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Rest of the Offseason
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2022 22:16:31 GMT -5
What the heck are we looking at an offense as things currently stand?.. Hernandez-CF Yoshida-LF Story-2nd Devers-3rd RHH dh? Verdugo-RF Casas-1st Unknown SS McGuire-c That's not good if you ask me? By ZiPS projected OPS+:
Hernandez - 99 Yoshida - 131
Story - 111 Devers - 135 RH DH (Refsnyder) - 106 Verdugo - 113 Casas - 113 Unknown SS (Arroyo) - 98 McGuire - 88
That lineup is average or above at every position but catcher. Yoshida essentially replaces Bogaerts' value, improvemets from Story, Kiké, and Verdugo essentially replace JDM's value, and Casas is a big step up from Dalbec/Franchy. As of today the offense is already improved from last season.
That's admittedly putting a lot of weight on Yoshida though.
It’s crazy to think how many at bats last year were sucked up by Dalbec/Duran/JBJ/Plawecki - those projections would suggest a lot less suck throughout the lineup. A Wong/Hosmer/Arroyo/Refsnyder bench seems a heck of lot better than the Plawlecki/Arroyo (as an OF)/Travis Shaw one they had to start 2021.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Dec 9, 2022 22:19:38 GMT -5
It’s not like Bogaerts was driving in runs last year, him and JD were actually kinda piss poor at it (as I insufferably cited multiple times through the mid to late part of last year). It’s very possible Yoshida could come in and have a bigger offensive impact. A lot of Bogey’s value last year came in the field and on the bags (despite the good slash line). He’s a fantastic baserunner imo and we will miss that Like honestly this many times do you remember going “XANDER WTF? ” over the course of his career? Vazquez made me do it more in one week
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 22:23:55 GMT -5
So: rookie 1b. OF new to the continent. C’s with little experience. No 2b. And people are making confident projections?
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 9, 2022 22:32:41 GMT -5
I have no idea but maybe they internally feel Mayer is the real deal and we’re talking helium next season.
More people are pissed that it got this far. I mean it wasn’t close they offered more money but short on term. Like I said he was there Bergeron.
I really want them to solve the Devers situation. Last season sucked with all that talk . We gonna here the same crap with Devers? Then make a blockbuster deal with him. I bet you , you could get half the ball clubs to bid on him.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2022 22:35:27 GMT -5
SP Sale 2.5 WAR Whitlock 2 WAR Bello 2 WAR Pivetta 1.5 WAR Paxton 1 WAR
RP Schreiber 1.5 WAR Jensen 1 WAR Houck 1 WAR Martin 1 WAR Joely .5 WAR Barnes .5 WAR
That's 14.5 WAR. Last year's pitchers were at 10.
$40 million left to spend.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2022 22:40:37 GMT -5
So: rookie 1b. OF new to the continent. C’s with little experience. No 2b. And people are making confident projections? Those projections are gospel, of course. How can you dare to question it?
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 22:46:06 GMT -5
McWong is projected for ~1 fWAR more than Plawazquez was worth last year. JDM was not good last year; 1 fWAR from the DH spot should be doable with a simple Hosmer/Refsnyder platoon. JDM had a 119 wRC+, which is higher than the platoon will likely do by a bit, but JDM also is a nightmare on the basepaths and a GIDP machine, even compared to Hosmer.
Bogie's ~6 fWAR (minus 1 fWAR from Plawazquez) is definitely going to be the hardest to replace, but I agree with incandenza that Yoshida, Casas, and positive regression has a good shot of covering it. And there will likely be more additions.
That remains a near-best case scenario to be⦠maybe the same as a last place team. No one thinks this is it, so it is moot. But it is madness to think this team is better for the off season (consider most of the guys being cited were already here. The off season is X, JDM out, Yoshida in. That is a beating). Yoshida and (effectively) Casas and Hosmer were not here. This team was starting JBJ in RF and Dalbec/Cordero at 1B for much of last year. Duran got 223 PA while playing a visually offensive CF while Kiké was sidelined. Verdugo had a down year with lots of bad luck. Story and Hernandez had injuries and only played 90-something games each due to major injuries. Plawecki was terrible and played 64 games at well below replacement level. Reaching first base against him was an automatic double.
And then there's the pitching. The Sox were running out arms like Hansel Robles and Austin Davis on the regular in 2022. Ryan Brasier (1st), Austin Davis (3rd), and Hirokazu Sawamura (5th) were three of the top five leaders in appearances. Barnes was still out of sorts or injured for most of the year before finding it down the stretch. Speaking of injuries, nearly every starter had a major injury last year, including five guys simultaneously at one point. Whitlock had a hip injury that he battled for a lot of the year. Josh Winckowski, Kutter Crawford, and Connor Seabold started 31 games. Sale had three freak injuries and pitched a grand total of 5.2 innings, including being one of three key guys (Strahm, Story) to miss time after getting hit in the hand with a baseball in the span of a calendar week. It was an unmitigated bloodbath... Pivetta was the only starter and Schreiber was the only decent reliever who stayed healthy all year.
This year's rotation could still use another solid starter, but it is in so much better shape. Sale, Paxton, and Whitlock are all on track to come into the year healthy, and Bello is on track to start the year with the Sox this time. The depth at AAA is even better than last year too. Almost the entire Worcester rotation is quality SP depth, including Murphy, Mata, and Walter, none of whom were advanced enough to be options last season. Jansen, Martin, and Rodriguez have the bullpen looking solid with similarly good depth behind them.
Edit: And imagine how good signing a decent SP, SS, etc. will feel to add to this roster. Who knows which direction Bloom will go, but that cash does need to get spent somewhere.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 9, 2022 23:08:09 GMT -5
So: rookie 1b. OF new to the continent. C’s with little experience. No 2b. And people are making confident projections? Those projections are gospel, of course. How can you dare to question it? Questioning it is fine, but providing justification for that is a good idea. Otherwise it just comes across as tiresome and pointless doomerism. The projections take into account variables like being new to the majors, hence why there's a 79 point spread in OPS+ between Yoshida's projected 5th percentile and 95th percentile seasons.
Another example - why are we worried about catcher experience? McGuire has appeared in 230 G over five seasons and has posted 3.9 fWAR. He's also the strong side (and therefore most relevant side) of the likely platoon and in his prime at 28. Are you expecting him to all of a sudden underperform his career rates? Why? Wong is actually new, but has been solid with his glove in his major league action and pitchers enjoy throwing to him. He was also donging constantly in AAA during the second half of last season, so there's at least some reason for optimism that his bat won't be a black hole...
---
Look, I get healthy skepticism. That's totally valid. I don't really get throwing out efforts at quantifying the likely success of the 2023 team because we're frustrated about X leaving and feeling pessimistic. I enjoy all of this banter, but I enjoy it most when people are sharing creative insights about the team and least when threads are full of repetitive doom and gloom.
Let's imagine the team is putrid in 2023. 55 wins. The doomers would have been right! Isn't it still more fun right now to see the possibilities in our young guys, get excited for our new signees, hope for shiny new FAs to round out our roster, etc.? Idk I just think a positive perspective goes a long way.
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 23:26:07 GMT -5
SP Sale 2.5 WAR Whitlock 2 WAR Bello 2 WAR Pivetta 1.5 WAR Paxton 1 WAR RP Schreiber 1.5 WAR Jensen 1 WAR Houck 1 WAR Martin 1 WAR Joely .5 WAR Barnes .5 WAR That's 14.5 WAR. Last year's pitchers were at 10. $40 million left to spend. This is apples and oranges. Why not compare projections? Sale was projected last year to be 2.1. Paxton was projected to be 1.4. Eovaldi 3.2 etc. So you are comparing an ideal to a reality… using a projection system that was pretty off with some of these guys last year. Just those three guys undershot by over 5 WAR.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 9, 2022 23:35:36 GMT -5
The projection system I'm using are guesses from my inside head. Feel free to argue that I'm wrong about one. I agree that some players will likely underperform. Some players will likely overperform, too.
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Post by scottysmalls on Dec 9, 2022 23:39:20 GMT -5
SP Sale 2.5 WAR Whitlock 2 WAR Bello 2 WAR Pivetta 1.5 WAR Paxton 1 WAR RP Schreiber 1.5 WAR Jensen 1 WAR Houck 1 WAR Martin 1 WAR Joely .5 WAR Barnes .5 WAR That's 14.5 WAR. Last year's pitchers were at 10. $40 million left to spend. This is apples and oranges. Why not compare projections? Sale was projected last year to be 2.1. Paxton was projected to be 1.4. Eovaldi 3.2 etc. So you are comparing an ideal to a reality… using a projection system that was pretty off with some of these guys last year. Just those three guys undershot by over 5 WAR. You compare to the reality because that’s how you estimate the improvement over what actually happened
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Post by keninten on Dec 9, 2022 23:40:35 GMT -5
I know it's not popular, but I'll try to be optimistic. Bullpen (w/Steamer projected FIP): Kenley Jansen (R) - 3.86 Chris Martin (R) - 3.21 John Schreiber (R) - 3.55 Joely Rodriguez (L) - 3.73 Matt Barnes (R) - 3.93 Tanner Houck (R) - 3.35 Ryan Brasier (R) - 3.81 Zack Kelly (R) - 3.99 Average bullpen FIP last year was 3.86, so that looks like a pretty good bullpen. With their depth, it's hard to imagine this being anything but one of the better bullpens in baseball. Starters (w/Steamer projected FIP): Chris Sale (L) - 3.24 Brayan Bello (R) - 3.62 Garrett Whitlock (R) - 3.81 James Paxton (L) - 4.1 Nick Pivetta (R) - 4.44 The average starter FIP last year was 4.04, so if given good health, that looks like an above average rotation. In reality, we probably shouldn't count on a lot from Paxton and Sale/Bello/Whitlock may all have their innings tempered to avoid overuse, but we're all expecting another starter to be signed and that would alleviate many of those concerns. And again we're looking at a great deal of depth behind the rotation, so the team is well suited to cover injuries. The team looks to be lined up for an above average pitching staff. Not world-beaters, but much better than last year's staff which had a 4.19 Starters FIP (19th) and 4.13 Bullpen FIP (22nd). I`m alot happier with this year`s pitching staff than last years. Some of the young guys last year did better than I expected. Really excited about watching Bello and Whitlock getting a shot at starting. Hoping the Sox give Walter a shot in the bullpen this year. Watching Sale try to come back. Just to be able to watch a decent bullpen has me hoping. Last year sucked but I have more hope in this pitching staff than last years. Now the lineup, not so much.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 9, 2022 23:41:29 GMT -5
So: rookie 1b. OF new to the continent. C’s with little experience. No 2b. And people are making confident projections? I mean… confident isn’t the word I would use 😁 There’s some upside with a lot of the guys on the roster. Go to the pitching side and you can talk yourself into Sale being Sale again, Bello being a stud right away, Whitlock taking to the rotation… but there’s not a lot of sure things here aside from like Raffy hitting laser beams. Getting more guys you can be certain about is what I would want to finish off the off-season, so not we’re banking on nice projections (however reasonable they may be)
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Post by manfred on Dec 9, 2022 23:43:17 GMT -5
The projection system I'm using are guesses from my inside head. Feel free to argue that I'm wrong about one. I agree that some players will likely underperform. Some players will likely overperform, too. But I don’t follow the numbers. Last season’s WAR: Wacha 3.3 Schrieber 2.7 Pivetta 2.6 Whitlock 1.8 Houck 1.6 Eovaldi 1.5 Hill 0.9 That is 14.4 with the main rotation and just one reliever.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 9, 2022 23:47:55 GMT -5
Those projections are gospel, of course. How can you dare to question it? Questioning it is fine, but providing justification for that is a good idea. Otherwise it just comes across as tiresome and pointless doomerism. The projections take into account variables like being new to the majors, hence why there's a 79 point spread in OPS+ between Yoshida's projected 5th percentile and 95th percentile seasons.
Another example - why are we worried about catcher experience? McGuire has appeared in 230 G over five seasons and has posted 3.9 fWAR. He's also the strong side (and therefore most relevant side) of the likely platoon and in his prime at 28. Are you expecting him to all of a sudden underperform his career rates? Why? Wong is actually new, but has been solid with his glove in his major league action and pitchers enjoy throwing to him. He was also donging constantly in AAA during the second half of last season, so there's at least some reason for optimism that his bat won't be a black hole... ---
Look, I get healthy skepticism. That's totally valid. I don't really get throwing out efforts at quantifying the likely success of the 2023 team because we're frustrated about X leaving and feeling pessimistic. I enjoy all of this banter, but I enjoy it most when people are sharing creative insights about the team and least when threads are full of repetitive doom and gloom. Let's imagine the team is putrid in 2023. 55 wins. The doomers would have been right! Isn't it still more fun right now to see the possibilities in our young guys, get excited for our new signees, hope for shiny new FAs to round out our roster, etc.? Idk I just think a positive perspective goes a long way.
I'd really appreciate it if you keep your lecturing to yourself. Pollyannaish homerism is quite grating to my nerves. If I see something that I see that's good I'm going to say so. If I think something isnt too good I'm going to say so. I'm not going to let homerism influence my feelings about things. If I like something, like say the Yoshida signing or the future of Tristan Casas if he's healthy or the improved drafting the Sox have done recently I'm going to say so. If I think the Sox are bungling the Xander situation or are making poor decisions like not punting at the deadline and getting under the tax limit or misreading the market I'm going to say so. I dont care for the default position that the Red Sox FO is smarter than everybody elses FO. I was certainly willing to give Bloom the benefit of the doubt but I certainly have become disillusioned over the past year. If that offends you I dont know what to tell you. You're now kvetching at me because I dont put a lot of stock in projections and regard it as gospel. I dont worship at the altar of WAR. Doesnt mean I'm in the statistical stone age. I've just been around long enough to remember when the stats guys were the outsiders and the old school dinosaurs were arrogantly freezing them out. Now I've seen the pendulum swing the other way with the arrogance coming from the stat mavens, which turns me off, because the arguments that come about from the absolutism of the stats that get parroted astound me. They're estimates, some better than others. Some just dont pass the eye test. There is no absolute right answer so I find myself pushing back hoping for an equilibrium between the stats and the observational scouting eye. Now if you dont like what I post then fine, ignore me. I'll do the same for you and we can spare the board a collective yawn. Or we can debate with civility, shake hands metaphorically and agree to disagree and move on. Your choice. I know the latter is my preference.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 9, 2022 23:49:38 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Dec 9, 2022 23:58:52 GMT -5
SP Sale 2.5 WAR Whitlock 2 WAR Bello 2 WAR Pivetta 1.5 WAR Paxton 1 WAR RP Schreiber 1.5 WAR Jensen 1 WAR Houck 1 WAR Martin 1 WAR Joely .5 WAR Barnes .5 WAR That's 14.5 WAR. Last year's pitchers were at 10. $40 million left to spend. This is apples and oranges. Why not compare projections? Sale was projected last year to be 2.1. Paxton was projected to be 1.4. Eovaldi 3.2 etc. So you are comparing an ideal to a reality⦠using a projection system that was pretty off with some of these guys last year. Just those three guys undershot by over 5 WAR. You blew right through this point from my earlier comment, so let me say it again: "I think that even if they don't add another player, the team *projects* to be better than the team that *actually played* in 2022. "
So let's be clear about what comparison we're making. There are two ways to do it:
-How does the current roster compare to the *opening day roster* from 2022? I'd say it's slightly worse off. Bogaerts, JDM, Eovaldi, and Wacha are considerable losses. On the plus side, though, they've thoroughly revamped the bullpen and added a significant (if uncertain) bat in Yoshida. Casas and Bello being ready to contribute for the full season are major additions. Paxton being ready from the start of the season is... something, at least. I think they might project to be a couple wins worse than the 2022 team projected for.
-How does the current roster compare to the *team that actually played* in 2022? Already considerably better. The losses are still there, but JDM and Eovaldi were only 1 WAR players last year. Anything at all they get from Sale and Paxton is more than they got last year. Casas looks like an even bigger upgrade when you measure him against the negative WAR they had at 1B last year. The bullpen looks WAY better than what it actually was in 2022. Kiké and Story are likely to be better than they were in 2022. All in all the roster *as of right now* looks better than the team that won 78 games last year.
If they made no further additions, I think they would have about an 83 win team right now. With another $40 million to spend they can probably get that up to 86-87.
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 0:05:54 GMT -5
This is apples and oranges. Why not compare projections? Sale was projected last year to be 2.1. Paxton was projected to be 1.4. Eovaldi 3.2 etc. So you are comparing an ideal to a reality⦠using a projection system that was pretty off with some of these guys last year. Just those three guys undershot by over 5 WAR. You blew right through this point from my earlier comment, so let me say it again: "I think that even if they don't add another player, the team *projects* to be better than the team that *actually played* in 2022. "
So let's be clear about what comparison we're making. There are two ways to do it:
-How does the current roster compare to the *opening day roster* from 2022? I'd say it's slightly worse off. Bogaerts, JDM, Eovaldi, and Wacha are considerable losses. On the plus side, though, they've thoroughly revamped the bullpen and added a significant (if uncertain) bat in Yoshida. Casas and Bello being ready to contribute for the full season are major additions. Paxton being ready from the start of the season is... something, at least. I think they might project to be a couple wins worse than the 2022 team projected for.
-How does the current roster compare to the *team that actually played* in 2022? Already considerably better. The losses are still there, but JDM and Eovaldi were only 1 WAR players last year. Anything at all they get from Sale and Paxton is more than they got last year. Casas looks like an even bigger upgrade when you measure him against the negative WAR they had at 1B last year. The bullpen looks WAY better than what it actually was in 2022. Kiké and Story are likely to be better than they were in 2022. All in all the roster *as of right now* looks better than the team that won 78 games last year.
If they made no further additions, I think they would have about an 83 win team right now. With another $40 million to spend they can probably get that up to 86-87.
Look at my later post. It still requires manipulating last year’s numbers vs. these projections.
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Post by grandsalami on Dec 10, 2022 0:07:18 GMT -5
Bloom said the Red Sox pretty much knew Bogaerts was going elsewhere all day Wednesday and even had that sense Tuesday. There was no feeling within the org that they had made any progress even though reports were publicly flying saying so.
Who was the one leaking to the press that the sox were close? Boras?
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Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 0:13:59 GMT -5
...
If they made no further additions, I think they would have about an 83 win team right now. With another $40 million to spend they can probably get that up to 86-87.
Look at my later post. It still requires manipulating last year’s numbers vs. these projections. Why, what's the manipulation? I don't get what you're saying.
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Post by notstarboard on Dec 10, 2022 0:15:19 GMT -5
Bloom said the Red Sox pretty much knew Bogaerts was going elsewhere all day Wednesday and even had that sense Tuesday. There was no feeling within the org that they had made any progress even though reports were publicly flying saying so. Who was the one leaking to the press that the sox were close? Boras? Wouldn't be surprised. He's the one with something to gain from it, after all.
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Post by julyanmorley on Dec 10, 2022 0:15:42 GMT -5
Noon: Heyman says there are "heavy discussions" 1pm: Morosi says he believes the Red Sox are going to find a deal to keep Bogaerts 2pm: Abraham says there is momentum 2pm: Sean McAdam: One Red Sox person, asked by someone today whether the Sox would re-sign Bogaerts, answered without hesitation: “Yes.” 3pm: Hector Gomez says talks have intensified, looks like they could come to an agreement.
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Post by manfred on Dec 10, 2022 0:18:17 GMT -5
Look at my later post. It still requires manipulating last year’s numbers vs. these projections. Why, what's the manipulation? I don't get what you're saying. If you select the top 8-10 pitchers, they far exceed the 10 WAR that this year’s staff supposedly beats. You might be able to lower last year’s staff by including *everyone* who pitched, so all the negatives. But if you don’t assume *any* bad pitchers this year, no Danishes or whatever, that is a huge advantage. No one shrinks the WAR total.
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Post by incandenza on Dec 10, 2022 0:19:54 GMT -5
Noon: Heyman says there are "heavy discussions" 1pm: Morosi says he believes the Red Sox are going to find a deal to keep Bogaerts 2pm: Abraham says there is momentum 2pm: Sean McAdam: One Red Sox person, asked by someone today whether the Sox would re-sign Bogaerts, answered without hesitation: “Yes.” 3pm: Hector Gomez says talks have intensified, looks like they could come to an agreement. We all really let ourselves get Lucy'd with this football. Why did we think the Red Sox would actually do something that was rumored?
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Post by soxfaninnj on Dec 10, 2022 0:25:28 GMT -5
Noon: Heyman says there are "heavy discussions" 1pm: Morosi says he believes the Red Sox are going to find a deal to keep Bogaerts 2pm: Abraham says there is momentum 2pm: Sean McAdam: One Red Sox person, asked by someone today whether the Sox would re-sign Bogaerts, answered without hesitation: “Yes.” 3pm: Hector Gomez says talks have intensified, looks like they could come to an agreement. We all really let ourselves get Lucy'd with this football. Why did we think the Red Sox would actually do something that was rumored? It’s ok I got played by some Twitter account italkstudio and Peppen who is a click bait Twitter account. I guess when we are hungry for news we tend to lower our standards
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