 2022 0:20:14 GMT -5
Sean Murphy could be like a top 25 player in MLB if he had Fenway as his home. Right handed power with elite defense. He's the complete package at catcher. His average probably goes way up here in Boston. Versus Reynolds, who's power might drop here. What's the substantiation for this assertion?
Murphy has a .699 OPS (.286/.318/.381) in a small sample size (22 PA) at Fenway. And he has a .750 OPS in the AL East parks (.235/.291/.459) in 110 PA. He has raked in Tropicana and Rogers Park, but has not in the Toilet or Camden Yards.
The Cardinals, Rays and Guardians should be the top bidders for Murphy since he has raked in NL parks, in Tropicana, and in Progressive Field. He has a .853 OPS (.261/.330/.523) in 97 PA in NL parks, a 1.173 OPS (.321/.387/.786) and a 1.026 OPS (.238/.407/.619) in small samples (31 PA and 27 PA) in Tampa and Cleveland, respectively.
I would personally hold on to Casas and expect to be outbid.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 5, 2022 0:26:34 GMT -5
Sean Murphy could be like a top 25 player in MLB if he had Fenway as his home. Right handed power with elite defense. He's the complete package at catcher. His average probably goes way up here in Boston. Versus Reynolds, who's power might drop here. What's the substantiation for this assertion?
Murphy has a .699 OPS (.286/.318/.381) in a small sample size (22 PA) at Fenway. And he has a .750 OPS in the AL East parks (.235/.291/.459) in 110 PA.
The Cardinals and Guardians should be the top bidders for Murphy since he rakes in NL parks and in Progressive Field. He has a .853 OPS (.261/.330/.523) in 97 PA in NL parks and a 1.026 OPS (.238/.407/.619) in a small sampe (27 PA) in Cleveland.
I would personally hold on to Casas and expect to be outbid.
Are we going to put any weight into 22 and 110 at bats? That's 4 games worth of baseball and maybe 2-3 weeks worth of baseball.
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Post by ponch73 on Dec 5, 2022 0:30:04 GMT -5
What's the substantiation for this assertion?
Murphy has a .699 OPS (.286/.318/.381) in a small sample size (22 PA) at Fenway. And he has a .750 OPS in the AL East parks (.235/.291/.459) in 110 PA.
The Cardinals and Guardians should be the top bidders for Murphy since he rakes in NL parks and in Progressive Field. He has a .853 OPS (.261/.330/.523) in 97 PA in NL parks and a 1.026 OPS (.238/.407/.619) in a small sampe (27 PA) in Cleveland.
I would personally hold on to Casas and expect to be outbid.
Are we going to put any weight into 22 and 110 at bats? That's 4 games worth of baseball and maybe 2-3 weeks worth of baseball. Do you really think we should put any weight in your thesis that less foul ground relative to the Coliseum and left field pull hitter tendencies in Fenway will make him a top 25 MLB player (not just a top 25 hitter)? Seems like hyperbole.
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Post by xdmo on Dec 5, 2022 0:35:51 GMT -5
Are we going to put any weight into 22 and 110 at bats? That's 4 games worth of baseball and maybe 2-3 weeks worth of baseball. Yes, more weight than an unsubstantiated, off-the-cuff message board opinion. Did you have some other basis for making the claim that he'd be a top 25 MLB player in Fenway? He's already the top defensive catcher in baseball. See my post 7 posts up, about the batted ball data. The foul ball territory. The opportunity to get more chances in at bats. Fenway versus Oakland. He'll be a way hitter in Fenway full-time.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 5, 2022 0:43:52 GMT -5
Baseballsavant actually has Fenway being terrible for his power. He had 18 homers, 17.5 expected, but only 13 at Fenway; only Detroit had fewer, with 12. He must hit a lot of line drives of the "Monster taketh" variety.
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Post by ponch73 on Dec 5, 2022 0:49:01 GMT -5
Before we start shipping off cost-controlled, major league caliber players, consider the following:
PLAYER A: .304/.378/.446
PLAYER B: .197/.358/.408
Player A was just signed to a 3 year / $60M deal as a 35 year old FA (who is soon to be 36). Player B is Triston Casas at age 22 in the major leagues. He will cost $700K next season.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Dec 5, 2022 1:00:21 GMT -5
Casas looks like a starter and has a ton of control. I think he’s worth a lot more than people think at this point. I also don’t think bell be traded under any circumstance really. Do you see Hosmer being traded, then, even despite his no trade? Because I don't know how this roster is going to work otherwise. Hosmer doesn't really hit enough to be a full-time DH - at that point I would rather just rotate guys and keep them fresh - but I would be happy with him at 1B if we invest big elsewhere. Casas should obviously get the lions share of ABs if he's going to be in the majors, so that leaves Hosmer without a home. He does have value on a league minimum salary, though, so it doesn't make a ton of sense to DFA him. Obviously it's crazy to suggest trading Casas because of Hosmer, but if Casas can bring back equivalent value in a bigger area of need, Hosmer being under contract means that this move would improve the efficiency of the roster. I see it sort of like signing Story as "Xander insurance" (his arm strength now nonwithstanding); having him doesn't mean you should just let Xander walk, but it also makes you a lot more open to that outcome. Like, imagine if the alternatives to Casas were Dalbec and Cordero again... Absolutely not lol I think Hosmer costs nothing and means little to them, but that’s just my assumption. He might have a little value, but nothing that would move the needle.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 5, 2022 9:16:06 GMT -5
Before we start shipping off cost-controlled, major league caliber players, consider the following:
PLAYER A: .304/.378/.446
PLAYER B: .197/.358/.408
Player A was just signed to a 3 year / $60M deal as a 35 year old FA (who is soon to be 36). Player B is Triston Casas at age 22 in the major leagues. He will cost $700K next season.
PLAYER B: 95 PA. I'm high on Casas's bat, but a ~3 week sample is probably not very predictive, especially for a young guy the league hasn't had a chance to adjust to yet.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Dec 5, 2022 10:01:43 GMT -5
Said before but I just want Bloom to pick a lane. I believe he needs to pick one of the following:
- If he thinks all of our top prospects are too good to trade away, then commit to Casas and Devers being the cornerstone's of the team over then next 3 years, sign at least 1 of Judge/Correa/Turner. - If he doesn't think our top prospects are too good to trade, Bloom should use Casas or Mayer to get Murphy or Reynolds. Combine that with signing Nimmo or Bogaerts/Swanson. - If he both doesn't want to trade away our prospects, and also doesn't want to sign any big free agents, then just punt on the 2023 season. Trade Devers to get prospects around the same age as Casas/Rafaela/Bello/Mayer, so they all hit their prime at the same time.
Bloom needs to do one of those things. If he decides to do none of them we are stuck just waiting for Mayer and Bleis to be studs in 5 years and Devers walks in a year, without getting anything for him.
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Post by WayBackWasdin on Dec 5, 2022 12:15:35 GMT -5
Said before but I just want Bloom to pick a lane. I believe he needs to pick one of the following: - If he thinks all of our top prospects are too good to trade away, then commit to Casas and Devers being the cornerstone's of the team over then next 3 years, sign at least 1 of Judge/Correa/Turner. - If he doesn't think our top prospects are too good to trade, Bloom should use Casas or Mayer to get Murphy or Reynolds. Combine that with signing Nimmo or Bogaerts/Swanson. - If he both doesn't want to trade away our prospects, and also doesn't want to sign any big free agents, then just punt on the 2023 season. Trade Devers to get prospects around the same age as Casas/Rafaela/Bello/Mayer, so they all hit their prime at the same time. Bloom needs to do one of those things. If he decides to do none of them we are stuck just waiting for Mayer and Bleis to be studs in 5 years and Devers walks in a year, without getting anything for him. I agree with you on everything but trading Mayer for Murphy or Reynolds. Mayer has way too much upside to be a potential superstar. I would make the positional trade of Casas for either though.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 5, 2022 13:45:49 GMT -5
Baseballsavant actually has Fenway being terrible for his power. He had 18 homers, 17.5 expected, but only 13 at Fenway; only Detroit had fewer, with 12. He must hit a lot of line drives of the "Monster taketh" variety. But the year before they say he would have had three more HRs at Fenway (20 instead of 17), and 49 instead of 48 for his career. And of courses it's doubles, walks, average, and runs where Fenway is much better than Oakland, whose huge foul territory leads to a lot of foul outs.
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 5, 2022 17:55:01 GMT -5
As much as I would love him we need a RF and a SS so if rather not lose prospects for a C. I’d rather resign Christian if anything.
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Post by kwodes on Dec 5, 2022 18:50:35 GMT -5
If I'm remembering correctly, haven't the A's been more interested in quantity over quality in past prospect trades? I know it's not a rule, but maybe more of an organizational preference or tendency. I'm thinking of the Olson, Montas, Donaldson trades. Didn't those trades lean more towards quantity?
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Post by bosoxnation on Dec 5, 2022 19:37:54 GMT -5
Every time i think about this man i think about him sticking out his butt this year to take a pitch off the cheek and I can’t take him seriously 😂
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Post by dirtywaterinla on Dec 5, 2022 21:21:29 GMT -5
I don’t see how Sean Murphy and Bryan Reynolds are comparable players in value like some folks are saying here. Like who is out there and available that is even close to what Murphy pulls off playing a premium position??
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Post by manfred on Dec 5, 2022 21:27:50 GMT -5
I don’t see how Sean Murphy and Bryan Reynolds are comparable players in value like some folks are saying here. Like who is out there and available that is even close to what Murphy pulls off playing a premium position?? I don’t get the “premium position” thing. Which are the non-premium positions?
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