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Rest of the Offseason
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 20:00:45 GMT -5
What the heck are we looking at an offense as things currently stand?.. Hernandez-CF Yoshida-LF Story-2nd Devers-3rd RHH dh? Verdugo-RF Casas-1st Unknown SS McGuire-c That's not good if you ask me? Not even in the NL Central. Haha ya but am I missing anything or is that what you're seeing too? I'm struggling to see a team that can win 70 games.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 20:02:59 GMT -5
I’m a pessimist, but if Yoshida and Casas hit well, that lineup could score. Power is a question, but, again, on all cylinders, Story, Devers, and Casas could bang.
My concern is that there isn’t a lot of margin. An injury here, a slump there, and poof.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 20:05:10 GMT -5
Not even in the NL Central. Haha ya but am I missing anything or is that what you're seeing too? I'm struggling to see a team that can win 70 games. I would pencil a Hosmer & Refsnyder platoon into DH on the current depth chart, with Arroyo playing ideally 2B or SS depending on where they want Story.
I don't think you're missing anything though - at present Verdugo would be in RF, which sucks, there's a missing middle infielder, and there's no dedicated DH (which I at least like). There should be more moves.
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 9, 2022 20:07:12 GMT -5
They could allocate the majority of the rest of their budget towards pitching and plug the holes (except DH) with defense or whatever else they think is a market inefficiency and reset The Tax?
Definitely expecting another move or two of significance, though.
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Post by pasadenasox on Dec 9, 2022 20:09:26 GMT -5
Pitching, defense, and OBP/contact?
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 20:10:09 GMT -5
Haha ya but am I missing anything or is that what you're seeing too? I'm struggling to see a team that can win 70 games. I would pencil a Hosmer & Refsnyder platoon into DH on the current depth chart, with Arroyo playing ideally 2B or SS depending on where they want Story.
I don't think you're missing anything though - at present Verdugo would be in RF, which sucks, there's a missing middle infielder, and there's no dedicated DH (which I at least like). There should be more moves.
If we're saying the current roster that's correct but ugh that really makes it even more depressing. I'd say that roster might win 71 games. It's just a bad team.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2022 20:20:07 GMT -5
What the heck are we looking at an offense as things currently stand?.. Hernandez-CF Yoshida-LF Story-2nd Devers-3rd RHH dh? Verdugo-RF Casas-1st Unknown SS McGuire-c That's not good if you ask me? By ZiPS projected OPS+:
Hernandez - 99 Yoshida - 131
Story - 111 Devers - 135 RH DH (Refsnyder) - 106 Verdugo - 113 Casas - 113 Unknown SS (Arroyo) - 98 McGuire - 88
That lineup is average or above at every position but catcher. Yoshida essentially replaces Bogaerts' value, improvemets from Story, Kiké, and Verdugo essentially replace JDM's value, and Casas is a big step up from Dalbec/Franchy. As of today the offense is already improved from last season.
That's admittedly putting a lot of weight on Yoshida though.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 20:30:59 GMT -5
Let’s not forget that before they lost X, they were still in the market for at least one front-line arm. I would love to see them add a decent starter. I am not confident in Sale or Paxton holding up.
Right now they are down Eovaldi and X, up Yoshida (not counting bullpen for now). I guess we could add JDM to the losses, but I don’t see that as much loss by the end of last year.
The team as it stands is not especially good, but could pull a miracle. To be an actual contender, they need to fill the two losses — which makes Yoshida an actual step up from last year’s lineup.
I don’t think they can recoup the loss on X… so they need to add a really good arm.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 20:32:37 GMT -5
What the heck are we looking at an offense as things currently stand?.. Hernandez-CF Yoshida-LF Story-2nd Devers-3rd RHH dh? Verdugo-RF Casas-1st Unknown SS McGuire-c That's not good if you ask me? By ZiPS projected OPS+:
Hernandez - 99 Yoshida - 131
Story - 111 Devers - 135 RH DH (Refsnyder) - 106 Verdugo - 113 Casas - 113 Unknown SS (Arroyo) - 98 McGuire - 88
That lineup is average or above at every position but catcher. Yoshida essentially replaces Bogaerts' value, improvemets from Story, Kiké, and Verdugo essentially replace JDM's value, and Casas is a big step up from Dalbec/Franchy. As of today the offense is already improved from last season.
That's admittedly putting a lot of weight on Yoshida though.
Perhaps I stand corrected, glancing at that lineup it doesn't seem fear some but perhaps the depth of it could get it done. I don't really see it but I'd hope more will be added to it as we go.
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Post by dirtdog on Dec 9, 2022 20:37:08 GMT -5
Cohen wants Senga. Look for Mets to make a strong move there.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2022 20:40:10 GMT -5
They were at 82 wins before they did anything this offseason. Yoshida and the relievers are worth like maybe 5 wins. Other teams have added wins in free agency, but not very many on average (only 5 players with a 2+ war projection have been added to the other 14 AL teams). The Sox still have several more wins to add in free agency.
Their preseason O/U will not be anywhere near 71.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2022 20:42:24 GMT -5
What the heck are we looking at an offense as things currently stand?.. Hernandez-CF Yoshida-LF Story-2nd Devers-3rd RHH dh? Verdugo-RF Casas-1st Unknown SS McGuire-c That's not good if you ask me? Would have to be Arroyo at second, Hosmer/Dalbec DH platoon, I think. But it won’t end up like that.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2022 20:45:56 GMT -5
Letâs not forget that before they lost X, they were still in the market for at least one front-line arm. I would love to see them add a decent starter. I am not confident in Sale or Paxton holding up. Right now they are down Eovaldi and X, up Yoshida (not counting bullpen for now). I guess we could add JDM to the losses, but I donât see that as much loss by the end of last year. The team as it stands is not especially good, but could pull a miracle. To be an actual contender, they need to fill the two losses â which makes Yoshida an actual step up from last yearâs lineup. I donât think they can recoup the loss on X⦠so they need to add a really good arm. I think that even if they don't add another player, the team *projects* to be better than the team that *actually played* in 2022. The bullpen is obviously in better shape. The lineup is basically comparable to what it was last year (Xander is a big loss, obviously, but Yoshida, Casas, and regression to the mean from Verdugo, Kiké, and Story make up for it). And as for the rotation, while they're down Eovaldi/Wacha/Hill, they're up Sale/Paxton/Whitlock and a full season from Bello.
They need a starter and a bat and have $40 million to spend. They're not in a bad spot.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 20:52:48 GMT -5
Letâs not forget that before they lost X, they were still in the market for at least one front-line arm. I would love to see them add a decent starter. I am not confident in Sale or Paxton holding up. Right now they are down Eovaldi and X, up Yoshida (not counting bullpen for now). I guess we could add JDM to the losses, but I donât see that as much loss by the end of last year. The team as it stands is not especially good, but could pull a miracle. To be an actual contender, they need to fill the two losses â which makes Yoshida an actual step up from last yearâs lineup. I donât think they can recoup the loss on X⦠so they need to add a really good arm. I think that even if they don't add another player, the team *projects* to be better than the team that *actually played* in 2022. The bullpen is obviously in better shape. The lineup is basically comparable to what it was last year (Xander is a big loss, obviously, but Yoshida, Casas, and regression to the mean from Verdugo, Kiké, and Story make up for it). And as for the rotation, while they're down Eovaldi/Wacha/Hill, they're up Sale/Paxton/Whitlock and a full season from Bello.
They need a starter and a bat and have $40 million to spend. They're not in a bad spot. Jeez I really wish I had some of your optimism. If I squint hard enough and hope for just decent Injury luck I can see a fun scrappy red sox team who could make a playoff run. That being said they need a mid rotation starter or better to have a shot this season.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 20:54:57 GMT -5
Letâs not forget that before they lost X, they were still in the market for at least one front-line arm. I would love to see them add a decent starter. I am not confident in Sale or Paxton holding up. Right now they are down Eovaldi and X, up Yoshida (not counting bullpen for now). I guess we could add JDM to the losses, but I donât see that as much loss by the end of last year. The team as it stands is not especially good, but could pull a miracle. To be an actual contender, they need to fill the two losses â which makes Yoshida an actual step up from last yearâs lineup. I donât think they can recoup the loss on X⦠so they need to add a really good arm. I think that even if they don't add another player, the team *projects* to be better than the team that *actually played* in 2022. The bullpen is obviously in better shape. The lineup is basically comparable to what it was last year (Xander is a big loss, obviously, but Yoshida, Casas, and regression to the mean from Verdugo, Kiké, and Story make up for it). And as for the rotation, while they're down Eovaldi/Wacha/Hill, they're up Sale/Paxton/Whitlock and a full season from Bello.
They need a starter and a bat and have $40 million to spend. They're not in a bad spot. I can’t say that. Yoshida and Casas are complete unknowns, so I don’t accept projections, really. (Don’t forget how optimistic folks were about Bobby D to open last season!).I am not sure about the three reversion candidates… there are reasons to be concerned. Kiké’s career has had wide shifts. Verdugo was not much different two years ago from last year… that is probably what he is. Anyway… I think they can perform above last year, but I’d take last year’s opening day lineup over this one.
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Post by pokeyreesespieces12 on Dec 9, 2022 20:58:39 GMT -5
I'm just as lukewarm as the next guy about Dansby, but what do we think about signing him (if he does fall at the low end of the SS market), and using Mayer as the headliner of a package to acquire Murphy? Could then potentially sign Turner as DH/Backup 3B. Lineup then looks like some combination of:
Yoshida, Murphy, Devers, Casas, Story, Swanson, Turner, Verdugo, Kiké
Bench: Hosmer, Arroyo, Refsnyder, McGuire
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2022 21:00:40 GMT -5
They were at 82 wins before they did anything this offseason. Yoshida and the relievers are worth like maybe 5 wins. Other teams have added wins in free agency, but not very many on average (only 5 players with a 2+ war projection have been added to the other 14 AL teams). The Sox still have several more wins to add in free agency. Their preseason O/U will not be anywhere near 71. Disagree with that opinion. They were at 78 wins for the season and with a pythagorean record of 78-84 and a terrible second half, one in which they didn't divest much talent, which showed that they were getting worse as the season progressed. So I certainly wouldn't say they're an 82 caliber win team before anything happened this offseason. And frankly I don't see where they're really any better. Gain Martin and Jansen and Rodriguez and lose Strahm, so overall win in the pen. The rotation is down Wacha and Eovaldi and I'm not ready to count on Sale or Paxton so I'd say it's a net loss at the moment and I don't know that there's much out there that's going to move the needle with the possible exception of Senga who is probably earmarked for the Mets because they don't have a spending limit. While I like Yoshida I certainly don't see the offense as being better with X gone. Yeah, Casas could develop, but DH hasn't been filled in. RF is still a mess and SS is a huge hole (or 2b if Story can't handle SS). Catching is questionable. The Red Sox don't really have any strong RH bats, like X was. Not that hitting .250 is a barometer, but Story and Kiké are .240 hitters with some pop. I mean there's no .300 hitter with pop from the right side. And they're overall lacking RH power beyond Story. Right now I see a sub .500 team that's probably going to finish in last place again. I'd say they're about a 75 win team at the moment. We'll see if Bloom can pull them closer to .500 with the rest of the offseason, but most of the best talent is already gone and of the ones remaining, it's doubtful the Sox are much involved. They might make a run at Swanson. I'm sure they'll try for Senga but nobody will outbid the Mets.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2022 21:11:38 GMT -5
C McWong - 2 WAR
IF Devers 4 WAR Story 3.5 WAR Casas 1.5 WAR Arroyo 1 WAR
OF Yoshida 3 WAR Kiké 2 WAR Verdugo 2 WAR Refsnyder 1 WAR
That's 20 WAR. Last year's position players were at 18.
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Post by ematz1423 on Dec 9, 2022 21:16:30 GMT -5
C McWong - 2 WAR IF Devers 4 WAR Story 3.5 WAR Casas 1.5 WAR Arroyo 1 WAR OF Yoshida 3 WAR Kiké 2 WAR Verdugo 2 WAR Refsnyder 1 WAR That's 20 WAR. Last year's position players were at 18. Ok that's a projection if everything goes correctly vs the 18 that the team had in actuality. I can guarantee everyone isn't staying healthy so 20 WAR projection isn't impressive.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 21:21:14 GMT -5
C McWong - 2 WAR IF Devers 4 WAR Story 3.5 WAR Casas 1.5 WAR Arroyo 1 WAR OF Yoshida 3 WAR Kiké 2 WAR Verdugo 2 WAR Refsnyder 1 WAR That's 20 WAR. Last year's position players were at 18. That is one way to look at it. I assume you are including the negative guys, like Bobby D. Of course another way to look at it is Xander, JDM, and 84 games of CVaz were worth 9+ bWAR. So they need to make that up to equal last year. Sone will come from under-performance, yes, but it will be hard overall.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 21:30:16 GMT -5
C McWong - 2 WAR IF Devers 4 WAR Story 3.5 WAR Casas 1.5 WAR Arroyo 1 WAR OF Yoshida 3 WAR Kiké 2 WAR Verdugo 2 WAR Refsnyder 1 WAR That's 20 WAR. Last year's position players were at 18. Ok that's a projection if everything goes correctly vs the 18 that the team had in actuality. I can guarantee everyone isn't staying healthy so 20 WAR projection isn't impressive. On the one hand, yeah, but on the other hand I would take the over on many of these projections. Devers has already had a ~7 fWAR season and he was worth ~5 fWAR last year, and that was with shifting allowed. Fangraphs' two listed projections for Casas are 2.0 and 2.2 fWAR. Kiké was worth 4 fWAR in 2021, and while he's 31 now, he had a down year battling injuries last year. Story's last two seasons without major injuries (2019-2020) were on about a 6 fWAR pace. If health isn't a factor for him I like his odds at 4+ this year. I don't expect Refsnyder to recreate 2022, but he was also worth 1.3 fWAR in 57 games last year. If he did actually figure something out with his swing and it's not a flash in the pan, he could do work this year.
There are definitely question marks too (How will Yoshida and Casas adjust to MLB? (As you mentioned) How lucky will we be with injuries?), but I do think there's a lot to be optimistic about...and all the more so, since I'm expecting reinforcements.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 9, 2022 21:31:53 GMT -5
What the heck are we looking at an offense as things currently stand?.. Hernandez-CF Yoshida-LF Story-2nd Devers-3rd RHH dh? Verdugo-RF Casas-1st Unknown SS McGuire-c That's not good if you ask me? Yer gods!
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 9, 2022 22:01:57 GMT -5
I know it's not popular, but I'll try to be optimistic.
Bullpen (w/Steamer projected FIP): Kenley Jansen (R) - 3.86 Chris Martin (R) - 3.21 John Schreiber (R) - 3.55 Joely Rodriguez (L) - 3.73 Matt Barnes (R) - 3.93 Tanner Houck (R) - 3.35 Ryan Brasier (R) - 3.81 Zack Kelly (R) - 3.99
Average bullpen FIP last year was 3.86, so that looks like a pretty good bullpen. With their depth, it's hard to imagine this being anything but one of the better bullpens in baseball.
Starters (w/Steamer projected FIP): Chris Sale (L) - 3.24 Brayan Bello (R) - 3.62 Garrett Whitlock (R) - 3.81 James Paxton (L) - 4.1 Nick Pivetta (R) - 4.44
The average starter FIP last year was 4.04, so if given good health, that looks like an above average rotation. In reality, we probably shouldn't count on a lot from Paxton and Sale/Bello/Whitlock may all have their innings tempered to avoid overuse, but we're all expecting another starter to be signed and that would alleviate many of those concerns. And again we're looking at a great deal of depth behind the rotation, so the team is well suited to cover injuries.
The team looks to be lined up for an above average pitching staff. Not world-beaters, but much better than last year's staff which had a 4.19 Starters FIP (19th) and 4.13 Bullpen FIP (22nd).
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 22:05:02 GMT -5
C McWong - 2 WAR IF Devers 4 WAR Story 3.5 WAR Casas 1.5 WAR Arroyo 1 WAR OF Yoshida 3 WAR Kiké 2 WAR Verdugo 2 WAR Refsnyder 1 WAR That's 20 WAR. Last year's position players were at 18. That is one way to look at it. I assume you are including the negative guys, like Bobby D. Of course another way to look at it is Xander, JDM, and 84 games of CVaz were worth 9+ bWAR. So they need to make that up to equal last year. Sone will come from under-performance, yes, but it will be hard overall. McWong is projected for ~1 fWAR more than Plawazquez was worth last year. JDM was not good last year; 1 fWAR from the DH spot should be doable with a simple Hosmer/Refsnyder platoon. JDM had a 119 wRC+, which is higher than the platoon will likely do by a bit, but JDM also is a nightmare on the basepaths and a GIDP machine, even compared to Hosmer.
Bogie's ~6 fWAR (minus 1 fWAR from Plawazquez) is definitely going to be the hardest to replace, but I agree with incandenza that Yoshida, Casas, and positive regression has a good shot of covering it. And there will likely be more additions.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 22:07:46 GMT -5
That is one way to look at it. I assume you are including the negative guys, like Bobby D. Of course another way to look at it is Xander, JDM, and 84 games of CVaz were worth 9+ bWAR. So they need to make that up to equal last year. Sone will come from under-performance, yes, but it will be hard overall. McWong is projected for ~1 fWAR more than Plawazquez was worth last year. JDM was not good last year; 1 fWAR from the DH spot should be doable with a simple Hosmer/Refsnyder platoon. JDM had a 119 wRC+, which is higher than the platoon will likely do by a bit, but JDM also is a nightmare on the basepaths and a GIDP machine, even compared to Hosmer.
Bogie's ~6 fWAR (minus 1 fWAR from Plawazquez) is definitely going to be the hardest to replace, but I agree with incandenza that Yoshida, Casas, and positive regression has a good shot of covering it. And there will likely be more additions.
That remains a near-best case scenario to be… maybe the same as a last place team. No one thinks this is it, so it is moot. But it is madness to think this team is better for the off season (consider most of the guys being cited were already here. The off season is X, JDM out, Yoshida in. That is a beating).
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