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2023 Red Sox Win Projection
nomar
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Post by nomar on Jan 3, 2023 18:21:05 GMT -5
Here is a venn diagram of the people who complained about Bogaerts all of last season and those who are now assuming the Sox will be horrible because he’s gone:
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Jan 3, 2023 18:53:26 GMT -5
That feels low, but Vegas only has them in the 19th-21st position depending on the site. I don't think my glasses are rose-colored when I say that I don't see them worse than that Mid-Tier cohort. Which still is a disaster of an offseason, no doubt, but I think the media is relishing the opportunity to make them a punching bag and pushing them too low (and the bettors are buying into the narrative). Elite: Astros, Mets, Yanks, Dodgers (6-1 to 8-1) Contenders: Padres, Braves, Phillies, Mariners, Blue Jays (10-1 to 16-1) Next: White Sox, Guardians, Cardinals, Rays (20-1 to 30-1) Mid-Tier: Angels, Brewers, Orioles, Giants, Rangers (40-1 to 50-1) Meh: Twins, Red Sox, Cubs (60-1 to 80-1) Bad: Marlins, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Royals (100-1 to 150-1) Awful: Rockies, Pirates, Reds, Athletics, Nationals (200-1 to 500-1) "Disaster of an offseason, no doubt"...how, exactly? In that we didn't outbid the sea of albatross contracts to make 2023-2027 better at the expense of 2028-2032? I think most of the additions have made sense so far. The only deal I don't like is Jansen's. Agree with incandenza that this team is probably being underrated due to the injuries last year. With average injury luck, this team should be better than last year's in all facets. Just need a starting middle IF addition à la Andrus. The outcomes for this roster are probably high variance given uncertainty around the young guys and the guys bouncing back from injury, but it's likely to be competitive. I love the emphasis on contact and eye in our new batters and the emphasis on control + general ceiling of our pitching staff. I also think the team's going to be really fun to watch in large part because of the new guys and the wide range of possible outcomes. And because the bullpen won't make me want to claw my eyes out.. i I really don't there is 1 team that is forecasting out to this timeframe, except as might be strictly naive forecasting. More to the point, of the teams with the capability to sign those contracts, they aren't even concerned, IMO. I think that has been borne out by the contracts that were handed out. It is kind of the go-to fallacy of the long term contract. There is so much that can happen before then teams should be giving only a cursory look at that timeframe. There really isn't any reason to dispute the Sox odds or the notion the Sox are gonna struggle. The top teams made aggressive moves to get better. That may not work out, but all things being equal, the Sox approach was more nuanced, and it will take of things to go right for them to be in the mix. Some things like the pen got better, but there are lot of questions in other areas. I am definitely not sold on the OF, C, SS or the starting pitching being even average let alone surplus. Fenway will help the team score runs, it is built for that, but it is hard to see them being an offensive juggerrnaut.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 3, 2023 19:05:12 GMT -5
That feels low, but Vegas only has them in the 19th-21st position depending on the site. I don't think my glasses are rose-colored when I say that I don't see them worse than that Mid-Tier cohort. Which still is a disaster of an offseason, no doubt, but I think the media is relishing the opportunity to make them a punching bag and pushing them too low (and the bettors are buying into the narrative). Elite: Astros, Mets, Yanks, Dodgers (6-1 to 8-1) Contenders: Padres, Braves, Phillies, Mariners, Blue Jays (10-1 to 16-1) Next: White Sox, Guardians, Cardinals, Rays (20-1 to 30-1) Mid-Tier: Angels, Brewers, Orioles, Giants, Rangers (40-1 to 50-1) Meh: Twins, Red Sox, Cubs (60-1 to 80-1) Bad: Marlins, Diamondbacks, Tigers, Royals (100-1 to 150-1) Awful: Rockies, Pirates, Reds, Athletics, Nationals (200-1 to 500-1) A huge number of people are incapable of recognizing that terrible injury luck played a role in the team's mediocre (not even awful, but mediocre) record in 2022. It's not like some wildly sophisticated analytical leap to reocgnize that, but still: beyond a lot of people. Are the Red Sox a middle of the pack team? Okay, you can make that case. Looking up at the Marlins? That's just stupid. This goes for the Rays too, by the way, who were also riddled with injuries last year. They're going to be a beast of a team in 2023, but a lot of folks haven't realized it yet.
You're going to make a ton of money on Draft Kings.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 3, 2023 19:09:05 GMT -5
Over/under is 74 for me. The lineup is ugly and full of question marks. Rotation is full of questions or health concerns. Rotation has depth and the bullpen is better, that’s my good for them. Definitely last in the east as a prediction, which will probably be the media consensus as well If Vegas set the over/under for the Sox season at 73.5, I'd tell my wife to handle school drop-offs for a couple of days because I have to go to Nevada to bet all our savings on the Sox over.I just don't see how they get that bad without actively tanking. Say whatever you want about this offseason, but the free agents they've signed have all been geared towards competing in 2023 - Jansen, Martin, Turner, Yoshida, Kluber... you don't sign those deals unless you think it can push you into playoff contention. Even if you say that last year's 78 wins was an accurate reflection of the team's true talent level and that losing Bogaerts drops them to ~74 wins, walk through the exercise Incandenza outlined above and tell me how they're losing almost 90 games without both a fire sale and cataclysmic injuries. This is a kick-ass version of that song, btw:
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Jan 3, 2023 19:24:54 GMT -5
Sox win 5 of 9 and 5 of 9 etc, end up 90-72 because I'd rather be an optimist and be disappointed than be a pessimist have all the optimists grinningly say I told you so (plus if the pessimists are right it's not like they'll be happy about it).
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2023 19:42:52 GMT -5
I'd day they range from about 90 wins down to 90 losses. Which means about a .500 team.
Yes, they'll catch a bit of a break only getting beat up by their eastern opponents less often, but then again there are still a bunch of better teams that should be able to handle the Red Sox.
I think pretty much everybody in the AL East is better, although you can debate Baltimore.
Cleveland is better. Chicago and Minnesota are in the same tier.
Houston and Seattle are better. Texas and LAA are probably in the same tier. So the Sox are clearly better than Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland.
And in interleague they're going to play the NL West I believe so that's the Padres and Dodgers who are clearly better and the DBacks and Giants are in the same tier. Colorado is inferior. And I think the Sox get stuck playing a better Braves team.
So I'll say the Sox are better than they were last year. I'll give them 79 wins although they could wind up with 84. Either way unless they take the 3rd wild card, I don't really see them as a playoff caliber team.
I do expect a bunch of injuries. Injury prone players have injuries. It happens. They lack power and speed in the lineup. The defense has its questions. I don't think the rotation is particularly strong.
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Post by 07redsox on Jan 3, 2023 21:16:21 GMT -5
I'd day they range from about 90 wins down to 90 losses. Which means about a .500 team. Yes, they'll catch a bit of a break only getting beat up by their eastern opponents less often, but then again there are still a bunch of better teams that should be able to handle the Red Sox. I think pretty much everybody in the AL East is better, although you can debate Baltimore. Cleveland is better. Chicago and Minnesota are in the same tier. Houston and Seattle are better. Texas and LAA are probably in the same tier. So the Sox are clearly better than Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland. And in interleague they're going to play the NL West I believe so that's the Padres and Dodgers who are clearly better and the DBacks and Giants are in the same tier. Colorado is inferior. And I think the Sox get stuck playing a better Braves team. So I'll say the Sox are better than they were last year. I'll give them 79 wins although they could wind up with 84. Either way unless they take the 3rd wild card, I don't really see them as a playoff caliber team. I do expect a bunch of injuries. Injury prone players have injuries. It happens. They lack power and speed in the lineup. The defense has its questions. I don't think the rotation is particularly strong. Interleague doesn’t work that way anymore. I believe the changes made to the schedule mean that every team now plays at least one series against every other team, so they play each NL team once while mostly lowering the total number of inter-division matchups. That means they also get to play teams like MIA, PIT, CIN etc. which helps with the schedule quite a bit.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2023 21:28:16 GMT -5
I'd day they range from about 90 wins down to 90 losses. Which means about a .500 team. Yes, they'll catch a bit of a break only getting beat up by their eastern opponents less often, but then again there are still a bunch of better teams that should be able to handle the Red Sox. I think pretty much everybody in the AL East is better, although you can debate Baltimore. Cleveland is better. Chicago and Minnesota are in the same tier. Houston and Seattle are better. Texas and LAA are probably in the same tier. So the Sox are clearly better than Detroit, Kansas City, and Oakland. And in interleague they're going to play the NL West I believe so that's the Padres and Dodgers who are clearly better and the DBacks and Giants are in the same tier. Colorado is inferior. And I think the Sox get stuck playing a better Braves team. So I'll say the Sox are better than they were last year. I'll give them 79 wins although they could wind up with 84. Either way unless they take the 3rd wild card, I don't really see them as a playoff caliber team. I do expect a bunch of injuries. Injury prone players have injuries. It happens. They lack power and speed in the lineup. The defense has its questions. I don't think the rotation is particularly strong. Interleague doesn’t work that way anymore. I believe the changes made to the schedule mean that every team now plays at least one series against every other team, so they play each NL team once while mostly lowering the total number of inter-division matchups. That means they also get to play teams like MIA, PIT, CIN etc. which helps with the schedule quite a bit. Ah, ok. I knew they were playing against Mookie and the Dodgers and X and the Padres so I thought it was their turn to play the NL West. I guess it makes more sense to balance the interleague nonsense - I really wish they'd do away with interleague. It ceased to be interesting a long time ago. I'm old school. The only time NL and AL should play each other is in the all-star game or the World Series.
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Post by seamus on Jan 3, 2023 22:01:06 GMT -5
As somebody who lives in an NL town (Milwaukee), I'm grateful for interleague play so I can see my Sox every once in a while. I still flip off the statue of Selig every time I go to the park, though, don't worry.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 3, 2023 22:05:32 GMT -5
As somebody who lives in an NL town (Milwaukee), I'm grateful for interleague play so I can see my Sox every once in a while. I still flip off the statue of Selig every time I go to the park, though, don't worry. Funny thing is that Milwaukee was an American League town from 1970 - 1997, but Selig had a soft spot for the Milwaukee Braves so he transferred the Brewers from the AL to the NL. When I think of the Brewers I think of 1982's Harvey's Wallbangers and they were totally an American League team. Hell, once upon a time, Boston was a National League city.
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TearsIn04
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 3, 2023 23:10:04 GMT -5
As a general rule, I'm not a big fan of BB fans or teams using injuries as an excuse. This isn't hoops where you lose your season if your best player goes down for the year. I assume the posters who are saying the Red Sox had bad injury luck last year are counting Sale's absence as unlucky. Yes, the liner off his digit was bad luck, but we have no idea how well he would have pitched. He hasn't made it to the finish line and pitched effectively since 2017.
I had them at 81 W's in 2022 but also said they could easily backslide and end up lower. That's about where I am with the 2023 team.
Other than being lousy, the two most disappointing things about 2022 were despite being one of six last-place teams, they're still drafting in the middle of the pack, and the decision to not significantly add to the farm at the deadline. If we're going to have a non-contending year in '23, I'd rather gain some future assets in the process.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 3, 2023 23:27:36 GMT -5
But you keep moving goalposts. Basically you are saying the off season is not a failure because they had already failed in a way that made it impossible to succeed. They blew Xander. So saying hey we can’t match the Padres is an afterthought. And for three years they’ve been clearing salary to build up a wad of cash. The refrain at the end of the season and early this off season was don’t judge until they spend the money. This plan has been *predicated* on rebuilding this off season. Getting outspent doesn’t change that. If that's true, then nobody can say they didn't take unusual steps to get him to sign. I am, of course, a juvenile. But I think we continue to overestimate the amount of money they had to spend. Given the holes they had to fill, the inadequate amount of help coming from the farm to fill those holes (though it's great to have Casas hitting in the middle of the order and Bello filling a rotation spot), and the explosion of the market, the ~$80M wasn't as much as people are making it out to be. I also think it's hard to spend that amount of money efficiently on mid- and lower-tier guys and though some may disagree with the decision, they were not going to give out massive, long-term deals this winter.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Jan 4, 2023 7:03:15 GMT -5
If Vegas set the over/under for the Sox season at 73.5, I'd tell my wife to handle school drop-offs for a couple of days because I have to go to Nevada to bet all our savings on the Sox over.I just don't see how they get that bad without actively tanking. Say whatever you want about this offseason, but the free agents they've signed have all been geared towards competing in 2023 - Jansen, Martin, Turner, Yoshida, Kluber... you don't sign those deals unless you think it can push you into playoff contention. Even if you say that last year's 78 wins was an accurate reflection of the team's true talent level and that losing Bogaerts drops them to ~74 wins, walk through the exercise Incandenza outlined above and tell me how they're losing almost 90 games without both a fire sale and cataclysmic injuries. This is a kick-ass version of that song, btw: 73.5 would be insane for a casino to set for the Sox. Everyone would take the over. Even if they only win 74, you're in the money. I'm down on this teams chances, but not that down where I wouldn't take the over. They still have Devers.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 4, 2023 10:56:28 GMT -5
Again, the bookies don't set the line, the bettors do. The majority are uninformed with guesswork driving the placement. The game has radically changed year over year with the loss of the shift at the top of the list. This is nothing but a roll of the dice. And Devers isn't their only asset people.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 4, 2023 11:29:39 GMT -5
Other than being lousy, the two most disappointing things about 2022 were despite being one of six last-place teams, they're still drafting in the middle of the pack, Doesn't this kind of highlight how the fact that the team came in last place wasn't actually indicative of their talent level or outcome last year (middle of the pack)? This is exactly why a team that should be better in 2023 shouldn't be projected as one of the worst teams in baseball, ADD: but is because the sentiment and perception are worse than reality.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 4, 2023 15:13:47 GMT -5
Again, the bookies don't set the line, the bettors do. The majority are uninformed with guesswork driving the placement. The game has radically changed year over year with the loss of the shift at the top of the list. This is nothing but a roll of the dice. And Devers isn't their only asset people. Also a fun Springsteen song with a great first 3-second opening hook.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Jan 4, 2023 18:38:05 GMT -5
I don't think enough people are talking about the schedule changes. Those benefit the Sox a ton. Last year they won ~34% of division games, that would be 18-34 this year, and 60% of non-division games, which would be 66-43. That's an extra 6 wins, give or take, just because of the schedule.
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Post by Smittyw on Jan 4, 2023 18:59:48 GMT -5
Again, the bookies don't set the line, the bettors do. The majority are uninformed with guesswork driving the placement. The game has radically changed year over year with the loss of the shift at the top of the list. This is nothing but a roll of the dice. And Devers isn't their only asset people. Also a fun Springsteen song with a great first 3-second opening hook. I think it's now beyond dispute that these Springsteen posts are good luck. Keep them coming all season and I predict 105 wins.
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Post by geostorm on Jan 5, 2023 7:45:36 GMT -5
Again, the bookies don't set the line, the bettors do. The majority are uninformed with guesswork driving the placement. The game has radically changed year over year with the loss of the shift at the top of the list. This is nothing but a roll of the dice. And Devers isn't their only asset people. Also a fun Springsteen song with a great first 3-second opening hook. "this" popped into my head > seeing the two earlier vids posted..."on theme"?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jan 7, 2023 6:25:14 GMT -5
I've just created a very cool breakdown by position of situation-adjusted fWAR for the 2022 position players. The challenge was to correctly divide Arroyo between starting 2B and bench, and Franchy between starting 1B, starting corner OF, and bench. (Vazquez and Duran had little slivers of bench assignment, and Dalbec a sliver at 3B, but none were large enough to show up in the totals.
What I want folks to do before I post this is to estimate the WAR we'll get at each at each of 11 positions. (The three bench positions other than C did not really sort out well in 2022, so I've lumped them together.) I think folks may be surprised at the difference between their total and last year's reality.
I don't need a whole lot of responses here, nor do you have to spend a lot of thought. I'm actually more interested in gut feelings!
You can copy this or even quote this answer and insert your guesses.
I've included the last four year for the current incumbents as a guide (with the SSS 2020 in parentheses). All are per 600 PA unless they exceeded that (indicated by *); catcher is per 400 PA and backup catcher per 200. Order is projected lineup.
_____ Yoshida ?
_____ Story 5.5*, (4.1), 3.3, 3.2
_____ Devers 6.0*, (5.0), 4.6*, 5.3*
_____ Turner 2.7, (8.6), 4.8*, 3.4
____ Casas 4.5
_____ Herandez 1.1, (0.2), 3.4, 2.1
_____ Verdugo 2.7, (4.9), 3.9, 3.5*
_____ SS ?
_____ McGuire [0.2 2019-20], 1.7, 2.3
_____ Wong 0.8 (per 200) PA
_____ Refsnyder, Arroyo, Duran, etc. (600 PA total)
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Post by lonborgski on Jan 7, 2023 9:06:10 GMT -5
I've just created a very cool breakdown by position of situation-adjusted fWAR for the 2022 position players. The challenge was to correctly divide Arroyo between starting 2B and bench, and Franchy between starting 1B, starting corner OF, and bench. (Vazquez and Duran had little slivers of bench assignment, and Dalbec a sliver at 3B, but none were large enough to show up in the totals.
What I want folks to do before I post this is to estimate the WAR we'll get at each at each of 11 positions. (The three bench positions other than C did not really sort out well in 2022, so I've lumped them together.) I think folks may be surprised at the difference between their total and last year's reality.
I don't need a whole lot of responses here, nor do you have to spend a lot of thought. I'm actually more interested in gut feelings!
You can copy this or even quote this answer and insert your guesses.
I've included the last four year for the current incumbents as a guide (with the SSS 2020 in parentheses). All are per 600 PA unless they exceeded that (indicated by *); catcher is per 400 PA and backup catcher per 200. Order is projected lineup.
____2.0_ Yoshida ?
___3.5__ Story 5.5*, (4.1), 3.3, 3.2
___5.5__ Devers 6.0*, (5.0), 4.6*, 5.3*
___3.0__ Turner 2.7, (8.6), 4.8*, 3.4
__4.0 Casas 4.5
____2.0_ Herandez 1.1, (0.2), 3.4, 2.1
___2.7__ Verdugo 2.7, (4.9), 3.9, 3.5*
__1.0___ SS ?
__1.5___ McGuire [0.2 2019-20], 1.7, 2.3
__0.9___ Wong 0.8 (per 200) PA
__1.0___ Refsnyder, Arroyo, Duran, etc. (600 PA total)
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 7, 2023 10:09:42 GMT -5
I've just created a very cool breakdown by position of situation-adjusted fWAR for the 2022 position players. The challenge was to correctly divide Arroyo between starting 2B and bench, and Franchy between starting 1B, starting corner OF, and bench. (Vazquez and Duran had little slivers of bench assignment, and Dalbec a sliver at 3B, but none were large enough to show up in the totals.
What I want folks to do before I post this is to estimate the WAR we'll get at each at each of 11 positions. (The three bench positions other than C did not really sort out well in 2022, so I've lumped them together.) I think folks may be surprised at the difference between their total and last year's reality.
I don't need a whole lot of responses here, nor do you have to spend a lot of thought. I'm actually more interested in gut feelings!
You can copy this or even quote this answer and insert your guesses.
I've included the last four year for the current incumbents as a guide (with the SSS 2020 in parentheses). All are per 600 PA unless they exceeded that (indicated by *); catcher is per 400 PA and backup catcher per 200. Order is projected lineup.
___2.8__ Yoshida ?
__3.8___ Story 5.5*, (4.1), 3.3, 3.2
__6___ Devers 6.0*, (5.0), 4.6*, 5.3*
__3.2___ Turner 2.7, (8.6), 4.8*, 3.4
__2.5__ Casas 4.5
__2.5___ Herandez 1.1, (0.2), 3.4, 2.1
__3.9___ Verdugo 2.7, (4.9), 3.9, 3.5*
__1.0___ SS ?
___2__ McGuire [0.2 2019-20], 1.7, 2.3
__1___ Wong 0.8 (per 200) PA
__1.5___ Refsnyder, Arroyo, Duran, etc. (600 PA total)
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 7, 2023 10:45:01 GMT -5
How many games does a "replacement level" team win in a 162 game season anyways? 65?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jan 7, 2023 11:41:43 GMT -5
How many games does a "replacement level" team win in a 162 game season anyways? 65? Replacement level is defined so that there is 1,000 WAR in the league every year. Average team has 1000/30 = 33.3 WAR and wins 81 games. So a team with 0 WAR has about 47.5 wins.
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jan 7, 2023 12:25:27 GMT -5
How many games does a "replacement level" team win in a 162 game season anyways? 65? Replacement level is defined so that there is 1,000 WAR in the league every year. Average team has 1000/30 = 33.3 WAR and wins 81 games. So a team with 0 WAR has about 47.5 wins. Not sure why WAR would always come out to 1000 in a league. Isnt that convenient? So a 47.5 win team is roughly a .300 team, a bit under?
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