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2023 Red Sox Win Projection
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Post by incandenza on Jan 13, 2023 12:20:20 GMT -5
Here's one thing that does give me pause. A slight mystery that I haven't seen addressed is that the Red Sox actually had a somewhat meh 102 wRC+ last year, and they had poor clutch hitting, yet somehow they finished 4th in the AL in runs scored - only 2 runs behind the Astros, a very good hitting team that plays in a sandbox. Was the offense somehow luckier/better than the stats would suggest (even the clutch stats that are supposed to capture such divergence)? If so then it will actually be harder to improve on last year's offensive performance. I don't think this counters the clutch stuff at all. They could have compiled those runs in blow outs and it would have no impact on the clutch stats. Another reason for the discrepancy is Fenway is one of the most run-friendly environments in baseball ( third after Coors and Great American), so wRC+ takes that into account while raw runs obviously doesn't. Right, but if they scored a bunch of runs in blowouts then that should be reflected in wRC+; either way there's a wRC+ and RS discrepancy.
Maybe it's as simple as Fenway being a run-friendly environment, though it surprises me if the effect is that large. For comparison, in 2021 they had a 106 wRC+ (5th in the AL) and 829 runs scored (4th in the AL) while also having the 5th best clutch rating in the AL.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 13, 2023 12:57:26 GMT -5
1. Do you remember the Celtics in the few years before they added KG and Ray Allen? Raffy Devers is your Paul Pierce. A lineup that depends on Alex Verdugo in the middle of the order and then tapers down to the catchers, the (likely) light-hitting SS, and a 2B who was supposed to be a bench guy is a creampuff lineup. I'd list KKH as a bottom-third guy, too, except that he may be hitting second with his lifetime .314 OBP and 97 OPS-plus. 2. I expect massive decline in SS production (not a rocket science observation, I'll grant you) and moderate decline at DH. JDM put up a 117 OPS-plus last year in his age 34-35 season. Justin Turner was at 116 last year and will be playing his age 38 season in '23. Yoshida is an intriguing offensive piece but it sounds like his defense could very well cannibalize whatever offensive WAR he produces, especially if he's in Fenway's RF. He's the 180 from JBJ in RF. 3. I'll say it again: It's silly to count on anything from Sale, who hasn't had a year of durability and good performance in six years. You comfortable counting on Paxton? Kluber is a decent bet for the money. But they lost 3 SPs - Eo, Hill and Wacha, each of whom was some degree of useful last year. 4. It's hard to rate the BP without knowing where Houck and Whitlock will be. If they're both in the rotation, we have three guys we can reasonably depend on: Jansen, Martin and Schreiber. That would have been a lot just a few years ago. It's not great depth in today's game. Why do people keep using OPS+? WRC+ is just as easy to look up and correctly balances OBP and SLG. Regardless, despite the age difference Turner has been as good if not a better hitter than JD the last 4 years, and unlike JD he got better as the year went on. That's not even considering clutchness, which take it whatever way you want, but that was something a lot of fans noticed about JD last year. I can't see that being a moderate downgrade at all. I could see an argument for it being even, but I would say it's more likely an upgrade. Fair question. I just tend to go to B-Ref by force of habit and, just like Seamus, I find it a bit easier to navigate. It's not that FG is difficult. It's just a case of familiarity for me. I guess it's like a guy who always drives a Ford or a Toyota or whatever. He knows the feel. Also, whenever I compare a given player's OPS-plus and wRC+, the difference is small. It's not exactly six of one, half a dozen of the other. But it's probably 6.001 of one, half of a dozen of the other.
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Post by scottysmalls on Jan 13, 2023 13:03:23 GMT -5
I don't think this counters the clutch stuff at all. They could have compiled those runs in blow outs and it would have no impact on the clutch stats. Another reason for the discrepancy is Fenway is one of the most run-friendly environments in baseball ( third after Coors and Great American), so wRC+ takes that into account while raw runs obviously doesn't. Right, but if they scored a bunch of runs in blowouts then that should be reflected in wRC+; either way there's a wRC+ and RS discrepancy.
Maybe it's as simple as Fenway being a run-friendly environment, though it surprises me if the effect is that large. For comparison, in 2021 they had a 106 wRC+ (5th in the AL) and 829 runs scored (4th in the AL) while also having the 5th best clutch rating in the AL.
Yeah I don't have a great answer but some options: Maybe they actually had good sequencing in the blowout situations? So it wouldn't show up as clutch or high leverage, but they just strung a few singles together in those moments. Maybe their home / road hitting splits were different across the two years. Or maybe there was something different about how other teams in the AL performed.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on Jan 13, 2023 16:02:06 GMT -5
Incandenza (and remind me to ask you about that handle), I think posters are reluctant to question your projections because they are all within the realm of possibility. I tend to be pessimistic about the 2023 team and while I'd quibble a bit one way or the other about a few of your estimates, I think they're all reasonable. But the error bars for the 2023 team are extraordinarily high. I wouldn't be surprised if Casas, for instance, is an AL All-Star and a 4-5 WAR player. But plenty of young high-potential guys like him make a humbling trip back the bushes before they're ready. That's as possible for Casas as a big season. Given that wide range of outcomes and the series of disappointments over the past year (some of us would call them amateur hour screwups; others would generously say bad luck) people are just not inclined to take the optimistic view. I'm at 75 to 78 wins. I totally agree about the error bars! I don't see why that should lower one's projections though. You might give a team a range of 70-90 wins or you might give them a range of 75-85 wins, but either way you're centering on 80 wins.
Really, though, I have in mind especially those people who say things like "this team won't contend in 2023" or "no need to add good players to this roster because they're so far away from being good." Those people aren't saying the team has wide error bars; they're saying the team will definitely be mediocre or worse.
1. Do you remember the Celtics in the few years before they added KG and Ray Allen? Raffy Devers is your Paul Pierce. A lineup that depends on Alex Verdugo in the middle of the order and then tapers down to the catchers, the (likely) light-hitting SS, and a 2B who was supposed to be a bench guy is a creampuff lineup. I'd list KKH as a bottom-third guy, too, except that he may be hitting second with his lifetime .314 OBP and 97 OPS-plus. 2. I expect massive decline in SS production (not a rocket science observation, I'll grant you) and moderate decline at DH. JDM put up a 117 OPS-plus last year in his age 34-35 season. Justin Turner was at 116 last year and will be playing his age 38 season in '23. Yoshida is an intriguing offensive piece but it sounds like his defense could very well cannibalize whatever offensive WAR he produces, especially if he's in Fenway's RF. He's the 180 from JBJ in RF. 3. I'll say it again: It's silly to count on anything from Sale, who hasn't had a year of durability and good performance in six years. You comfortable counting on Paxton? Kluber is a decent bet for the money. But they lost 3 SPs - Eo, Hill and Wacha, each of whom was some degree of useful last year. 4. It's hard to rate the BP without knowing where Houck and Whitlock will be. If they're both in the rotation, we have three guys we can reasonably depend on: Jansen, Martin and Schreiber. That would have been a lot just a few years ago. It's not great depth in today's game. 1. I know nothing of these "Celtics" you speak of. (Don't really follow other sports.) But you're right, that lineup doesn't exactly seem intimidating. Then again, neither did the Guardians' last year, or the Rays', or even the Yankees' beyond Judge for big stretches last season. And the lineup shouldn't have the serious black holes that it did for stretches last season too.
2. eric handled the DH thing. Yoshida won't be playing in RF, as I understand it. He'll be the left fielder, and if the projections are to be believed he'll be a substantial upgrade over what they had last season at that position. (But big error bars!) And then that allows Verdugo to be an improvement over what they had in RF last year too.
3. It would be silly to count on Sale or Paxton for 180 IP. But it would be equally silly to totally discount them. If they combine for 150 IP, that's like adding one potentially very good starter to the rotation.
Eovaldi, Hill, and Wacha combined for 4.3 fWAR in 360 IP. I think it would be conservative to predict they get the same out of Sale, Paxton, and Kluber combined. So beyond that we have Bello for a full season, Whitlock potentially for a full season, and then MUCH better depth beyond that, with Houck and Crawford as the #7 and #8 pitchers, and Mata/Murphy/Walter later in the season. Big big error bars! But the rotation last season produced 8.6 fWAR in 808 IP with a 4.49 ERA. I frankly think it would be a little unreasonable to project them to be worse than that.
4. Hard to imagine a scenario in which both Houck and Whitlock are in the rotation other than a) both are thriving as starters, in which case that's a good problem to have; or b) there is another huge rash of SP injuries, in which case we're probably into one of the bad-case scenarios for the season anyway.
And again, just as a reality check: the bullpen last season had 1.2 fWAR COMBINED, with a 4.59 ERA. The bar for improvement here is not that high.
...
So no one has challenged the strength of schedule/clutch hitting points, which means, if we're comparing to last season, we can add 3-4 projected wins to the 78 win total. Now we're at 81-82. Could the positional side be a little bit worse than it was last year? That is certainly possible. If you want to lean more negative in that direction knock them down to 80 wins.
But I don't think there is any reasonable projection that has the pitching being worse than it was last year. Even with big error bars, I think the range of likely possibilities (unlikely things happen sometimes, of course) is that they are slightly improved to much improved. If they have, say, a league average pitching staff, that adds about 4 wins from what they had last year. Would you project them for league average pitching? If not, how much worse do you think they'll be?
I tried to go here with the most conservative projections I could muster for a median outcome and I'm at 84 wins.
(Oh, as for the handle... does the Year of the Depend Adult Undergarment mean anything to you?)
1. Paul Pierce was great, a HOFer, in fact! The other guys on those Celtics teams were not good. 2. Do we know for sure Yoshida will be playing LF? Granted, LF is nothing like RF in Fenway, but if he's bad it'll still hurt and offset some his offensive WAR. Remember Hanley in 2015? 3. NO, NO, NO, NO! We have no idea whether either Sale or Paxton will be a "very good starter" for however many innings. Other than the 5.2 innings that Sale threw last year, we last saw him in 2021 when he had some decent outings, but mainly faced off against bad teams. Six of his nine starts were against last-place teams and another one was against the 77-85 Mets. He made three PS starts in '21 and put up FIPs of 15.17, 6.99 and 5.28. He's a 34-year-old guy who last pitched regularly in 2019 before he had to shut it down. Paxton is 33 and also last pitched regularly in 2019. 4. I wouldn't be surprised to see Houck in the BP, though I'd prefer the rotation. The BP will probably be better than last year (low bar). But I wouldn't characterize it as a standout BP. As we know, teams just load up on power arms these days. Also, I enjoyed watching big, filthy Schreiber last year (and I use those adjectives as terms of endearment). But he had no track record before that, so who knows if he's a one-year wonder or will be a nice BP piece for a few years.
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Post by cheers on Jan 13, 2023 21:54:26 GMT -5
So much thoughtful input. So much uncertainty. 76. Do I win?
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Post by briam on Jan 31, 2023 16:59:22 GMT -5
With spring training right around the corner and the roster pretty much finalized (they may make some moves around the margins but would be surprised if there was a big splash coming) I thought I’d look at some gambling lines.
Fanduel has the win total at 78.5 and -110 on both the over and under. +2000 to win division and +310 to make the playoffs (11th best odds in the AL). Casas and Yoshida have the 4th best odds at AL ROTY at +1000.
DraftKings has 77.5 and +1900 with no playoff odds listed.
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Post by jmei on Jan 31, 2023 17:21:33 GMT -5
On this first day of legal Massachusetts sports gambling, I’d hit the over on that one.
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Post by seamus on Jan 31, 2023 21:13:22 GMT -5
I'm glad I live in a state where sports gambling isn't legal because I absolutely would not want to explain to my wife why our boys' college funds depended on the Sox hitting the over.
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Post by levi on Jan 31, 2023 23:30:10 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team.
Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WAR Turner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WAR Duvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WAR Mondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR
Arroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WAR Refsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR Duran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR *Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR
Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WAR
Jansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WAR Brasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 31, 2023 23:55:34 GMT -5
The MLB on Instragram projected the Sox to win the World Series in 2031. And yet some of y'all still don't see the vision, huh? http://instagr.am/p/CnUfxuuL9RY This was done by that World Cup octopus, right?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 1, 2023 0:24:00 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WARTurner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WARDuvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WARMondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WARArroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WARRefsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WARDuran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR*Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WARJansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WARBrasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR I can't say I have any idea how ZIPS works but glory hallelujah does it like our lineup this year.
The bolded numbers would represent career full-season highs in wRC+ or fWAR (which I assume ZIPS uses, as it's a FG model). Look back at any team that won the WS and you'll find a handful of regulars who had career years and that's exactly what this is saying. As an example, look at the 2018 Red Sox vs. the 2019 Red Sox. Same guys, much different results. One team had everyone peaking, the other had everyone slumping. Similar story for 2021 vs. 2022 (although with a lot more pitching health vs. injuries).
Granted, for guys like Yoshida, Bello, Casas, we should probably expect career highs, esp. in fWAR but those are just the tip of the iceberg.
In short, those numbers are hilariously optimistic. But hey, Szymborski has been doing it for a long time and I have no idea what's in his sauce...
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Post by jmei on Feb 1, 2023 8:35:40 GMT -5
The ZiPS secret sauce is a heavy dose of player comps, along with the inclusion of Statcast data in recent years. Here's Szymborski explaining the methodology ( link):
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 1, 2023 9:26:04 GMT -5
ZIPS
Niko Kavadas: 118 G, 20 HR, 112 wRC+
Hickey: 111 wRC+
I’d like to live in their world please
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 1, 2023 9:34:34 GMT -5
ZIPS Niko Kavadas: 118 G, 20 HR, 112 wRC+ Hickey: 111 wRC+ I’d like to live in their world please By those metrics they should have just ran with Niko at DH and used the Turner money elsewhere. Alas I think we all can probably take a look at those projections and disregard them as being reasonable.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2023 9:40:00 GMT -5
ZIPS Niko Kavadas: 118 G, 20 HR, 112 wRC+ Hickey: 111 wRC+ I’d like to live in their world please I wonder if the silly projections for minor leagues are a product of the player comp methodology? Like maybe this is saying: "in a world in which Kavadas makes a huge jump to the majors, he would be most like these other guys who made a huge jump to the majors," and that would probably be a very impressive list of guys. But of course in most worlds Kavadas doesn't make it to the majors at all in 2023.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Feb 1, 2023 10:42:16 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WAR Turner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WAR Duvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WAR Mondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR Arroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WAR Refsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR Duran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR *Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WAR Jansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WAR Brasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR I suppose I could go look at this myself, but are every other team's projections this wildly optimistic? If these were optimistic projections relative to somewhat muted projections everywhere else I'd think oh maybe there's something to this, but if every team is projected to pretty much have a lineup full of above-average hitters, it defeats the purpose of calling it above "average".
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Post by flourcitydoughboy on Feb 1, 2023 10:46:20 GMT -5
Tied for second for number of hitters with a wRC+ greater than 100. Sox had 12.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 1, 2023 10:51:43 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WAR Turner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WAR Duvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WAR Mondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR Arroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WAR Refsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR Duran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR *Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WARJansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WAR Brasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR I know it's just a projection system probably having Bello with limited innings pitched but I'm pretty certain if Bello can stay healthy and manage a 3.63 FIP his WAR is going to be higher than 1.5. As I've said in other posts on Bello, he pitched 152 innings in 2022 between the minors and majors. In my mind he doesn't really need to have his innings limited anymore than any other SP on the roster. In fact based off his IP total in 2022 I don't see why he couldn't be number 2 behind only Pivetta on the Sox in IP for 2023. Zips projection on fangraphs shows him at 135.3 IP which barring injury there's no reason to think he won't build upon the 152 innings he pitched in 2022.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 1, 2023 10:59:55 GMT -5
Duvall having a 117 wRC+ would dramatically change the outlook of this year’s team in my eyes, but I’m very curious to see how ZIPS got to that number.
Anyone else sick of February already? Lets skip to March
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2023 11:13:53 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WAR Turner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WAR Duvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WAR Mondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR Arroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WAR Refsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR Duran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR *Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WAR Jansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WAR Brasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR I suppose I could go look at this myself, but are every other team's projections this wildly optimistic? If these were optimistic projections relative to somewhat muted projections everywhere else I'd think oh maybe there's something to this, but if every team is projected to pretty much have a lineup full of above-average hitters, it defeats the purpose of calling it above "average". I did a quick scan of a lot of the AL teams, and it looks like for total WAR the Yankees are first at ~57, Toronto and Houston both in the low 50s, and then a big clump (SEA/LAA/TEX/TB/CLE/MIN/BOS) in the 46-48 range, but Boston closer to the top of that range than the bottom.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 1, 2023 11:16:34 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WAR Turner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WAR Duvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WAR Mondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR Arroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WAR Refsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR Duran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR *Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WAR Jansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WAR Brasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR So these are obviously pretty high overall, and I'm not going to check every team to see if there's an overall positive bias (my guess is there is a positive bias, similar to the FGDC projections), but if not this would project as about a 95 win team. Some over/unders I'll take on the projected WARs (not doing the whole list): Over: Devers, Bello, Schreiber, Houck Under: Hernandez, Mondesi, Duran, Rodriguez
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Post by Oregon Norm on Feb 1, 2023 11:42:09 GMT -5
I'll chime in here. I think I understand a lot of this and yes, some of the estimates may be on the low side. For Hernandez, it's simple: the projection is that he'll be playing shortstop for much of the time. The wRC+ is in keeping with his numbers in the past when he's been on the field. The difference is probably because he is at SS. Wong should also be included in the list of new those who will get more playing time so that's not surplrising. For Whitlock it's very simple: they project him as a starter as many on the board have done. So he'll generate a lot more value than in the past. His estimate may be low. I think Casas' is low also, but that's just my optimism about the guy. The projection for Duvall is probably similar - that he sees a lot of action in CF and that's a valuable position. The health thing is the big question of course.
As for Devers, that's about as trivial an increase as we'd expect given his past numbers. Excluding his rookie year and setting aside the weirdness of 2020 his wRC+ numbers are 90, 132, 133, 141 and Zips has him at ... 143! That may be low. I'm an optimist about Yoshida also. Fangraphs knocked his OPS down by 100 points, cut his BB/K ratio in half (it's still greater than 1) and this is how his projection looks. Mondesi may be high but it's not because of his hitting. Zips probably has him playing more than may happen given his recuperation. Again, he's at a valuable position and that probably plays into it. Same for McGuire - he's valuable for the defense less for his hitting.
I'd also agree that Bello may be undervalued. If he stays healthy and pitches 25-30 games, it's easy to see him exceeding 2 WAR. The estimate for Verdugo may be high. Again, health is going to play a role. As for Duran, if he's only projected to be worth .4 WAR it's hard to see how that's an outlier. That's not much value.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2023 11:42:56 GMT -5
One thing implied by these numbers: it would be really hard at this point to improve this roster on the position player side. No matter who you added, you'd be displacing a 2+ WAR player, and even the bench (save Duran) is composed of average or better players. The bullpen also looks fully stocked. (When Houck has the *worst* projection of the bunch you have to feel pretty good...)
The rotation, on the other hand, could conceivably be improved. I wouldn't rule out a trade in that department.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 1, 2023 11:52:00 GMT -5
One thing implied by these numbers: it would be really hard at this point to improve this roster on the position player side. No matter who you added, you'd be displacing a 2+ WAR player, and even the bench (save Duran) is composed of average or better players. The bullpen also looks fully stocked. (When Houck has the *worst* projection of the bunch you have to feel pretty good...) The rotation, on the other hand, could conceivably be improved. I wouldn't rule out a trade in that department.I agree the rotation could be improved but to do so they'd have to add at least a bonafide #3 starter or better. In my mind they have enough guys who can be 4-5 starters in Pivetta, Kluber, Paxton, Bello and Whitlock so trading for someone in that tier wouldn't really do much in my eyes to upgrade the staff. Bello and Whitlock have much higher upside than that but for now I'll lump them in there until they prove it over the course of a full season. So while I wouldn't necessarily rule out a trade, I don't see it happening. Teams don't give away #3 starters and I don't see one coming over without giving up something like Rafaela or Bleis as the headliner and then some. Personally I'd be perfectly content going into the season with the possible rotation pieces currently assembled.
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Post by Guidas on Feb 1, 2023 11:56:15 GMT -5
Duvall having a 117 wRC+ would dramatically change the outlook of this year’s team in my eyes, but I’m very curious to see how ZIPS got to that number. Anyone else sick of February already? Lets skip to March Pitchers and catchers in 2 weeks!
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