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2023 Red Sox Win Projection
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Post by Guidas on Feb 1, 2023 12:05:24 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WAR Turner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WAR Duvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WAR Mondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR Arroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WAR Refsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR Duran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR *Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WAR Jansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WAR Brasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR Just doing non-relievers, but the players in bold lost significant playing time last year because of injury. Not saying that this will occur again, but it does make some of these ZiPS projections...very optimistic. Also, in terms of aging curve, this line-up has a lot of age-related risk/hope/magical thinking. If it all comes together this will be an exceptional season. If old guys/last year's injury guys miss significant time again, this will be ugly.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2023 12:07:09 GMT -5
One thing implied by these numbers: it would be really hard at this point to improve this roster on the position player side. No matter who you added, you'd be displacing a 2+ WAR player, and even the bench (save Duran) is composed of average or better players. The bullpen also looks fully stocked. (When Houck has the *worst* projection of the bunch you have to feel pretty good...) The rotation, on the other hand, could conceivably be improved. I wouldn't rule out a trade in that department.I agree the rotation could be improved but to do so they'd have to add at least a bonafide #3 starter or better. In my mind they have enough guys who can be 4-5 starters in Pivetta, Kluber, Paxton, Bello and Whitlock so trading for someone in that tier wouldn't really do much in my eyes to upgrade the staff. Bello and Whitlock have much higher upside than that but for now I'll lump them in there until they prove it over the course of a full season. So while I wouldn't necessarily rule out a trade, I don't see it happening. Teams don't give away #3 starters and I don't see one coming over without giving up something like Rafaela or Bleis as the headliner and then some. Personally I'd be perfectly content going into the season with the possible rotation pieces currently assembled. Yeah, maybe this would be more likely as a deadline trade. They're still in a weird place for pulling off a trade, though, in that their best prospects are either perfect fits for what the team needs either this year or next (Bello, Casas, Rafaela) or else are lower in the system but would be really hard to part with (Mayer, Bleis). I could see major leaguers getting moved (Duran, Dalbec, Arroyo, Verdugo, Pivetta) but again it's tough to see how those could be turned into upgrades without opening up new holes. (Even someone like Dalbec is pretty important to the Red Sox as Casas/Turner/Devers insurance.)
ADD: Well I looked through the rosters of all the noncompetitive teams and saw precisely zero promising SP trade targets; the only pitchers who would meaningfully upgrade the Red Sox' rotation are too young and cheap for those teams to trade them. I think it's ride or die with the group they got.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 1, 2023 12:11:43 GMT -5
I donât think itâs been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) â 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) â 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) â 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WARTurner (DH) â 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) â 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WARDuvall (CF) â 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) â 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WARMondesi (2B) â 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) â 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WARArroyo (UT) â 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WARRefsnyder (OF) â 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) â 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WARDuran (OF) â 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR*Story (IF) â 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) â 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) â 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) â 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) â 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) â 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) â 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WARJansen (CL) â 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) â 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) â 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) â 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) â 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WARBrasier (MID) â 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) â 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) â 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR I can't say I have any idea how ZIPS works but glory hallelujah does it like our lineup this year.
The bolded numbers would represent career full-season highs in wRC+ or fWAR (which I assume ZIPS uses, as it's a FG model). Look back at any team that won the WS and you'll find a handful of regulars who had career years and that's exactly what this is saying. As an example, look at the 2018 Red Sox vs. the 2019 Red Sox. Same guys, much different results. One team had everyone peaking, the other had everyone slumping. Similar story for 2021 vs. 2022 (although with a lot more pitching health vs. injuries).
Granted, for guys like Yoshida, Bello, Casas, we should probably expect career highs, esp. in fWAR but those are just the tip of the iceberg.
In short, those numbers are hilariously optimistic. But hey, Szymborski has been doing it for a long time and I have no idea what's in his sauce...
A couple of your bolded rows seem off to me - Devers had 6.7 fWAR in 2019, Kiké had 3.9 in 2021. Then there's guys like Verdugo and Mondesi who have been above both their wRC+ and WAR projections at a rate basis in seasons they were playing full time that were either cut short due to COVID or injuries, and ZiPS isn't a playing time estimator. McGuire had 1.6 fWAR in half a season last year and Arroyo had 1 win in 60 games in 2021. Wong, Yoshida, Casas and Duran are all new guys so yes full season career highs but they've also never had full MLB seasons. Overall the numbers are optimistic I think because they're on the high end for most players, including from a playing time sense, but none of them are shocking based on career performance I think (Turner and Duvall's wRC+'s seem the highest above expectation to me just given aging trends). Also, one thing ZiPS does that I'm not sure other projection systems do is it takes injury data into account. I have no idea how it plays into the model, but that's a possible explanation for Mondesi, Duvall, Devers having wRC+ projections higher than their last season of playing time, which in all three cases were hampered by injuries.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 1, 2023 12:16:59 GMT -5
I don’t think it’s been discussed, but ZiPS projections are now published on Fangraphs for each player. It seems pretty high on most of the offseason acquisitions and suggests sneaky potential for the 2023 team. Yoshida (LF) — 137 wRC+ / 3.4 WAR Hernandez (SS) — 106 wRC+ / 3.9 WAR (!) Devers (3B) — 143 wRC+ / 5.1 WAR Turner (DH) — 126 wRC+ / 2.3 WAR Verdugo (RF) — 120 wRC+ / 3.1 WAR Duvall (CF) — 117 wRC+ / 2.2 WAR Casas (1B) — 121 wRC+ / 2.1 WAR Mondesi (2B) — 91 wRC+ / 3.0 WAR (!) McGuire (C) — 93 wRC+ / 1.7 WAR Arroyo (UT) — 105 wRC+ / 1.4 WAR Refsnyder (OF) — 115 wRC+ / 0.6 WAR Wong (C) — 103 wRC+ / 0.9 WAR Duran (OF) — 97 wRC+ / 0.4 WAR *Story (IF) — 118 wRC+ / 1.9 WAR Sale (SP) — 3.53 FIP / 2.2 WAR Kluber (SP) — 4.14 FIP / 1.9 WAR Pivetta (SP) — 4.41 FIP / 1.4 WAR Paxton (SP) — 3.87 FIP / 1.6 WAR Whitlock (SP) — 3.21 FIP / 3.5 WAR (!) Bello (SP) — 3.63 FIP / 1.5 WAR Jansen (CL) — 3.59 FIP / 0.8 WAR Martin (SU) — 3.36 FIP / 0.6 WAR Schreiber (SU) — 3.56 FIP / 0.7 WAR Houck (MID) — 4.08 FIP / 0.3 WAR Rodriguez (MID) — 3.07 FIP / 0.9 WAR Brasier (MID) — 3.99 FIP / 0.1 WAR Bleier (MID) — 3.67 FIP / 0.2 WAR Mills (MID) — 3.93 FIP / 0.1 WAR Just doing non-relievers, but the players in bold lost significant playing time last year because of injury. Not saying that this will occur again, but it does make some of these ZiPS projections...very optimistic. Also, in terms of aging curve, this line-up has a lot of age-related risk/hope/magical thinking. If it all comes together this will be an exceptional season. If old guys/last year's injury guys miss significant time again, this will be ugly. FYI most of these already have lower than full season PT factored in (Arroyo's 1.4 is over 70 games, Story's 1.9 is over 71 games, Mondesi's is over 104 games, Turner at 128 games, Duvall at 104, Hernandez at 130, Paxton and Sale each projected at 133 IP). Not to say they'll all hit even those marks (would be surprised if Sale and Paxton both get there), but I'll take the over for Arroyo, Turner and Duvall at least.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Feb 1, 2023 12:57:59 GMT -5
83 wins
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 1, 2023 13:13:22 GMT -5
I agree the rotation could be improved but to do so they'd have to add at least a bonafide #3 starter or better. In my mind they have enough guys who can be 4-5 starters in Pivetta, Kluber, Paxton, Bello and Whitlock so trading for someone in that tier wouldn't really do much in my eyes to upgrade the staff. Bello and Whitlock have much higher upside than that but for now I'll lump them in there until they prove it over the course of a full season. So while I wouldn't necessarily rule out a trade, I don't see it happening. Teams don't give away #3 starters and I don't see one coming over without giving up something like Rafaela or Bleis as the headliner and then some. Personally I'd be perfectly content going into the season with the possible rotation pieces currently assembled. Yeah, maybe this would be more likely as a deadline trade. They're still in a weird place for pulling off a trade, though, in that their best prospects are either perfect fits for what the team needs either this year or next (Bello, Casas, Rafaela) or else are lower in the system but would be really hard to part with (Mayer, Bleis). I could see major leaguers getting moved (Duran, Dalbec, Arroyo, Verdugo, Pivetta) but again it's tough to see how those could be turned into upgrades without opening up new holes. (Even someone like Dalbec is pretty important to the Red Sox as Casas/Turner/Devers insurance.)
ADD: Well I looked through the rosters of all the noncompetitive teams and saw precisely zero promising SP trade targets; the only pitchers who would meaningfully upgrade the Red Sox' rotation are too young and cheap for those teams to trade them. I think it's ride or die with the group they got.
Yes, a deadline move could be in the cards and who knows by then with injuries and what not they very well could be in the market for a 4-5 starter type. As you said it's really hard for me to foresee the type of deal to bring in a true rotation upgrade as things stand right now. As you state the guys in the upper minors or ML roster with the type of value who could bring in one of those type of arms are all direct needs for the Sox right now. Then you'd be talking about Mayer or Bleis as the focal point of a trade which would sting and not something I'd be rooting for. Best case scenario is the guys in the 5-15 range start to get some real helium this season and allow them to deal from that group rather than the real top of the top in the system. Guys like Yorke, Mata, Romero, Roman Anthony, Luis Perales and perhaps Walter with a good few months in the minors could certainly turn into the type of players who could bring back the type of pitching we're talking about. This is some of the most intrigue I've had going into a Sox season in a while. Literally don't know what to expect from the ML team in terms of W-L but I do feel like this could be one of the more fun years to follow the farm in recent memory.
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Post by notstarboard on Feb 1, 2023 13:14:54 GMT -5
I've never bet on sports in my life, but I pulled on a thread from a comment elsewhere and found out that Sportsbook RI has the Sox win total this year set at 77.5. Trying to find reasons not to slap a few hundred on that I'd guess 77 wins are no higher than a 20th percentile outcome for this team. That line feels like free money. I don't have an account to check, but per a blog post I saw Draft Kings is at 84.5 or 85.5, which feels a lot more reasonable.
Edit: I actually attempted to make a bet tonight. Was going to do $324 on the over, $2 per regular season game. Sportsbook RI is the worst digital product I have used in years. Errors throughout the process, from account creation to location services to linking a bank account; basically nothing worked. Ended up just giving up after 45 minutes of fighting with it... I suppose I won't be able to put my money where my mouth is, but oh well. Playing good baseball will be plenty satisfying enough!
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 1, 2023 13:17:55 GMT -5
I've never bet on sports in my life, but I pulled on a thread from a comment elsewhere and found out that Sportsbook RI has the Sox win total this year set at 77.5. Trying to find reasons not to slap a few hundred on that I'd guess 77 wins are no higher than a 20th percentile outcome for this team. That line feels like free money. I don't have an account to check, but per a blog post I saw Draft Kings is at 84.5 or 85.5, which feels a lot more reasonable. FanDuel is at 78.5 right now, I think DK is also at 77.5. Agree the totals feel low, but it makes sense given the team had 78 wins last year and the public perception is they had a bad off-season and the public is also not really going to factor in injuries last season.
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2023 13:25:37 GMT -5
I've never bet on sports in my life, but I pulled on a thread from a comment elsewhere and found out that Sportsbook RI has the Sox win total this year set at 77.5. Trying to find reasons not to slap a few hundred on that I'd guess 77 wins are no higher than a 20th percentile outcome for this team. That line feels like free money. I don't have an account to check, but per a blog post I saw Draft Kings is at 84.5 or 85.5, which feels a lot more reasonable. Anyone want to float me a couple million to bet the over at Sportsbook RI and the under at Draft Kings?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 1, 2023 13:35:28 GMT -5
I've never bet on sports in my life, but I pulled on a thread from a comment elsewhere and found out that Sportsbook RI has the Sox win total this year set at 77.5. Trying to find reasons not to slap a few hundred on that I'd guess 77 wins are no higher than a 20th percentile outcome for this team. That line feels like free money. I don't have an account to check, but per a blog post I saw Draft Kings is at 84.5 or 85.5, which feels a lot more reasonable. FanDuel is at 78.5 right now, I think DK is also at 77.5. Agree the totals feel low, but it makes sense given the team had 78 wins last year and the public perception is they had a bad off-season and the public is also not really going to factor in injuries last season. They lost Xander, JD Martinez and now Story for much of this season while adding Yoshida, Turner and Casas. To me, that's a slight downgrade on offense. Pitching they got a great performance from Wacha, decent from Rich Hill, and a solid year from Eovaldi. They're replacing Eovaldi with Kluber who is older and overall probably consider that a wash and a bunch of question marks with Bello (arguably has ace potential), Whitlock who I think doesn't look the same as a starter, Sale and Paxton who both have barely pitched the last few years to which Paxton was terrible in that limited time he did (probably injury related). That rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes. The bullpen I won't even begin to guess. Brasier or Ort could probably win best non-closer reliever or be DFA'd by June. Seems like the nature of the position. Jansen is a much needed addition, but him needing to vastly speed up his delivery is concerning. I'd give an edge to this year vs last year. Even with Whitlock moving into a starting role. Overall, it's not overly surprising that they would be predicted to be around the same. Especially if the Yankees are still good and Tampa, Baltimore and Toronto all improve.
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Post by scottysmalls on Feb 1, 2023 13:43:19 GMT -5
FanDuel is at 78.5 right now, I think DK is also at 77.5. Agree the totals feel low, but it makes sense given the team had 78 wins last year and the public perception is they had a bad off-season and the public is also not really going to factor in injuries last season. They lost Xander, JD Martinez and now Story for much of this season while adding Yoshida, Turner and Casas. To me, that's a slight downgrade on offense. Pitching they got a great performance from Wacha, decent from Rich Hill, and a solid year from Eovaldi. They're replacing Eovaldi with Kluber who is older and overall probably consider that a wash and a bunch of question marks with Bello (arguably has ace potential), Whitlock who I think doesn't look the same as a starter, Sale and Paxton who both have barely pitched the last few years to which Paxton was terrible in that limited time he did (probably injury related). That rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes. The bullpen I won't even begin to guess. Brasier or Ort could probably win best non-closer reliever or be DFA'd by June. Seems like the nature of the position. Jansen is a much needed addition, but him needing to vastly speed up his delivery is concerning. I'd give an edge to this year vs last year. Even with Whitlock moving into a starting role. Overall, it's not overly surprising that they would be predicted to be around the same. Especially if the Yankees are still good and Tampa, Baltimore and Toronto all improve. Not interested in debating on whether they're better or not right now, but I'll just say that over/under win totals are not the same as predicted wins. They're based on where the odds makers think they can make the most money.
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keninten
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Post by keninten on Feb 1, 2023 13:52:04 GMT -5
Duvall having a 117 wRC+ would dramatically change the outlook of this year’s team in my eyes, but I’m very curious to see how ZIPS got to that number. Anyone else sick of February already? Lets skip to March I`ve been looking forward to February. Want to see Paxton and Sale just report and start throwing.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Feb 1, 2023 19:32:04 GMT -5
They lost Xander, JD Martinez and now Story for much of this season while adding Yoshida, Turner and Casas. To me, that's a slight downgrade on offense. Pitching they got a great performance from Wacha, decent from Rich Hill, and a solid year from Eovaldi. They're replacing Eovaldi with Kluber who is older and overall probably consider that a wash and a bunch of question marks with Bello (arguably has ace potential), Whitlock who I think doesn't look the same as a starter, Sale and Paxton who both have barely pitched the last few years to which Paxton was terrible in that limited time he did (probably injury related). That rotation has a wide range of possible outcomes. The bullpen I won't even begin to guess. Brasier or Ort could probably win best non-closer reliever or be DFA'd by June. Seems like the nature of the position. Jansen is a much needed addition, but him needing to vastly speed up his delivery is concerning. I'd give an edge to this year vs last year. Even with Whitlock moving into a starting role. Overall, it's not overly surprising that they would be predicted to be around the same. Especially if the Yankees are still good and Tampa, Baltimore and Toronto all improve. Not interested in debating on whether they're better or not right now, but I'll just say that over/under win totals are not the same as predicted wins. They're based on where the odds makers think they can make the most money. I did forget Duvall, but we'll see on him. I'm just stating that given that the offense likely took a hit and the pitching has a wide range of various outcomes with a likelihood of being as good as last year, plus the overall age of the guys they're bringing in, it makes sense that they would set the over/under at roughly the same as last year even if they're not factoring the unlucky amount of injuries they had. There's a chance the Red Sox are the oldest team in baseball next year. They're going to have injuries again. Wouldn't that qualify as a rough projection as they're setting the betting line at that number? www.bostonherald.com/2023/01/19/mastrodonato-2023-red-sox-could-be-the-oldest-team-in-mlb-but-thats-not-a-bad-thing/
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 1, 2023 19:52:48 GMT -5
well guys i put $3000 on 76.5 last month and just dropped another $2000 today on over 77.5. So when we get our 78th win lets all go grab some beers on me.
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Post by julyanmorley on Feb 1, 2023 19:57:09 GMT -5
Is there a way to see how many total WAR ZiPS Depth Chart is projecting for the league? There's only 1000 WAR in the league by definition, my guess is they're projecting for well more than that. Steamer is projecting something like 1300 WAR.
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Post by jmei on Feb 1, 2023 20:07:38 GMT -5
Not interested in debating on whether they're better or not right now, but I'll just say that over/under win totals are not the same as predicted wins. They're based on where the odds makers think they can make the most money. I did forget Duvall, but we'll see on him. I'm just stating that given that the offense likely took a hit and the pitching has a wide range of various outcomes with a likelihood of being as good as last year, plus the overall age of the guys they're bringing in, it makes sense that they would set the over/under at roughly the same as last year even if they're not factoring the unlucky amount of injuries they had. There's a chance the Red Sox are the oldest team in baseball next year. They're going to have injuries again. Wouldn't that qualify as a rough projection as they're setting the betting line at that number? www.bostonherald.com/2023/01/19/mastrodonato-2023-red-sox-could-be-the-oldest-team-in-mlb-but-thats-not-a-bad-thing/I disagree that the offense takes a hit next year. They were very much a stars and scrubs group of position players last year. They got excellent seasons from Devers, Bogaerts and the catchers, and Story was OK, but just about everyone else who got major playing time was mediocre to worse. Bradley gave them 290 PAs of .210/.257/.321 (58 wRC+), Duran gave them 223 PAs of .221/.283/.363 (78 wRC+) and Dalbec gave them 353 PAs of .215/.283/.369 (80 wRC+). They received a total of 1,754 PAs (equivalent to three full-time spots) worth of below replacement level production (totaling -3.3 fWAR) from Dalbec, Hosmer, Almonte, Pham, Cordero, Arauz, Bradley, Downs, Duran, Sanchez, Plawecki and Shaw, of whom only Dalbec and Duran are still in the organization. Just replacing those plate appearances with run of the mill replacement level plate appearances gives them a huge leg up already, and I think we tend to think their bench players are a tad better than that. I would also expect better performances out of Hernandez and Verdugo, both of whom hit unnaturally poorly last year. Meanwhile, who do you project to hit worse? Maybe Devers, but I imagine we generally have high hopes of a repeat performance. Definitely McGuire and Refsnyder, though neither guy played all that much last year (108 and 177 PAs, respectively).
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Post by incandenza on Feb 1, 2023 20:37:43 GMT -5
One exercise that might help people to feel more optimistic about next season is to just scroll through the schedule. It's littered with those silly little NL teams that always stink, from Belts both Rust and Sun. And none of those brutal 18-in-a-row stretches against AL East rivals.
(August is going to be a heck of a whiplash month though: 10 in a row against KC/DET/WAS, followed by 13 in a row against NYY/HOU/LAD/HOU.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 1, 2023 20:44:27 GMT -5
well guys i put $3000 on 76.5 last month and just dropped another $2000 today on over 77.5. So when we get our 78th win lets all go grab some beers on me. Must be nice to have pocket change like that to gamble with.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Feb 1, 2023 21:56:55 GMT -5
well guys i put $3000 on 76.5 last month and just dropped another $2000 today on over 77.5. So when we get our 78th win lets all go grab some beers on me. Independent bookie? No Sportsbook is taking that much on a prop
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Post by bosoxnation on Feb 1, 2023 21:59:19 GMT -5
well guys i put $3000 on 76.5 last month and just dropped another $2000 today on over 77.5. So when we get our 78th win lets all go grab some beers on me. Independent bookie? No Sportsbook is taking that much on a prop I live in Vegas.
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Post by dirtdog on Feb 1, 2023 22:13:58 GMT -5
I see around 75 wins but what do I know. I dont see the roster as better than last year at this point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Feb 1, 2023 22:21:40 GMT -5
Independent bookie? No Sportsbook is taking that much on a prop I live in Vegas. I'd have put about $1000 on a longer line maybe 87 wins. I think the industry is underestimating the impact of the new rules. ADD: I don't see where any of the projection systems have taken that into account. ADD2: When they lowered the mound in 1968, MLB ERA rose from 2.98 to 3.61. Projection systems don't take that stuff into consideration. That's more than 20%, huge difference.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 1, 2023 23:06:24 GMT -5
well guys i put $3000 on 76.5 last month and just dropped another $2000 today on over 77.5. So when we get our 78th win lets all go grab some beers on me. Independent bookie? No Sportsbook is taking that much on a prop Sportsbooks are definitely fine taking large bets on props that don't come due for 8 months. The longer they hold it, the more they make.
EDIT: As someone who lived in Reno for 13 years, my 8-month, pre-season play was usually shopping for extra-long odds on a dark horse I liked to win the pennant (I heard the Sox were +3000 a few weeks ago). If they made it to the LCS (which only meant winning one best-of-five series and maybe a WC game before last year), you could hedge in the LCS and basically cut a 30:1 shot into a guaranteed win of about 12-15x your original bet. Fun when it hits, esp. with the Sox. If it doesn't, it's a $30-$50 bet you made 8 months ago. I also liked to bet both sides of a baseball or hockey series when a home team lost the first game. If you could get that first-game loser at + odds for the series before the second game, you could turn around and get + odds on the other team for the series after it evened up in game 2, which they so often do. Not a huge payday but a good feeling.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Feb 1, 2023 23:19:45 GMT -5
I can't say I have any idea how ZIPS works but glory hallelujah does it like our lineup this year.
The bolded numbers would represent career full-season highs in wRC+ or fWAR (which I assume ZIPS uses, as it's a FG model). Look back at any team that won the WS and you'll find a handful of regulars who had career years and that's exactly what this is saying. As an example, look at the 2018 Red Sox vs. the 2019 Red Sox. Same guys, much different results. One team had everyone peaking, the other had everyone slumping. Similar story for 2021 vs. 2022 (although with a lot more pitching health vs. injuries).
Granted, for guys like Yoshida, Bello, Casas, we should probably expect career highs, esp. in fWAR but those are just the tip of the iceberg.
In short, those numbers are hilariously optimistic. But hey, Szymborski has been doing it for a long time and I have no idea what's in his sauce...
A couple of your bolded rows seem off to me - Devers had 6.7 fWAR in 2019, Kiké had 3.9 in 2021. Then there's guys like Verdugo and Mondesi who have been above both their wRC+ and WAR projections at a rate basis in seasons they were playing full time that were either cut short due to COVID or injuries, and ZiPS isn't a playing time estimator. McGuire had 1.6 fWAR in half a season last year and Arroyo had 1 win in 60 games in 2021. Wong, Yoshida, Casas and Duran are all new guys so yes full season career highs but they've also never had full MLB seasons. Overall the numbers are optimistic I think because they're on the high end for most players, including from a playing time sense, but none of them are shocking based on career performance I think (Turner and Duvall's wRC+'s seem the highest above expectation to me just given aging trends). Also, one thing ZiPS does that I'm not sure other projection systems do is it takes injury data into account. I have no idea how it plays into the model, but that's a possible explanation for Mondesi, Duvall, Devers having wRC+ projections higher than their last season of playing time, which in all three cases were hampered by injuries. My bad on Raffy and Enrique's career-high fWARs. It was a lot of bouncing around FG pages...
I still think the numbers are high but maybe Szymborski and Chaim have similar sauce recipes and we got guys that Zips likes.
If they're right, I'll be cheering them on all year. I'm just very not confident that so many guys are going to approach or exceed their career years.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 2, 2023 9:45:49 GMT -5
Analytics guru Eno Sarris at The Athletic puts it in perspective pretty well: "Projections do have the Red Sox leading the league in one thing right now. They have the most players in baseball with a wide gap between their best-case and worst-case outcomes. [...] After counting how many players on each team have a 40-point gap in their [projected best case and worst case] league- and park-adjusted OPS (known as OPS+), the Red Sox floated to the top by a large margin." theathletic.com/4131947/2023/02/02/red-sox-volatilite-roster/This is why hacks like Dan Shaughnessy and Jason Mastrodonato can write columns this week confidently predicting the season will be a disaster, because it's easiest to assume the worst case scenario plays out. We frankly don't know! The "error bars", as Chris mentioned on the podcast, could just as easily break positively as they did in 2021, when media consensus was that all of our pitchers would get hurt and acquisitions like Kiké/Renfroe/etc wouldn't amount to much. (For the record, when my $25 bet on the Sox to win the World Series at +8000 pays off, I'm giving all the winnings to charity.)
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