2023 Red Sox Win Projection

Where did you get those odds? I'd take that bet. Vegas has the Red Sox at 85.5 wins.

Perhaps he had to give -300 to get that total?

Did you run projections like that for the other 14 teams in the league and if so how do the Sox compare?

Personally I think the Sox lack power and speed so I think they're going to be prone to not scoring as big a pct of their runners as ond would think.

I also think as presently constituted the team defense looks terrible and could seriously undermine the pitching.

I think they're probably a 70 something win team. I think they're probably the 5th best team in the division. I think 2 teams are better in the central, and 2 are better in the west and 3 others are comparable to the Sox. To me that's not a recipe for 80 something wins but stuff happens so maybe they'll surprise...or maybe they'll win 75 or less, which is just as possible.

So no you can't tell me what numbers I'm getting wrong?

I thought I made my point clear when I asked you if you ran your numbers against the other teams in the league.

What was their projected WAR, what about their roster changes, etc.

You're assuming that the other teams stood still and did nothing and have no changes.

So what does 19 WAR mean compared to other teams, etc? What's their WAR with the changes they've made? Did they have similar adjustments upward like you added on for the Sox?

Without that context I can't say if your projections look accurate.

I already told you think I think the lineup hasn't improved, the defense looks worse and the starting pitching is still highly questionable. I'm not going to make up WAR numbers though. Seems kind of pointless unless I'm going to do it for all the teams and then see how the Sox stack up in comparison.

I'm not spotting them Andrus. Until they get him I'm not treating it like they are. If they wind up with Iglesias what does that do for your SS defense.

I don't know if Verdugo is passable defensively in RF. I think he's passable in LF and a liability in RF. I dont know if Kiké is in CF, or at SS or 2b yet.

I can't say 2b is solid average defensively. Arroyo is, but who knows how many games he plays?

Offensively, 1b will be better, agreed. Yoshida should be a big upgrade over RF from last year.

But SS is a huge offensive downgrade and I anticipate 2b will be as well.

I also dont expect either catcher to hit next year. I'm not high on McGuire's offense as you are. So I don't expect it to he better. I think Turner at his age will be about what JDM was last year.

Like I said I think teams are more prone to leave runners on base when they lack the HR power to drive them in and lack speed and are more prone to station to station baseball. They do have Duran and Hamilton but neither can get on base enough for their speed to matter. So I'm not convinced that they'll do a better job of capitalizing on their offensive opprtunities.

The pitching will need Bello to blossom because if he doesnt this year then its hope for Sale to be what he was and provide innings. They're doing "the right thing" with Whitlock in my opinion, but it could backfire as he hasn't pitched a lot of innings in a long time and they will miss him out of the pen. He is a loss to the pen.

I think they'll miss the performances of Eovaldi and Wacha and I dont know if Kluber and Whitlock will be better than what they got last year.

I think they'll miss Strahm somewhat. Unless Taylor comes fully back theyre short a trusty late inning lefty.

I'm not critical of the Jansen move, but the rule change could mess with him, plus he isnt what he used to be, but at least the pen is better defined. Martin should help. I think the pen is better but only if Jansen is solid, they find a good late lefty, and adequately replace Whitlock, which Houck might do if he doesn't start.

I guess I just dont see a lot of net improvement.

Basically I think at their best the Sox are a 3rd wild card winning about 85 games.

They were horrendous against NYT, Tor, and TB. They won 78. I didnt say they were the 62 Mets. They were mediocre.

I think they're the 5th best AL team. I think 2 AL Central teams are probably better and probably 2 in the West. That would make them about 10th.

They might be better or they might be worse. I could see them winning 85 or with a bunch of injuries losing 90. I'd say the center, mid 70s is probably where they're at.

I didnt assume everything went wrong. What I pointed out was the wide ranges of variability there are with this team.

Yes, somebody will be the SS. The only guarantee is that whoever plays it will be a huge downgrade overall from what X has given the Sox. And while you're awarding good grades for defense at SS and 2b, please understand I dont even know who they're getting yet. I can't assume anything yet. Yes they'll get a warm body, and options are limited, but let's see first.

Hey, we both think highly of Bello and Casas and we're both intrigued by Yoshida.

I was similarly intrigued by Buchholz. We all knew Clay had what it took to be among the best in baseball. And he did become the best....for the 1st half of 2013 before injuries derailed him, but coming after the promise of 2007, did you think he'd struggle so bad in 2008?

Development and maturity isnt always linear and that staff had Beckett, Daisuke, Wakefield, and another promising youngster in Lester to fall back on. They didnt have to rely on Buchholz.
This staff is much thinner with more question marks.

Do you really want to pin your hopes to Sales resurrection as ace of the staff?

It could happen, but it's been 5 years, so I dont think that makes me a negative Nellie if I'm not ready to believe.

You talk a lot about projections as if they're universal and concrete. Everybody has their own internal projections and in the case of baseball all it takes is a nice gust of wind, and projections can easily get blown away.

I think because of the high volume of variability of the team the range on this team goes from playoff team to legit cellar dweller (as opposed to a team that finished 3 games off the record for best last place team evah!).

I think the center of that range where just as much goes right as it goes wrong is probably toward the mid to upper 70s in wins.

Ymmv on that, though.